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http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/879358

Regression candidate or not, the Jays want to lock him in.

I hope we don't overpay.

My guess, $45M over 4 years

Jays will likely lose Price and Burhle. That leaves a big hole. So that makes it very important they atleast try to bring back Estrada. if they let him walk, they will have the spend the money on his replacement anyway. So why not bring back the guy they are already familier with.

North_of_Border wrote:Jays will likely lose Price and Burhle. That leaves a big hole. So that makes it very important they atleast try to bring back Estrada. if they let him walk, they will have the spend the money on his replacement anyway. So why not bring back the guy they are already familier with.

Because Estrada is coming off a career year, possibly a fluke year, and will probably be more expensive than better SPs that will also come with cheaper price tags.

Of course I questioned AA locking up Joey Bats long term after he had his huge season so what do I know. With Estrada, it will all depend on the price tag.

I'd be happy if they did something like 3 years/35 mil

3-4 years at something around 10 mil per + incentives would be nice. With the 4th year being only partially guaranteed.

Some high figures thrown around here. Max for me is 3/30 or 4/40 with a club option for the fourth year. With a picked attached to him and a large array of FA pitching out there you don't need to break the bank for Estrada.

I really don't want him back -- 32 years old who has had one very good year and has credited Navarro with a lot of his success, who will be playing else where next season.

Let's do the thing where we don't do this thing.

Schad wrote:Let's do the thing where we don't do this thing.

While I'm tending to lean that way too, is there a price tag out there you would bring him back at?

I'm hoping to see a 3 year deal (club option on 3rd year) somewhere in the price range of 3/30 or 3/33.If he performs like last year that's a ridiculous steal considering he was our true ace from the second he was brought back from the bullpen to start throughout the playoffs. The problem, like many have, is that this past year could be an outlier, or what the hell happens when Navarro leaves?

I too would do 3/$30M. Given he significantly outperformed his peripherals this year (such as not allowing many home runs - his big problem - with runners on base) and lack of track record, anything more wouldn't be worth the risk.

The expectation would be that he fills a Mark Buerhle 4th starter role for half the cost. Soak up a lot of innings and keep the team in most games.

James_Raptors wrote:I'm hoping to see a 3 year deal (club option on 3rd year) somewhere in the price range of 3/30 or 3/33.If he performs like last year that's a ridiculous steal considering he was our true ace from the second he was brought back from the bullpen to start throughout the playoffs. The problem, like many have, is that this past year could be an outlier, or what the hell happens when Navarro leaves?

He's got $15.8 for 1 year if he wants it so he's not going to take $30/3 with only 2 years guaranteed. That's basically adding on one season for only $4 million to the deal already on the table. He's definitely going to get 3-4 guaranteed years on the market and at his age and using his career year as leverage, the years are going to matter. I think that he'll trade $$ for years.

The_Hater wrote:

James_Raptors wrote:I'm hoping to see a 3 year deal (club option on 3rd year) somewhere in the price range of 3/30 or 3/33.If he performs like last year that's a ridiculous steal considering he was our true ace from the second he was brought back from the bullpen to start throughout the playoffs. The problem, like many have, is that this past year could be an outlier, or what the hell happens when Navarro leaves?

He's got $15.8 for 1 year if he wants it so he's not going to take $30/3 with only 2 years guaranteed. That's basically adding on one season for only $4 million to the deal already on the table. He's definitely going to get 3-4 guaranteed years on the market and at his age and using his career year as leverage, the years are going to matter. I think that he'll trade $$ for years.

Aye I know the math, that's what "I'm hoping to see". The higher that number goes up the less comfortable I am with it. I'm simply not confident that his numbers are sustainable so the higher those dollar figures get the riskier the contract is for us (obviously). I'm really concerned this is going to turn into a 3-4 year deal with at least 3 guaranteed for 15-ish per.

The_Hater wrote:

Schad wrote:Let's do the thing where we don't do this thing.

While I'm tending to lean that way too, is there a price tag out there you would bring him back at?

Not sure, really, because now we have the added carrot in the form of draft pick compensation if he walks. I'm not really high on Estrada's future, and while a lower AAV would make it easier to move, if he regresses in a big way the contract means we're going to have to give him a much longer leash in rediscovering his form than is conducive to winning in 2016.

Edit: on the pick, a reminder that it's not just the pick itself that appeals, it's the flexibility that comes from having a larger bonus pool. We already have an extra second rounder, and having a substantial pile of coin to work with in this upcoming draft could be really useful in restocking our asset base.

joseph227 wrote:
I read on another forum that Estrada has figured out out to be Chris Young(flat, slow fastballs at the top of the zone so hitters launch it high for lazy flyouts) so he might not regress as much as we think.

It's unclear whether even Chris Young has learned to be Chris Young, though. This past season is the only one that deviates from his career script of "is quite good at home playing for [team with one of the biggest parks in baseball], gets hit much harder on the road", and it looks crazy aberrant even by his vaunted standards.

Plus, given that he has averaged 1.28 fWAR per 200 IP from 2008 on, I'm not sure that being Chris Young is such a great thing anyway.

Edit: I appear to have quoted a ghost post.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/664999902833999872[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/665000584676790272[/tweet]

Wo1verine wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/664999902833999872[/tweet]

2/26 would be great. No complaints from me. Don't mind the AAV being slightly higher on a 2-year deal.