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I expect he'll reject it, if only to get a longer deal. At his age, he's a classic regression candidate.

Nobody has ever accepted a qualifying offer. So, yeah, he'll likely decline. And maybe we can get a cheap 2 or 3 year deal out of it since we'd be the only team that wouldn't be giving up a draft pick. Worst case, we get a guy that is likely to be a reliable starting pitcher on a one year deal. I like it. And if it means we keep Navarro around for next year I'm OK with that too, because unlike Josh Thole, Dioner can actually hit. He's a real nice backup to have that can play twice a week and even pinch hit on off-days.

Great. Two of our three SPs need their own private catchers. And 75 mill left on Martin's contract.

[edit] BTW I understand that it's not a done deal on Estrada. But who's gonna give up a top draft pick to sign him to a big dollar contract? For practical purposes, confirms he's a Jay next year one way or the other, correct?

No to Estrada he did well for jays but no to regression,havent they learned for r.a dickey.

He'll either accept it and we get another year of Estrada before he decides to go off on his own, or he declines and we sign him for a few extra years at cheaper money, or he goes elsewhere and we get a pick. No real downside considering how fantastic he was for us this year.

I expect him to take it

zilby wrote:He'll either accept it and we get another year of Estrada before he decides to go off on his own, or he declines and we sign him for a few extra years at cheaper money, or he goes elsewhere and we get a pick. No real downside considering how fantastic he was for us this year.

This is my sentiment as well.

dagger wrote:I expect he'll reject it, if only to get a longer deal. At his age, he's a classic regression candidate.

I don't see Estrada as a classic regression candidate due to his age. With his repertoire, losing a tick or two off his velo as he ages won't really matter much. A guy like Buehrle survived till he was 37 throwing junk pitches. I'm sure Estrada could do the same. Now, Estrada could certainly be a regression candidate next season if his career low BABIP and H/9 this past season end up normalizing next season.

dagger wrote:I expect he'll reject it, if only to get a longer deal. At his age, he's a classic regression candidate.

He is, and while one only needs for a single team to forget that, being a serious regression candidate with a short track record, at 32 and attached to compensation means that his market is wide open...while in general the reward of rejecting has outstripped the risk, if you were going to pick a type with a higher-than-normal chance to get shut out, it'd be a pitcher like Estrada whose advanced metrics will scare off some teams, and whose lack of upside or wow factor will scare off others.

I hope I'm wrong and he rejects it, however. I'd gladly take the pick, as having four top 75 picks in this upcoming draft (we also get one because we failed to sign Brady Singer last year) and the pool to match would give us a very good chance to start restocking the cupboards.

tecumseh18 wrote:Great. Two of our three SPs need their own private catchers. And 75 mill left on Martin's contract.

[edit] BTW I understand that it's not a done deal on Estrada. But who's gonna give up a top draft pick to sign him to a big dollar contract? For practical purposes, confirms he's a Jay next year one way or the other, correct?

If anybody would do it, it's the Yanks or Red Sox. They'd think about throwing away money and a pick just so they can take away next year's number 2 or 3 starter from the team that just whooped their ass in the division.

As far as Martin goes, why isn't there any talk of trading him? Everybody's talking about Tulo or Ed, what about Martin? Yes, he's owed a lot, but so was Vernon Wells. So was Mark Buehrle. That will save us a bit of cash, which we can use to get an arm and still stay under the $140M budget.

I don't mind Navarro as our 9th in the line-up. Thole is blah, but our line-up can survive in the regular season with him in it every 5 games. In the playoffs, he gets 2-3 at bats every series. That's not bad.

I've got a feeling that KC will end up signing Marco for something around 3/33. He just makes a lot of sense in their park, and they were probably pretty impressed by what they saw in the playoffs. Plus their first will be awfully late.

Patman wrote:[
If anybody would do it, it's the Yanks or Red Sox. They'd think about throwing away money and a pick just so they can take away next year's number 2 or 3 starter from the team that just whooped their ass in the division.

Good. Seriously, the Red Sox giving Estrada 3 years, $40m and shipping a pick is the sort of thing that forces me to wash the sheets.

Schad wrote:

Patman wrote:[
If anybody would do it, it's the Yanks or Red Sox. They'd think about throwing away money and a pick just so they can take away next year's number 2 or 3 starter from the team that just whooped their ass in the division.

Good. Seriously, the Red Sox giving Estrada 3 years, $40m and shipping a pick is the sort of thing that forces me to wash the sheets.

And thanks to the Red Sox late season push they didn't end up in the bottom 10 and would have to surrender a first round pick.

Santoki wrote:

Schad wrote:

Patman wrote:[
If anybody would do it, it's the Yanks or Red Sox. They'd think about throwing away money and a pick just so they can take away next year's number 2 or 3 starter from the team that just whooped their ass in the division.

Good. Seriously, the Red Sox giving Estrada 3 years, $40m and shipping a pick is the sort of thing that forces me to wash the sheets.

And thanks to the Red Sox late season push they didn't end up in the bottom 10 and would have to surrender a first round pick.

And thanks to the Green Monster, our right handers can hit homers off him for years to come.

(Loved your 2015, Marco)

No thanks. Awful peripheral numbers. Big regression candidate. Kuma/Lackey/Shark/Kazmir please.

Santoki wrote:And thanks to the Red Sox late season push they didn't end up in the bottom 10 and would have to surrender a first round pick.

Yeah, that made me happy. They don't need any more young talent. C'mon, Boston, sign the next Hanley or Sandoval, you know you wanna.

Trouba95 wrote:No thanks. Awful peripheral numbers. Big regression candidate. Kuma/Lackey/Shark/Kazmir please.

Kazmir is a pretty big regression candidate too.

Hoopstarr wrote:

Trouba95 wrote:No thanks. Awful peripheral numbers. Big regression candidate. Kuma/Lackey/Shark/Kazmir please.

Kazmir is a pretty big regression candidate too.

He's a regression candidate, definitely, but not as glaring of one. His three-year run of performance is fairly good if decidedly unspectacular, and if the difference between Kazmir and Estrada ends up being $4-5m AAV and a draft pick, he'd be my preference.

Sox are looking for an ace. I think Price/Greinke end up in the NL, and Sox grab either Zimmerman or Cueto. More likely the latter.