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I'll start;

1. R.A. Dickey
2. Drew Hutchison
3. Mark Buerhle
4. J.A. Happ
5. Brandon Morrow

R.A. Dickey is the key to this rotation. If he can get off to a good start, pitch about 225 innings, with a WHIP around 1.15, it's going to go a long way towards solidifying a Jays rotation that is shakier than a drunken game of Jenga.

Drew Hutchison has been the Jays best pitcher this Spring Training, and has opened a ton of eyes. Of course, he needs to stay healthy, and can hopefully carry a full workload, about 160-185 innings. He has a great track record from his time in the Minors, and was on a tear (in the MLB) before going down, and requiring TJ surgery.

Mark Buehrle needs to be Mark Buehrle. I'm expecting to eventually see some drop-off, but hopefully not too severe. Pitchers don't come much more predictable, and reliable than Buehrle.

J.A. Happ needs to be given 5-7 starts to sink or swim. If he can't turn his HORRIBLE Spring Training numbers around after those few starts, he needs to be designated for assignment. Putting him in the pen would make him a distraction, to a team that doesn't need any more of those this season. If he were to be traded/released, we could look at internal options such as Esmil Rogers, or Todd Redmond.

Brandon Morrow has electric stuff, but he cannot ever seem to stay healthy. The Jays have him pencilled in for 180+ innings, but I'm just not buying it. Honestly, at this point, I'd be happy with anything over 150+ innings. The Jays are starting him 5th, so that he can start the home opener. I don't know if that's the greatest idea after the spring he's had, but I guess time will tell.

In no particular order: Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Hutchison, McGowan (until his arm falls off). I'm going with those five because from an upside standpoint, that's the best the Jays can do internally. There is a ton of risk involved, with McGowan being the main risk, and Morrow/Hutchison also coming with injury concerns, but that's why it is imperative the Jays keep everyone capable of starting (Redmond, Rogers, etc).

If the Jays insist on going with an 8-man pen (they probably will have to if McGowan is in the rotation) and don't want to lose any starting depth, then have the pen be: Janssen, Santos, Delabar, Cecil, Loup, Rogers, Happ, and Redmond. Try to trade Jeffress or sneak him down. If neither is successful, then lose him for nothing. If Janssen starts the season on the DL, then they could hold on to Jeffress for a little bit.

Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Hutch, mild sobbing. Really, I can't think of a team better-suited for some kind of wacky paired starter thing with the fifth spot.

I'd go with McGowan at #5. I think this pitch count business is overblown. If they're really concerned about it, then pair him with Rogers or Redmond for the first 2-3 weeks of the season until he gets up to 100+ pitches. Besides, 75 pitches should be enough to get through 5 innings consistently, which is really all we need from the #5 spot.

Schadenfreude wrote:Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Hutch, mild sobbing. Really, I can't think of a team better-suited for some kind of wacky paired starter thing with the fifth spot.

Agreed. Pairing up McGowan and Redmond (for example) and counting on them to collectively give the Jays 6-7 innings every 5th day would be an interesting experiment, especially since they would have 7 relievers to back those guys up. I'm not sure the Jays are forward thinking enough to do it, but it's probably the best use of the available depth.

i will post on behalf of gregg zaun:

dickey
buehrle
redmond
rogers
mcgowan

It's funny but I think the chances are high that Hutchison and McGowan end up with the best ERAs in the rotation.

Michael Bradley wrote:

Schadenfreude wrote:Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Hutch, mild sobbing. Really, I can't think of a team better-suited for some kind of wacky paired starter thing with the fifth spot.

Agreed. Pairing up McGowan and Redmond (for example) and counting on them to collectively give the Jays 6-7 innings every 5th day would be an interesting experiment, especially since they would have 7 relievers to back those guys up. I'm not sure the Jays are forward thinking enough to do it, but it's probably the best use of the available depth.

Redmond/Happ might work better; have Redmond start, get one go-through of his deceptive delivery, and then bring in a lefty against a lineup that presumably has several of them. Neither has massive platoon splits, but enough of one that it could be a good way to game opposition setups.

There's no question about the top four. I'm OK with McGowan being the 5 to start if Happ is really as much of a mess right now as he seems, but you have to expect that his arm is going to fall off within a few starts. And that's if he even manages to make it through this week without injury.

I bet it's going to be Redmond.

Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle
Hutch
Redmond to start

Begin stretching McGowan out for the inevitable injury to our starters or struggles from Redmond

Dickey
Morrow
Buehrle
Hutch

I'm rooting for McGowan. I think the risk of having McGowan's arm blow up is one I'd take, provided that he is in favour of doing it. If he wasn't all for it, I'd keep him in the pen. Anyhow, Neil Wagner can fill his BP just fine whenever he winds up on the DL.

I'm fine with Redmond in there as well. He's at least serviceable as a 5th. I think Happ's gotta be hurt. Even his biggest detractors would agree that the guy isn't this bad. Does anyone have reports on velocity, etc. from his starts?

The bigger concern has to be the performance of the first 4 guys in the rotation anyways. Most important being Morrow.

Ugh

McGowan just got named the home opener starter.

You mean home opener?

Santoki wrote:You mean home opener?

brain fart, yes.

Haha, I assumed it was home opener but with Jeffress making this team I wouldn't be surprised by anything they do at this point.

AA flying on a wing and a prayer here with Dustin, hoping it works

They can certainly be blamed if his arm blows up as they should have told him in the off season to be starter ready.

I'd still rather let Happ go and grab Scott Baker for the inevitable McGowan or Morrow injury. not like Baker is the missing piece, I just have no faith in "I let up a homerun to Wandy Rodriguez" Happ.

akakalakin wrote:AA flying on a wing and a prayer here with Dustin, hoping it works

They can certainly be blamed if his arm blows up as they should have told him in the off season to be starter ready.

Nobody comes into ST "starter ready".

Everyone starts at the same pace they've been putting McGowan through. The only reason they're playing catch-up with him right now to get his pitch count up is that he missed some time with the flu a couple of weeks ago.

McGowan as a starter was floated numerous times since the end of last season. So it's not as if this has come out of nowhere, and based on his comments last week, he certainly expected an opportunity to be stretched out during ST.

Well, there's no way this will work out. Maybe he'll be fun to watch for a few starts, his stuff still looked good last year.