2014 MLB draft thread - Jeff Hoffman 9th, Max Pentecost 11th

[dagger]

Getting close enough to start this off.

From Jim Callis:

A draft overview:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/muc ... y=news_mlb

Top prospects list:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/ ... list=draft

Updated Blog:

http://jimcallis.mlblogs.com

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/461221673564643328[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/461219539079159810[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/461220424446394372[/tweet]

[MikeM]

2 more HS pitchers to add to the farm!

[Graham's Cracker]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/elliottbaseball/status/460965549653393408[/tweet]

[Moxie]

My preliminary top 5, in terms of name-ability.

1. Joey Pankake
2. Grayson Greiner
3. Ti'quan Forbes
4. Touki Toussaint
5. Jakson Reetz

[satyr9]

My preliminary top 5, in terms of name-ability.

1. Joey Pankake
2. Grayson Greiner
3. Ti'quan Forbes
4. Touki Toussaint
5. Jakson Reetz

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gODZzSOelss[/youtube]

[rarefind]

Anyone very intrigued by Jacob Gatewood?

[-MetA4-]

Anyone very intrigued by Jacob Gatewood?

He was getting some #1 overall hype when this year's cycle first started but his stock has dropped a lot after he's shown way too many holes in his swing, putting serious concern over whether he will ever be able to hit well enough to maximize his other tools. However, there has been some talk lately that he's been on a hot streak as of late and that the Phillies have been looking at him a lot (7th overall). The Phillies do tend to like toolsy HS position players, which is also why they are getting attached to Nick Gordon a ton as well.

[-MetA4-]

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo put out a quick Top 10 mock draft today HERE:

9. Blue Jays
Callis: Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian Academy -- After failing to sign Beede (2011) and Phil Bickford ('13), Toronto finally lands an electric high school right-hander in the first round.

Mayo: Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Sandalwood HS (Jacksonville, Fla.) -- The Jays love high school pitching, and they're not afraid to surprise.

[Kaizen]

Jim Callis has Beede being available at both our picks.

[Wally West]

Really would love Grant Holmes with our 9th pick.

Holmes' older brother Colby signed as a non-drafted free agent with the Braves last June after helping South Carolina win two College World Series championships in four years. Grant shares his brother's affinity for spinning a breaking ball but has more power to his stuff, making him a likely first-round pick in 2014.

He has shown increased fastball velocity this spring, hitting 100 mph during a preseason scrimmage and often popping 97s late in games, showing good life and command. Holmes also features a hard breaking ball that has become more of a true curveball. He'll need to use his changeup more at the next level, though it does show some promise.

Holmes is shorter and heavier than his listed height and weight and may not have much projection left. That's less of an issue, though, because he already has the makings of two well above-average pitches and he has improved his conditioning.

With our 11th pick, it's a toss up really as the Bluejays are known around the industry as being a team that's not afraid to select a guy much much higher then their projected to go. I could definitely see us taking a serious look at Luke Weaver (our 19th round pick who chose to go to Florida State in 2011). There was a rumour going around that we'd offered him a 1 million dollar bonus but he chose to attend school. I really love that fastball/changeup combination he possesses and could see us taking him. Michael Gettys is another kid I like. Absolutely loaded with tools but could just turn out to be another Bubba Starling. If he learns to hit enough to tap into his power, he might turn out to be the best player in this draft with 4 above average to plus tools if you take out his hit tool. Was clocked at 102mph from the outfield earlier in the spring. I also like the switch hitter Casey Gillaspie who's a 1st base only prospect. Some scouts love his switch hitting ability and tools to be a standout first base defender so much that they're throwing Lance Berkman/Teixeira comps at him. And yeah he's the younger brother of Chicago White Sox 3rd baseman Conor Gillaspie.

[dagger]

Jim Callis has Beede being available at both our picks.

And we'll likely pass, too.

[-MetA4-]

I could definitely see us taking a serious look at Luke Weaver (our 19th round pick who chose to go to Florida State in 2011). There was a rumour going around that we'd offered him a 1 million dollar bonus but he chose to attend school. I really love that fastball/changeup combination he possesses and could see us taking him.

I doubt it. Weaver looks more like a late-first rounder right now. If we were to buck the HS-trend and go for a college pitcher there would certainly be a few guys available at #11 that are perceived higher. That just looks way too early for Weaver.

If you want a possible "surprise" take a look at HS OF Monte Harrison. Easy plus athlete, huge arm from the outfield, multi-sport star (signed by Nebraska as a 4-star WR), great size and physical build. Big tools which the Jays like but at the same time he's got a real Bubba Starling vibe to him, all the way down to his home state and college commitment/football pedigree. He's getting some ~Top 20-25 hype now, but a team that believes they can mold the tools into real hitting ability will value him higher. He's old for the class (nearly 18 years, 10 months) and raw as a hitter like Starling was which is worrying, but the hope is that he's behind developmentally because he hasn't fully devoted to baseball yet.

Here's him showing off some athleticism in basketball:
http://www.hudl.com/athlete/450737/highlights/140754375

[-MetA4-]

Also...

Mike (Toronto)
Any early reports on Phil Bickford (sigh)?

Klaw (1:51 PM)
Terrible. Upper 80s at times, still no breaking ball. I criticized the Jays for taking what I saw as a second round talent at best with the 10th pick, but the end result will probably be OK for them.

[Schad]

Hard to imagine a draft that better caters to our preferences.

I'd still love to get our hands on Nick Gordon, but I doubt that he lasts 'til 9.

[Wally West]

I could definitely see us taking a serious look at Luke Weaver (our 19th round pick who chose to go to Florida State in 2011). There was a rumour going around that we'd offered him a 1 million dollar bonus but he chose to attend school. I really love that fastball/changeup combination he possesses and could see us taking him.

I doubt it. Weaver looks more like a late-first rounder right now. If we were to buck the HS-trend and go for a college pitcher there would certainly be a few guys available at #11 that are perceived higher. That just looks way too early for Weaver.

I agree with it being too high for Weaver unless he starts coming on this last month leading up to the draft but with AA throwing a wrench in taking Bickford last season, who knows. If Nick Gordon or Monte Harrison are available with the 9th/11th picks, we'd be pretty silly to not draft either of them and go pitcher/pitcher with both picks. Casey Gillaspie is interesting if you believe in what he is as a 1B only prospect. The hit tool/power/setup at the plate is all there but in a draft like this, we could pretty much rebuild our farm system back into a top 5 farm with just this draft alone with the amount of high upside arms and toolsy prospects with guys coming on in our system like Daniel Norris/Mitch Nay/Alberto Tirado to join the likes of Sanchez (Stroman will probably lose his prospect status this season) and Osuna.

[Wally West]

bob elliott ‏@elliottbaseball 50m

Jays top scouting eyes Dana Brown, Chuck LaMarr in on: SS Ti’Quan Forbes Columbia, MS HS and SS Trea Turner North Carolina State #BlueJays

Is it foreshadowing when I say we're looking for an up the middle battery mate for Reyes with a chance to hit so we don't have to be bombarded by Scott Boras? Loool sorry guys, saw an opening haha!

There's a chance neither of these guys are in the big leagues by the time Reyes's contract is up.

[Moxie]

DJF with a draft post worth reading.

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2014/05/0 ... e-jay-way/

[Schad]

That's a fantastic write-up. I'd be curious to see the league-wide distribution of pitchers/hitters from Texas and California, because there's absolutely a stereotype beyond the Jays about hard throwin' Texans and smooth Californian bats (and speedsters from Florida, for that matter).

[satyr9]

Yeah, very good piece, although I'm not sure I would count geography for the top two picks. I would expect that's a scouting focus, but for a draft with basically two top 10's I'm pretty sure they travel. It's all the round 2-10 ones where the geographic stereotypes will matter as that's where they'll spend the bulk of their time.

IMO he could've emphasized our love of the under-rated or injured in the early/mid rds. We do that all the time.

I'd also be shocked if our up the middle positional bias was at all outside the norm. So many guys are drafted as C/SS/CF that end up elsewhere, it's just where the most physically gifted non-pitchers play in h.s. except for the occasional uber power guy.

[-MetA4-]

Kiley McDaniel released a Top 116 big-board last night:

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1400460.html

I'd have a top tier of three (Aiken, Hoffman, Rodon), then a tier of one (Kolek), then would have players 5 through 24 all pretty similar in value, with it hard to see where to split that third tier of 20 players. I would take last year's top two picks (Mark Appel and Kris Bryant) as amateurs over anyone in this year's draft, but after that the two crops are similar in overall talent.

The effect we should expect from this distribution of talent is that the top 4 players go in the top 4 picks, then a bunch of below-slot deals get cut. There are already rumors that my #5 player, Nick Gordon, will cut a below slot deal with the Twins at pick #5 with his father, former big league reliever Tom Gordon, acting as Nick's advisor. Every player/advisor in this range knows they could slip to the bottom if they lose a few coin flips in split war rooms, so they are incentivized to market themselves as signable because if they slip 5-10 picks, even an over-slot deal at a lower pick would likely be for less money.