Sickels: Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2014

[torontoaces04]

Not sure if this deserved it's own thread, but with it being slow around here, I figured what the heck! I'm sure it'll make for some good discussion.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/18/5299592/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2014

Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2014

1) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade A-: Outstanding stuff, still has some command issues to work through, but A-ball hitters were generally helpless against his power sinker when he wasn’t walking them too often. I think he will need at least a year in the high minors and maybe two but if it all pans out he’s a number two starter.

2) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-. Not really concerned about the height "issue" given his combination of stuff and command. At worst he’ll have a great career as a reliever and at best he’s a number two starter.

3) Mitch Nay, 3B, Grade B: Aggressive grade for rookie ball player but I believe in this bat. Good power potential, has some pure hitting skills, controls the zone reasonably and avoids strikeouts. Needs more defensive polish but bat can be special.

4) Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B: I had him as a B- a year ago despite a rough ’12 season, so a more effective ’13 moves him up a notch. Chance to be a four-pitch starter if his command continues to sharpen.

5) Sean Nolin, LHP, Grade B: Aside from his bad spot start in the majors, he had another strong year. I had him as a Grade B pre-season and he pitched well enough in Double-A/Triple-A to maintain that. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Sanchez, Stroman, or Norris, but he’s deceptive enough to be a major league starter, at least a #4.

6) Franklin Barreto, SS, Grade B-: High-ceiling player with great tools, big-bonus pedigree ($1,450,000) and resultant hype, played very well in Gulf Coast League (.299/.368/.529) but overmatched after moving up to Appy League (.204/.259/.333). He’s only 17 so that is not damning at his point, but it does indicate risk. Would rank ahead of Nolin on pure upside alone but I want to see how adjustment goes at higher levels. With skill growth he could be at the top of this list next year.

7) D.J. Davis, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Like Barreto, Davis is very toolsy featuring speed and raw power, but there are still questions about his bat after a .240/.323/.418 line with 76 strikeouts in 225 at-bats in Appy League. Most scouts like him better than Nay due to superior athleticism, but for me, Nay is a better bet as a hitter.

From this point on, you can throw most of these guys into a hat and come up with a logical ranking. With the huge amount of Grade C+ in this system, it is a matter of taste.

8) Alberto Tirado, RHP, Grade C+: Up to 96-98 MPH in rookie ball although erratic secondary pitches and some command issues kept his strikeout rate below one-per-inning despite the velocity. Scouts say he can become a number two or three starter but he’ll need patient development. Like Barreto and several others, he could vault up the grade rankings with a strong ’14.

9) Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade C+: Tough to rank since he will miss most or all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery and recovery isn’t automatic for everyone. Good command of fastball/slider/changeup arsenal impressed Midwest League sources before he got hurt.

10) Dawel Lugo, SS, Grade C+: First-class tools on par with Barreto’s I think, but I can’t get behind six walks in 270 plate appearances in short-season ball. Young enough at age 19 to develop of course, but I want performance proof on this one.

11) Andy Burns, INF, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect who woke up, hitting .288/.346/.470 with 15 homers, 33 steals between High-A and Double-A, has always had decent tools but did a better job using them last year. Seems ideally-suited for utility job and has a better bat than most bench guys. For short-term fantasy purposes he would rank higher than this.

12) Tom Robson, RHP, Grade C+: I don’t know that he’ll rank as high on other lists, but like I said, a matter of taste. Robson has a strong sinker and changeup, throws strikes, and posted a 1.12 ERA with a 3.48 GO/AO in short-season ball. He needs better breaking stuff but I like the basics to build on here.

13) John Stilson, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like he’s ready for a full major league bullpen trial. Should be a solid relief asset and might get a shot at closing down the line.

14) A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade C+: Defense should keep him around for a long time. Line drive hitter with mediocre on-base skills. Can he develop more power?

15) Jairo Labourt, LHP, Grade C+: Fine campaign in Appalachian League (1.92 ERA, 45/14 K/BB in 52 innings) due to impressive sinker. Secondary pitches generate mixed reports, but he throws strikes and has a chance to breakout.

16) Chase DeJong, RHP, Grade C+: Another solid performer at Bluefield, 3.05 ERA with 66/10 K/BB in 56 innings with low-90s fastball and good curve. And another breakout candidate; the Jays should have a really intriguing rotation in Low-A this year.

17) Dwight Smith, OF, Grade C+: Line drive hitter still reminds me of his dad, and he hit like him last year against right-handers (.310/.386/.426) in Low-A. However he needs to figure out lefties (.196/.297/.258) to be more than a fourth outfielder.

18) L.B. Dantzler, 1B, Grade C+: Sort of a Cardinals-style pick here, a 14th round college hitter from a major program (South Carolina) with a polished bat and performance record but limited physical tools. Crushed Northwest League pitching (.302/.385/.504) and impressed some scouts doing it, giving hope that he can repeat at higher levels.

19) Matt Boyd, LHP, Grade C+: Pitching-equivalent of Dantzler, although Boyd had better pre-draft cachet with scouts and went in the sixth round from Oregon State. Polished, throws strikes, good pro debut (2.63 ERA, 23/4 K/BB in 24 innings), could advance rapidly as fourth/fifth starter type.

20) Richard Urena, SS, Grade C+: 2012 signee from Dominican is a long way off but performed well in DSL and GCL (.300/.383/.404) and could catch up with Barreto and Lugo quickly. Very tough to rank but I thought I would highlight him as someone to watch. You could easily slot the other C+ guys here instead.

OTHER GRADE C+: Matt Dean, 1B; Clinton Hollon, RHP; Rowdy Tellez, 1B

OTHERS: Jake Brentz, LHP; Adonys Cardona, RHP; Miguel Castro, RHP; Shane Dawson, LHP; Matt Dermody, LHP; Jeremy Gabryszwski, RHP; Ryan Goins, UT; Christian Lopes, 2B; Deck McGuire, RHP; Santiago Nessy, C: Kevin Pillar, OF; Dalton Pompey, OF; Rob "The Eternal" Rasmussen, LHP; Matt Smoral, LHP.

[Santoki]

I admittedly never follow the minors, so I stay out of discussions about it especially when it comes to deals. What do you guys all do to follow them? Do you just read reports and boxscores? There's no real way to watch games so how does everyone make a judgment about a particular player?

[Graham's Cracker]

I admittedly never follow the minors, so I stay out of discussions about it especially when it comes to deals. What do you guys all do to follow them? Do you just read reports and boxscores? There's no real way to watch games so how does everyone make a judgment about a particular player?

If you subscribe to MILB.TV it's not too expensive and you can catch all AAA games, some AA games and the odd midwest league games. Other than that, the reports and boxscores.

[Schad]

Surprised that he ranks Barreto and Davis at B-, though he's generally not too aggressive with low-minors guys. The overall story is that it's not a good system, at this moment in time...we need to strike gold with some of those B-/C+ players, or we're in for some lean years.

[MikeM]

Surprised that he ranks Barreto and Davis at B-, though he's generally not too aggressive with low-minors guys. The overall story is that it's not a good system, at this moment in time...we need to strike gold with some of those B-/C+ players, or we're in for some lean years.

I think if we make our first 2 picks count this year we could be alright.

[Graham's Cracker]

This will be an interesting year no doubt.

Discouraging to see PG has Bickford pegged as #1overall for 2016. I know it is early yet.


Sent from my LG-P880g using RealGM Forums mobile app

[satyr9]

This will be an interesting year no doubt. Discouraging to see PG has Bickford pegged as #1overall for 2016. I know it is early yet.


Sent from my LG-P880g using RealGM Forums mobile app

Once they fail to sign, I try not to think of them as players lost. Instead, the success of Paxton, Beede, Bryant, and potentially Bickford gives me some hope. At least we know our scouts are identifying really good prospects and we're trying to get them signed. I really hope AA keeps up the strategy of identifying these guys and putting money in front of them, 'cause it's crazy to pass it up IMO.

[Graham's Cracker]

This will be an interesting year no doubt. Discouraging to see PG has Bickford pegged as #1overall for 2016. I know it is early yet.


Sent from my LG-P880g using RealGM Forums mobile app

Once they fail to sign, I try not to think of them as players lost. Instead, the success of Paxton, Beede, Bryant, and potentially Bickford gives me some hope. At least we know our scouts are identifying really good prospects and we're trying to get them signed. I really hope AA keeps up the strategy of identifying these guys and putting money in front of them, 'cause it's crazy to pass it up IMO.

True, if you look at this year's BA college top 100. 3 of the top 6 were former Jays draft picks (Nola, Weaver, Beede). Andrew Suarez is in the mix for the top 25 as well. Added to the guys you mentioned. We saw the investment in scouting a few years ago, and they're doing a good job identifying solid talent.

[Michael Bradley]

The issue with the farm system right now is that it is loaded in the lower minors and almost empty in the upper minors. When you are dealing with players that are so far away from the Majors, it makes predicting their chances for MLB success even more difficult (hence the C and C+ grades for talent that may become better than that in time).

That is the major obstacle when drafting primarily high school talent and emphasizing international scouting. The ETA is always so far away. Hopefully AA starts to become more aggressive with some of the talent, at least the ones that warrant it.

[dagger]

This will be an interesting year no doubt. Discouraging to see PG has Bickford pegged as #1overall for 2016. I know it is early yet.


Sent from my LG-P880g using RealGM Forums mobile app

Once they fail to sign, I try not to think of them as players lost. Instead, the success of Paxton, Beede, Bryant, and potentially Bickford gives me some hope. At least we know our scouts are identifying really good prospects and we're trying to get them signed. I really hope AA keeps up the strategy of identifying these guys and putting money in front of them, 'cause it's crazy to pass it up IMO.

Or it could mean that there is a serious blind spot in the organization's ability to do its due diligence on the players' sign ability.

Weeks before the signing deadline, we were hearing rumblings that there was an issue with Bickford. Some thought it was arm trouble, but now it must have fallen into one of two categories - money, or an outright refusal to sign with Toronto.

[Ong_dynasty]

I personally like the strategy. for a draft that is really a lottery, you go for the best talent and go from there. You try and tempt them with money if it doesnt work, what can you do except try again as you know you get your pick back.

in a draft like baseball, i really think you have to focuse on getting few high talents as it is already so difficult for them to make it.

[dagger]

I personally like the strategy. for a draft that is really a lottery, you go for the best talent and go from there. You try and tempt them with money if it doesnt work, what can you do except try again as you know you get your pick back.

in a draft like baseball, i really think you have to focuse on getting few high talents as it is already so difficult for them to make it.

I'd buy that if you fail once to sign a first round pick, but not twice. Each time you fail to get a signing done, you have a forfeited a year of a player's development in that slot. Like the old saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

[MikeM]

I personally like the strategy. for a draft that is really a lottery, you go for the best talent and go from there. You try and tempt them with money if it doesnt work, what can you do except try again as you know you get your pick back.

in a draft like baseball, i really think you have to focuse on getting few high talents as it is already so difficult for them to make it.

I'd buy that if you fail once to sign a first round pick, but not twice. Each time you fail to get a signing done, you have a forfeited a year of a player's development in that slot. Like the old saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

But in the cases of Beede and Bickford becoming potential top 5 choices down the line, it does seem worth it to try and select them in the latter half of the 1st round.

I mean, we're risking a year of development for a lesser prospect for the chance to get a top 5 talent. I think I'm ok with that though.

[Ong_dynasty]

^^Im with him..
People always want top prospects.

I would rather take a 50% chance of signing top prospects than be 100% of good prospects. especially in this type of draft.

you dont quit on a game plan after the first bump. and the strategy has also been used in the later part of the draft. It is the same project. I fully support. will it work in the long term or not? well lets see.

[SharoneWright]

Once they fail to sign, I try not to think of them as players lost. Instead, the success of Paxton, Beede, Bryant, and potentially Bickford gives me some hope. At least we know our scouts are identifying really good prospects and we're trying to get them signed.

I used to be excellent at identifying the cutest girl in class,, getting them to sign was always more tricky.

[jaymeister15]

But in the cases of Beede and Bickford becoming potential top 5 choices down the line, it does seem worth it to try and select them in the latter half of the 1st round.

I mean, we're risking a year of development for a lesser prospect for the chance to get a top 5 talent. I think I'm ok with that though.

Agree completely with this.

[satyr9]

Once they fail to sign, I try not to think of them as players lost. Instead, the success of Paxton, Beede, Bryant, and potentially Bickford gives me some hope. At least we know our scouts are identifying really good prospects and we're trying to get them signed.

I used to be excellent at identifying the cutest girl in class,, getting them to sign was always more tricky.

Well the pen is mightier....

I'll take the GM who keeps trying to sign the pretty girl, over JP's beer goggles, 3am, safe as houses pick-ups.

[SharoneWright]

lol.

[Ong_dynasty]

Once they fail to sign, I try not to think of them as players lost. Instead, the success of Paxton, Beede, Bryant, and potentially Bickford gives me some hope. At least we know our scouts are identifying really good prospects and we're trying to get them signed.

I used to be excellent at identifying the cutest girl in class,, getting them to sign was always more tricky.

Did you ever considering a boat load of cash in their direction, that should work.!

[satyr9]

Did you ever considering a boat load of cash in their direction, that should work.!

Haha, this is my new analogy for people's reactions around here.

So you talked to one girl in the bar and it went terribly wrong, you should give up and **** prostitutes. Why won't you **** prostitutes? You're so cheap, there are so many prostitutes for you to ****, why won't you **** them when it only costs money? I hate you Roger!!!!