RealGM

I don't see this posted yet.

Apparently the Jays have been one of the league's luckiest teams on offense but are having even worse luck with their pitching. 4th luckiest team in MLB at getting hits in clusters and 1st or the most unlucky in MLB for giving up clusters of hits.

http://grantland.com/features/the-30-week-8-phillies-royals-blue-jays-giants-cluster-luck/

The_Hater wrote:I don't see this posted yet.

Apparently the Jays have been one of the league's luckiest teams on offense but are having even worse luck with their pitching. 4th luckiest team in MLB at getting hits in clusters and 1st or the most unlucky in MLB for giving up clusters of hits.

http://grantland.com/features/the-30-week-8-phillies-royals-blue-jays-giants-cluster-luck/

The first figure in parentheses represents runs-scored luck, the second is runs-allowed luck; positive values indicate good fortune, while negative values point to poor luck.

Its the other way around actually and it makes sense too given how many Jays pitchers are outperforming their peripherals, like Buerhle with his 4.09 xFIP vs a 2.33 ERA

Avenger wrote:

The_Hater wrote:I don't see this posted yet.

Apparently the Jays have been one of the league's luckiest teams on offense but are having even worse luck with their pitching. 4th luckiest team in MLB at getting hits in clusters and 1st or the most unlucky in MLB for giving up clusters of hits.

http://grantland.com/features/the-30-week-8-phillies-royals-blue-jays-giants-cluster-luck/

The first figure in parentheses represents runs-scored luck, the second is runs-allowed luck; positive values indicate good fortune, while negative values point to poor luck.

Its the other way around actually and it makes sense too given how many Jays pitchers are outperforming their peripherals, like Buerhle with his 4.09 xFIP vs a 2.33 ERA

You're right, not sure how I read that backwards. Luckiest pitching staff and only 18th luckiest in hitting.

The_Hater wrote:I don't see this posted yet.

It was posted in the power rankings thread. Seems weird to me though. Here's my post on the stats from the other thread:

I wonder how they came up with this stat though. I agree it 'passed the eye' test but other metrics don't back it up.

Our BABIP and LOB% is middle of the pack, and our ERA is higher than our FIP (though a little below xFIP). None of those indicate a lot of luck. The only number that implies we're lucky is a 25th in the league HR/FB rate, but that shouldn't outweigh the others (and is built into FIP/xFIP I believe).

This doesn't pass peer review in my opinion.

In terms of xFIP - ERA (which should be a pretty decent indication of pitching luck) the Jays are 13th.

On offense, we're 20th on BABIP, but we are 2nd in HR/FB rate, which means there should be some regression there. But it's not like we're scoring more runs than our hitting says we should. We're 2nd in wOBA while we're 3rd in runs per game. So clustering doesn't seem to affect the hitting that much.