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Josh Donaldson is unlikely to become a Hall of Famer, but he's certainly in the midst of one of the most unusual careers I can remember. Look at where Donaldson stood entering the 2013 season. The one-time minor league catcher, who had been acquired from the Cubs in 2008, was entering his age-27 season and had appeared briefly with the A's in 2010 and then hit .241/.289/.398 in 75 games in 2012, playing regularly at third base down the stretch. Still, that batting line hardly indicated a player who was about to blossom into one of the best players in the league.

The trouble with proving or disproving the hypothesis he has already peaked is that Donaldson's career arc is so unusual that there just aren't other players like him. I went searching for players since 1950 who were among the best in baseball in their age 27-28 seasons but who hadn't done much before that to see if there was somebody comparable -- and then to see how those players aged.

Donaldson was even better than his actual 2014 batting line. While he did substantial damage on fly balls — .341 AVG-1.081 SLG, for a REL PRD of 201 — his hard/soft fly ball rates indicate that he would have done substantially more damage (275 ADJ PRD) in a neutral park. Put him in Toronto, and his TOR PRD surges further to 327.

Donaldson was incredibly unlucky on line drives in 2014, batting only .560 AVG-.840 SLG for an 81 REL PRD. Adjustment for context boosts that number considerably to 121 REL PRD in a neutral park to 134 in Skydome, where line drives to Donaldson’s preferred sector of the field often leave the building. Donaldson’s grounders are hit hard as well (151 REL PRD), though he was a bit lucky on them in 2014; adjustment for context brings his grounder ADJ PRD to 134, and his TOR PRD to 131.

On all BIP, Donaldson posted a solid but unspectacular 115 REL PRD, while the adjustment for context turbocharges that number to 139 in a neutral park, and 152 with half of his games played in Toronto. Add back his favorable K and BB data, and Donaldson’s 124 REL PRD surges to a 144 true-talent ADJ PRD, and an MVP-candidate worthy 156 when playing his home games in Toronto.

Basically, he was a .275-.355-.501 true-talent player in 2014, with a .283-.362-.534 projection as a part-time Skydome resident. It’s not a one-season aberration, either; his true-talent level was approximately .287-.370-.504 in 2013. The likely temporary reduction in his liner rate is the main difference between the two seasons. Josh Donaldson is a stud offensive player sitting squarely in his prime.

Graham's Cracker wrote:There's also this interesting analysis from Tony Blengino last month.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/some-belated-thoughts-on-the-josh-donaldson-deal/

satyr9 wrote:

Graham's Cracker wrote:There's also this interesting analysis from Tony Blengino last month.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/some-belated-thoughts-on-the-josh-donaldson-deal/

Just in case.

I get why Toronto made this deal. I think there’s a pretty decent chance he lives up to the contract, even if he’ll likely be perceived as a bust for not repeating his 2010 line each year going forward. However, for me, I’m not sure Toronto got enough of a discount on his expected free agent price to absorb the extra risk of doing this deal now. If my option was take this deal now or let him play out 2011 and re-evaluate at the end of the year, I think I would have waited.

So, while Bautista doesn’t have the quantity of performance, the level of quality that he’s putting up should more than make up for it.

Graham's Cracker wrote:

satyr9 wrote:

Graham's Cracker wrote:There's also this interesting analysis from Tony Blengino last month.

Just in case.

Ahh.. yes! Knew I was missing something there. Worth reading the entire analysis at the link.

I remember the debate at the time when Jose signed his contract extension. A lot of people felt that the Jays were taking some risk by giving him that much money citing the lack of track record of success.

From Dave Cameron at the time:

I get why Toronto made this deal. I think there’s a pretty decent chance he lives up to the contract, even if he’ll likely be perceived as a bust for not repeating his 2010 line each year going forward. However, for me, I’m not sure Toronto got enough of a discount on his expected free agent price to absorb the extra risk of doing this deal now. If my option was take this deal now or let him play out 2011 and re-evaluate at the end of the year, I think I would have waited.

In a follow-up piece (when Cameron admitted he was wrong), he had the following to say when comparing what Bautista would have gotten on the FA market vs some comparable names.

So, while Bautista doesn’t have the quantity of performance, the level of quality that he’s putting up should more than make up for it.

This to me seems like Donaldson all over again.