ESPN's Jim Bowden solves all of the Jays' pitching woes

[dagger]

It's an insider article, but here's the gist. He proposes three trades

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=11113

Proposed trade #1 with A's: CF Anthony Alford, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, RHP Miguel Castro and C Dan Jansen for Kazmir and Clippard.

Proposed trade #2 with Phillies: Catcher Max Pentecost for Papelbon and Aaron Harang. Phils would be expected to eat much of Papelbon's salary.

Proposed trade #3 with Reds: Norris, Hendriks, Jairo Labourt and Richard Urena for Cueto and Chapman

My reaction is, #1, screw off; #2, okay, maybe; #3, Not eager, for two reasons - lack of compensation when Cueto bolts,which is highly likely, and without Urena, the organization really doesn't have a SS to develop behind the aging Jose Reyes.

[Wo1verine]

Hypothetically, I would be very tempted to do #3

Just want to win at this moment and Cueto and Chapman are elite players that would obviously help tremendously in the short-term.

Mind you, i would probably regret it the minute Cueto walks!

[Lateral Quicks]

#1: Compared to #3, we're giving up more to get less. Terrible.
#2: I'd probably do that, and only because I'm not as high on Pentecost as others. I have no interest in Harang, but if we got him essentially for free he'd be solid rotation depth.
#3: I'd do this too. Yes they're both 3-month rentals, but they're both elite talents, and the only big-name prospect going the other way is Norris. I doubt the Reds have any interest in Hendriks though.

[Kurtz]

#3 is very similar to a trade proposal I'd made yesterday...I'd do it.

[Schad]

We better hope that we go deep in the playoffs as a result, though, because we're **** for a very long time when Cueto and Kasmir walk at the end of the year. We'd be gutted for years to come.

[Xaos]

Not really. We have assets (aging vets for example.) we can trade to rebuild our farm system and through the draft. We should be fine IMO.

and who's to say Cueto, or Kazmir won't sign here for the long term?

[Schad]

Not really. We have assets (aging vets for example.) we can trade to rebuild our farm system and through the draft. We should be fine IMO.

and who's to say Cueto, or Kazmir won't sign here for the long term?

Rogers is to say that they won't sign here long-term. Cueto's going to get the better part of $200m.

And no, we really wouldn't have much by way of assets, particularly because there's little chance we'd follow this presumed playoff run up by trading Edwin and Bautista in the off-season. Through the draft, sure, but there's a several-year lag there. It's a one-off, after which we could reasonably expect that, within two seasons, we'll be the worst team in baseball for quite a while.

[North_of_Border]

Im all for making the move to win or giving up good prospects to do so. You gotta give sumthing up to get sumething. Donaldson type of deals are rare.

However i wouldnt give up these kinds of prospects for a rental. Honestly, id rather give up "more" to get someone like Hamels for 5 more season than Cueto for a few months.

Anyone agree?

[Michael Bradley]

There is no way Cueto would sign long-term before testing free agency. He will already be one of the top FA's available this off-season, but if he's traded mid-season then there is no draft pick compensation attached to him anymore, which will make him even more desirable. He will be 100% a rental for whoever gets him.

The Jays are probably better off going for a mid-rotation starter who will cost a little less and hope the offense and improved pen can win with an average rotation. If they do go for a Cueto type (or Cueto/Chapman), then they better be leading the division or Wild Card by five or more games when they pull the trigger. You don't make those type of deals to climb out of a hole; you make them to maintain your spot on top.

[Sifu]

I wonder if the Jays mgmt shakes up in the off season we would still have the five year rule or not.

[rarefind]

The only deal I'd do is #2 and I doubt Philly wants Pentecost alone.

[Nights King]

1 and 3 are just terrible deals

2 is fine if the Phillies will pay all or close to all of Papelbon's salary. Pentecost had 2 walks in like a 120 PA with little power and is coming off of shoulder surgery, i don't think he has much value to be honest

[Kurtz]

We better hope that we go deep in the playoffs as a result, though, because we're **** for a very long time when Cueto and Kasmir walk at the end of the year. We'd be gutted for years to come.

I think doing 2 of those deals would gut us, but doing just #3 or #2 would leave us in decent shape. Besides, we can't waste this year's offense, can we?

[Schad]

We better hope that we go deep in the playoffs as a result, though, because we're **** for a very long time when Cueto and Kasmir walk at the end of the year. We'd be gutted for years to come.

I think doing 2 of those deals would gut us, but doing just #3 or #2 would leave us in decent shape.

Not disastrously bad shape, but it'd still involve shipping 4 of our top 12 prospects (per Sickels) entering this year for a couple months of Cueto and Harang, and the right to pay two relievers a massive amount of money next year (Chapman is arb-eligible and will get $10m+; Papelbon depends on what Philly eats, I guess). That'd ensure that we had little leeway when it comes to rebuilding the rotation again in the off-season, only with our closest high-end pitching prospect removed.

And for those curious, doing all three deals would see us trading the majority of our current top twenty (when graduates are removed), and probably 6 of our current top 10. Of course, I don't think Bowden is proposing that we make the trio, just that they're reliever plus starter combos we could go for.

Besides, we can't waste this year's offense, can we?

I want to make the playoffs as much as everyone else, but I think that people are seriously overrating exactly how earth-shattering it'll be if we get there. Assuming we won the division (and the AL East isn't necessarily shaping up to be the cakewalk some thought it might be) we'd have about a 75% chance to get bounced before the World Series, because the playoffs might as well be a coin flip. If we win a Wild Card spot, it's 88%. If we were to sell out for a playoff spot and get bounced in the ALDS, or even the ALCS, I really doubt that turning back into an immense pile of dog **** soon after would leave most feeling like it was worth it.

Edit: have said it before, but I'll reiterate. I'm not at all against making deals if we're in it, just ones where we throw all the chips in this season on rentals/players with limited long-term utility simply because IT'S OUR YEAR GLAAARRRGH. We don't need a rental ace. We don't need a star closer. We need quality depth in the bullpen and a couple solid starters, and there are multiple ways to achieve that.

I mentioned Samardzija, and that's the sort I'd target. He's having a down year by ERA, but there's a fair amount of bad luck. He wouldn't be horribly expensive to rent. Add another decent vet, like Harang, to fill out the rotation (or simply promote Norris if we looks capable of filling a spot). Move Sanchez to the back end of the bullpen, send Estrada to do swingman work. Ta da, we have a solid enough rotation 1 through 5, our bullpen looks much better, and we haven't gutted the minors in the process.

Remember, people were incredibly envious of the A's and the Tigers last year, because they Went For It. But baseball isn't the sort of sport where one or two players move the needle that much, even great ones...the A's much-lauded deals were followed by a slide that nearly saw them fall out of the playoffs, losing in a play-in game before nuking the team in the off-season. The Tigers also won exactly as many playoff games as we did. Good organizations aim to give themselves many bites at the cherry, because the odds of winning anything with a single playoff appearance are pretty damned low. Perhaps it's greedy, but I'd like us to get back to being good for a sustained period, rather than crossing our names off the playoff drought list and then sliding back into the mire.

[zong]

Is that first deal the way it is because Billy feels shafted about the Donaldson trade?
The second one... meh, I doubt Philly would agree, maybe if we add?
The third one is alright but we all know Cueto isn't settling for under 5 years.

[UN-Owen]

If the Jays want to go "all in", I think Philly is the logical trading partner

The Phillies might just give Hamels and Papelbon away if the Jays are willing to take back Howard and Cliff Lee

[Raider917]

i would like #3. the future looks bleak to me anyway after EE and Bautista are gone. What's the worse than can happen? Cueto walks and then next year this team is no worse than they are right now. I cant see a pot of gold in the near future anyway when it comes to prospects so go for something now while there is a chance for some success.

[Swervin81]

The White Sox are in the dump. Samardzija plus Robertson if they also wanna dump off some salary isn't a bad idea.

[Skin Blues]

If the Jays want to go "all in", I think Philly is the logical trading partner

The Phillies might just give Hamels and Papelbon away if the Jays are willing to take back Howard and Cliff Lee

Hamels probably won't come to Toronto.

Cincy deal makes sense to me. They have no need for Chapman and Cueto. Would be reaaaaally expensive, though. I doubt Norris and those other scraps gets it done.

[suntzuballin]

2 sounds do able 3 would definitely consider,no to castro being involed unless a ace involed and is in his prime.