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North_of_Border wrote:I think they might trade Martin if Pentecost is ready. Jays let Yan Gomes and d'Arnaud go. I hope they keep Pentecost. He is one of the best all around Catching propects in the league.

Tulo should be dealt by then and "both" if not only 1 of Bautista/Edwin will not be back.

The 2017 roster, minus Martin, Tulo and atleast 1 of Bautista/Edwin should be manageable.

I know that sounds like a weak roster then, but there will be other moves. People will replace these guys that leave. A lot can happen by 2017

bluerap23 wrote:I started to think about what the current roster would cost for 2017, and then realized it was going to cost WAY too much for Rogers. I've made a few assumptions about escalating salaries and replaced a number of starters such as Smoak, Revere, etc with min. salary guys to try and make it more manageable. I made Jose and Edwin into very generous people. Long story short - this team is really going to have an impossible time keeping the core together beyond 2016.

Tulowitzki, Troy $20,000,000
Martin, Russell $20,000,000
Bautista, Jose $15,000,000
Dickey, R.A. Replacement $12,000,000
Estrada, Marco $14,500,000
Encarnacion, Edwin $15,000,000
Happ, J.A. $13,000,000
Donaldson, Josh $18,000,000
Cecil, Brett $5,000,000
Backup Catcher $2,000,000
Loup, Aaron $2,000,000
Hutchison, Drew $3,400,000
Stroman, Marcus $3,000,000
Pillar, Kevin $507,500
Sanchez, Aaron $507,500
Pompey, Dalton $507,500
Osuna, Roberto $507,500
Travis, Devon $507,500
Carrera, Ezequiel $507,500
Colabello, Chris $2,700,000
Dominguez, Matt $507,500
Dragmire, Brady $507,500
Goins, Ryan $507,500
Jenkins, Chad $507,500
Jimenez, A.J. $507,500
Schultz, Bo $507,500
Tepera, Ryan $507,500
Kawasaki, Munenori $507,500
TOTAL - TOR $152,705,000.00

Free agency will be a big issue. The eight pending free agents at the end of 2016 include Bautista, Encarnacion, Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak, and pitchers R.A. Dickey, Drew Storen, Brett Cecil and Jesse Chavez. That’s an estimated $59 million in guaranteed salary that could disappear from the books. If the Jays wait until November before dealing with their free agents, it will already be too late.

The Blue Jays ended the 2015 campaign with a payroll of $135.7 million, the 10th highest in baseball and the largest in the team’s 39 seasons. Yes, that looks good on them but, as Forbes reported in December, MLB’s gross revenues increased by $500 million in 2015, to an estimated $9.5 billion. Nobody is losing money.

The Jays, by winning the AL East and battling the Royals to Game 6 of the AL Championship Series, reportedly generated $50 million in unexpected revenues. Where is that money headed? The payroll for the 25-player opening day roster in 2016 projects to $138 million. If winning generated that much extra revenue in 2015, why not try it again?

Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins received word at the winter meetings from Encarnacion’s agent that if the club waits until after opening day to try to extend his contract, Encarnacion will go through the free-agent process. Other important contracts that need to be addressed by the Jays include Bautista, Storen and Cecil. They will talk to them all in the spring.

Then there’s the AL MVP. Can the Jays convince Josh Donaldson to sign a long-term contract and avoid future free agency? Donaldson is headed to arbitration next month and will earn just under $12 million in 2016, with two more arbitration years after that. The Jays need to lock up at least some of their stars as a show of good faith to fans and as a sign to other players that they are intent on remaining contenders.

If the Jays make no serious effort in the next six months to extend their own free agents and if the club is struggling in the standings by the all-star break it all changes. With the trade deadline looming, what will be the message to Jays players that are already locked up long-term? Tulowitzki is signed through 2020, with a total of $98 million guaranteed. Catcher Russ Martin is signed through 2019 and is owed $75 million. And the two men who convinced the Montrealer to come to Toronto, Anthopoulos and former president Paul Beeston, are gone. If the Jays aren’t contending, do they ask out?

But, hey, all is not payroll doom and gloom. The Jays still have at least 14 solid major-leaguers who will be under club control for three to six years of major-league service. In addition to Tulowitzki, Martin and Donaldson, the list includes Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Sanchez, Happ, Roberto Osuna, Chris Colabello, Devon Travis, Ryan Goins, Dalton Pompey, Drew Hutchison and Aaron Loup.