Trading a power bat might be the solution for Blue Jays going forward

[jawadh]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

We all know going into the 2016 season, the Toronto Blue Jays will not have to worry about scoring runs. The Blue Jays have scored almost 900 runs all season with the Yankees finishing a distant 2nd with 764. One glaring need coming into the season would be the state of the starting pitching.

David Price, Marco Estrada (Who was offered a qualifying offer, which he would likely reject) and Mark Buehrle are all likely gone. Thats 60% of the rotation not returning. Not to mention the struggles of Drew Hutchison all season, it can be argued that going into the season, Toronto will cast of 1-2 punch of Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey. Marcus Stroman is capable of amazing things, but you can’t expect him to carry the team all season. R.A. Dickey is R.A. Dickey, you can expect 200+ Innings and a Sub-4.00 ERA. But how about the rest of the rotation?

The Jays are hoping that if Estrada rejects the offer, they can still work out a deal with him, even though it means competing with other suitors. Estrada, seem to enjoy his success and the situation he created for himself in Toronto, so barring any major offers from other teams, the likelihood of him returning is pretty strong. There are a couple of intriguing free agents this off-season namely David Price and Ryan Zimmerman. Even if the Jays sign one of the big players this off-season they still need to fill out the rest of the rotation. Trading away one of their big bats, is simply taking a position of strength and moving it to fill a position of weakness.

The biggest trade assets the Jays have are Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki. Who are your 2-5 hitters. Donaldson is not going anywhere. He’s controllable for the next 4 years at a very affordable contract. Both Bautista and Encarnacion are free agents after next season. Bautista, is the heart-and-soul of this franchise for the pass 5 years and trading him (and his batflip) away will turn a lot of fans off. Not to mention, Bautista is a 10-and-5 player. Which means he has over 10 years of MLB service and 5 years with the same team. This qualifies him to have a no-trade clause. So if the Jays wanted him traded, Bautista has to agree to it. Encarnacion is in the same boat, he’s one of the important pieces in the Jays offense, but he too is a 10-and-5 player and trading him will require his authority. Both Bautista and Encarnacion seem to embrace the situation they have in Toronto and I highly doubt they will agree to any trade especially in their late stages of their career, since they both want to win now.
That leaves us with Troy Tulowitzki. Trading Troy Tulowitzki might be the right move for the Blue Jays. Troy Tulowitzki also has a no-trade clause. Once he was dealt to Toronto, Tulowitzki is granted a $2-million assignment bonus and his contract converts to a full no-trade clause from here on out. However, he was completely blind-sided by the trade from Colorado and it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border. Let’s assume he welcomes a trade. What can the Jays get for him? Since the farm system is depleted, I think a young controllable young starting pitcher that can slot into the number 3 position and a couple of prospects would do it. This would address a few issues.

First, it will free up $20 million (less the players coming back), which can be used to grab one of the big-arm free agents. Secondly, help rebuild the farm system, which was emptied to give the Jays the run they had this past season. Thirdly, Tulowitzki isn’t exactly Ironman. He’s missed a significant amount of time every year and playing on turf isn’t improving that odd. And finally,it makes the decision to start Goins and Travis in the middle of the infield going forward a little more convincing. Although Tulowitzki is an above average defender, it can be argued that moving Goins to shortstop improves Toronto defensively. Offensively of course the Blue Jays would lose plenty of power as he is likely the second best short-stop in the game (behind Carlos Correa), but offense shouldn’t be a problem because the Blue Jays were scoring runs in bunches before Tulowitski came here.

On the other hand, trading Tulowitski will put a lot of pressure on Devon Travis to produce. In a small sample size, he has shown plenty of reason to be optimistic. But, that's the problem, its a small sample size. Signing a guy like Ben Zobrist might be a top priority for the Jays going into the offseason if trading Tulowitski is in their thoughts. He can fill in at shortstop, second base and can also play the outfield if Toronto needs to give Bautista, Revere or Pillar a day off. Oh, and he’s been a Jays killer his whole career. The old adage of “If you can’t beat them join them” might bode will for the Blue Jays. Trading Tulowitski can also jeopardize the future of this team offensively after the 2016 season. If he’s traded and Bautista and Encarnacion leave (They are both free agents after 2016). Donaldson would be the lone power bat left from Mount Crushmore.

[North_of_Border]

The trouble with trading Tulo is, Can you get a better return than what you gave up?.... Hoffman, Castro

Likely not at this point.... So the smart thing would be to not deal him.

[bluerap23]

The other problem - all 3 have no trade clause.
It is possible that Tulo would agree to a trade but I don't think it will happen this year. Another trade candidate is Martin.

[Raps in 4]

Tulo is our second best player when he performs at career levels (there is no reason to believe he is declining yet).

[The_Hater]

If they're going to trade a power bat, I still think Edwin is the one. Even though I love the guy.

Trade friendly contract, he can't really play a defensive position anymore and it opens the door for Bats to play DH/1B and improve the defense in RF. And most importantly, I feel he's on the verge of breaking down. Way too many nagging little injuries for a guy that doesn't play much defense anymore.

Not sure what type of return we could expect but maybe the Astros would be a good trade partner here.

[James_Raptors]

If they're going to trade a power bat, I still think Edwin is the one. Even though I love the guy.

Trade friendly contract, he can't really play a defensive position anymore and it opens the door for Bats to play DH/1B and improve the defense in RF. And most importantly, I feel he's on the verge of breaking down. Way too many nagging little injuries for a guy that doesn't play much defense anymore.

Not sure what type of return we could expect but maybe the Astros would be a good trade partner here.

I would love to see Colabello at 1st next year. I also think that of the two, we have a greater chance of bringing back Edwin (in 2017 and beyond) on a team friendlier contract. I also believe Bautista has more cache around the league in terms of a trade return. But the reality is Edwin is breaking down and I'm not confident with Jose in RF anymore both in terms of age and injury. We have some options for 1B although I'm not as confident as about the RF position, unless we're considering something like 3 of Pillar, Revere, Pompey and Saunders. In my opinion, besides Pillar which is a no-brainer, that list scares me. Even a guy like Revere, who many fans adore, I see more as a 4th outfielder. His glove isn't stellar but probably acceptable, let's not talk about his arm, and he never saw a pitch he didn't like (probably swings at an intentional walk). Saunders may have just injured himself again, reading this post. Pompey could be someone we work into the lineup. I'm not sure if he's ready for that leap. He certainly won't provide us with significant power at the plate (not that we suffered from that last year). Either way, if Jose moves to 1B I firmly believe we'll need to upgrade in the outfield rather than just internally (that includes bringing back Revere)

[Lateral Quicks]

I would love to see Colabello at 1st next year. I also think that of the two, we have a greater chance of bringing back Edwin (in 2017 and beyond) on a team friendlier contract. I also believe Bautista has more cache around the league in terms of a trade return. But the reality is Edwin is breaking down and I'm not confident with Jose in RF anymore both in terms of age and injury. We have some options for 1B although I'm not as confident as about the RF position, unless we're considering something like 3 of Pillar, Revere, Pompey and Saunders. In my opinion, besides Pillar which is a no-brainer, that list scares me. Even a guy like Revere, who many fans adore, I see more as a 4th outfielder. His glove isn't stellar but probably acceptable, let's not talk about his arm, and he never saw a pitch he didn't like (probably swings at an intentional walk). Saunders may have just injured himself again, reading this post. Pompey could be someone we work into the lineup. I'm not sure if he's ready for that leap. He certainly won't provide us with significant power at the plate (not that we suffered from that last year). Either way, if Jose moves to 1B I firmly believe we'll need to upgrade in the outfield rather than just internally (that includes bringing back Revere)

It doesn't make any sense to bring Revere back at the salary he'll receive. I agree that he's more of a 4th outfielder type, and it doesn't make sense to spend that many millions on that kind of player. I'd frankly be shocked if he's back.

Let's role with Bautista (for another year at least), Pillar, Saunders (who will come much cheaper than Revere), and Pompey. If Saunders is still hurt, then look to rent a cheap 4th OF for the year.

[The_Hater]

If they're going to trade a power bat, I still think Edwin is the one. Even though I love the guy.

Trade friendly contract, he can't really play a defensive position anymore and it opens the door for Bats to play DH/1B and improve the defense in RF. And most importantly, I feel he's on the verge of breaking down. Way too many nagging little injuries for a guy that doesn't play much defense anymore.

Not sure what type of return we could expect but maybe the Astros would be a good trade partner here.

I would love to see Colabello at 1st next year. I also think that of the two, we have a greater chance of bringing back Edwin (in 2017 and beyond) on a team friendlier contract. I also believe Bautista has more cache around the league in terms of a trade return. But the reality is Edwin is breaking down and I'm not confident with Jose in RF anymore both in terms of age and injury. We have some options for 1B although I'm not as confident as about the RF position, unless we're considering something like 3 of Pillar, Revere, Pompey and Saunders. In my opinion, besides Pillar which is a no-brainer, that list scares me. Even a guy like Revere, who many fans adore, I see more as a 4th outfielder. His glove isn't stellar but probably acceptable, let's not talk about his arm, and he never saw a pitch he didn't like (probably swings at an intentional walk). Saunders may have just injured himself again, reading this post. Pompey could be someone we work into the lineup. I'm not sure if he's ready for that leap. He certainly won't provide us with significant power at the plate (not that we suffered from that last year). Either way, if Jose moves to 1B I firmly believe we'll need to upgrade in the outfield rather than just internally (that includes bringing back Revere)

The offense obviously wouldn't be as good replacing Edwin with a Pompay/Saunders mix but it might be pretty close if Cola steals more AB's from Smoak, Travis steals from Goins and Tulo bounces back to career norms. And the defense and SP added would help elsewhere. And all this assumes that Edwin could actually stay healthy foro 150 games for us next year and it also stands that getting Bats out of RF will help him stay in the lineup too. He plays pretty recklessly out there.

As for EE vs Bats, Edwin doesn't look like a guy that will age particuarily well. Most powerfully built/stocky players don't. Bats is a fitness fanatic so even though he's 2 years older, I'd definitely bit on him being the more productive player going forward and the better extension candidate. I also think he would be a pretty solid 1B with his 3B background.

[James_Raptors]

If they're going to trade a power bat, I still think Edwin is the one. Even though I love the guy.

Trade friendly contract, he can't really play a defensive position anymore and it opens the door for Bats to play DH/1B and improve the defense in RF. And most importantly, I feel he's on the verge of breaking down. Way too many nagging little injuries for a guy that doesn't play much defense anymore.

Not sure what type of return we could expect but maybe the Astros would be a good trade partner here.

I would love to see Colabello at 1st next year. I also think that of the two, we have a greater chance of bringing back Edwin (in 2017 and beyond) on a team friendlier contract. I also believe Bautista has more cache around the league in terms of a trade return. But the reality is Edwin is breaking down and I'm not confident with Jose in RF anymore both in terms of age and injury. We have some options for 1B although I'm not as confident as about the RF position, unless we're considering something like 3 of Pillar, Revere, Pompey and Saunders. In my opinion, besides Pillar which is a no-brainer, that list scares me. Even a guy like Revere, who many fans adore, I see more as a 4th outfielder. His glove isn't stellar but probably acceptable, let's not talk about his arm, and he never saw a pitch he didn't like (probably swings at an intentional walk). Saunders may have just injured himself again, reading this post. Pompey could be someone we work into the lineup. I'm not sure if he's ready for that leap. He certainly won't provide us with significant power at the plate (not that we suffered from that last year). Either way, if Jose moves to 1B I firmly believe we'll need to upgrade in the outfield rather than just internally (that includes bringing back Revere)

The offense obviously wouldn't be as good replacing Edwin with a Pompay/Saunders mix but it might be pretty close if Cola steals more AB's from Smoak, Travis steals from Goins and Tulo bounces back to career norms. And the defense and SP added would help elsewhere. And all this assumes that Edwin could actually stay healthy foro 150 games for us next year and it also stands that getting Bats out of RF will help him stay in the lineup too. He plays pretty recklessly out there.

As for EE vs Bats, Edwin doesn't look like a guy that will age particuarily well. Most powerfully built/stocky players don't. Bats is a fitness fanatic so even though he's 2 years older, I'd definitely bit on him being the more productive player going forward and the better extension candidate. I also think he would be a pretty solid 1B with his 3B background.

I think Jose will be healthier, at least as productive (likely moreso) and more expensive than Edwin in 2017 and beyond. The fact that EE is playing 1B/DH right now , is years younger than Bautista (who just played RF) and body shape/personal fitness levels, proves our points imo. So it comes down to fit and money (mostly this). I would love to see Colabello play pretty regularly this year. It's a shame he can't play the outfield, and really, he CAN'T , so that's not an option unless I want to vomit at my tv screen. Aside from his defense, Smoak tends to drive me a bit nuts at the plate. i mean it's great that he is a left handed at bat, but I often find myself clenching my fists while he's at the plate (I'm noticing a trend here).

In regards to the IF, I have some doubt about Tulo, mostly because it's another season and the dude breaks down. If he can stay healthy. If. If. Every year it seems "IF!". He likely won't stay healthy, let's face it. Now, he's going to hit better no doubt and his glove is stellar and so damn important up the middle. Whether he's worth his current contract is a different conversation but he obviously has value by his defense alone. We're set at 2B , hopefully for years to come with Travis. I'm not sure where Goins fits in. Maybe as utility infielder? I want to think he's worth more, but after that surge at the plate he seemed to tail off. I picture him having a a slightly worse (average wise) career like Manny Lee had, with a bit more pop and all-star/gold glove type defense. If you can hide his bat he still has value.

[The_Hater]

I think you need Goins around with 2 injury prone players playing ahead of him. (At least until they prove otherwise). His ability to play both MI spots at a high level becomes invaluable. Having gold glove caliber players at all 4 spots up the middle is invaluable too.

But if I had to bet on one of the MI's being traded, I'd still put my money on Travis. He's the one that has enough trade value to land a difference making SP in a package. And just like you I'm pro Cola. However Smoak will only cost around $2m next year so I fully expect to see them both back.

[Skin Blues]

The trouble with trading Tulo is, Can you get a better return than what you gave up?

That is not, and should not be, a concern. First of all, Tulo has less value now because we've had him for half of a season including playoffs, and he's a year older. That had value - after all, how much would teams have given up for a player like Tulo on an expiring contract at the trade deadline?? Probably a lot. That value is now gone. We also dumped the Reyes contract which cleared out $20-$30M of dead weight. That's not to say Tulo has no value left, because he certainly does. But we can't expect to get two guys like Hoffman and Castro in return, not without taking on $20-30M of dead weight like the Rockies did when they dealt Tulo.

[Santoki]

I would love to see Colabello at 1st next year. I also think that of the two, we have a greater chance of bringing back Edwin (in 2017 and beyond) on a team friendlier contract. I also believe Bautista has more cache around the league in terms of a trade return. But the reality is Edwin is breaking down and I'm not confident with Jose in RF anymore both in terms of age and injury. We have some options for 1B although I'm not as confident as about the RF position, unless we're considering something like 3 of Pillar, Revere, Pompey and Saunders. In my opinion, besides Pillar which is a no-brainer, that list scares me. Even a guy like Revere, who many fans adore, I see more as a 4th outfielder. His glove isn't stellar but probably acceptable, let's not talk about his arm, and he never saw a pitch he didn't like (probably swings at an intentional walk). Saunders may have just injured himself again, reading this post. Pompey could be someone we work into the lineup. I'm not sure if he's ready for that leap. He certainly won't provide us with significant power at the plate (not that we suffered from that last year). Either way, if Jose moves to 1B I firmly believe we'll need to upgrade in the outfield rather than just internally (that includes bringing back Revere)

It doesn't make any sense to bring Revere back at the salary he'll receive. I agree that he's more of a 4th outfielder type, and it doesn't make sense to spend that many millions on that kind of player. I'd frankly be shocked if he's back.

Let's role with Bautista (for another year at least), Pillar, Saunders (who will come much cheaper than Revere), and Pompey. If Saunders is still hurt, then look to rent a cheap 4th OF for the year.

It's Rajai Davis all over again. The problem is we haven't been able to replace LF with anyone internally since those days. But, if the budget is what it is, then it's hard to put $6.7 million into Revere as much as I like the guy. You just have to pray to god Saunders can give you 100 games. You can figure out the other 60 with Pompey and another deadline replacement.

[polo007]

According to Shi Davidi of Rogers sportsnet, the Toronto Blue Jays will have to ante up through trade or free agency.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-will-have-to-ante-up-through-trade-or-free-agency/

BOCA RATON, Fla. – The Toronto Blue Jays are facing some difficult decisions now that they must turn the array of ideas gathered during baseball’s annual GM meetings into a concrete plan for the off-season, with no obvious ways to address their glaring needs.

One the one hand, getting the “two, and possibly three” starters interim general manager Tony LaCava says the AL East champions are hoping for could be accomplished by shopping in a robust free agent market, but doing so would mark a significant shift in recent organizational approach.

On the other hand, they could try to work out a trade and the Blue Jays spent a good amount of time over the past few days gauging what the market is like on that front.

Still, the challenge there is that their farm system probably lacks the type of upper-level inventory needed to pull off a deal for an impact starter, and subtracting from the big-league core probably doesn’t make much sense.

“There’s obviously interest in our offensive players, they’re very, very good and teams are interested in them, but we’d have to balance do we want to use that to get pitching. Probably not, because that diminishes from the current team,” LaCava said Thursday before departing the plush Boca Raton Resort and Spa. “Nothing is close, we haven’t really discussed anyone in particular, but there are always teams asking about that.”

While there’s always room for creativity, the way former GM Alex Anthopoulos built a package around a first-time arbitration eligible Brett Lawrie last November to land Josh Donaldson, pulling off such deals isn’t easy.

Then there’s the free agency track, and the Blue Jays haven’t given a free-agent starter a multi-year deal since former GM J.P. Ricciardi signed A.J. Burnett to a $55-million, five-year contract in December 2005. The only free-agent starters they’ve signed to major-league contracts since then are John Thomson, Tomo Ohka and Chien-Ming Wang, each a dice-roll reclamation project, so suddenly diving into that pool to snap up two or three pitchers would be a pretty radical jump.

Estrada is one piece, and an important one, but one way or another they’re going to have to ante up, either in free agency or in trade.

“Years of control and price – it comes down to that,” says LaCava. “You try to keep it within reason balancing today and tomorrow.”

The weighing really starts now.

[Fairview4Life]

The trouble with trading Tulo is, Can you get a better return than what you gave up?.... Hoffman, Castro

Likely not at this point.... So the smart thing would be to not deal him.

Those are sunk costs and are meaningless now. It doesn't matter what you traded for him, unless you are solely focused on losing/not losing face at the expense of the team. The smart thing very well might be to not move him, but it shouldn't have anything to do with Castro and Hoffman.

[changes]

it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border.

Where did you get this from?

[James_Raptors]

I wouldn't be surprised if Revere is gone.

[polo007]

According to the Toronto Sun, the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to pursue multiple trade possibilities.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/11/12/blue-jays-looking-to-pursue-multiple-trade-possibilities

LaCava has said that the Jays are in the market, via free agency or trade, for three starters, two if Estrada returns. Mark Buehrle is expected to retire and David Price is a free agent and will likely not sign with Toronto. As of now, R.A. Dickey and Marcus Stroman are the two starters left over from this season’s playoff run. LaCava said Drew Hutchison, who struggled in the second half of 2015 and was left off the playoff roster, is a real possibility to start in 2016 and, depending on what happens in the off-season, they’re also considering possibly moving a young reliever or two from the bullpen to the rotation, perhaps Roberto Osuna, Liam Hendriks and/or Aaron Sanchez.

“(Friday) will tell us a lot more about what we’re doing one way or the other, and that’s probably the first step,” said LaCava of the Estrada situation. “We’ll see what happens there.”

LaCava said the GM meetings this week in steamy south Florida were productive in laying down some groundwork for possible future deals. The next major gathering for MLB types is the winter meetings, in Nashville, Dec. 7-10.

“I don’t think there’s anything close (for us yet),” said LaCava. “We’ve talked to a lot of teams, so we’ve laid a lot of groundwork. We knew the free agent landscape last week and now we kind of have a better idea of the trade landscape, but that changes daily and hourly sometimes.”

Unsurprisingly, LaCava said the Jays’ offensive stars have already generated a lot of interest from his GM brethren.

“They’re very good and teams are interested in them, but again we’d have to balance. Do we want to use that to get pitching? Probably not, because that diminishes from your current team. So nothing’s close and we haven’t really discussed anybody in particular. But there are always teams that are asking about those guys,” said LaCava. “Everyone’s trying to see what’s available, and you’re asking what’s available through them.

“We’ve got quite a list of possibilities (of possible players coming in from trades or free agency) and now we’ll pursue some of them, some of them we’ll think more about and probably won’t (pursue), but there are plenty of ideas that we’ve come up with and now we’ll see how the market unfolds,” he added. “We’re open minded for different scenarios.”

[jawadh]

it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border.

Where did you get this from?

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-trade-troy-tulowitzki-tough-year-trust-102615?cmpid=feed:-sports-RAMP-Cxense

You can tell by this interview that he wasn't comfortable with the trade and isn't quiet settled. Most athletes always speak in cliches, but Troy seem to be pretty blunt about it. Personally, I don't think he wants to be here, but he's not going to nag about it cause he's as professional as anyone. He lacked trust in the front office after he got traded and now that AA is gone, I don't think his trust is any better. no?

[Skin Blues]

it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border.

Where did you get this from?

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-trade-troy-tulowitzki-tough-year-trust-102615?cmpid=feed:-sports-RAMP-Cxense

You can tell by this interview that he wasn't comfortable with the trade and isn't quiet settled. Most athletes always speak in cliches, but Troy seem to be pretty blunt about it. Personally, I don't think he wants to be here, but he's not going to nag about it cause he's as professional as anyone. He lacked trust in the front office after he got traded and now that AA is gone, I don't think his trust is any better. no?

"I’m excited to go to spring training and get a fresh start with the team and be with these guys for a whole year and not have to worry about trade talks ... I’m looking forward to having a year where I don’t have to talk about it. It’s going to be great."

Doesn't really sound like a guy that wants to move back south of the border.

[The_Hater]

it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border.

Where did you get this from?

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-trade-troy-tulowitzki-tough-year-trust-102615?cmpid=feed:-sports-RAMP-Cxense

You can tell by this interview that he wasn't comfortable with the trade and isn't quiet settled. Most athletes always speak in cliches, but Troy seem to be pretty blunt about it. Personally, I don't think he wants to be here, but he's not going to nag about it cause he's as professional as anyone. He lacked trust in the front office after he got traded and now that AA is gone, I don't think his trust is any better. no?

He was shocked that the team he played his entire career for traded him without warning and wore his emotions on his sleeve about that specific situation. That is very different than he was upset about being traded to Canada specifically and he didn't like playing in Toronto for the 2-3 months that followed. You're making a bunch of assumptions here to conclude that he'd 'welcome a trade back south of the border' with that evidence.

Since he liked being grounded in Denver so much, we could easily assume that he he'd welcome being equally grounded in his new city.