RealGM

Interesting read...


http://www.tsn.ca/talent/oddsmakers-like-red-sox-world-series-chances-more-than-jays-after-price-signing-1.402837

Oddsmakers adjust to gamblers' tendency to throw money at new shiny object.

Odds Makers set the Price Line.....

(negotiator!)

Oddsmakers don't care about the Red Sox's world series chances; the actual likelihood of them winning is irrelevant to Vegas.

And yet, something to be said... Vegas must still consider the sharks with the real $$.

(I just personally believe Price is legitimately over-rated)

The purpose of oddsmaking in Vegas is not to predict outcomes, but to flatten betting so that Vegas wins no matter who wins the World Series. If Vegas thinks that people are going to start betting on something, they'll lower the odds. If Vegas needs more people to bet on a team, they'll lengthen the odds. They care about people's perceptions (andyes, even the sharks), not about what's likely to happen on the field.

Sounds like a good time to bet somebody other than Boston then.

Schad wrote:Oddsmakers adjust to gamblers' tendency to throw money at new shiny object.

Exhibit A: 2013

Schad wrote:Oddsmakers adjust to gamblers' tendency to throw money at new shiny object.

Yep I bet the sox fans are chucking money on futures like crazy today.

IIRC Boston had the highest forecast WAR by Fangraphs prior to last season. Stuff happens.

Lateral Quicks wrote:IIRC Boston had the highest forecast WAR by Fangraphs prior to last season. Stuff happens.

They were supposed to win the AL East and came in last place. Maybe it's the curse of the Vegas favourite.

Santoki wrote:

Lateral Quicks wrote:IIRC Boston had the highest forecast WAR by Fangraphs prior to last season. Stuff happens.

They were supposed to win the AL East and came in last place. Maybe it's the curse of the Vegas favourite.

And wasn't Washington the War favourite in the NL? Great seasons by Harper and Scherzer couldn't stop their implosion.

We were expected to win the World Series back in September.

LLJ wrote:We were expected to win the World Series back in September.

Overwhelming favourites and "expert" picks heading into the playoffs. But I guess that was assuming our $30 million ace wasn't going to be our 3rd best starter.

LLJ wrote:We were expected to win the World Series back in September.

Precisely the point at which I knew we wouldn't win the WS.

Remember a few years ago when Boston finished last. Oddsmakers didn't give them a chance next season. They won the Championship..... good job oddsmakers

The following season, coming off a fresh championship, Oddsmakers had Boston as a favorite to win it all again.... They finished at the bottom.... good job again

Lets see how next season goes...

North_of_Border wrote:Remember a few years ago when Boston finished last. Oddsmakers didn't give them a chance next season. They won the Championship..... good job oddsmakers

The following season, coming off a fresh championship, Oddsmakers had Boston as a favorite to win it all again.... They finished at the bottom.... good job again .

You completely misunderstand the job of Oddsmakers.

Unless Boston starts suddenly getting production from some of the albatross position player contracts they have, I doubt they even sniff the playoffs over the next few years. Just enough time to waste Price's final productive years.

With all of their young talent and it being big Papis last year, I think the Sox win the division next year. They had a pretty strong end to the season from what I remember

thats what makes them odd