Schad wrote:Really good job on that overall. There are a few I'd tweak slightly for 2016 though, mostly pertaining to the arbitration guys.
Donaldson's probably going to get closer to $7.5m than $9m as a second-year arb; Rivere will get closer to $6m than $3.5m; Saunders could be anywhere from $3m-4m...arb figures for injured guys are weird; Thole is almost certainly going to get non-tendered.
Smoak's a strange case; he got non-tendered and then signed for one year show-me deal at a major discount compared to his arb path previous. Probably $2m minimum if we opt to retain him, as he has had a decent enough year that someone'll be willing to give him a shot.
Estrada, I have no idea. If he keeps this up he could easily get 2 or 3 years and an AAV north of $10m a season somewhere, because the market for pitching is entirely nuts.
Beyond that, the pre-arb guys can be taken down slightly; it's splitting the finest of hairs, I know, but they'll be closer to $500k, which adds a mil and a half or thereabouts.
A lot of it is guess work. I've done some searching online and Donaldson was listed at closer to 9 million. Revere was listed at 4 million (we probably won't keep him at 6). I figured we would keep Thole for one year (Dickey's last) but even if we let him walk we will need to allocate a similar figure to another backup catcher, unless we go with Jiminez. The $500k guys I was liberal with because I figured most are due for some minor raise, but I think you are right that they will average out closer to 500 each.
Estrada is the hardest guy to figure out. He has had 1 really good season in a contract year and he is 28. Really have no clue what someone will pay him.
Thanks for the feedback I will adjust and edit original post a little.
