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STL @ CHC
8:05 PM ET
TSN
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Cardinals
1. Matt Carpenter (L) 3B
2. Jason Heyward (L) RF
3. Matt Holliday (R) LF
4. Jhonny Peralta (R) SS
5. Matt Adams (L) 1B
6. Yadier Molina (R) C
7. Kolten Wong (L) 2B
8. Jon Jay (L) CF
9. Adam Wainwright (R) P

Cubs
1. Dexter Fowler (S) CF
2. Jorge Soler (R) RF
3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
4. Starlin Castro (R) SS
5. Chris Coghlan (L) LF
6. Mike Olt (R) 3B
7. David Ross (R) C
8. Jon Lester (L) P
9. Tommy La Stella (L) 2B

Maddon batting Lester 8th something he has done most of the spring.

The degree to which the Cards are exploiting Lester's fear of throwing to first is magical.

Schadenfreude wrote:The degree to which the Cards are exploiting Lester's fear of throwing to first is magical.

I'm confused, is this a new fear he has or has it always been an issue? If it's always been an issue for him why doesn't every team go crazy on the base paths against him?

Schadenfreude wrote:The degree to which the Cards are exploiting Lester's fear of throwing to first is magical.

Lester seemed almost entirely uninterested in doing anything but throwing the ball to the catcher. Pick off attempt? Hold a runner? Lift the bat off your shoulder at the plate? Nah, bro.

And I like how the announcers made it seem smart that he was batting 8th so they have a "second leadoff hitter" batting 9th. Except, you know, like when your pitcher strikes out looking at three pitches with 2 out and a runner on third base, without so much as thinking about lifting the bat off his shoulder, and then the #9 hitter gets a leadoff single the next inning and winds up left stranded on second base.

Skin Blues wrote:

Schadenfreude wrote:The degree to which the Cards are exploiting Lester's fear of throwing to first is magical.

Lester seemed almost entirely uninterested in doing anything but throwing the ball to the catcher. Pick off attempt? Hold a runner? Lift the bat off your shoulder at the plate? Nah, bro.

People have been running on him with increasing frequency, but that's the first time I can remember seeing players taking leads that were so large that they were almost guaranteed to get picked off if he threw over, just to **** with him; I used to do it in Little League, because I was an **** as a child, but it's great that it's a legitimate tactic against an elite pitcher.

It's almost like they're daring him to snap his own record-setting streak of not throwing to first base. What a weird thing to be so averse to. I mean not even a cursory "hey, I may not be good at it, but I know how to do this" toss. I predict he will throw to first next game after his opponent continues the antics.

Skin Blues wrote:It's almost like they're daring him to snap his own record-setting streak of not throwing to first base. What a weird thing to be so averse to. I mean not even a cursory "hey, I may not be good at it, but I know how to do this" toss. I predict he will throw to first next game after his opponent continues the antics.

He apparently doesn't like throwing over on bunts, either, so it's definitely a thing for Lester. Too bad we aren't facing him this year; our run-scoring bunts plus Lester's yips could lead to an offensive revolution.

Travis Snider goes 3-4 as Orioles establish their their winneryness early. I predict at least 100 wins for them.

too bad the ball didn't skip all the way to the wall

s e n s i wrote:too bad the ball didn't skip all the way to the wall

Ball can stay right there,,, too bad he didn't start jogging in to the dugout!

SharoneWright wrote:

s e n s i wrote:too bad the ball didn't skip all the way to the wall

Ball can stay right there,,, too bad he didn't start jogging in to the dugout!

there were no outs but i guess so?

s e n s i wrote:

SharoneWright wrote:

s e n s i wrote:too bad the ball didn't skip all the way to the wall

Ball can stay right there,,, too bad he didn't start jogging in to the dugout!

there were no outs but i guess so?

no offence meant. just had a mental image of him thinking he'd caught the ball and running in.

Kyle Drabek's line in 1.1 innings of relief:

6 H, 2ER, 1 HR, 1 K.

Methinks his career is done. What a shame. Two Tommy Johns is bad luck, but then again he's always had bad throwig mechanics that may have played a part.

That Porcello contract is just awful. An AAV over $20M for a guy who has a career K/9 of 5.5, and in 6 seasons has pitched more than 200 innings just once.

Lateral Quicks wrote:That Porcello contract is just awful. An AAV over $20M for a guy who has a career K/9 of 5.5, and in 6 seasons has pitched more than 200 innings just once.

I don't know what they were thinking with that contract.

Sticks wrote::banghead:

Lateral Quicks wrote:That Porcello contract is just awful. An AAV over $20M for a guy who has a career K/9 of 5.5, and in 6 seasons has pitched more than 200 innings just once.

I don't know what they were thinking with that contract.

I think it's a little risky, and definitely a bit of an overpay, but not that atrocious. Especially for a team with tons of young positional players but not a lot of pitching. He's one of the best bb% and gb% pitchers in baseball, is entering his age 27-30 seasons, and was previously pitching for an awful defensive team.

I think Porcello is underrated. His ERA's have been misleadingly high prior to 2014, he hasn't had any serious injury issues (as far as I know), and they locked him up through age 30. Definitely an overpayment in AAV, but he's a good pitcher.

Michael Bradley wrote:I think Porcello is underrated. His ERA's have been misleadingly high prior to 2014, he hasn't had any serious injury issues (as far as I know), and they locked him up through age 30. Definitely an overpayment in AAV, but he's a good pitcher.

It is an overpay (he's yet to clear 3 fWAR in a year), but ~$20-21m a year no longer #1 money, particularly when it's a player's age 27-30 years getting bought out. We've gotten to the point where, if he's merely a good third starter, it isn't terrible value relative to what starters go for in free agency.

Buying free agent pitchers/extending fifth-year service starters: not even once, folks. Let's lock Hutch up to an extension yesterday.

Schadenfreude wrote:

Michael Bradley wrote:I think Porcello is underrated. His ERA's have been misleadingly high prior to 2014, he hasn't had any serious injury issues (as far as I know), and they locked him up through age 30. Definitely an overpayment in AAV, but he's a good pitcher.

It is an overpay (he's yet to clear 3 fWAR in a year), but ~$20-21m a year no longer #1 money, particularly when it's a player's age 27-30 years getting bought out. We've gotten to the point where, if he's merely a good third starter, it isn't terrible value relative to what starters go for in free agency.

Buying free agent pitchers/extending fifth-year service starters: not even once, folks. Let's lock Hutch up to an extension yesterday.

The argument about what 20m buys now is valid, but there's a flipside to premium contracts that you really shouldn't waste those slots on less than supreme talents. Even the Sox and Yanks only have room for so many 20m players. Investing those salaries in Rick Porcello is hamstringing, although BOS, I'm sure, feels very confident in their ability to dump if necessary after successfully going that route en mass twice in the last few years.

I also very much dislike the downside when you're buying a guy in this range. Look at Homer Bailey as exhibit A. When you pay absurd prices for Scherzer or Lester, most of your potential downside is still a guy giving you a chance to win (a 1-2 WAR type starter, definitely not worth the money). When you do it for a 2.5-3WAR type and they regress, you're back to replacement value and you're Zito-ed for a half a decade barring the Dodgers (or mind-blowing this year the Padres) deciding to bail you out. The fact he's young helps, but age is hardly an impermeable barrier against regression.

I do very much like that they held it to 4 years. I can't see the year it would've taken for him to substantially beat the AAV in the open market, but he assuredly would've beat it on term. 6/120 or 7/130 was probably his upside in UFA if he gets a 3WARish season in the books.

Sorry for the double,

I was playing around with opening day lineups and I'll just leave this here:

By lineup spot (meaning these guys actually hit in this spot in their lineup for their team yesterday), the best and worst AL lineups by FG's wOBA projections:

WORST
A.Escobar SS .288
S.Fuld RF .286
A.Cabrera 3B .307 (if you don't like the artificial position shift, this could be Valbuena at .319 instead)
M.Joyce DH .324
J.Loney 1B .310
R.Rua LF .300
R.Rivera C .281
L.Forsythe 2B .289
J.Schafer CF .272
Prorated lineup wOBA .295 (Holy Rays Batman)

BEST (had to pick sub-optimal 8th/9th to get a C and SS in where the worst lineup only required moving Asdrubal to third)
J.Altuve 2B .334 (technically Betts' projection is .338 but I refuse to give a rookie credit for being a better lead-off than Altuve and Ellsbury)
M.Trout CF .411
M.Cabrera 1B .399
E.Encarnacion DH .375
J.Donaldson 3B .355
B.Moss LF .351
O.Arcia RF .340
S.Perez C .320
B.Miller SS .308
Prorated lineup WOBA .356

This means nothing, but it does tell you something about some teams when they hit players in certain spots.