The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[polo007]

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Toronto-Dominion Bank and the Toronto Blue Jays are in the final stages of talks to expand a sponsorship deal that would secure TD’s status as the official bank of the baseball club.

Since 2013, TD has been the exclusive financial-institution sponsor of the team, allowing the bank to promote its brand inside the stadium with amenities such as TD-branded premium seating for season ticket holders.

As the existing deal came up for renewal, the Blue Jays launched a competitive process and gauged interest from a number of companies, according to sources with knowledge of the process. Even as the Jays' on-field prospects are in decline, their value to sponsors appears to be on the rise. Other banks that had early discussions about securing the sponsorship included Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

After extended negotiations, TD has emerged as the apparent winner, although it is unclear whether all terms of the deal have been finalized, or for how long TD may have extended its sponsorship rights. Two sources familiar with the process suggested TD could wind up paying as much as $20-million annually for the privilege of keeping its name attached to the team, although there is no certainty the bank would agree to an amount that high.

Blue Jays owner Rogers Communications Inc. has explored the possibility of selling the rights to rename the Rogers Centre, where the team plays its home games. Team officials have urged Rogers to look at new ways to increase revenue, as the stadium generates less income from sources such as concessions than most other ballparks in Major League Baseball and will soon need major renovations.

Had Rogers agreed to allow TD or another bank to place its name on the outside of the building, in tandem with in-stadium sponsorship rights, it could have substantially increased the value of any deal. But multiple sources said the telecommunications giant will almost certainly keep the Rogers name on the building, citing its importance to the company’s brand and to the family legacy left by the late Ted Rogers.

[polo007]

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[polo007]

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[Double Helix]

I trust you guys to explain the situation here.

I know we have Vladdy Jr and that he looks like the top prospect in baseball. I know we have Bichette and that he’s also highly thought of. To truly compete don’t we need to stock up on at least another 3-4 prospects of that relative caliber first st other positions and then another 4-6 medium tier guys, including pitchers, and then with like 3-4 A-list and 4-6 mid-tier... start spending money on some vets?

How do we get the other 2 x A-list prospects (at a minimum) and the other 4-6 medium tier prospects?

Are we just planning on being bad the next few years here and hitting on our first round picks there and those guys all being A-list? Can we unload any other vets for some mid-tier prospects?

Just trying to get a better feel for the plan here.

[Schad]

I trust you guys to explain the situation here.

I know we have Vladdy Jr and that he looks like the top prospect in baseball. I know we have Bichette and that he’s also highly thought of. To truly compete don’t we need to stock up on at least another 3-4 prospects of that relative caliber first st other positions and then another 4-6 medium tier guys, including pitchers, and then with like 3-4 A-list and 4-6 mid-tier... start spending money on some vets?

How do we get the other 2 x A-list prospects (at a minimum) and the other 4-6 medium tier prospects?

Are we just planning on being bad the next few years here and hitting on our first round picks there and those guys all being A-list? Can we unload any other vets for some mid-tier prospects?

Just trying to get a better feel for the plan here.

We get them with great difficulty. With the possible exception of Stroman (and that would require him to bounce back significantly), we have no vets to trade for high-end prospects, and any prospects drafted now are unlikely to reach the majors until 2022 or later. So we really have to hope that some of the kids in the system today -- particularly on the pitching side -- grow by leaps and bounds.

[phillipmike]

I trust you guys to explain the situation here.

I know we have Vladdy Jr and that he looks like the top prospect in baseball. I know we have Bichette and that he’s also highly thought of. To truly compete don’t we need to stock up on at least another 3-4 prospects of that relative caliber first st other positions and then another 4-6 medium tier guys, including pitchers, and then with like 3-4 A-list and 4-6 mid-tier... start spending money on some vets?

How do we get the other 2 x A-list prospects (at a minimum) and the other 4-6 medium tier prospects?

Are we just planning on being bad the next few years here and hitting on our first round picks there and those guys all being A-list? Can we unload any other vets for some mid-tier prospects?

Just trying to get a better feel for the plan here.

Of course adding all that is nice but it isnt really needed to get them where they need to go. Jays have a top 3 or 5 farm depending who you ask. They have the best prospect in baseball coming (Vladdy), a top 3 catching prospect (Jansen), good infield prospect (Gurriel), and maybe 2 backend guys in the making in Borucki and Reid-Foley. All of this is going with Maile, Smoak, Travis, Diaz, Drury, Hernandez, Grichuk, Pillar, Mckinney, Sanchez and Stroman. Then later comes Bichette, Alford, and guys like Biggio and maybe some more arms.

Baseball isnt like basketball or hockey where you need top picks - of course hitting on your picks is very important but talent and production can come out of nowhere whether it is a minor trade, waivers, or minor league signings.

What the Jays need is playing time for young players to see what they can be going forward. 2019 should be a developmental year and hope we can move off of guys like Martin and Morales to open up playing time. Only 5-6 players will be over 30 next season Morales, Tulo, Smoak, Martin, Pillar, and Tepera, And only 3 players are guaranteed salaries in Morales, Tulo and Martin. Everyone else is under 30 and doesnt require a guaranteed salary... its a good start.

[Schad]

Issue with many of the named players is that they aren't going to be here for much longer. Smoak, Solarte, Pillar, Travis, Sanchez, Grichuk and Stroman are FAs by 2020 at the latest, and none are particularly good options for extensions. With 2019 as a lost year, they're really not much more than trade bait.

[phillipmike]

Which is good, you can trade them, let them walk or sign them to extensions if they have turned a corner. In a perfect world only Grichuk is back on the team for 2019 and maybe Sanchez as his value is too low.

[Schad]

Sure. But it does speak to the issue we have, which is that beyond the prospects coming up, we have very, very little. There are few second/third year pros on the roster; there's Diaz, there's a couple middle relievers, there's maybe Brandon Drury, and that's it. It's as ground-up of a rebuild job as one can imagine, even with the top-end talent in the system.

It's why the talk about being highly competitive within three years is a concern; sure, that would be nice, but we shouldn't try to rush this. We need to remain in the talent acquisition stage for at least two years before trying to build this back up, and need to be very careful about how and when we allot resources.

[Skin Blues]

The top end talent that isn't already on the MLB roster is coming up in 2019, and it seems ready to contribute for the most part. Pearson is lagging due to injuries but most of the big prospects are in the upper minors or MLB already - Vlad, Bo, Biggio, SRF, Borucki, Alford. How long do you delay contention if you think 3 (!!) years is too fast? You wait longer than that and you end up with another tiny 2 year window and it's over again. And then after waiting 4 years to contend, after one playoff run people will be clamoring to trade Vlad and Bo and whoever else has emerged as a star, so we aren't "stuck" with them in their final season a la Donaldson.

Grichuk/Diaz/McKinney/Teoscar/Giles/Stro/Sanchez is a decent MLB core to work around, although it's obviously lacking stardom. More than just Brandon Drury, for sure. Pillar/Smoak are nearing the end of their time here but are still positive contributors. Gurriel might be an every day MI or might be a bust, though we have Diaz at SS as well (and late 2019/early 2020, Bo, obviously). If not Drury, then Travis at 2B. There aren't any glaring holes on the roster other than the rotation.

Doing what the Astros did, as some would like to see - burning it to the ground for 3+ years - is not an option. They didn't have their top prospects already on the roster, or close to it. They had Keuchel and Altuve come out of nowhere in 2014 to become stars (their final year of tanking) and they brought up Springer in the second half of that lost season, but that was it as far as wasting the prime years of their big guns. As soon as Springer/Correa/McCullers were added to the roster along with emerging superstars Altuve/Keuchel, they were making a (successful) playoff push. Our 2020 season (if not 2019 itself) is more akin to that 2015 Astros season. We simply are not in a position to tank for multiple years. We don't have the hot trash on the MLB roster/upper minors that they did in 2011/2012/2013.

So, as much as some people would HATE for us to try to contend in 2020 (or even 2019 depending how certain guys perform in the first part of the season) it looks like it has a good chance of happening. Personally, I'll take 6 years of a 35% chance of playoffs (with the opportunity for more) vs tanking for 4 years in order to get 2 seasons with a 70% chance (if we're lucky). I have zero interest in tanking for the first 3+ years of Vlad is on this team.

[phillipmike]

Sure. But it does speak to the issue we have, which is that beyond the prospects coming up, we have very, very little. There are few second/third year pros on the roster; there's Diaz, there's a couple middle relievers, there's maybe Brandon Drury, and that's it. It's as ground-up of a rebuild job as one can imagine, even with the top-end talent in the system.

It's why the talk about being highly competitive within three years is a concern; sure, that would be nice, but we shouldn't try to rush this. We need to remain in the talent acquisition stage for at least two years before trying to build this back up, and need to be very careful about how and when we allot resources.

We differ on the bold and Skin Blues basically outlined exactly how I feel on the matter.

And to add to it there doesn't need to be an aggressive push in terms of additions and moves to force competition - just organic growth and development a la Oakland. You don't force it, make the best long term moves and your team tells you if they are ready. I see this happening in 2020 IF healthy.

Make the best moves possible and see what the team does. I personally see a lot to work with on the roster and in the system.

[Schad]

Grichuk/Diaz/McKinney/Teoscar/Giles/Stro/Sanchez is a decent MLB core to work around, although it's obviously lacking stardom. More than just Brandon Drury, for sure. Pillar/Smoak are nearing the end of their time here but are still positive contributors. Gurriel might be an every day MI or might be a bust, though we have Diaz at SS as well (and late 2019/early 2020, Bo, obviously). If not Drury, then Travis at 2B. There aren't any glaring holes on the roster other than the rotation.

That's not a good core at all. How many of those players even project to be league-average? Grichuk is around that point; Stroman hopefully rebounds, maybe Giles does as well, but both are gone after 2020. Sanchez isn't a major league starter, Diaz/Teoscar have some utility but have posted well below average production this year, and I think that we're getting far ahead of ourselves on McKinney.

Doing what the Astros did, as some would like to see - burning it to the ground for 3+ years - is not an option. They didn't have their top prospects already on the roster, or close to it. They had Keuchel and Altuve come out of nowhere in 2014 to become stars (their final year of tanking) and they brought up Springer in the second half of that lost season, but that was it as far as wasting the prime years of their big guns. As soon as Springer/Correa/McCullers were added to the roster along with emerging superstars Altuve/Keuchel, they were making a (successful) playoff push. Our 2020 season (if not 2019 itself) is more akin to that 2015 Astros season. We simply are not in a position to tank for multiple years. We don't have the hot trash on the MLB roster/upper minors that they did in 2011/2012/2013.

So, as much as some people would HATE for us to try to contend in 2020 (or even 2019 depending how certain guys perform in the first part of the season) it looks like it has a good chance of happening. Personally, I'll take 6 years of a 35% chance of playoffs (with the opportunity for more) vs tanking for 4 years in order to get 2 seasons with a 70% chance (if we're lucky). I have zero interest in tanking for the first 3+ years of Vlad is on this team.

It's already burned to the ground. And yes, I would hate to see us try to contend in 2020 and have most of that supposed "core" walk thereafter. You have zero interest in being bad for the first three years we have Vlad; I have zero interest in some kind of quixotic attempt to compete in year two that then leaves us in even worse shape for years three, four and five.

[Skin Blues]

You have zero interest in being bad for the first three years we have Vlad; I have zero interest in some kind of quixotic attempt to compete in year two that then leaves us in even worse shape for years three, four and five.

Yup, philosophical differences.

[Schad]

Philosophical and mathematical, I'd say. 6 years at an average 35% chance to make the playoffs doesn't really square with my expectation of what we'd look like if we tried to make a push in 2020, failed, and lost a large portion of our roster (again).

[Marmoset]

We differ on the bold and Skin Blues basically outlined exactly how I feel on the matter.

And to add to it there doesn't need to be an aggressive push in terms of additions and moves to force competition - just organic growth and development a la Oakland. You don't force it, make the best long term moves and your team tells you if they are ready. I see this happening in 2020 IF healthy.

Make the best moves possible and see what the team does. I personally see a lot to work with on the roster and in the system.

I think this is the key in any sport. You can certainly plan your desired window(s) of contention, but ultimately the players will tell you when it's time.

We should be trying to develop a perennial contender, not rushing to fit into a 'window'. If that means it takes a little longer, I'm good with that. Trying to contend with a team that's not ready or able to do that brings us right back to where we are right now.

[dagger]

Very interesting game tonight in Lansing for imagining the future.

Lansing plays Michigan State in the annual Crosstown exhibition game

Nate Pearson will start, and Kloffenstein will relieve him/

[Hoopstarr]

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-blue-jays-president-mark-shapiro-linked-potential-mets-job-235231923.html

[Cyrus]

Hope we don't lose , Ben Cherington, he's the guy I think would be biggest loss.

[Tanner]

Shapiro is a big deal in baseball circles. I can’t imagine he’s thrilled working in an environment where he is handcuffed by bean counters who won’t let him rebuild, won’t approve stadium renovations, and a media/fanbase that hates him for no reason. Of course if he went to the Mets he’d be going to anworse ownership group and more bloody thirsty media market so pick your poison, Mark.

[Schad]

I mean, working for Rogers can't be a lot of fun, but yeah...whatever directional meddling they do has nothing on the Wilpons, who make all of the major baseball decisions. And Rogers might not spend as much as we'd like, but they're nowhere near as cheap as the Wilpons. Their long-term payroll situation isn't atrocious, but $55m in 2020 for Cespedes, Wright and Bruce at 34, 37 and 33 respectively will be a hindrance, and they have very little to spend this offseason after arb raises.

If they actually jump ship for that **** disaster, the state of the Jays is even worse than any of us imagined. Being Mets management is one of the worst jobs in sports, because it comes with all the profile and none of the influence.