RealGM

Locked Positions
C: R.Martin
1B: E.Encarnacion (he may start more at DH depending on the battle outcome, but for 25-man roster purposes he's obviously locked in)
SS: J.Reyes
3B: J.Donaldson
LF: K.Pillar (like EE, he may shift position, depending on Saunders, but his roster spot is, by my account anyway, assured).
CF: D.Pompey
RF:J.Bautista
CI: D.Valencia

Battles
2B: D.Travis, M.Izturis, R.Goins
DH: J.Smoak, D.Navarro
2C: D.Navarro, J.Thole
MI: D.Travis, M.Izturis, R.Goins
4OF: M.Saunders, D.Viciedo, 8th RP???(Saunders health related)

Locked Pitchers
SP: R.Dickey
SP:M.Buehrle
SP:D.Hutchison
SP:A.Sanchez
CL:B.Cecil
LRP:A.Loup
RRP: S.Delabar
RRP: T.Redmond
RRP: C.Jenkins

Battles
SP: M.Estrada, D.Norris
2xRP: M.Estrada,C.Hynes, B.Schultz, M.Castro, W.Lopez, S.Barnes, K.Drabek

While I've listed 4 positional battles, there's really only 2.

There's MI battle, 2 of 3 stay (I still think it's Maicer and Goins to start, but Travis is obviously pushing Maicer and it's not like Izturis would get claimed if you waived him, although he can likely refuse the assignment, I'd have to check that).

The other positional battle is actually Thole vs. Smoak vs. Viciedo. Viciedo is really only on the list if Saunders looks like he needs time near the end). I can't see Barton realistically still in the mix. He was going to have to rake to ever make it and isn't. 2 of those guys could come until Saunders returns, but there's really only 1 spot, the interim spot might be an 8th RP instead if Saunders is close and it's just about retaining options. I don't like 3 catchers either, but this year is decidedly different than last year. Navarro is not Kratz, if Thole beats out Smoak it'll be because Navarro is the every day DH. But I have no idea how taxing catching Dickey is. Really, I'm so sick of the **** knuckleball. If he was an ace, it'd be worth it, but **** up your position players for a 4ish ERA innings eater just pisses me off.

I don't think Estrada and Norris is really much of a debate, because of depth you have to keep both stretched out, the best way to do that is Norris in Buffalo, Estrada in the rotation. Unless they're much higher on the swift preparation of guys like Johan and/or Randy Wolf, they can't put 5th starter option in the TOR 'pen right away, the chance of any starter injury is just too great. Also, I guess if they're really down on Estrada and don't see him as an option they'd really consider for starting, they might bring Norris, but I think Estrada's the Dustin McGowan of this year. He'll get his 8-10 in and be moved to the 'pen as long as Norris warms up fine or Johan or Randy or Francis do or even Castro I guess pushes him out. BTW, does that mean the BUF rotation could potentially have 4 lefties? Norris, Johan, Wolf, Francis? Probably Johan is in extended to start, but that'd be weird if it happened.

So two spots in the 'pen for the stragglers and/or the phenom. Really, I think with Cecil off the mid-innings options as a closer it's Hynes vs. Barnes for one spot, the second LH, although if neither wins it they don't have to have another LH, but I think that'd be what they're hoping for. And Schultz, Lopez, and Castro going for the last spot, potentially two if neither LH does enough to stick. I'm not going to try to re-hash the Castro thing here.

Am I calling anything too early or too late?

I think the original plan before Stroman went down was Norris in AAA and Estrada in the rotation. If you assume Sanchez (originally slated for the pen) replaces Stroman's spot, and Castro (#%!) replaces Sanchez in the pen, then nothing (in theory) really changes with Estrada/Norris. It's possible Norris forces his way in, and he may have already, but as mentioned, for depth purposes alone, it makes more sense to have Norris and Estrada both stretched out, and that won't happen if one is in the pen. It's also looking like the team is not high on Hendriks, and while that normally wouldn't be a big deal, it makes bringing Norris up even more risky since Hendriks is a good bet to get claimed and he's likely the team's 7th starter at this point.

My guess is Norris wins a rotation spot, partly because he's currently the fourth best starter on the team and partly because AA is in DGAF mode when it comes to service time so that extra year of control on Norris in 2021 is probably not even a glimmer in his eyes.

As far as the rest of the battles, as mentioned in another thread, if AA does not care about service time, then Travis should be starting 2B. He is more MLB ready than Pompey, Sanchez, Norris, and Castro. If they want to hold him back for a month for service time issues, then fine, but he is clearly the best guy right now, and if Izturis is done then don't even waste your time with him.

Navarro DH'ing would be idiotic but clearly Gibbons is infatuated with him and AA (the same man who traded Vernon Wells) can't seem to find a taker, so they'll be willing to sacrifice defense, offense, and Edwin's back to get Dinner's bat in the lineup. I'd rather just DFA Dinner and go with the original plan (Smoak at 1B, Valencia against LHP, and EE at DH full time).

I don't see Viciedo making it unless the trade Valencia. Hynes or Francis will be the additional lefty in the pen. I think Lopez will make it. If Navarro stays, then I could see Smoak put on waivers but I hope not.

I like Norris in the rotation and Estrada and Redmond as long men. That way if someone goes down, you can stretch either of them out to 5 innings right away. The added benefit here is that you keep Estrada and his HR-giving tendencies away from the late innings.

I don't think Jenkins is guaranteed a job. He still has an option left and may start in Buffalo to provide additional rotation depth.

You've got to think Navarro is a goner before the season starts. He makes no sense as a DH, and we don't need three catchers.

Izturis may be injured again (just left game), and given Travis' recent play I think he's looking pretty good as the starter right now.

The Blue Jay analytics guys like Smoak, so even though he hasn't hit this spring I think he gets at least all of April as the semi-regular 1B/DH.

I think the lineup shakes down as follows:

SS Reyes
2B Martin
RF Bautista
DH Encarnacion
3B Donaldson
LF Saunders
DH Smoak
2B Travis
CF Pompey

Bench
Valencia
Pillar
Goins
Thole

Starters
Hutchison
Buerhle
Sanchez
Dickey
Norris

Bullpen
Cecil
Loup
Delabar
Redmond
Estrada

The last two bullpen spots are very much up in the air. We desperately need a RHRP or two.

Lateral Quicks wrote:I like Norris in the rotation and Estrada and Redmond as long men. That way if someone goes down, you can stretch either of them out to 5 innings right away. The added benefit here is that you keep Estrada and his HR-giving tendencies away from the late innings.

I don't think Jenkins is guaranteed a job. He still has an option left and may start in Buffalo to provide additional rotation depth.

You've got to think Navarro is a goner before the season starts. He makes no sense as a DH, and we don't need three catchers.

Izturis may be injured again (just left game), and given Travis' recent play I think he's looking pretty good as the starter right now.

The Blue Jay analytics guys like Smoak, so even though he hasn't hit this spring I think he gets at least all of April as the semi-regular 1B/DH.

I think the lineup shakes down as follows:

SS Reyes
2B Martin
RF Bautista
DH Encarnacion
3B Donaldson
LF Saunders
DH Smoak
2B Travis
CF Pompey

Bench
Valencia
Pillar
Goins
Thole

Starters
Hutchison
Buerhle
Sanchez
Dickey
Norris

Bullpen
Cecil
Loup
Delabar
Redmond
Estrada

The last two bullpen spots are very much up in the air. We desperately need a RHRP or two.

Agree mostly. I'd rather have Navarro than Thole on the big league roster, unless a trade miraculously happens, but I think it will be a while. Estrada has not looked good (what a waste of payroll). Right now Castro looks like a lock to earn a spot in the bp.

how good is norris expected to be? i want to see him do well

Raider917 wrote:how good is norris expected to be? i want to see him do well

From what I understand, his absolute ceiling is probably very good number 1/number 2 (ie. A level below the Kershaw/Hernandez elite types). This season? Who knows. This season is his second pitching above A ball, so it's tough to make projections. Most projection systems have him at about a 4.00 ERA over 130 innings. Obviously most Jays fans have higher expectations than that, but we should probably temper our expectations.

Tyrone Slothrop wrote:

Raider917 wrote:how good is norris expected to be? i want to see him do well

From what I understand, his absolute ceiling is probably very good number 1/number 2 (ie. A level below the Kershaw/Hernandez elite types). This season? Who knows. This season is his second pitching above A ball, so it's tough to make projections. Most projection systems have him at about a 4.00 ERA over 130 innings. Obviously most Jays fans have higher expectations than that, but we should probably temper our expectations.

The ZiPS/Steamer composite projection has him at a 4.26 ERA. His true talent could be anywhere +/- 1 run of that. Projection systems almost always spit out the same heavily regressed projection for very young pitchers with hardly any high-minors experience. It's a crap's shoot, basically.