Japan/Korea Free Agency targets (mostly Korea; 2015 update pg. 2)

[CPT]

(Not sure if this is the right spot for this, but it doesn't really seem like something for the Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion thread, since it seems to be for prospects who are already in the Jays system)

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/9/8/6112433/asian-japanese-korean-baseball-players-mlb-offseason-2014" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This article mentions two Japanese pitching prospects, a Korean pitcher, and a Korean shortstop. There is no Tanaka this year, but there may be some good value.

I can't really comment on the Japanese players, but I follow the Korean league pretty closely, and I like Kang's potential at 2B or 3B. He plays SS in Korea, but I don't think he'd be good enough defensively to play the position in the big leagues. His value is mostly at the plate, given that he can bring it from SS/2B or 3B. He put up a beastly 1.219 OPS this year (.360/.463/.756). For comparison, Eric Thames is also in the top 5 with a 1.074 OPS. He's also put up a 9.31 WAR (2nd is 6.95, and Thames is 7th at 5.59). He's 27, about 6 feet, 220 lb, so he's bigger and stronger than what you may imagine from your typical Asian infielder. If anything he could probably stand to slim down a bit, especially if he ends up at 2B or SS. He compares favourably to Choi Jeong, who had been getting some MLB buzz last year, but was slowed by injuries this year and didn't stack up as well when compared to the foreign hitters who joined the league this year. He was also a 3B who would likely have had to find a new position in the MLB. If he comes relatively cheap, I'd like to see the Jays give him a look, though I haven't heard anything about the Jays scouting him.

Kwang-hyun Kim, on the other hand, I'm not so bullish on. He's done fine this year, and probably projects to be a bit better than Yoon Suk-min (who I was also down on, and never made it out of the minors for Baltimore this year), but I wouldn't even say he's the best pitcher in the KBO right now. He is playing on a bad team and has managed decent numbers, so maybe there's something there, but I don't see it.

If there are any other prospects you guys are curious about, particularly in the Korean league, let me know.

[rarefind]

Kenta Maeda is the guy I am really curious about and how he projects against Major League caliber hitters.

[FrankGrimes]

got any info on geon chang seo? he's a little burner and just 25 years old. plays infield but doesn't specify where.

[CPT]

got any info on geon chang seo? he's a little burner and just 25 years old. plays infield but doesn't specify where.

He plays 2B, on the same team as Kang.

He's their leadoff hitter and gets a ton of hits (.365/.432/.541). Really fast, but probably not the fastest in the league. 45 steals (16 CS) and 15 triples (1st in the league) make a strong case for him though.

I think he's been the best 2B in the league this year (actually won the award for it last year when I don't think he was), but he was left off the Korean national team for some reason. Some writers said it was due to a lack of versatility, but with his athleticism I think he could play SS at the Korean level, he's just never asked to because they have Kang. I think it was some seniority crap that plagues Korean baseball (and culture in general), especially with exemption from military service on the line (I believe they are giving some older players a chance to get that, with the assumption Seo will have his chance later).

Very nice player at the KBO level, but I'm not sure what his MLB prospects are. He may blossom in a larger role with Kang (and possibly his other teammate, home run machine Park Byung-ho) playing overseas next year.

[DonYon]

Kang's having a monster year so I'm sure he'll get decent offers from MLB teams. However, KBO's never exported anyone that had a significant impact in the majors, so I'm not counting on him becoming a major starting caliber infielder in the long-term. I'm more hopeful of guys like Hak Ju Lee breaking the major league roster soon (although he's not performing well coming off an injury).

[CPT]

Padres got the rights to Kim Kwang-hyun for $2M. I doubt the contract will be too hefty.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/full/20 ... 0315F.html

Kang just finished losing the Korean Series, and he kind of **** the bed. Lots of errors on routine plays, which is not good when the question about you is defense. He did win the MVP in the previous round though. He's been high on some lists (35 on someone's top 50 FA, 15 on another one...one of the two was Keith Law, FWIW). Doubt the Jays will be in on him, but he could be a cheap option at 2B with some upside.

There's also been some talk about pitcher Yang Hyeon-jong being posted (he wants to be posted, the team may or may not comply). I think he's better than Kim, but that might not translate to the MLB level (better control, worse velocity, can be inconsistent).

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-l ... 54352.html

[RapsAndJays21]

Who cares? We aren't getting any.

[FrankGrimes]

Who cares? We aren't getting any.

post of the year.

[CPT]

Could say that about any free agents. Sorry to have flooded the board with such useless information

If the Jays are smart (jury's out), they would look at one of these guys, even as a pure business transaction. $2 million to tap into the Korean market seems like a pretty good deal. Yang should be available for a comparable amount. Kang will cost way more though, and with the move for Travis, the 1% chance of the Jays being in probably slides to 0.

[FrankGrimes]

if there is any risk/value reward, AA should be looking into every free agent. but news is only the big fish which is why I'm guessing we hear so much about Sandoval, martin, etc. knowing they aren't coming here.

I'd look at yang. he won't be as good as ryu but he's projected to be a number 3 with number 2 upside. one can never have enough pitching and I think he'll come cheaper than an equal comparison from the free agent market.

[CPT]

I see him more as a back-end rotation or reliever with 3 upside (the stuff I've been reading about him working in the mid 90s just isn't true), but for the likely price, he deserves a look.

[CPT]

got any info on geon chang seo? he's a little burner and just 25 years old. plays infield but doesn't specify where.

Seo won the KBO MVP today in a complete **** decision. I'm convinced Kang is being punished for wanting to leave for the MLB. The inferiority complex is real y'all.

Seo is a really good player, but 3rd or 4th best on his team (Kang, Park, and possibly Andy Van Hekken ahead of him). A team which was not the best in the league, by the way.

I wonder if this will affect Kang's posting fee (I know we won't be in on him, but he may end up on a division rival, so still somewhat relevant).

[FrankGrimes]

nice info CPT, thanks!

what can you tell us about shohei otani? this kid the real deal? he wanted to go mlb out of high school but was convinced otherwise (pressured?). he went number 1 overall to the npl and to my understanding went to the npl because he was promised he can pitch and hit. his second year looks pretty damn good as a two way threat.

how many years until he can get posted? and what is his ceiling?

[Graham's Cracker]

Interesting that the Pirates just signed Radhames Liz to a 2-year deal at $3 Million. I thought he did alright in the Jays system this year, however, I'm surprised he was able to get a 2 year guarantee at that kind of money.

[CPT]

Sorry to say I don't know that much about Otani. At least no more than anyone could find out through Google. Weird story though. I guess he was sold on the idea that he'd be better off developing in Japan than in the US minor leagues. Being able to hit (and occasionally play OF?) seems really important to him, and with the new posting rules, whenever that gets done, I'd expect him to go to the NL. The new posting rules also make it less likely he'll be posted early (unless there's some kind of agreement already in place). The max his team can get is $20M, so they may hold out until the year before he hits free agency. Daisuke, Darvish, and Tanaka all came over at 25-26, and he's only 20, so it will probably be a while.

As for Liz, there was talk of him coming back to the KBO before he signed that deal with the Pirates.

Edit: Yang's posting deadline has passed, so we should get a winner soon.

Kang has not been posted yet as far as I know.

Haven't been able to find out definitively whether or not Maeda has been posted either.

[CPT]

The rights to Yang Hyeon-jong were won by the Minnesota Twins. The amount of the winning bid has not been made public, but is estimated to be between $700K and $1.5M. I don't think the Jays missed out on anything huge here (I do like him, but as I said, I find the talk of him being even a mid-rotation starter kind of surprising), but if his contract is relatively cheap, that's not much to pay to crack into the Korean baseball market.

Selfishly, I'd like it just for the availability of Jays gear in stores and (more importantly) games on TV.

Edit: There's been a lot of buzz about the team not accepting the bid, and there's also a rumour that Texas won, not Minnesota. It would be like Yu Darvish all over again! Except, not really.

[CPT]

For anyone following, word is KIA rejected the offer for Yang, so he will stay there another year and then become a free agent.

Word is that they did not want to set a precedent that Korean teams can be lowballed into accepting offers like $1-2M for their best players. They aren't going to compete this year with or without him, and that's still a decent chunk of change for a Korean team, so I kind of believe them.

Edit: He actually won't be a free agent until 2016, so he may be posted again next year. He may also just end up going to Japan, and then his MLB availability would be subject to whatever contract he signs over there (I guess?).

[CPT]

Good article from Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/japanese ... n-context/

Tidbit on Toritani:

Takashi Toritani is more of an iron-man infielder with no one great asset. He’s light on power, but has good plate discipline; he plays shortstop well and should be capable at second in the MLB; and he has like zero injuries ever. I have difficulty seeing Toritani as a starter in the MLB, but if Munenori Kawasaki — who was always a better fielder and baserunner but a worse hitter — can hang around the MLB and Triple-A, then a bench role for Toritani is well within possibility. He could maybe even be a fringe starter for some teams.

Has information on practically every Japanese or Korean player of interest.

[flatjacket1]

I see him more as a back-end rotation or reliever with 3 upside (the stuff I've been reading about him working in the mid 90s just isn't true), but for the likely price, he deserves a look.

It's pretty impossible to project how Korean guys will fair over here. They work guys backwards over there, a lot of times starters only really need 1 good pitch to dominate. The whole landscape of the game is different over there.

I still see the point in going after Korean starters, but to expect them to be anything but bullpen at this point, this early into the Korean/US exchange on players, is hard. I think he could easily have 3 upside, but could also be an ace or a back of the bullpen guy (maybe even a bust).

Again, I love the Korean market, I think it is underrated and there is a ton of talent to be had, but projections; good or bad, are hard.

[CPT]

I see him more as a back-end rotation or reliever with 3 upside (the stuff I've been reading about him working in the mid 90s just isn't true), but for the likely price, he deserves a look.

It's pretty impossible to project how Korean guys will fair over here. They work guys backwards over there, a lot of times starters only really need 1 good pitch to dominate. The whole landscape of the game is different over there.

I still see the point in going after Korean starters, but to expect them to be anything but bullpen at this point, this early into the Korean/US exchange on players, is hard. I think he could easily have 3 upside, but could also be an ace or a back of the bullpen guy (maybe even a bust).

Again, I love the Korean market, I think it is underrated and there is a ton of talent to be had, but projections; good or bad, are hard.

Definitely can't argue with that, but for the price, there was a lot of upside to be had.

Well, assuming the Tigers would have accepted a slightly higher bid. Rumours pegged it at somewhere between 750K and 2M, and he likely would have been looking for a contract in the 2-3M range.

I should note that a bunch of guys are getting big contracts in the KBO these days. Plenty of guys making a mil or more, and a bunch of guys making 2+. This offseason, utility IF were getting 750K, when a few years ago, that would be among the highest salaries in the league. Yang and Kim both returned to the KBO after low ball offers (posting fee and contract, respectively). Kang's fee was over 5M, but there's already speculation that they may not be able to work out a contract. In any event, KBO talent is only going to get more expensive from here on out.