Michael Bradley wrote:His sample size as a starter is very small, and by no means am I saying he's going to perform at a high level without improvement (K rates in particular), but he hasn't embarrassed himself.
For example, in his relief outings that lasted 3 innings or more last season, he gave up 1 earned run in 14 innings (7 K, 2 BB, 8 H) against Boston, Baltimore, and Kansas City (IOW, not Petco). Does that mean he would have been able to go 5-6 innings with similar results? Maybe not, but as an emergency starter, I'd trust him to get through 5 innings and keep the team in the game before I feel comfortable with Drabek, Romero, or Hendriks to do the same, especially if his improved velocity can stick when stretched out.
Ultimately, I agree his future is probably in the pen, or a #5 starter, but unfortunately, he's probably the 3rd best starter (in terms of MLB rotation depth) in AAA behind Stroman and Nolin. Drabek is coming off two TJS's and couldn't find the plate when he was healthy (he is destined to be in relief, IMO) and Romero is just about done barring a miracle, so my main concern is having to watch them start MLB games this season if injuries start to pile up again.
I really think you're glossing over his inability to get minor league hitters out, which is a much larger sample size. There's about 150 innings over 2012/2013 of incredibly mediocre pitching; a significant drop in his already underwhelming strikeout rate from his first pass through AA and a large spike in his home run rates. Jenkins was supposed to be a guy with solid sinking action on his FB which is what, even without the strikeouts, would have let him survive in that back of the rotation, innings eater kind of role. His fly ball rates are a big red flag.
I would guess his increased velocity would not carry over to a starting role and is a result of being able to have more effort in his delivery because of the role. And you can't extrapolate 3 innings of work over five. Even going three innings, he's barely turning the lineup over. Outside of his outing against Houston, he didn't have any other relief appearances where he had to face more than two batters twice.
Stroman and Nolin are clearly ahead of him on the depth chart.
There's not much else you can do with Romero unless you cut ties with him.
Drabek's ultimate path back to the majors may be as a reliever, but he did enough in his minor league stint last year that you want to give him another shot in AAA this year.
And Hendriks has a fairly similar profile to Jenkins, with more sustained minor league success.
It's not clear yet how they plan to use Jenkins out of the pen, so he could wind up going 3-4 innings at a time to try and keep him stretched out in case they need to go to him in an emergency. But, if this team has to go through Redmond/Rogers/Happ/Stroman/Nolin and still need Jenkins to make a start, then none of this really matters because it will only amount to another tremendously disappointing season.