Key off-season questions (plus one more, p 4)

[dagger]

This might do until there is an official off-season thread. First, I want to say I had a lot of fun with this team post trade-deadline. Was it worthwhile, giving up so much of the future? Well, if ownership makes possible a comparable full-season run in 2016. yes. If it cheaps out and we're back to .500, no. Just remember, Noah Syndergaard and Travis d'arnaud are in the World Series. R.A. Dickey is not. That trade happened three years ago, and while I am not begrudging AA for doing it, when you think of how much we gave up in the winter of 2012-13 to make those trades, and consider what we gave up at the deadline this year, it's not hard to imagine we would be heading into 2016 still with a long playoff drought, but with MASSIVE upside, the kind that can keep a team playoff relevant for a decade.

That paradigm changed for a good long time at the trade deadline this year, since the farm is now largely fallow. It will take a couple of drafts to replenish it enough to even think of denuding it again via trades. We're also out of the international signing season in 2016 except for some bargain priced players. We can't chase the expensive guys because we signed Vlad Jr this year and didn't do the smart thing of blowing the ceiling entirely and signing a few more big talents in the Latin or Cuban markets. Better to have done that and been penalized for two years of international signings than to actually trade away a nice couple of prospects just to regain the ability to make a signing or two with less money in 2017. That wasn't on AA, but on ownership.

That will place a disproportionate weight for 2016 on free agent signings, and trades. There are no prospects in the farm system not already on the 40 man roster who will contribute until late 2016 at best, or more likely 2017. Anthony Alford might make it with a great start at New Hampshire - but we only carry four outfielders so it's more likely he forces the issue in 2017. Connor Greene might move up to AAA at some point, and hence offer a bit of pitching depth, and Sean Reid Foley is a candidate to start the year in NH. Prospects like Rowdy Tellez, Matt Dean, Vlad Jr, Richard Urena, etc, do not play current positions of need.

So with that in mind, these are my most pressing questions. Feel free to add your own.

1. What is the budget going to be? Rogers did well financially from a post-ASG surge in attendance, ratings, and the halo effect on other programming and customer retention. Do they stick to their traditional mid-market range, or allow payroll to rise to, say, $US150 million.

2. David Price. Do they make a serious run at Price, or a pitcher in that salary bracket like Cueto, Greinke, etc., or do they spread it around more?

3. Marco Estrada? Do you feel comfortable giving a one-year wonder like him a rich (for him), long-term deal? At 32, he's certainly a regression candidate? Or. like Dickey in 2010-12, he might have found himself.

4. Aaron Sanchez? Starter or setup guy? I suspect he's heading back to the rotation, because even with his deficiencies, he still has upside and can't be worse than Drew Hutchinson was as a back of the rotation starter.

5. Jose Bautista. There are no issues with the infield, they will all be back with the addition of a hopefully healthy and more durable Devon Travis. The outfield is another matter. Jose still has the bat, but at age 35, he's looking slow as a fielder, and less sure of himself as a consequence. The arm is a question mark. Ideally, he should be moving towards DH, but then what about Edwin? The answer might be one more season in RF for Jose. The organization hung on to Alford throughout the trade deadline negotiations, and I have to think he and Pompey, with Pillar, will be our outfield by 2017 or 2018.

6. Ben Revere. He is a talented player who made a big contribution to the post-ASG surge, but didn't distinguish himself in the playoffs. There is no problem in bringing him back for one more year except that he's a third year arbitration candidate, and the issue becomes, can Pompey do a reasonable job replacing him, freeing up several million dollars to spend elsewhere?

7. Backup catcher. Despite the role Navarro played as Estrada's personal pitcher, and Buehrle's to an extent, $5m is too much to pay for a backup, and he wants to be a starter. The trouble is, there is no C in the farm system close to being ready. Not with Max Pentecost only now returning to duty after losing a full season of development to two shoulder surgeries. Not with Dan Jansen losing much of the year at Lansing. Keep Josh Thole who would be a cheap signing? Troll the FA market for a C with a little more than Thole, but still quite cheap?

8. The Bullpen. Osuna and Cecil will be back, certainly Hendricks. Then what? It's not hard to assemble a good bullpen, but AA holding cash in reserve for the trade deadline meant there was little decent talent available at the bottom of the bargain bin at the tail end of free agency. A more deliberate FA signing process seems necessary, with perhaps a bit more money but certainly not the haphazard approach which cost us several early season games.

9. GM, Manager, Coaches. I expect no no change, but should Shapiro demand at least one upgrade? Maybe third base coach? Nothing pressing, but I wonder...

[bluerap23]

Great post!

I trust AA to keep us competitive for at least a few seasons (even if Bautista and EE are gone after next season).
He has proven he can restock the farm fairly quickly. If he can do the two simultaneously our organization can be special.

But the Dickey trade does hurt, and the Price one likely will too.

[kobejohn89]

8. The Bullpen. Osuna and Cecil will be back, certainly Hendricks.

Always thought Osuna would end up in the rotation next year no matter what happened this season. With Sanchez, it leaves 2 spots open. Need a #1 and #3. Probably pick option on Dickey for our #3 (at least to start the season). So I'd look for an Ace and some back of the rotation insurance if someone stumbles.

[Aintnohater]

I really dont wanna see Dickey coem back...hes just way too old and inconsistent at this point in his career lol. Id rather have Hutch next year over him tbh..I can just see him regressing more.

[bluerap23]

2. David Price. Do they make a serious run at Price, or a pitcher in that salary bracket like Cueto, Greinke, etc., or do they spread it around more?

I think they have to make a run at Price. He seems to have enjoyed his time here and finding a replacement may be more challenging than sticking with what they have.

3. Marco Estrada? Do you feel comfortable giving a one-year wonder like him a rich (for him), long-term deal? At 32, he's certainly a regression candidate? Or. like Dickey in 2010-12, he might have found himself.

I'd feel comfortable with 3 years and $40 million.

4. Aaron Sanchez? Starter or setup guy? I suspect he's heading back to the rotation, because even with his deficiencies, he still has upside and can't be worse than Drew Hutchinson was as a back of the rotation starter.

Gotta be Starting next year. He was pretty good out of the pen, but not great.

5. Jose Bautista. There are no issues with the infield, they will all be back with the addition of a hopefully healthy and more durable Devon Travis. The outfield is another matter. Jose still has the bat, but at age 35, he's looking slow as a fielder, and less sure of himself as a consequence. The arm is a question mark. Ideally, he should be moving towards DH, but then what about Edwin? The answer might be one more season in RF for Jose. The organization hung on to Alford throughout the trade deadline negotiations, and I have to think he and Pompey, with Pillar, will be our outfield by 2017 or 2018.

I think he will be ok for one more year. His arm is still there, just bothered by a pretty minor should injury that will heal. I think there is a chance one of he or Edwin gets traded because after next year you probably only want one of the two back.

6. Ben Revere. He is a talented player who made a big contribution to the post-ASG surge, but didn't distinguish himself in the playoffs. There is no problem in bringing him back for one more year except that he's a third year arbitration candidate, and the issue becomes, can Pompey do a reasonable job replacing him, freeing up several million dollars to spend elsewhere?

I would keep him. If Pompey or even Saunders can prove themselves you can always trade him. Somebody will want his skill set.

7. Backup catcher. Despite the role Navarro played as Estrada's personal pitcher, and Buehrle's to an extent, $5m is too much to pay for a backup, and he wants to be a starter. The trouble is, there is no C in the farm system close to being ready. Not with Max Pentecost only now returning to duty after losing a full season of development to two shoulder surgeries. Not with Dan Jansen losing much of the year at Lansing. Keep Josh Thole who would be a cheap signing? Troll the FA market for a C with a little more than Thole, but still quite cheap?

I'm not sure that there is a starting job out there for him. If he can't find it I would try to bring him back on a lesser contract. But it is low on the priority list. I'd be find with Thole catching 1 out 5 games per week next year. Maybe Max P will be ready for 2017.

8. The Bullpen. Osuna and Cecil will be back, certainly Hendricks. Then what? It's not hard to assemble a good bullpen, but AA holding cash in reserve for the trade deadline meant there was little decent talent available at the bottom of the bargain bin at the tail end of free agency. A more deliberate FA signing process seems necessary, with perhaps a bit more money but certainly not the haphazard approach which cost us several early season games.

KC showed the value in a great bullpen. I am hopeful that this will be treated as a priority.

[dagger]

I would wonder about what Edwin or Jose would get in a trade Not saying trade either, but if one of them could get us a solid pitcher for the #2 or #3 slot behind Stroman - assuming Price or comparable isn't signed - I'd at least like to weigh the possibility. We should be adding offence with Devon Travis returning, so it's not like we would be light on scoring.

[Schad]

1. What is the budget going to be? Rogers did well financially from a post-ASG surge in attendance, ratings, and the halo effect on other programming and customer retention. Do they stick to their traditional mid-market range, or allow payroll to rise to, say, $US150 million.

I'd guess somewhere in the $140-150m range.

2. David Price. Do they make a serious run at Price, or a pitcher in that salary bracket like Cueto, Greinke, etc., or do they spread it around more?

Unless we're spending $170m+, and I doubt it, making a run at a $30m/year starter would be madness; it's a marginal play short-term, and one that'd almost assuredly be painful later on. Tulo, Bautista, Martin, Dickey, Encarnacion and Donaldson will cost about $80m combined, not taking into account the various arb-eligible players we have to deal with...while that's below-market for what they bring, $60m doesn't get you that far in filling the other 19 spots on the roster, if half of it is thrown at one player.

3. Marco Estrada? Do you feel comfortable giving a one-year wonder like him a rich (for him), long-term deal? At 32, he's certainly a regression candidate? Or. like Dickey in 2010-12, he might have found himself.

Estrada shocked a lot of us, but no...if it costs 3 years, $35m or thereabouts to bring him back, I'd pass. His HR/FB rate is incredibly low, and while he does induce a tonne of shallow popups, a bit of regression would make him a very scary proposition, as his xFIP of nearly 5.00 demonstrates.

Plus, that contract would be for his ages 33-35 seasons; Jered Weaver, another soft-tossing popup artist who was for many years a high-quality pitcher, discovered that there is a point at which it's really difficult to get that mid-80s high fastball past hitters. He's about a year older than Estrada is now, though with more wear on his arm.

4. Aaron Sanchez? Starter or setup guy? I suspect he's heading back to the rotation, because even with his deficiencies, he still has upside and can't be worse than Drew Hutchinson was as a back of the rotation starter.

Oh yes he can. Sanchez is a reliever for me, unless he miraculously finds a good off-speed pitch. Neither his mechanics or his repertoire lend themselves to starting.

5. Jose Bautista. There are no issues with the infield, they will all be back with the addition of a hopefully healthy and more durable Devon Travis. The outfield is another matter. Jose still has the bat, but at age 35, he's looking slow as a fielder, and less sure of himself as a consequence. The arm is a question mark. Ideally, he should be moving towards DH, but then what about Edwin? The answer might be one more season in RF for Jose. The organization hung on to Alford throughout the trade deadline negotiations, and I have to think he and Pompey, with Pillar, will be our outfield by 2017 or 2018.

Probably his last season with the Jays. We absolutely need to do something with our glut of now-or-future 1B/DH types, though.

6. Ben Revere. He is a talented player who made a big contribution to the post-ASG surge, but didn't distinguish himself in the playoffs. There is no problem in bringing him back for one more year except that he's a third year arbitration candidate, and the issue becomes, can Pompey do a reasonable job replacing him, freeing up several million dollars to spend elsewhere?

I'd expect us to tender both of Revere and Saunders, and trade one/both. Revere's probably the one with the most trade value, though Saunders is a huge gamble.

7. Backup catcher. Despite the role Navarro played as Estrada's personal pitcher, and Buehrle's to an extent, $5m is too much to pay for a backup, and he wants to be a starter. The trouble is, there is no C in the farm system close to being ready. Not with Max Pentecost only now returning to duty after losing a full season of development to two shoulder surgeries. Not with Dan Jansen losing much of the year at Lansing. Keep Josh Thole who would be a cheap signing? Troll the FA market for a C with a little more than Thole, but still quite cheap?

Depends how we want to manage Martin's twilight years. Pursuant to the 1B/DH traffic jam, at some point we're going to need to taper Martin's games behind the plate somewhat...120 games or thereabouts isn't likely to be the threshold going forward.

8. The Bullpen. Osuna and Cecil will be back, certainly Hendricks. Then what? It's not hard to assemble a good bullpen, but AA holding cash in reserve for the trade deadline meant there was little decent talent available at the bottom of the bargain bin at the tail end of free agency. A more deliberate FA signing process seems necessary, with perhaps a bit more money but certainly not the haphazard approach which cost us several early season games.

Wouldn't leave Osuna in the bullpen. Send him down to AA or AAA to develop as a starter...having cleared out the arms in the farm, we cannot turn one of our best options into a reliever long-term. Don't care how good he is.

And don't spend big on a closer. Spread some coin, get three or four solid options.

9. GM, Manager, Coaches. I expect no no change, but should Shapiro demand at least one upgrade? Maybe third base coach? Nothing pressing, but I wonder...

See no reason.

[Raptor_Guy]

I'm curious what they will do with the outfield situation. You have Revere, Pillar, Saunders, Pompey and Bautista for 3 spots. The fact that Revere, Pompey and Saunders are all left handed bats it would make them redundant as bench players other than the face you could use Pompey as a pinch runner. But to use Pompey in that role would be a waste of his potential.

[UN-Owen]

Why not Price and Greinke?

This is the time for Rogers to show the fans that they're in it to win it


I'd also call the Reds and see what it would take to land Votto

[The Duke]

-trade either EE or Jose, remaining player is DH.
-Pompey to outfield starter
-Inject Travis in lineup
-Revere keep too
-Pass on Price, Dickie, hope Estrada comes at decent coin
-sign starting pitchers & try to get deep bullpen (over top end guys).

better then this year? maybe not based on metrics but more prepared to win in the playoff? could be

[satyr9]

The budget is so crucial because obviously one way or the other Price must be replaced. If there's money to be spent, then you get to keep Goins and Pompey for the bench, injuries, and spring training surprises. If not, then they will be spent helping get a 20m+ type starter for 15m- because of team control. Estrada is, IMO, likely only coming back if he can come back for close to Dickey's money, I don't think it'll be both. If he's priced himself into the 15+ range, then I can't imagine he's back. 3rd year might be a deal breaker too. 1.Stroman, 2.Inevitable Price replacement 3.Estrada/Dickey 4.Hutchison 5.Cheap vet/Sanchez/Osuna.

I think we bring in a 1 year Hammel/Anderson type 5th man (pray they get it right) and let him start out long relief if one of Sanchez or Osuna literally take a starter's job in ST, the other closes. Of course like every year, the vet guy will be needed to start sooner than later, but they won't be afraid to stick them as the 7th man in the 'pen for a while if one of those two does enough to force them to stick.

My dark horse move is again trading Eddie if someone offers up the proper piece, I'd say it's definitely on the table simply because it'll be very expensive to re-sign him and Jose and if there was ever any doubt, Jose is still the face of the franchise, but only 25% likely any team comes up with the price AA'd need to movie Eddie. His stock is a little up after a great September and they've already got a cheap and reasonable replacement under control (Smoak basically as Colabello certainly now has to lose the starter tag rather than win it), so he's the easiest of the big bats to survive moving if it brought back the right arm for the rotation. Trading Travis is probably the more darkhorse option. He and Goins will likely at least both be floated to see what comes back on offer.

The rest is pretty boring IMO. 2nd C will be inexpensive, I'd be shocked if it's Dinner again, I'd bet it'll be Thole if Dickey stays to save Martin. Saunders will be available, but likely around for ST and kind of a wild card. I love the idea of having Smoak, Goins, and Pompey as the healthy bench with a C. Over 162 they'll be needed and used, but if there's not enough money available for the rotation, they're likely more useful as assets to bring down the cash costs on pitching. Pen will be Osuna or Sanchez closing, maybe 1 in 3 chances both end up back there next year. Cecil and TBD for set-up. Hendriks and Loup behind them. Throw a lot of junk at the wall behind them and see what sticks, even hoping Hendriks and Loup become third pair, rather than second. If there's lots of money available and they get their first picks for starters with more left over, then maybe you see a big arm for the 'pen too, but that's gonna be priority D at best IMO.

Also, I very much expect JD's agent to push hard for a big extension. That's going to be a bit delicate as paying after an MVP calibre season is very risky, although admittedly if he does it again next year it only gets worse. I would be very happy if that got resolved quickly one way or the other.

Of course with Shapiro in over Beeston and Rogers likely paying more attention than ever, things may take a complete turn from recent SOP.

[Schad]

Why not Price and Greinke?

This is the time for Rogers to show the fans that they're in it to win it


I'd also call the Reds and see what it would take to land Votto

Because if your idea of showing the fans that they're in it to win it involves Rogers authorizing a payroll of well in excess of $200m US, you're living in a fantasy.

[Schad]

Also, I very much expect JD's agent to push hard for a big extension. That's going to be a bit delicate as paying after an MVP calibre season is very risky, although admittedly if he does it again next year it only gets worse. I would be very happy if that got resolved quickly one way or the other.

And that pretty much has to happen this offseason. Otherwise, after a good 2016, Donaldson will be making enough in arb that it'd cost full freight to extend him, without which he'd likely be willing to gamble on riding out his team control and getting a five or six year contract at age 32.

[Charlie Sollers]

Biggest question to me is how much Rogers is willing to invest into the team. From there, everything becomes more clear on how to proceed for the future.

Will Sanchez and Osuna get the opportunity to prove themselves as starters? You would think Sanchez would but what about Osuna?

[dagger]

Biggest question to me is how much Rogers is willing to invest into the team. From there, everything becomes more clear on how to proceed for the future.

Will Sanchez and Osuna get the opportunity to prove themselves as starters? You would think Sanchez would but what about Osuna?

Unfortunately, the team won't announce a payroll number - understandably so, but frustrating for us - and so we will be kept guessing all winter as to what moves are possible, even after a couple of key free agency decisions reveal themselves. That said, Alex and Mark should be able to present a case to Rogers that if they strike early and hard in free agency, it will spur ticket sales - think 3.2 million spectators next season - and give Sportsnet advertisers the impetus to agree to higher rates. So regardless of the rhetoric, I'm thinking that the first move or two will tell us whether Rogers wants to sustain this, and to what degree.

[Alasen]

I don't see us trading Jose Bautista. I just don't. He was the face of the Blue Jays all year long and was arguably our MVP in the playoffs. If we absolutely must trade one of the Big Three i would reluctantly go with Edwin since i like the guy, but Donaldson and Especially Bautista must stay no matter what. Trading Jose would not sit well with Blue Jays fans.

[The_Hater]

I most know people are comfortable paying Estrada to come back but I can't help thinking that he just had his career year and won't be anything close to that effective again. Timing is everything for a free agent though.

I'd prefer if we let someone else overpay him and looked for an undervalued SP somewhere else.

As for Price, I'd be very surprised to see him back.

[Charlie Sollers]

I most know people are comfortable paying Estrada to come back but I can't help thinking that he just had his career year and won't be anything close to that effective again. Timing is everything for a free agent though.

I'd prefer if we let someone else overpay him and looked for an undervalued SP somewhere else.

As for Price, I'd be very surprised to see him back.

I agree on Estrada. Can't shake the feeling that we will overpay and regret this decision for a few years.

[guvernator]

This team doesn't need Price to get back to Postseason. An anti-Estrada like Jeff Samardzija and a middle rotation lefty like Chen or Kazmir can be had for less dollars (combined) and obviously way less years. And assuming Osuna is moved to the rotation, I hope that they make a run at Darren O'day.

[satyr9]

One thing I'd like to say about Price and that spot in the rotation is that it's not such a guarantee he'll be a good signing even if AA has the funds from Rogers. Would you be happy if his deal looked like Verlander in a year? Wouldn't you already be a little nervous if Felix was on your payroll? The Yankees can absorb a couple years of CCesque issues, but very few others can.

Obviously to win the bidding for a player of his calibre you have to absorb some risk and likely some years of bloated back-end, but how many is a fair compromise? He's certainly not a safe bet beyond 5 years(and that's crazy generous, it's more like 2), but it's a guarantee he'll get, absolute bare minimum floor 6, and realistically 7 years, just because of the total dollars he'll command. Kershaw got 215m, even with inflation it'd be crazy if Price is in that range. Scherzer got the most team friendly 210 imaginable, but was also younger. Felix, CC, and Verlander were/are 165-185, but Price is hopefully working more off something like Lester's 155-170(with the 6th option), but another year later and a more stable track record and pedigree (Lester has a significant negative burp in his career, and was not a first overall guy). I'd say Price will be looking for 200 and likely settle for a 175-190 with a final year option, something like160/6 plus a 15m buyout on a final year at 30m if it vests. I'm not entirely convinced there won't be better ways to spend on a 170m payroll team or even 200m than locking down Price for that kind of term (another way of looking at is is literally at best an entire years payroll for the rest of Price's effective career, is that a fair trade?).

And if the bidding is heavy and the competition goes 200m or beyond (re-setting the market is not that uncommon after all), keep in mind that realistically whoever wins his services will also be trading the equivalent at least one future top 50 prospect to save themselves 20-30m+ off that deal if they're a remotely competitive team after Price's window closes. Deals giving 35+ age guys premium dollars end up costing teams premium prospects, not just the cash.