RealGM

From Gibby

Reyes
Martin
Bautista
EE
Donaldson
Navarro
Suanders
Pompey
2B to be determined

Not really a fan of this order. I don't get Martin batting second (he is a great player, but not a great offensive weapon). I also don't really want to see Jose, EE, Donaldson at 3,4,5 because they are all RHB.

Would make more sense to go

Reyes
Bautista
Navarro
EE
Donaldson
Saunders
Martin
Pompey
Travis or other

Is this a joke? You want to bat Dinner third and drop Donaldson to 5th because Donaldson is a RHB? A phrase about noses spiteing faces comes to mind.

To me it's:
Reyes
Bautista
Donaldson
Encarnacion
Martin/Navarro
Saunders
Smoak/Valencia/Navarro
Kawasaki/Tolleson
Pompey/Pillar

Having 4 RHBs like that in a row isn't a huge problem; they don't have big platoon splits, and they'll likely face righties most of the time either way. But it can be leveraged by putting Saunders up there in the 3 spot to break them. It allows him to face a lot of RHP in that part of the lineup, and less LOOGYs. And if teams do bring in a LOOGY to face him, then they burn through an extra RH reliever. There's also Smoak we can put in the 4 spot if he hits well. But I don't think Dioner Navarro makes sense in the lineup at all to be honest, because he's not a better hitter than Smoak, and there's a defensive downgrade by having Edwin at 1B rather than Smoak.

Skin Blues wrote:Having 4 RHBs like that in a row isn't a huge problem; they don't have big platoon splits, and they'll likely face righties most of the time either way. But it can be leveraged by putting Saunders up there in the 3 spot to break them. It allows him to face a lot of RHP in that part of the lineup, and less LOOGYs. And if teams do bring in a LOOGY to face him, then they burn through an extra RH reliever. There's also Smoak we can put in the 4 spot if he hits well. But I don't think Dioner Navarro makes sense in the lineup at all to be honest, because he's not a better hitter than Smoak, and there's a defensive downgrade by having Edwin at 1B rather than Smoak.

That's actually not a bad point that I hadn't thought of at all. IMO, Lind greatly benefited last year when he was hitting 4th between Bautista and Encarnacion because no one wants to waste their LHP for one guy. I hated it when Gibby first did it (why give EE less PA just for balance), but it was for Lind more than anything and I was wrong. That's probably a good reason to take Donaldson out of my spot between them as it would limit, even more, his chances to see LHP. In that respect, hitting Donaldson behind Saunders against RHP and in front against LHP might be best. Against RHP, they'll want to bring in a reliever for Saunders, but Donaldson's behind. Against LHP they'll want to keep them in to face Saunders, but have Donaldson in front. Although more realistically that's likely to be how you deal with a Smoak/Valencia platoon and Saunders as Donaldson will just be higher up regardless. If you can't tell yet, I'm looking forward to seeing him hit 80games in Skydome.

But back to the general point, alternating between sides as often as possible is really important to insulate guys with big splits far more than it is to protect your stars, who can hopefully hit pretty well against both sides. The lineup should just be best hitters in descending order, with a focus on OBP over SLG at the very top, and then find your splits and try to protect them. Other than that if you go 5LH/4RH in order or a perfect back and forth, it doesn't really matter.

It makes some sense to slot Martin at 2nd at least to start. If he's anywhere close to his .402 OBP from last year he'll be a major asset in that spot. On his days off you can slot Travis/Izturis or Pompey/Pillar into the 2-hole, or if Bautista is willing, move each of the big 3 (Bau/JD/EE) up a spot.

Have to consider 2 seperate lineups vs RHP and vs LHP.

VS LHP we should crush most pitchers outside of the elite ones, even then I would hate facing this lineup as a lefty. All of them outside of Pompey have at least a slightly favorable split towards LHP.

Reyes 6
Martin 2
Bautista 9
Donaldson 5
Encarnacion dh
Valencia 3
Tolleson 4
Pompey 8
Pillar 7

vs RHP

Reyes 6
Martin 2
Bautista 9
Encarnacion 3
Donaldson 5
Saunders 7
Navarro dh
Izturis 4
Pompey 8

BigLeagueChew wrote:Have to consider 2 seperate lineups vs RHP and vs LHP.

VS LHP we should crush most pitchers outside of the elite ones, even then I would hate facing this lineup as a lefty. All of them outside of Pompey have at least a slightly favorable split towards LHP.

Reyes 6
Martin 2
Bautista 9
Donaldson 5
Encarnacion dh
Valencia 3
Tolleson 4
Pompey 8
Pillar 7

vs RHP

Reyes 6
Martin 2
Bautista 9
Encarnacion 3
Donaldson 5
Saunders 7
Navarro dh
Izturis 4
Pompey 8

Saunders starts everyday.

torontoaces04 wrote:
Saunders starts everyday.

Benched Saunders because of career .280 OBP vs lefties.

Pompey may not even have a .280 OBP versus righties, let alone lefties. If they want to platoon PIllar with anybody, it'll likely be Pompey. I can't see Saunders as anything but a full-time player when healthy.

The graphic on state of the union had Smoak instead of Navarro.

BigLeagueChew wrote:Have to consider 2 seperate lineups vs RHP and vs LHP.

VS LHP we should crush most pitchers outside of the elite ones, even then I would hate facing this lineup as a lefty. All of them outside of Pompey have at least a slightly favorable split towards LHP.

Reyes 6
Martin 2
Bautista 9
Donaldson 5
Encarnacion dh
Valencia 3
Tolleson 4
Pompey 8
Pillar 7

vs RHP

Reyes 6
Martin 2
Bautista 9
Encarnacion 3
Donaldson 5
Saunders 7
Navarro dh
Izturis 4
Pompey 8

It also seems like we struggle against lefties both elite and soft-tossing. I don't have any numbers to back it up but I just remember them having issues with those kinds of guys the last couple of years.

Navarro better not be starting DH.

Smoak/Valencia at 1B, Edwin at DH. Also use DH to rest Reyes and Bautista from time to time.

Navarro still being on this team sucks. Gibbons will play him way more than he should, unfortunately.

Michael Bradley wrote:Navarro better not be starting DH.

Smoak/Valencia at 1B, Edwin at DH. Also use DH to rest Reyes and Bautista from time to time.

Navarro still being on this team sucks. Gibbons will play him way more than he should, unfortunately.

What are you saying? Navarro should NOT be our #3 hitter like this guy wants?

I have my personal preferences for the Saunders/Pompey/Pillar platoon or Smoak/Valencia/Navarro platoons, but I think we can all agree it's close enough that the actual 2015 performances and injuries will dictate who's platooned and who isn't far more than career OBP splits.

Saunders could get hurt or be Lind-y against LHP and need to be platooned while Pompey breaks out. Or Pompey could bust and Saunders plays every day despite Lind-y splits because it's an even more derpish Dirks/Pillar platoon in LF.

And saying Smoak is a better hitter than Dinner is fine in theory (10points better career by wRC+), but Smoak might not even make it out of camp if he looks like last year's 202/275/339 version. Dinner might just make a better DH than a Barton/Valencia platoon.

Also, keep in mind Dinner's had some very strong stretches in the last few years. He put up 295/339/450 in the second half of '14, including fantastic numbers in the terribly small sample size we used him as a DH and he had a completely ridiculously flukey strong 2013 too. Taking the toll off his obviously less than peak physical shape that catching every day entails and he might just be a pretty damn solid hitter. I'm not saying you bat him third or anything, but there is some evidence to support a theory that he could win primary DH PAs even as the 2C.

Even if he's not the primary DH, I'd expect he'll get at least 30ish starts at DH. A healthy Martin leaves 30-40 games for a back-up and another 30 gets Navarro 70ish starts, that wouldn't shock me at all even if he's more his career norms in 2015.

I read a report on Blue Jay banter that Gibby said yesterday they have Goins penciled in as the 2B right now

Santoki wrote:
It also seems like we struggle against lefties both elite and soft-tossing. I don't have any numbers to back it up but I just remember them having issues with those kinds of guys the last couple of years.

Yup. Jays slash line vs lefties last season was:
.247/.311/.389/.699
league avg:
.253/.330/.424/.755

We're adding Donaldson, Martin to that slash line and for injury and depth reasons we gave away at bats putting Francisco, Gose,Lind and a few others in the lineup when they shouldn't have been playing.

its gonna start like this

reyes
jose
ee
donaldson
martin
saunders
navarro
travis/izturis/goins
pompey

or

reyes
martin
jose
ee
donaldson
saunders
navarro
travis/izturis/goins
pompey

satyr9 wrote:Is this a joke? You want to bat Dinner third and drop Donaldson to 5th because Donaldson is a RHB? A phrase about noses spiteing faces comes to mind.

To me it's:
Reyes
Bautista
Donaldson
Encarnacion
Martin/Navarro
Saunders
Smoak/Valencia/Navarro
Kawasaki/Tolleson
Pompey/Pillar

I'm not dropping Donaldson. They had him 5th too. I'm suggesting Jose be moved from 3 to 2 and Martin be dropped. How is this a bad idea and you think putting Saunders at the top is better. Have you looked at Navarro and Saunders stats?

None of the rest matters; Dinner third with the rest of the lineup they have is wrong. In a subjective world with any number of answers, that's not one of them.

Personally, I'd go with:

vR

Reyes/Martin/Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson/Saunders/Smoak/Pompey/2B mystery bag

vL

Reyes/Martin/Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson/Valencia/Saunders/Pompey/2B mystery bag


Saunders has a left/right split, but he's certainly not Lind in that regard; he does enough, and as recently as 2012 carried a reverse split on a high number of PAs. Pompey/Pillar vL is debatable, but I'm not convinced that Pillar's good numbers against lefties was much other than a massively lucky small sample, and Pompey's the superior defender and the player most in need of everyday reps from a development standpoint.