RealGM

Hey guys,

It's been a long drought.

I'm far from a baseball pro or advanced stats guru, I was much more into it during my fantasy baseball years. Being overseas makes it hard to catch up with Jays games, but I've been watching the highlights and wild card race closely for a large chunk of the season.

Can you provide some perspective on what it will take to get this team moving in a playoff direction? We have a pretty competitive/talented team, so why can't we get over that hump? Is it injuries? Is it the stacked division? it looks like every time Lawrie goes down we lose major momentum.

What are your ideas to turn this thing around?

Move Reyes to second. Politely ask everyone to stop getting hurt. Make the bullpen stop being terrible. Play the best players available next September.

Improve the defense and bullpen, and find a capable two-way 2B. That's really all I can think of. The rotation is solid enough and the offense (while streaky) has enough talent. If they start focusing on run prevention a little more, it might balance out their strengths and weaknesses. Unfortunately, Reyes at short and Navarro at catcher seems unavoidable for next season. That won't help.

Michael Bradley wrote:If they start focusing on run prevention a little more, it might balance out their strengths and weaknesses. Unfortunately, Reyes at short and Navarro at catcher seems unavoidable for next season. That won't help.

Pitch framing is not the only aspect of being a catcher- Navarro is a good defensive catcher. I too would love Russell Martin but lets focus on second, left, centre and the bullpen.

I still think it's a mistake to look at this rotation and say that it will be good enough for next season. Buehrle and Dickey are another year older and you have no idea what the sophomore seasons for Hutch and Stroman are going to bring. Happ as a #5 is fine, but your top 4 isn't exactly carrying you during the cold streaks that this (and most baseball teams) go through offensively during a season.

The biggest issue on offense is the massive chasm in talent that this lineup trots out. We have 3-4 All-Star level players and then the bottom half of the order is terrible. You don't need to have 8 All-Star hitters in the lineup, but our sub-core (guys like Lawrie, Lind, Rasmus, JPA of years past) have been wildly inconsistent and often injured. It might take some luck, but they really just have to fill out the missing pieces with actual and capable MLB talent rather than trying to play a bunch of AAAA or minor-league level talent on a day-to-day basis. The Jays core of hitters is definitely good enough to win, but they've been surrounded by a bunch of hacks. Go out and get some major leaguers that don't strike out a ton, maybe they walk a bit, maybe some of them can actually lay down a bunt or put the ball in play with a runner on 3rd. You don't need .295 hitters, but you need some better vets to round out this lineup.

AA has never put a premium on defense and that's definitely shown the past few years. And, finally, like everyone else said, hopefully they can put together another bullpen that doesn't completely implode next year. It seems to only implode bi-annually so next year they should be fine.

It all depends on what Rogers gives AA to spend. If it's even less than this year, then they're relying purely on health and luck and that won't be good enough. If they fill out the roster with cheap kiddos and stick with the same rotation next year then they'll probably be even worse than this year. They've not given me any faith that they'll compete next year based on everything they've done since the end of last season.

Platooning Lind and Valencia would be fine if the team was allowed to spend money.

Fire AA and Beeston

stop giving bench players a fifth of the team's total plate appearances. definitely move reyes off SS. add another very good starting pitcher. add a dependable reliever or two. hope for some better health and lots of luck. just play better overall.

It's not even playing bench players; it's giving AB's to players who do not belong in the Majors (Goins, Sierra, Thole, Getz, Mastro, etc). You're never going to have a bench full of players who can start (otherwise they'd be starters), but having players that are at least MLB calibre is very important. Mayberry can hit LHP. Valencia can hit LHP and back-up Lawrie when he gets hurt again. Izturis is questionable due to injury but prior to 2013 was a more than capable utility IF. Hopefully they can keep Fat Juan and Kawasaki in AAA in case of injury. If Pompey isn't shoe-horned into a starting role, he is solid depth in AAA in case an OF goes down. It's starting to improve, but what Alex had in 2014 was embarrassing and likely a big reason why they won't make the playoffs this year.

- Move Reyes to second
- get a SS that can play defense and hold his own at the plate - Ryan Goins isn't going to cut it. I still think Stephen Drew would be a decent cheap pickup
- get a couple more veteran arms in the pen to replace Casey and Delabar
- keep Melky and sign a new CF
- Get an MLB caliber bench. Muni is a start, we need guys that know the fundamentals - can take pitches, don't strike out a ton, can lay a bunt down

Michael Bradley wrote:It's not even playing bench players; it's giving AB's to players who do not belong in the Majors (Goins, Sierra, Thole, Getz, Mastro, etc). You're never going to have a bench full of players who can start (otherwise they'd be starters), but having players that are at least MLB calibre is very important.

gose, muni, valencia, pillar, kratz, thole, and goins are bench players (whether you qualify them as such or not) that are capable of playing at this level, but obviously only in a seldom used role (as defensive subs in the case of gose, pillar, goins), that have accounted for a fifth of the team's total PA's this season. they are who i am referring to.

Offense isn't the problem for this team, although we could certainly stand more offensive consistency. I would focus my efforts on improving the bullpen and team defense. Of course I'd love to pick up a legitimate #1 or #2 starter and splurge on a top-flight outfielder, catcher or infielder, but it seems none of that is in the budget.

Assuming the team budget doesn't decrease, there should be enough money to pick up some veteran arms for the pen.

Defensively, improvements can come from:

- having a Gose/Pillar platoon in CF (which also means having a good defensive 4th outfielder available for late-game substitutions)
- moving Reyes to 3B to hide his lack of range and moving Lawrie to 2B. Or moving Reyes to 2B, keeping Lawrie at 3rd, and getting a decent defensive short-stop.
- signing an above-average defensive catcher (which means no more Thole) to take more playing time from Navarro

These moves make us much stronger defensively, particularly up the middle, without sacrificing much offensively relative to this year.

Offensively we'll have much better matchup flexibility out of the gate with Valencia (or Mayberry)/Lind and Gose/Pillar platoons in addition to a healthy switch-hitting Izturis. No more watching Lind and Rasmus hack away at lefties. So long as we keep Melky or sign someone similar the offense should be near the top of the league once again.

Will it be enough? With enough health, possibly. They'd need more luck than they've had the last two years, that's for sure.

Were they really that unhealthy or unlucky this year?

Sure, they lost Edwin, Lind, and Lawrie for a month at the same time but they were already plummeting before any of those guys went down and were still in striking distance when they came back only to post another pedestrian 6-week record. On top of that Lind and Lawrie both have significant injury history. Reyes, Bautista, and Melky were all healthy the entire year while the Jays were still in the playoff hunt.

I feel like this was the healthiest year we've seen from the Jays in ages.

Santoki wrote:Were they really that unhealthy or unlucky this year?

Sure, they lost Edwin, Lind, and Lawrie for a month at the same time but they were already plummeting before any of those guys went down and were still in striking distance when they came back only to post another pedestrian 6-week record. On top of that Lind and Lawrie both have significant injury history. Reyes, Bautista, and Melky were all healthy the entire year while the Jays were still in the playoff hunt.

I feel like this was the healthiest year we've seen from the Jays in ages.

they were pretty healthy overall. but barring any major upgrades in significant off-season additions, they'll need to be even healthier and luckier next season to win 90 or more i think.

Since the Yankees were perennial contenders with Jeter, I have a hard time believing that having Reyes at shortstop is preventing this team from making the playoffs

UN-Owen wrote:Since the Yankees were perennial contenders with Jeter, I have a hard time believing that having Reyes at shortstop is preventing this team from making the playoffs

While I don't believe that Jeter's decline has any correlation with the Yankees being not as good the past 4 or so years, it bears noting that the "perennial contender" years of these Yankees were when Jeter was still an elite-to-above average fielder, not the one we've been seeing the past little while.

So Reyes to the Yanks for Brett Gardner? Done.

MikeM wrote:So Reyes to the Yanks for Brett Gardner? Done.

i actually have always liked reyes and i actually can't stand brett gardner, but where the hell do i sign?

UN-Owen wrote:Since the Yankees were perennial contenders with Jeter, I have a hard time believing that having Reyes at shortstop is preventing this team from making the playoffs

Would they have been better with Jeter at third and A-Rod (who was an excellent shortstop defender when he moved over) at SS? Almost certainly. But the difference between 101 wins and 102 wins isn't terribly meaningful. The difference between 90 and 91-92 might be, however, and that's why moving Reyes to second is a pressing need for a lot of people...getting, as an example, JJ Hardy to play short with Reyes shifting to 2B likely improves the team more than any 2B addition we're likely to find on the open market.

MikeM wrote:So Reyes to the Yanks for Brett Gardner? Done.

Yeah, I'd do that, and I too am not a Gardner fan (nor of his contract). That would free up an additional $10M to do something productive with, though it would probably mean no more Melky since we'd now need a SS and a 2B (instead of just one of them).