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2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3381 » by flatjacket1 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:04 pm

JaysRule15 wrote:Any idea why we fired the Vancouver Canadians' manager right after the team won the championship? I know that coaching turnover is high in the minors, but still, seems kinda crazy to fire a manager right after his team wins.


The only reason I can think of is he wasn't following development. In the minors, winning is beyond an afterthought. It makes some sense in Buffalo just because if we field a terrible team, the team is allowed to affiliate with another club after the deal is up forcing us to go back to the PCL (Where breaking balls don't move, everybody hits .300 and a 4.5 ERA is considered elite).

In the low minors most games start with the big league club per-determining pitch counts and usage. They might say "Start player X and pull him at 60 pitches or after 3 innings, whichever comes first" for example. They also usually choose which bullpen arms get the innings and such. Really a manager is mostly a figure head and focusing entirely on development. When we had Syndergaard, Sanchez and Nicolino in Lansing we would have two guys combine 6 innings, so Sanchez would throw 3 innings, get pulled and Syndergaard would throw 3 innings. Piggy backing starters was controversial but it wasn't the managers move, it was the brass. When I started attending minor league games I quickly noticed the feel is very similar to spring training. Moves have no merit and everyone is on a track. If Sanchez is assigned 60 pitches and gives up 59 first pitch home runs, he is still out for pitch #60. Some pitching changes are half way through AB's and such. Even teammates don't really know each other too well, last names are all that are remembered by players due to the roster constantly changing.

In Millers case it looks like he may have strayed from those parameters. Especially when he started pulling guys half way through innings when struggling and such, didn't look like it was managed like those clubs usually are. Left out good arms and quick hooks for the struggling ones would be one reason for firing.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3382 » by dagger » Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:19 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:
JaysRule15 wrote:Any idea why we fired the Vancouver Canadians' manager right after the team won the championship? I know that coaching turnover is high in the minors, but still, seems kinda crazy to fire a manager right after his team wins.


The only reason I can think of is he wasn't following development. In the minors, winning is beyond an afterthought. It makes some sense in Buffalo just because if we field a terrible team, the team is allowed to affiliate with another club after the deal is up forcing us to go back to the PCL (Where breaking balls don't move, everybody hits .300 and a 4.5 ERA is considered elite).

In the low minors most games start with the big league club per-determining pitch counts and usage. They might say "Start player X and pull him at 60 pitches or after 3 innings, whichever comes first" for example. They also usually choose which bullpen arms get the innings and such. Really a manager is mostly a figure head and focusing entirely on development. When we had Syndergaard, Sanchez and Nicolino in Lansing we would have two guys combine 6 innings, so Sanchez would throw 3 innings, get pulled and Syndergaard would throw 3 innings. Piggy backing starters was controversial but it wasn't the managers move, it was the brass. When I started attending minor league games I quickly noticed the feel is very similar to spring training. Moves have no merit and everyone is on a track. If Sanchez is assigned 60 pitches and gives up 59 first pitch home runs, he is still out for pitch #60. Some pitching changes are half way through AB's and such. Even teammates don't really know each other too well, last names are all that are remembered by players due to the roster constantly changing.

In Millers case it looks like he may have strayed from those parameters. Especially when he started pulling guys half way through innings when struggling and such, didn't look like it was managed like those clubs usually are. Left out good arms and quick hooks for the struggling ones would be one reason for firing.


I don't know if that was particular to Miller. A couple of other Blue Jays minor league staff were subsequently let go, including Gary Allenson who managed at Buffalo and last season at New Hampshire. Willie Collazo, the pitching coach at Lansing also was fired.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3383 » by JaysRule15 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:58 am

Maybe Shapiro wants to bring his own guys from Cleveland in and slowly phasing the old crowd out. If he fired everyone at once, it would've drawn a lot of attention.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3384 » by bluerap23 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:17 pm

Maybe they actually want to develop future coaches. A 70 year old manager is nice but not a futures asset.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3385 » by dagger » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:04 am

As we all know, the Jays had like five triples all season. Behold, the future. And a celebration that would give Rob Manfred a heart attack.

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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3386 » by Schad » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:03 am

MLB doesn't include enough suggestive dancing at third base.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3387 » by bluerap23 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:36 pm

Not a fan of the celebration but didn’t realize he had those wheels.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3388 » by JaysRule15 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:04 pm

lmao. JD once told an Angels coach to "suck my c***". Nice to see JD's future 3B replacement Vladdy actually acting it out.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3389 » by vaff87 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:07 am

I’m just finding out Bo Bichette played for Brazil during the WBC qualifiers last year. I guess him and Pardinho were teammates.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3390 » by flatjacket1 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:06 pm

bluerap23 wrote:Not a fan of the celebration but didn’t realize he had those wheels.


Dude has some speed. I wouldn't say he is going to steal bases at the ML level, but he won't clog them either. He stole 15 bags last year in 20 attempts, and this year stole 8 in 14. Bad rate but if you can swipe a bag at any somewhat decent level of baseball you can run a bit.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3391 » by Skin Blues » Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:41 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:
bluerap23 wrote:Not a fan of the celebration but didn’t realize he had those wheels.


Dude has some speed. I wouldn't say he is going to steal bases at the ML level, but he won't clog them either. He stole 15 bags last year in 20 attempts, and this year stole 8 in 14. Bad rate but if you can swipe a bag at any somewhat decent level of baseball you can run a bit.

The fact he's doing it at such a bad rate, in the minor leagues, at the prime age for base stealing ability (it starts dropping basically from the time you turn 20), does not bode well. In fact, his dad was one of the worst base runners of all time, according to Fangraphs' BaseRuns (worse than Frank Thomas), despite stealing 40 bases for the Expos one year.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3392 » by flatjacket1 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:07 pm

Skin Blues wrote:The fact he's doing it at such a bad rate, in the minor leagues, at the prime age for base stealing ability (it starts dropping basically from the time you turn 20), does not bode well. In fact, his dad was one of the worst base runners of all time, according to Fangraphs' BaseRuns (worse than Frank Thomas), despite stealing 40 bases for the Expos one year.


If you project an increase in power in an amateur you have to discount their future run tool so I get what you are saying. Barry Bonds experienced a similar trade off. If you project Vlad Jr. as a 40 home run guy then saying he will be quick by any standard is wrong.

Saying it starts dropping from age 20 is not a thing though. Rotographs has a nice article (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/) showing age 25 as the peak for most players. It also notes that "base stealers" or athletes with more than 20 steals in a season tend to age much faster than guys who just have a little bit of speed without really trying to monetize on the base paths. 18 out of 35 (51.4%) of the top running speeds as recorded by statcast are over 26 years old, average age between that sample is 29.3 years old, so it's not like they are all 26 either.

It's entirely how you see him in the future really. Not saying you are wrong for saying he will be slower than average, but I don't see him developing that way. If you see him as a 40 HR guy then yeah, he likely isn't going to be an average base runner at that point. But really its just a difference of opinion, not like either of us are right or wrong. I see him as a guy with crazy bat control (more BB:K in Majors maybe?) hitting for a high average with some power. Assuming he develops well, I really don't see him as a consistent 30 HR hitter, but more an over 20 less than 30 in most full seasons. Projecting a power increase based on age is easy, but bigger guys don't exactly "fill out" the same.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3393 » by bluerap23 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:02 pm

I really don’t need him to steal bases but legging our the occasional triple and potentially playing corner outfield would be nice.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3394 » by Skin Blues » Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:33 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:Saying it starts dropping from age 20 is not a thing though. Rotographs has a nice article (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/) showing age 25 as the peak for most players. It also notes that "base stealers" or athletes with more than 20 steals in a season tend to age much faster than guys who just have a little bit of speed without really trying to monetize on the base paths. 18 out of 35 (51.4%) of the top running speeds as recorded by statcast are over 26 years old, average age between that sample is 29.3 years old, so it's not like they are all 26 either.

I should have phrased it differently. What I meant is that he's currently at his peak base-stealing ability, and it's already not good. His speed may not degrade until he's 25 but it also won't really get any better. This is not really a problem since stolen bases are an over-valued skill and his hitting will make or break him as a star. He really doesn't look like he'll grow to be a mobile fielder/runner, though. His dad's defense/baserunning didn't fall off a cliff until his late 20's, so hopefully he can last that long.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3395 » by vaff87 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:54 pm

The Jays tweeted a week or so ago, that Bo was the first teenager to win the minor league batting title, since 1963.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3396 » by dagger » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:21 pm

vaff87 wrote:The Jays tweeted a week or so ago, that Bo was the first teenager to win the minor league batting title, since 1963.


I know you are enamoured with Bo and Vlad, but a word of warning: The Jays need many more good prospects than just those two to build a strong contender organically. They could just as easily end up being two stars on a bad team and become unhappy with losing if the rest of the buildout doesn't happen. At this point in time, that's still a very real risk.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3397 » by MavCarter » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:26 pm

Is vladdy the highest ranked prospect the jays have ever had?
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3398 » by Tanner » Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:06 pm

dagger wrote:
vaff87 wrote:The Jays tweeted a week or so ago, that Bo was the first teenager to win the minor league batting title, since 1963.


I know you are enamoured with Bo and Vlad, but a word of warning: The Jays need many more good prospects than just those two to build a strong contender organically. They could just as easily end up being two stars on a bad team and become unhappy with losing if the rest of the buildout doesn't happen. At this point in time, that's still a very real risk.


We don't know what the system will look like two years from now, much less by the time Vlad and Bo can potentially become disgruntled big league stars (assuming they even pan out). Prospects bust. Some lesser hyped prospects breakout. Some prospects just need adjustments to reach a different level of performance. There is so much uncertainty even with rebuilding that worrying about Vlad and Bo being stars on bad teams after half a season in A+ is really premature. The team's best prospects are currently an international signing in the summer of 2015 and a 2nd round pick a year ago. Don't underestimate how quickly things can change, for better or worse.

The skepticism people have over the front office avoiding a true rebuild still amazes me. The team has tried to win over the last two seasons and yet have traded a grand total of six prospects: Sean Ratcliffe, Hansel Rodriguez, Lupe Chavez, Colton Turner, Ryan McBroom, and Osman Gutierrez. Pretty much a a giant list of never-will-be's or relievers at best. Over that same span, they have acquired Darrell Ceciliani, Reese McGuire, Harold Ramirez, Tim Lopes, Tesocar Hernandez, Tom Pannone, and Samad Taylor in trades, and signed Lourdes Guirrel. That's not factoring the money they have put into the international market even when they were capped due to the Vlad signing. They have added way more to the farm system than they have subtracted, and that happened when the team was trying to win. If they ever decide to take a step back, then chances are their efforts to add young talent will increase even further.

The Jays could try to contend every year but as long as they keep doing what they are doing (hoarding prospects, investing in the farm), then they will start to see positive momentum in that area.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3399 » by Wally West » Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:44 pm

McGregFan wrote:Is vladdy the highest ranked prospect the jays have ever had?

Yeah I would think he's a virtual lock to be a top 2 rated prospect which would make him the highest rated Blue Jays prospect ever according to Baseball America. The highest was John Olerud back in 1990 when he came in as the number 3 ranked prospect in baseball.
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Re: 2017 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread 

Post#3400 » by Schad » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:49 pm

Tanner wrote:Over that same span, they have acquired Darrell Ceciliani, Reese McGuire, Harold Ramirez, Tim Lopes, Tesocar Hernandez, Tom Pannone, and Samad Taylor in trades, and signed Lourdes Guirrel. That's not factoring the money they have put into the international market even when they were capped due to the Vlad signing. They have added way more to the farm system than they have subtracted, and that happened when the team was trying to win. If they ever decide to take a step back, then chances are their efforts to add young talent will increase even further.


They have added, but those are ultimately pretty marginal additions, with a couple possible exceptions. You have a guy likely to be DFA'd, a backup catcher with the chance to be a starter if everything clicks, a guy increasingly unlikely to be a major league bat, a fringe utility prospect, a good bat with massive strikeout woes, a potential back-end starter with fringy stuff, a low minors MI sleeper, and a bat-first MI prospect whose bat has been worryingly light.

I'm glad to have all of them, to be sure. But that's not rebuilding the farm...it's adding a bit of trimming around the edges. We need more and better prospects to really fill our coffers out.
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