RealGM

Since the other thread went to hell, thought it'd be worth a post outlining exactly who the contenders are for the bullpen jobs. Most of this isn't new information for the vast majority here, but it's **** snow-raining for roughly the 30th consecutive day and my surroundings are a frozen and slushy hellscape one flurry away from the end of civilization and thus I have nothing better to do. Feel free to use this space to instead complain about the mascot or what have ye.

Cecil, Loup, Redmond and one of Sanchez/Estrada (with the other in the rotation) look likely; Jenkins/Delabar/Drabek need little introduction. The rest of the 40-man options/non-roster invites are:


- Wilton Lopez. Right-handed groundball artist, posted excellent numbers (ERA of 2.64 over 204.1 IP with the components to match) over three seasons as the Astros' setup man, despite the confusion that would arise from the fact that the Astros had need for a setup man. Spent most of 2014 in AAA Colorado Springs. Excellent control, gets a surprising number of swings on pitches out of the zone for a guy who isn't afraid of contact.

Upside: has been there before, and has excelled in the role.

Downside: in limited time last year, his fastball was down...that's not necessarily fatal for a grounder-heavy pitcher, but doesn't help. In recent years, while he gives up next to no flyballs, his line drive rate has skyrocketed; hitters have been increasingly able to make hard contact.



- Gregory Infante. Right-handed fireballer, throwing in the high 90s (and touching 100 last year). Minor league peripherals have always been delightfully bad for a guy who throws that hard; he gave up close to a hit per inning most years, didn't strike out as many as one would expect with that stuff, and walked a tonne in the process. Last year though, the light turned on; the fact that both his hits and walks per nine fell indicate that he didn't merely gain some semblance of control around the zone, but actually demonstrated some command within it. Strikeout rate still wasn't otherworldly, but his components from a year ago play.

Upside: the stuff is there. The command might be there.

Downside: previously, while the stuff was there, it was also frequently over there too, and there, and occasionally in the broadcast booth. Sudden acquisition of command at 26 in AA leaves open the possibility that it isn't here to stay.



- Matt West. Right-handed former infielder who was converted to a pitcher after 2010. Struggled '12 and '13, partially owing to injury (leading to TJ) but had a great 2014 in the upper minors, putting up over 11 K/9 in the difficult environs of the PCL, with a manageable walk rate. Fastball sits 95, and is his primary weapon, but his changeup/slurvy breaking ball have gotten decent reviews as well, particularly the change. Has a grand total of 117.2 IP at all levels under his belt since the conversion.

Upside: has back-end 'pen stuff. Rather good control given how new he is to pitching, and compares favourably to the path taken by Sergio Santos (the one who was good, not the one who turned into a thin paste of ex-pitcher) in that regard. Has back-end 'pen hair, if this is 1993.

Downside: extremely inexperienced. Only 60 total IP between AA/AAA/majors, all coming last year.



- Rob Rasmussen. Left-handed, has a starter's arsenal of four pitches but was converted to relief last season, and saw 11.1 IP in the bigs for the Jays last year. Sits 93 and his two breaking balls add enough to make him a potentially effective reliever.

Upside: that's fairly big stuff for a lefty, and his swinging strike rate with the Jays was good. Very small sample, but lefties in particular struggled to make contact against him.

Downside: somewhere along the line he traded his control for a couple extra ticks on his fastball. While a whiff-generating reliever can tolerate a somewhat-above-average walk rate, Rasmussen was quite wild last year, which works against his potential to be used as a same-handed weapon.



- Scott Barnes. Left-handed, fastball/slider mix, with the latter being his calling card, has generated big strikeout totals in the minors. Has also generated fairly big walk totals, though (with the exception of a complete implosion in 2013) he doesn't get touched up for many hits.

Upside: his slider might make him a better LOOGY candidate than Rasmussen, though in a small sample he has no serious splits.

Downside: locked in a protracted struggle with Locatus, the minor deity who lords over release points.



- Ryan Tepera. Right-handed, Jays draftee and former starter for whom 2014 was his first full season in relief; posted good numbers in AAA, with his walk and strikeout rates diverging nicely. Mid-90s fastball, solid slider, and a newly-developed splitter that seems to be fairly well-regarded. Limited homers fairly well throughout his minor league career, and they dropped a bit further last season. Nothing about his numbers last year scream elite, but everything adds up. Jays added him to the 40-man because he was a likely Rule 5 candidate.

Upside: of the guys with good-to-great stuff, he probably is the most likely to throw the ball in the general direction of the plate most nights.

Downside: wasn't spectacular in AAA, and gives up hits; some of the others have a chance to be 8th inning types if it clicks, Tepera might be a mid-'pen guy unless his secondary stuff really plays up.



- Preston Guilmet. Soft-tossing righty with a strange delivery that seems to baffle minor league hitters. Throws in the zone.

Upside: His minor league components are damned near elite.

Downside: Soft-tossing righties with strange deliveries that seems to baffle minor league hitters generally don't have quite the same effect on major league hitters.



- Bo Schultz. Mid-90s three-pitch (FB/SL/CH) righty, primarily used as a starter in the minors, won't be used as starter in the majors.

Upside: repertoire is relievery.

Downside: results have not been. Saw his K rate jump in 2013 after being moved to the 'pen, but hitters haven't had much trouble squaring him up at any level.



- Colt Hynes. Soft-tossing sinker/slider righty with good command.

Upside: won't be all that badly missed when we have to add someone else to the 40-man and he's DFA'd.

Downside: is on the 40-man.



- John Stilson. Right-handed, fastball in the mid/high 90s, tricky delivery and a good changeup (plus not always as good breaking stuff). Gets grounders. Had a great 2013 in Buffalo followed by a somewhat less great 2014, probably because he needed yet another shoulder surgery.

Upside: has been a projected setup guy/closer ever since the Jays gave in to reality and moved him to the bullpen. Was a big-time prospect before his arm turned into a demolition derby.

Downside: puzzled over actually including him because he's coming off a torn labrum. He seems to think he'll be ready though; he's probably alone in that belief (labrum surgery ain't easy to overcome), but hey. Probably an option at some point, if he recovers.



- Jeff Francis. Lol.

Interesting. I think going into the season with this cast of characters might be okay. Give the unknowns a chance to assert themselves. If that doesn't work out, we might have to acquire a more established reliever or two, mid-season.

There's ample room for concern over the back of the bullpen. Cecil is the only one with extended experience back there that also was good last year. Delabar and Lopez have done it before, but not last year. Sanchez did it last year, but he doesn't have much experience. I like Loup a lot, but not so much yet in the 8th inning.

I feel a lot better about our middle relief and injury relief though. Rasmussen has shown enough to make me think he's capable of the third lefty role. Redmond has been nothing but solid the last couple years. Same with Jenkins. Then we have a lot of wild cards in Guilmet/Delabar/Drabek/West/Lopez/Tepera/Perez/Stilson... you've got to think the odds are on our side that at least one of those guys works out.

Without Sanchez (and with Estrada as the fifth starter), the 'everything went better than expected' looks something like:

Cecil closes. The goggles, they do everything.
Delabar returns to form and serves as the eighth-inning guy. Could possibly swap he and Cecil, but I'm a fan of Cecil's homer suppression.
Loup tames his (mildish) control issues to be the high-leverage lefty; I'm fairly confident he can handle that already.
Lopez or Jenkins serve as a full-inning, grounder-heavy seventh inning option.
West or Infante slot in as full-inning options, and as a righty to lean on for strikeouts.
Rasmussen or Barnes serve as a sort of hybrid lefty specialist/two-inning guy.
Redmond does that thing where he's surprisingly effective in relief despite looking like he's not particularly good.

Yeah, if it's between 2013 Delabar and 2013-2014 Cecil for the closer, I go with Cecil no question. And if it's between Cecil and the relatively inexperienced Sanchez, I also go with Cecil no question (though I may be biased, since I want Sanchez starting). I think Cecil will be just fine back there. We just need to get him the ball without coughing up leads late.

the biggest problem with the bullpen right now, lets say everything or almost everything goes just about right, some guys shows up that struggled before or out of nowhere, everyone is healthy...then the bullpen would look good, good enough to contend with the offense and starters...but i dont know if so much can go right for us in the bullpen, maybe we get lucky though cus even though this depth can be maybe get lucky for u, becus there is some potential there, it can also pretty easily turn into garbage

Cecil (closer), Sanchez, Loup, Lopez, Delabar, Rasmussen, Redmond.

That's my guess as of today. Obviously ST performance and Sanchez's role will determine what actually happens.

Rasmussen looked nervous and out of his element in his brief stints last year. He seems like someone who can easily be replaced with a 40-man guy who has a hot Spring.

Santoki wrote:Rasmussen looked nervous and out of his element in his brief stints last year. He seems like someone who can easily be replaced with a 40-man guy who has a hot Spring.

He did look nervous. If anything I take it as a positive as despite being nervous he still managed to be somewhat effective. Like most people he'll probably get over the nerves with more experience.

In Buffalo last year in 43 innings he didn't allow a single HR and posted a K:9 of 9.2. I think he'll probably be fine as the 3rd lefty; to be anything more he'll need to improve his control a bit.

I like keeping Sanchez in the pen for an entire year baring any major injuries to the projected starting rotation (Dickey, Buerhle, Stroman, Hutchison, Estrada / Norris / insert player here).

So many young pitcher's arms are about ready to fall off after they make their big league debuts. Most recently, Hutchison is a good example, of promising starter who then suffered a serious injury (I believe to his pitching arm), though Morrow also comes to mind. I get the counter point about maximizing asset value of your draft picks but there is a fine line between asset maximization and asset protection. Hopefully, there is enough veteran performance from the starters to let Aaron develop arm strength and stamina while still contributing at the major league level to another potential playoff drought ending run.

The problem with the bullpen is that there's way too many "if/maybe" players. This is more hoping for a good result than planning for a good result.

If delbar didnt suck last year he probly be a lock for set up and maybe closer.Rather see sanchez as a starter dont know much about estrda but from what i read hear,he gets alot homeruns hit on him so rather see him least as possible.

It's become increasingly clear to me from his interviews that AA is really hoping for Norris to excel in ST and take the 5th SP role. That would push both Sanchez and Estrada to the bullpen, leaving the need for only 2 of these 10+ guys to hit.

Randle McMurphy wrote:It's become increasingly clear to me from his interviews that AA is really hoping for Norris to excel in ST and take the 5th SP role. That would push both Sanchez and Estrada to the bullpen, leaving the need for only 2 of these 10+ guys to hit.

Yeah I think Sanchez to the pen is pretty much a lock now based on AA's interview with PTS last night. It's just a matter of Estrada vs. Norris for the fifth starter spot now. AA seems pretty confident that Sanchez could turn into a starter again post-2015. I'm not looking forward to replacing Buehrle's 200 innings in 2016 with Sanchez coming off 70 relief innings.

I guess there is always a chance that Sanchez makes the rotation if he pitches well enough in Spring Training, but at this rate it would probably take a Roger Clemens circa 1997 level performance in ST for that to happen.

DFA Drabek.

BigLeagueChew wrote:DFA Drabek.

No reason to at the moment; he isn't blocking anyone who needs to join the 40-man, and we have other sacrificial lambs to boot. Wouldn't be the least bit shocking if we did have to DFA him in late-March when it comes time to sort out the roster, though.

The Jays certainly are starting to talk up Miguel Castro. Though he's likely starting in Dunedin, a fast track to the bullpen at Rogers Centre seems to be in the cards a la Norris and Graveman who raced through the minors last year. A guy able to bring 98 mph and sometimes tops 100 mph would be an ideal seventh or eighth inning guy, like Sanchez was late last year.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/02/24 ... -the-heat/

Randle McMurphy wrote:It's become increasingly clear to me from his interviews that AA is really hoping for Norris to excel in ST and take the 5th SP role. That would push both Sanchez and Estrada to the bullpen, leaving the need for only 2 of these 10+ guys to hit.

That's what it sounds like. But once again our GM is "hoping" instead of planning. I'm not really going to cut any slack on this until/unless he makes a move and starts to actually plan for success.

Joba Chamberlain signed for 1 year, $1 million with reachable incentives for $500k today. 60 innings of 3.50-3.75 ERA ball from Joba sure would have gone a long way to making our bullpen look like more legit. I'm surprised at that price point that we couldn't be in on him.

baulderdash77 wrote:

Randle McMurphy wrote:It's become increasingly clear to me from his interviews that AA is really hoping for Norris to excel in ST and take the 5th SP role. That would push both Sanchez and Estrada to the bullpen, leaving the need for only 2 of these 10+ guys to hit.

That's what it sounds like. But once again our GM is "hoping" instead of planning. I'm not really going to cut any slack on this until/unless he makes a move and starts to actually plan for success.

What would planning for success looking like when you're talking about a bullpen? What moves would you suggest would cover that gap, because in my experience while some teams have more reason to hope than others, few have anything approaching an actual plan to ensure quality relief. Our best 'pens over the years have been assembled from spare parts, while some of our worst have involved well-regarded relievers for whom assets/significant contracts were coughed up.

Joba Chamberlain signed for 1 year, $1 million with reachable incentives for $500k today. 60 innings of 3.50-3.75 ERA ball from Joba sure would have gone a long way to making our bullpen look like more legit. I'm surprised at that price point that we couldn't be in on him.

Apparently turned down more money from the Rangers/others to re-sign with the Tigers.