2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[vaff87]

Are the Jays going to promote Pearson to New Hampshire anytime soon? The Florida State League is clearly WAY too easy for him.

[Schad]

Don't think there's any rush there...he isn't going to reach the majors until we feel that he can give us 80+ pitches consistently in any instance, and he's barely averaging 50 at the moment with multiple short stints, as we seem to be pulling him if he has high pitchcount innings. He has major league stuff now, and if this was 2015 he'd likely be our closer; it's just a matter of bringing him up to the point where he can start.

[Trilogy]

Biggio had like a 3 game stretch where he wasn't superhuman a little while ago but that's over. Another HR today and another BB.

[Schad]

Another couple walks in the second half of the doubleheader. Scouts still don't seem to be too high on him owing to the lack of loud tools and positional considerations, but he's probably not too far from getting a chance. Maybe a month. We're going to get one hell of a game of musical chairs moving him/Vlad/Drury around, though. Wonder whether we could see Smoak traded earlier than is typical, assuming there's a market, as we could kinda use our DH spot, heh.

[IceBelly05]

Are the Jays going to promote Pearson to New Hampshire anytime soon? The Florida State League is clearly WAY too easy for him.

They’re building his innings by having him go 5 innings one start, and 2 innings the next, kind of a weird way to build innings but I’m sure there’s some science behind that

[Black Watch]

Frederick (Boston):

What do you make of Cavan Biggio's start? Can you chalk it up to just a hot start or the new ball at AAA or is this a continued progression from last year. Does he have a chance to crack the top 100?

Josh Norris: Second part first: We are meeting this afternoon (probably right after this chat) to discuss our next Top 100 update. Biggio, who is off to a smashing start, will obviously be in the discussion for entry into the list. First part second: This is going to be a battle we fight all year. We all anticipated the new baseball at Triple-A causing offensive explosions, but this is obscene, and it might get worse when the weather warms up in the East. If this change is permanent, power is going to become very difficult to project. I was discussing this last night with an evaluator and came to the conclusion that you should take whatever home run output you think the player might have, then add 10. Side note: I bet the offensive explosion offsets any gains in pace of play in the minor leagues.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-ball-is-sparking-an-offensive-explosion-in-triple-a/

Before the year began, we theorized that Triple-A baseball’s switch from the standard minor league balls of the past to the MLB ball could lead to a jump in home runs.

With the caveat that it’s very, very early in the season, it appears, if anything, we underestimated just how much of a super ball the MLB ball is proving to be.

The power explosion we’ve seen at the major league level has migrated to Triple-A. Talking to scouts over the past few years, they have frequently mentioned how hard it has been to calibrate their eyes to the difference between the conditions in the major leagues, where the ball flies, and the minor leagues, where the balls did not travel nearly as well.

The same problem still exists. It’s now just migrated to the divide between Double-A and Triple-A.

Last weekend, Lehigh Valley beat Rochester 20-18 in 10 innings in a game that saw the two teams combine for 15 home runs. Last April, the two teams each had 19 home runs in the entire month of April.

That was an outlier, but it’s not all that unusual this April. There have been 13 games where a Triple-A team has hit four home runs in a game. Playing with the MLB ball, the early returns for Triple-A baseball this season indicate that it is going to be a historic year for offense in the International League and the Pacific Coast League.

Strikeouts are up in Triple-A this year, which is true across all four minor league levels. Walks are also up. That’s a trend that is being seen around the game.

The BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) in Triple-A baseball is running at 101 percent of last year’s BABIP—.322 this year compared to .317 last year. When the ball stays in the park, the numbers are largely what we have seen in recent years.

But the ball isn’t staying in the park. Last April, Triple-A hitters homered once every 47 plate appearances. As the weather warmed up, so did the home run rate. Over the course of the entire 2018 season, Triple-A hitters homered every 43 plate appearances. So far this year, they are homering every 32 plate appearances. Triple-A hitters are hitting home runs at a rate of 135 percent of last year’s rate.

That’s an amazing stat and one that should strike fear in the hearts of pitchers around the International League and the Pacific Coast League. After all, April is usually the month that turns home runs into long flyouts. It’s cold. The ball does not travel.

Because the rest of the minor leagues have continued to use the less-expensive traditional MiLB ball, we have a control group that allows us to see just how much difference the MLB ball has made.

Across the rest of the minors, the early season numbers are right in line with what would be expected. Offensive numbers start slow and then heat up with the weather. Across Class A and Double-A, hitters are hitting .231 (low Class A) to .234 (high Class A and Double-A). Those batting averages are 17 to 20 points below where they ended up for 2018. Slugging percentages are down roughly 30-35 points from last year’s averages as well. And home run rates similarly are down. In the first couple of weeks of the season, the home run rate at those three levels ranges from 81.6 percent of 2018’s numbers (low Class A) to 88.8 percent (Double-A).

That’s what we would expect. As the temperatures heat up, the ball flies further and offensive numbers go up. Those numbers have dipped a little more than they did for all of April last season, but within similar ranges. At the end of last April, all four full-season leagues were hitting home runs at 90 to 97 percent of their end of season rates.

Remember how Triple-A hitters are homering every 32 plate appearances? Just a level lower, Double-A hitters are homering every 53 plate appearances. Last year, MLB hitters homered every 33 plate appearances, similar to this year’s Triple-A rate. But the Double-A home run rate is comparable to a level we haven’t seen in the major leagues since the strike-shortened 1981 season.

Triple-A and the rest of the minor league levels are playing with two different baseballs. As far as offensive environments, it’s as if they were playing in two different eras.

Even if the Triple-A home run rate doesn’t increase with warmer weather, at the current rate Triple-A would see 1,200 additional home runs compared to last season. It would mean that the average Triple-A team would hit 158 home runs this season. Last year, Triple-A teams averaged 117 home runs and only three of the 30 teams hit 158 or more home runs. Right now, the average pitcher’s ERA in Triple-A baseball is 5.01. Last year it was 4.25.

We will know much more as the season wears on, but unless this offensive spike dissipates, the difference between the offensive environment in Double-A and Triple-A is so significant that significant allowances will have to be made in evaluating players. A hitter on pace to hit 15 home runs in Double-A could suddenly turn into a 20-plus home run hitter in Triple-A with no change in ability level, but just because the offensive environment is so different.

Of course, the argument could also be made that Triple-A’s home run-happy environment is more like the major leagues, where the same ball shows similar characteristics. From that standpoint, it may make scouts evaluations of Triple-A hitters and pitchers a little easier.

When the weather warms up, hitters' parks like Las Vegas and Reno could end up among the most extreme offensive parks the minors have seen this century. Ryan Howard’s 46 home runs in 2004 is the most homers we have seen in the minors this century. It’s fair to wonder if that mark might fall in 2019.

[Schad]

Honestly, it's probably good for pitchers in the medium term, particularly in the IL (PCL pitchers are already pretty disadvantaged). Getting used to a new ball with different seams and different off-the-bat dynamics can't be easy when combined with facing much tougher competition, and all levels should probably be using the same ball.

That said, one wonders whether the less-juiced minor league ball would be the better choice across levels...

[Schad]

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[vaff87]

How does Pardinho drop 18 spots when he hasn’t thrown a pitch?

[polo007]

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[polo007]

[Schad]

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Interesting on both counts. Curious how they opt to use Pearson in NH...don't think hitters there will be much of an impediment.

Adams has seen the strikeouts return, so AA will be a major test for him. Wouldn't be shocked if Kirk moves up to Dunedin soon, in order to get Danner more reps at catcher in Lansing.

[bluerap23]

Catching prospects are pretty exciting in our system. Has to be our greatest organizational strength ATM.

[bluerap23]

Another couple walks in the second half of the doubleheader. Scouts still don't seem to be too high on him owing to the lack of loud tools and positional considerations, but he's probably not too far from getting a chance. Maybe a month. We're going to get one hell of a game of musical chairs moving him/Vlad/Drury around, though. Wonder whether we could see Smoak traded earlier than is typical, assuming there's a market, as we could kinda use our DH spot, heh.

I’m surprised that they haven’t given both Biggio and Gurriel a ton of reps in the outfield.

[dagger]

Nice writeup about Pearson - not only does he have good stuff, he is very focussed on his body (weight management, nutrition, etc).

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toronto-blue-jays-nate-pearson-soaring-up-to-double-a/c-306806068

By Chris Bumbaca / MiLB.com | May 3, 2019 1:41 AM

Toronto's top two prospects -- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette -- passed through Double-A New Hampshire in 2018. Now, it's Nate Pearson's turn.

The Blue Jays promoted their third-ranked prospect Thursday from Class A Advanced Dunedin to the Eastern League. The organization also sent Pearson's batterymate, No. 30 Riley Adams, to the Fisher Cats.

"I'm super excited to join the Fisher Cats and can't wait to get to work with my new teammates!" Pearson told MiLB.com late Thursday night.

Toronto selected Pearson in the first round of the 2017 Draft out of the Junior College of Central Florida. The right-hander started seven games for Class A Short Season Vancouver that year and allowed two earned runs across 19 innings.

Anticipating a full season in 2018, back tightness delayed his debut until May 7. After tossing 1 2/3 innings in his Dunedin debut, a line drive fractured his right ulna and cost him the rest of the season. Pearson went to the Arizona Fall League and posted a 6.20 ERA in six starts, but struck out 23 over 20 1/3 frames.

MLB.com's No. 72 overall prospect has been fantastic to start the 2019 campaign. The Blue Jays have eased him back by alternating the length of his six outings between five and two innings each start. Pearson set a career high for strikeouts with nine on April 14, then fanned 10 during his next five-inning start April 25.

"It's always good to have a healthy outing, especially missing all of last year," Pearson told MiLB.com last month. "I'm just trying to find my groove this year, stay healthy and make my start every fifth day."

He'll now have the chance to take the mound every five days in the Eastern League. During his last start for Dunedin on Wednesday, he fanned five in two innings and walked one without allowing a hit. He lowered his ERA to 0.86 and WHIP to 0.62, with opponents batting .139 against him and finished with a 3-0 record, 35 strikeouts and only three walks over 21 innings.

The 6-foot-6, 245-pounder uses his frame to employ an explosive fastball that received a 75 grade on the 20-80 scale. Pearson also sports a plus curveball and a curveball-changeup combination.

Dunedin pitching coach Jim Czajkowski commended Pearson's work ethic between starts, which puts himself in a position to be successful.

"The game is the fun part -- the big test -- but everything this kid does between starts is phenomenal," Czajkowski told MiLB.com last month. "I've coached a lot of good pitchers that are future Hall of Famers and I'll put him right up there. With his work ethic, what he does in between his starts, how he diets, his weight lifting program, he's done a fantastic job."

That preparation has also been noted at the top levels of the organization.

"Nate takes a ton of pride in his nutrition and his strength and conditioning routines, and it shows with the body he has right now," Blue Jays director of player development Gil Kim told MiLB.com in April. "He takes full ownership of himself as a person and a pitcher. His routines are extremely solid. He's working very hard right now on tightening up the shape of his slider. He puts in all the work you could ask for, and he's a great example for all of our pitchers to follow. We're excited about him carrying this positive development from the AFL right into the regular season."

Adams began the season repeating the Florida State League after playing 99 games for Dunedin in 2018. In 65 at-bats this year, he hit .277/.434/.462 with three homers and 12 RBIs. The backstop has caught five of Pearson's six starts this year.

[dagger]

Another couple walks in the second half of the doubleheader. Scouts still don't seem to be too high on him owing to the lack of loud tools and positional considerations, but he's probably not too far from getting a chance. Maybe a month. We're going to get one hell of a game of musical chairs moving him/Vlad/Drury around, though. Wonder whether we could see Smoak traded earlier than is typical, assuming there's a market, as we could kinda use our DH spot, heh.

I’m surprised that they haven’t given both Biggio and Gurriel a ton of reps in the outfield.

Gurriel hasn't seen the outfield but Biggio was in right for one of the games yesterday.

[dagger]

The Kirk-Castillo battery is a thing once more

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[polo007]

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[polo007]

The Blue Jays’ motto, and their message to their prospects, appears to be ... not yet | The Star

Anyway, if Montoyo is looking for speed — plus the added bonus of stalwart defence – there’s Jonathan Davis Jr. down Buffalo way, hitting .314 in a dozen Triple-A games, about to turn 26 next week, with big-league dreams fading.

How come not Davis? How come not Biggio? Or even Gurriel in the outfield, where he played 40 games with the Industriales in his native Cuba in 2015-16.

Ross Atkins has an explanation for that , an exculpation, of course he does.

“It’s a great question and I think there’s two things that are factoring in there,” the youthful general manager was saying late Saturday afternoon, in a state-of-the-nation session with reporters in the dugout pre-game. “The first one is, just making sure when there are transitions that we’ve maximized their opportunities in the minor leagues and they are in a position to hopefully never go back.”

Which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, you know. Players are going up and down all the time without psychic injury.

“But the more important piece to the equation is making sure, once they do come, they’re playing every day, or the bulk of the playing time. As you’ve seen with Socrates Brito, he’s had very limited playing time. Alen Hanson had limited playing time and was pinch-running often. When we bring a player to the big leagues, we want him to play on a regular basis.”

For those who are expected to become everyday players, sure. But Davis, as an example, has never been projected as that guy. Can’t see how his development would be curtailed, playing every third or fourth game up with Toronto, especially given his superior glove.

Yet this cautious, conservative approach persists. So of course Biggio — hitting .333 with six home runs and a 1.098 OPS in 21 games through Friday — is being kept down on the farm, likely not to be seen around the big club for a long while yet, if doubtless the next Bison promoted.

[dagger]

The Blue Jays’ motto, and their message to their prospects, appears to be ... not yet | The Star

Anyway, if Montoyo is looking for speed — plus the added bonus of stalwart defence – there’s Jonathan Davis Jr. down Buffalo way, hitting .314 in a dozen Triple-A games, about to turn 26 next week, with big-league dreams fading.

How come not Davis? How come not Biggio? Or even Gurriel in the outfield, where he played 40 games with the Industriales in his native Cuba in 2015-16.

Ross Atkins has an explanation for that , an exculpation, of course he does.

“It’s a great question and I think there’s two things that are factoring in there,” the youthful general manager was saying late Saturday afternoon, in a state-of-the-nation session with reporters in the dugout pre-game. “The first one is, just making sure when there are transitions that we’ve maximized their opportunities in the minor leagues and they are in a position to hopefully never go back.”

Which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, you know. Players are going up and down all the time without psychic injury.

“But the more important piece to the equation is making sure, once they do come, they’re playing every day, or the bulk of the playing time. As you’ve seen with Socrates Brito, he’s had very limited playing time. Alen Hanson had limited playing time and was pinch-running often. When we bring a player to the big leagues, we want him to play on a regular basis.”

For those who are expected to become everyday players, sure. But Davis, as an example, has never been projected as that guy. Can’t see how his development would be curtailed, playing every third or fourth game up with Toronto, especially given his superior glove.

Yet this cautious, conservative approach persists. So of course Biggio — hitting .333 with six home runs and a 1.098 OPS in 21 games through Friday — is being kept down on the farm, likely not to be seen around the big club for a long while yet, if doubtless the next Bison promoted.

I'm glad you didn't post the whole text because Rosie is so prejudiced against the current management, she is basically giving you commentary rather than coverage. She thinks it would be a good idea to try for a wildcard this year. Now, if we stumble into one, I'm okay with it, but you know at the trade deadline she'd be whining to trade for reinforcements to get that one-game round playoff game. She's never gotten over Alex Anthopolous, never figured out how he short-sheeted the team and fans in pursuit of a brief playoff fling.