The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[ratul]

Nonsense - Shapiro is a proven loser who destroys fan bases and get away with it because he was in moneyball. He had 4 winning seasons out of 15 in Cleveland. He destroyed the cleveland fan base with his continual commiditization of players and pretty much had a bottom third farm system while in Cleveland.
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/cle/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

Double A is a proven winner. Toronto, LA, Atlanta. All he does is continue to find ways to win.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

It's also crazy that people give Shapiro a pass for this 'rebuild' when double A did the same. He had to trade Vernon and that ungodly contract, trade Doc and then also rebuild our AWFUL farm system.

Shapiro needs to be fired. Yesterday.

[Schad]

I have no idea where you're getting that Cleveland had a consistently awful farm system. Alongside the Astros, no current good team is as heavily reliant on homegrown talent as the Indians: about 80% of their fWAR in 2018 came from players who'd never donned a MLB jersey other than Cleveland's, and the vast majority of those players were brought in under Shapiro (and that doesn't include the likes of Trevor Bauer or Yan Gomes, who had cups of coffee with other teams but were still prospects when acquired).


Also, this thing about players being commodities is bizarre. Shapiro traded veterans because Cleveland had financial restrictions that meant that they were unlikely to win bidding wars, and thus had to be traded. You might recognize this as precisely what AA did with some of our veterans, and what every other smaller-market team has done at times. But Shapiro did it really, really well; whatever criticism you have of his drafting, no team in baseball got more in terms of net value from their trades of vets than did Cleveland under his watch.

[phillipmike]

Nonsense - Shapiro is a proven loser who destroys fan bases and get away with it because he was in moneyball. He had 4 winning seasons out of 15 in Cleveland. He destroyed the cleveland fan base with his continual commiditization of players and pretty much had a bottom third farm system while in Cleveland.
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/cle/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

Double A is a proven winner. Toronto, LA, Atlanta. All he does is continue to find ways to win.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

It's also crazy that people give Shapiro a pass for this 'rebuild' when double A did the same. He had to trade Vernon and that ungodly contract, trade Doc and then also rebuild our AWFUL farm system.

Shapiro needs to be fired. Yesterday.

https://jaysjournal.com/2019/01/20/blue-jays-worst-trades-in-franchise-history/

4 of 8 were from Anthopoulos. One was Anthopoulos trading with Shapiro where Shapiro made out like a bandit.

Shapiro was great at trading and developing prospects - he had no other choice because he had no money.

AA signed Bautista and Edwin to great deals. The rest of the major money he took on were neutral or horrid. His trades were ok and his drafting was great in the first 3 seasons but horrid in the last. He got to success in 2015 because of his payrolls after it covered up some of his big mistakes.

Anthopoulos was a good GM, he did well for the Jays. But his risks were risks that didnt pay off and when they failed he could try again because he had a payroll to allow him to do that. He had more room for error. He has money at his disposal to sign Bautista to the 2nd biggest extension in Jays history, he had money to his disposal to hand out the biggest free agent deal in Jays history to Martin, he had money at his disposal to sign Edwin to a 37M dollar deal after 4 good months. Josh Donaldson got an MLB record in arbitration at the time with the jays at 23M. AA could have afforded to make Romero's 30M go away. Money at his disposal to take on Reyes, Johnson, Buerhle, and Dickey all in one off-season to go with Melky.

Tulo 98M
Reyes 92M
Martin 82M
Bautista 78M
Donaldson 51M (arb deals)
Buerhle 49M
Dickey 41M
Edwin 37M

In a span of 4 years AA spent that. Added well over 400M in guaranteed in a span of 3 years on just those deals.

Until 2 years ago the biggest contract in Cleveland was 57M on Hafner (lowest in the MLB at the time) and it was beat by Edwin's 65M guaranteed (2nd lowest to the Pirates) in 2016.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-team-largest-contract.html

Biggest contracts Shapiro gave out were;

Hafner 57M
Kipnis 52M
Westbrook 33M

Swisher 56M - Antonetti was the Gm
Bourn 48M - Antonetti was the Gm

Shapiro as GM of Cleveland: 538M over 9 years
Anthopoulos as GM of the Jays: 612M over 6 season
Shapiro as Gm of the Jays: 573M over 4 years (if you include our 2019 Payroll)

AA had more money in 6 years as GM of the Jays than Shapiro had in his 9 years as GM in Cleveland. When opening day hits Shapiro will have had higher payrolls in 4 years as the Jays GM than he did in 9 years as the Cleveland GM.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/cleveland-indians-2/

[ratul]

Nonsense - Shapiro is a proven loser who destroys fan bases and get away with it because he was in moneyball. He had 4 winning seasons out of 15 in Cleveland. He destroyed the cleveland fan base with his continual commiditization of players and pretty much had a bottom third farm system while in Cleveland.
http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/cle/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

Double A is a proven winner. Toronto, LA, Atlanta. All he does is continue to find ways to win.
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

It's also crazy that people give Shapiro a pass for this 'rebuild' when double A did the same. He had to trade Vernon and that ungodly contract, trade Doc and then also rebuild our AWFUL farm system.

Shapiro needs to be fired. Yesterday.

https://jaysjournal.com/2019/01/20/blue-jays-worst-trades-in-franchise-history/

4 of 8 were from Anthopoulos. One was Anthopoulos trading with Shapiro where Shapiro made out like a bandit.

Shapiro was great at trading and developing prospects - he had no other choice because he had no money.

AA signed Bautista and Edwin to great deals. The rest of the major money he took on were neutral or horrid. His trades were ok and his drafting was great in the first 3 seasons but horrid in the last. He got to success in 2015 because of his payrolls after it covered up some of his big mistakes.

Anthopoulos was a good GM, he did well for the Jays. But his risks were risks that didnt pay off and when they failed he could try again because he had a payroll to allow him to do that. He had more room for error. He has money at his disposal to sign Bautista to the 2nd biggest extension in Jays history, he had money to his disposal to hand out the biggest free agent deal in Jays history to Martin, he had money at his disposal to sign Edwin to a 37M dollar deal after 4 good months. Josh Donaldson got an MLB record in arbitration at the time with the jays at 23M. AA could have afforded to make Romero's 30M go away. Money at his disposal to take on Reyes, Johnson, Buerhle, and Dickey all in one off-season to go with Melky.

Tulo 98M
Reyes 92M
Martin 82M
Bautista 78M
Donaldson 51M (arb deals)
Buerhle 49M
Dickey 41M
Edwin 37M

In a span of 4 years AA spent that. Added well over 400M in guaranteed in a span of 3 years on just those deals.

Until 2 years ago the biggest contract in Cleveland was 57M on Hafner (lowest in the MLB at the time) and it was beat by Edwin's 65M guaranteed (2nd lowest to the Pirates) in 2016.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-team-largest-contract.html

Biggest contracts Shapiro gave out were;

Hafner 57M
Kipnis 52M
Westbrook 33M

Swisher 56M - Antonetti was the Gm
Bourn 48M - Antonetti was the Gm

Shapiro as GM of Cleveland: 538M over 9 years
Anthopoulos as GM of the Jays: 612M over 6 season
Shapiro as Gm of the Jays: 573M over 4 years (if you include our 2019 Payroll)

AA had more money in 6 years as GM of the Jays than Shapiro had in his 9 years as GM in Cleveland. When opening day hits Shapiro will have had higher payrolls in 4 years as the Jays GM than he did in 9 years as the Cleveland GM.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/cleveland-indians-2/

Sorry, again, if you are saying Shapiro is 'good' because he had no money, where's the beef? Shapiro is a below average to terrible drafter, barely won (4/15 winning seasons) and drove attendance into the ground. At least with Billy Beane who had similar financial constraints, he wins from time to time. Also, if Shapiro wasn't so bad at creating chemistry and fan support with his constant arbitrary trades, maybe attendance would have been better in Cleveland which would have helped payroll?

Are you also suggesting that double A was bad at his job or had bad trades? He might have made some bad trades but then he made some effing awesome ones (Donaldson). To cherry-pick ancillary trades to make a sweeping conclusion is foolhardy.


Or put another way, what baseball moves give you confidence in Mark in terms of winning at the major league level? And frankly, shouldn't we have something to show for after three years of this moron other than waiting for Vladdy?

[ratul]

I have no idea where you're getting that Cleveland had a consistently awful farm system. Alongside the Astros, no current good team is as heavily reliant on homegrown talent as the Indians: about 80% of their fWAR in 2018 came from players who'd never donned a MLB jersey other than Cleveland's, and the vast majority of those players were brought in under Shapiro (and that doesn't include the likes of Trevor Bauer or Yan Gomes, who had cups of coffee with other teams but were still prospects when acquired).


Also, this thing about players being commodities is bizarre. Shapiro traded veterans because Cleveland had financial restrictions that meant that they were unlikely to win bidding wars, and thus had to be traded. You might recognize this as precisely what AA did with some of our veterans, and what every other smaller-market team has done at times. But Shapiro did it really, really well; whatever criticism you have of his drafting, no team in baseball got more in terms of net value from their trades of vets than did Cleveland under his watch.

Check the stats - Cleveland has consistently had a bottom half farm system during Shapiro's tenure.

My commodity comment is reflected in our team - who is our second baseman when Travis is hurt? Can an average fan name three players on the team? And Cleveland is not a 'small' market - it 'became' small(er) under Shapiro's tenure. The indians have been around as long as the red sox - but if you drive a team into the ground with unrecognizable players, your budget falls apart. And, again, using the excuse of a low budget only hides the fact that he was terrible at his job. He only had a winning record in 4 out of 15 seasons - is there a GM who has done worse who is still in the game? Seriously.

[Schad]

Sorry, again, if you are saying Shapiro is 'good' because he had no money, where's the beef? Shapiro is a below average to terrible drafter, barely won (4/15 winning seasons) and drove attendance into the ground. At least with Billy Beane who had similar financial constraints, he wins from time to time. Also, if Shapiro wasn't so bad at creating chemistry and fan support with his constant arbitrary trades, maybe attendance would have been better in Cleveland which would have helped payroll?

What in the everloving **** are you even talking about here. What are these arbitrary trades. As this is one of the pillars of your inane argument, please provide some supporting evidence.

Are you also suggesting that double A was bad at his job or had bad trades? He might have made some bad trades but then he made some effing awesome ones (Donaldson). To cherry-pick ancillary trades to make a sweeping conclusion is foolhardy.

He made one effing awesome one. And it was indeed effing awesome! Great trade, deserves a tonne of credit. He also traded (in combination) Noah Syndergaard, Travis D'Arnaud, Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSclafani, Yuni Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick and Jeff Mathis for RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson's awful final MLB season, Jose Reyes' terrible contract, Emilio Bonaficio and John Buck. AA did a lot of things well; he did 'win now' trades very, very badly.

Or put another way, what baseball moves give you confidence in Mark in terms of winning at the major league level? And frankly, shouldn't we have something to show for after three years of this moron other than waiting for Vladdy?

Bo Bichette is one of the best prospects in baseball. In fact, he's more highly-rated than any prospect drafted during the entirety of AA's tenure with the Jays.

[Schad]

Check the stats - Cleveland has consistently had a bottom half farm system during Shapiro's tenure.

I did check the stats (there aren't actually stats for this, prospect rankings are pure opinion), but whatever, sparky. For the years where BA's farm system rankings are publicly available, Cleveland was pretty consistently in the top half. They also produced a tonne of wins from farm-generated talent that wasn't terribly well-rated when they were prospects, like Kluber. Which, again, resulted in them getting more production from their farm system than almost any other team in baseball, which is a pretty good measure of whether your farm system is doing positive things.

My commodity comment is reflected in our team - who is our second baseman when Travis is hurt? Can an average fan name three players on the team? And Cleveland is not a 'small' market - it 'became' small(er) under Shapiro's tenure. The indians have been around as long as the red sox - but if you drive a team into the ground with unrecognizable players, your budget falls apart. And, again, using the excuse of a low budget only hides the fact that he was terrible at his job. He only had a winning record in 4 out of 15 seasons - is there a GM who has done worse who is still in the game? Seriously.

Your comment is reflected in the fact that we don't have a stellar backup second baseman? What on earth.

If a fan cannot name three players on the team, the issue isn't that they are an average fan. It's that they're a person who barely qualifies as a casual fan and shows up only when the team is good so that they can get seriously hammered in the fifth deck and throw things at left fielders. We have a lot of such fans; it's part of the reason our attendance is so tied to immediate results, and why building a team with a shelf life of 1-2 years hampered our ability to reinvigorate the fanbase long-term.

Cleveland became a small market when Larry Dolan bought the team in 2000. This is very well known; Dolan is notoriously cheap, and his cheapness drove a wedge between the club and its fans. That is not a decision made by the president or the GM or the guy who scrubs urinals.

[ratul]

Check the stats - Cleveland has consistently had a bottom half farm system during Shapiro's tenure.

I did check the stats (there aren't actually stats for this, prospect rankings are pure opinion), but whatever, sparky. For the years where BA's farm system rankings are publicly available, Cleveland was pretty consistently in the top half. They also produced a tonne of wins from farm-generated talent that wasn't terribly well-rated when they were prospects, like Kluber. Which, again, resulted in them getting more production from their farm system than almost any other team in baseball, which is a pretty good measure of whether your farm system is doing positive things.

My commodity comment is reflected in our team - who is our second baseman when Travis is hurt? Can an average fan name three players on the team? And Cleveland is not a 'small' market - it 'became' small(er) under Shapiro's tenure. The indians have been around as long as the red sox - but if you drive a team into the ground with unrecognizable players, your budget falls apart. And, again, using the excuse of a low budget only hides the fact that he was terrible at his job. He only had a winning record in 4 out of 15 seasons - is there a GM who has done worse who is still in the game? Seriously.

Your comment is reflected in the fact that we don't have a stellar backup second baseman? What on earth.

If a fan cannot name three players on the team, the issue isn't that they are an average fan. It's that they're a person who barely qualifies as a casual fan and shows up only when the team is good so that they can get seriously hammered in the fifth deck and throw things at left fielders. We have a lot of such fans; it's part of the reason our attendance is so tied to immediate results, and why building a team with a shelf life of 1-2 years hampered our ability to reinvigorate the fanbase long-term.

Cleveland became a small market when Larry Dolan bought the team in 2000. This is very well known; Dolan is notoriously cheap, and his cheapness drove a wedge between the club and its fans. That is not a decision made by the president or the GM or the guy who scrubs urinals.

Look pal, when we started this conversation, you quickly poo poo'd everything I said - about Shapiro and his master drafting, his adept winning and how he did more with less.

Here are the facts:
1. Shapiro, by some good accounts, is a terrible drafter
2. Shapiro is not a winner. 4 winning seasons out of 15 in Cleveland doesn't make for a billy beane penny-pinching savant
3. Shapiro KILLS fan attendance. It is hard to root for this Jays team unlike in 2015/16 - the buck stops with Shapiro. He presided over the worst attendance drop in the league in Cleveland and is also saying he expects attendance for the Jays to tank in 2019.

Rogers may deserve all this because my cable bill is 150 dollars a month but if Rogers doesn't want to sell the Skydome for 10 cents on the dollar again, it may behove them to get rid of this moron and the entire cluster-eff of a front office. Especially with Vlaady on the way - I really don't want to have his talents wasted by this giant pamplemousse.

Fire Mark Shapiro.

[dagger]

Check the stats - Cleveland has consistently had a bottom half farm system during Shapiro's tenure.

I did check the stats (there aren't actually stats for this, prospect rankings are pure opinion), but whatever, sparky. For the years where BA's farm system rankings are publicly available, Cleveland was pretty consistently in the top half. They also produced a tonne of wins from farm-generated talent that wasn't terribly well-rated when they were prospects, like Kluber. Which, again, resulted in them getting more production from their farm system than almost any other team in baseball, which is a pretty good measure of whether your farm system is doing positive things.

My commodity comment is reflected in our team - who is our second baseman when Travis is hurt? Can an average fan name three players on the team? And Cleveland is not a 'small' market - it 'became' small(er) under Shapiro's tenure. The indians have been around as long as the red sox - but if you drive a team into the ground with unrecognizable players, your budget falls apart. And, again, using the excuse of a low budget only hides the fact that he was terrible at his job. He only had a winning record in 4 out of 15 seasons - is there a GM who has done worse who is still in the game? Seriously.

Your comment is reflected in the fact that we don't have a stellar backup second baseman? What on earth.

If a fan cannot name three players on the team, the issue isn't that they are an average fan. It's that they're a person who barely qualifies as a casual fan and shows up only when the team is good so that they can get seriously hammered in the fifth deck and throw things at left fielders. We have a lot of such fans; it's part of the reason our attendance is so tied to immediate results, and why building a team with a shelf life of 1-2 years hampered our ability to reinvigorate the fanbase long-term.

Cleveland became a small market when Larry Dolan bought the team in 2000. This is very well known; Dolan is notoriously cheap, and his cheapness drove a wedge between the club and its fans. That is not a decision made by the president or the GM or the guy who scrubs urinals.

Look pal, when we started this conversation, you quickly poo poo'd everything I said - about Shapiro and his master drafting, his adept winning and how he did more with less.

Here are the facts:
1. Shapiro, by some good accounts, is a terrible drafter
2. Shapiro is not a winner. 4 winning seasons out of 15 in Cleveland doesn't make for a billy beane penny-pinching savant
3. Shapiro KILLS fan attendance. It is hard to root for this Jays team unlike in 2015/16 - the buck stops with Shapiro. He presided over the worst attendance drop in the league in Cleveland and is also saying he expects attendance for the Jays to tank in 2019.

Rogers may deserve all this because my cable bill is 150 dollars a month but if Rogers doesn't want to sell the Skydome for 10 cents on the dollar again, it may behove them to get rid of this moron and the entire cluster-eff of a front office. Especially with Vlaady on the way - I really don't want to have his talents wasted by this giant pamplemousse.

Fire Mark Shapiro.

MLB Pipeline is in the process of releasing its top farm system ratings, and they have already put the Jays in the best one-third, as are most prospect ratings sites. In all likelihood, they are top 5 or even top 3. The top 10 will be ranked during the course of next week. Aside from Vladimir Guerrero Jr who was signed during AA's tenure, almost all of the Jays top prospects were drafted or signed by the current management. I'm talking about the ones with the highest ceilings: Pearson, Pardhino, Groshans, Bichette, Biggio, Smith, etc. Most of AA's draftees - guys who should be at the major league level or knocking on the door - are either stalling out or offered limited upside. Jansen and Borucki look to be the best of them. Alford and Tellez are question marks, Sean Reid Foley is a maybe in some role. Also, the current management has signed Gurriel Jr and Teoscar Hernandez. In fact, although we are only three drafts and international signing periods removed from the AA era, I'd say 90% of any Jays' Top 30 prospect list out there are players drafted, signed, or acquired via trade by the current management.

So we have a top farm system stocked almost entirely with players brought in by the current management.

But there is another issue: player development. AA traded a lot of prospects, but during his time the Jays brought few prospects to the major league level who went to enjoy any sustained success. This management group has put a major emphasis on development. It's early days, but there is a high likelihood they will exceed AA's limited number of successful promotions to the MLB level. Part of it will come from simply not trading so many good prospects for veterans. The team has focussed on drafting and signing a lot of multi-tool infielders, some of whom may gravitate to the outfield, giving the Jays a lot of versatility and positional depth. That same roster versatility should come in handy when it is time to trade excess prospect capital for veterans to put the team into true contention.

BTW, it doesn't automatically follow that bad teams have great farm systems because they have traded off their best veterans to retool. While the Jays are a top 5 farm system now by most raters, the Orioles are are not. Yes, with the first overall pick in June Baltimore can add a high ceiling prospect, but even after the Machado trade brought in some nice prospect capital last summer, it was not enough to put the Orioles into a top 10 slot.

[BigLeagueChew]

Gotta love impressions that are contradicted by reality or rational argument.

[-MetA4-]

This has to be one of the most embarrassingly bad takes on this site in years. I mean, this has to be troll at this point, right? It's like a car crash, I can't even explain why I keep coming back into this thread.

WTH does Shapiro's drafting history have to do with anything? He's the freaking PRESIDENT of the team. He essentially has virtually ZERO impact on who the team drafts, in any round. As in: bordering so close to NONE that it may as well be none. To argue otherwise would be an admission to having absolutely no knowledge on the operational structure of a baseball front office, which, this guy has already publicly admitted to with all of his other points he's trying to make. I feel like an idiot for even bothering to give serious responses.

I mean, can we get a running table on what we're debating here? So far we've got Mark Shapiro going from spending his days formulating the long term business strategy of the organization to hopping on the phone to dictate who the team drafts with the 567th pick in the draft (LOL), we've got "Double A" carrying the Braves into the playoffs on his back with his roster of players assembled almost entirely by the guy in charge before him, we've got "Double A" doing the same thing in Los Angeles wherein his position was no greater than our equivalent of Tony LaCava's or Ben Cherington's...again with a roster that he had quantifiably no role in assembling, what else did I miss?

[ratul]

This has to be one of the most embarrassingly bad takes on this site in years. I mean, this has to be troll at this point, right? It's like a car crash, I can't even explain why I keep coming back into this thread.

WTH does Shapiro's drafting history have to do with anything? He's the freaking PRESIDENT of the team. He essentially has virtually ZERO impact on who the team drafts, in any round. As in: bordering so close to NONE that it may as well be none. To argue otherwise would be an admission to having absolutely no knowledge on the operational structure of a baseball front office, which, this guy has already publicly admitted to with all of his other points he's trying to make. I feel like an idiot for even bothering to give serious responses.

I mean, can we get a running table on what we're debating here? So far we've got Mark Shapiro going from spending his days formulating the long term business strategy of the organization to hopping on the phone to dictate who the team drafts with the 567th pick in the draft (LOL), we've got "Double A" carrying the Braves into the playoffs on his back with his roster of players assembled almost entirely by the guy in charge before him, we've got "Double A" doing the same thing in Los Angeles wherein his position was no greater than our equivalent of Tony LaCava's or Ben Cherington's...again with a roster that he had quantifiably no role in assembling, what else did I miss?

Um, what? Shapiro hired his front office and has final say on baseball matters. This isn't a Paul Beeston role. Shapiro was general manager for 15 years prior to joining the jays. It would be like saying that Theo Epstein doesn't have the say on baseball matters because he is PRESIDENT of the Cubs.

[ratul]

I did check the stats (there aren't actually stats for this, prospect rankings are pure opinion), but whatever, sparky. For the years where BA's farm system rankings are publicly available, Cleveland was pretty consistently in the top half. They also produced a tonne of wins from farm-generated talent that wasn't terribly well-rated when they were prospects, like Kluber. Which, again, resulted in them getting more production from their farm system than almost any other team in baseball, which is a pretty good measure of whether your farm system is doing positive things.



Your comment is reflected in the fact that we don't have a stellar backup second baseman? What on earth.

If a fan cannot name three players on the team, the issue isn't that they are an average fan. It's that they're a person who barely qualifies as a casual fan and shows up only when the team is good so that they can get seriously hammered in the fifth deck and throw things at left fielders. We have a lot of such fans; it's part of the reason our attendance is so tied to immediate results, and why building a team with a shelf life of 1-2 years hampered our ability to reinvigorate the fanbase long-term.

Cleveland became a small market when Larry Dolan bought the team in 2000. This is very well known; Dolan is notoriously cheap, and his cheapness drove a wedge between the club and its fans. That is not a decision made by the president or the GM or the guy who scrubs urinals.

Look pal, when we started this conversation, you quickly poo poo'd everything I said - about Shapiro and his master drafting, his adept winning and how he did more with less.

Here are the facts:
1. Shapiro, by some good accounts, is a terrible drafter
2. Shapiro is not a winner. 4 winning seasons out of 15 in Cleveland doesn't make for a billy beane penny-pinching savant
3. Shapiro KILLS fan attendance. It is hard to root for this Jays team unlike in 2015/16 - the buck stops with Shapiro. He presided over the worst attendance drop in the league in Cleveland and is also saying he expects attendance for the Jays to tank in 2019.

Rogers may deserve all this because my cable bill is 150 dollars a month but if Rogers doesn't want to sell the Skydome for 10 cents on the dollar again, it may behove them to get rid of this moron and the entire cluster-eff of a front office. Especially with Vlaady on the way - I really don't want to have his talents wasted by this giant pamplemousse.

Fire Mark Shapiro.

MLB Pipeline is in the process of releasing its top farm system ratings, and they have already put the Jays in the best one-third, as are most prospect ratings sites. In all likelihood, they are top 5 or even top 3. The top 10 will be ranked during the course of next week. Aside from Vladimir Guerrero Jr who was signed during AA's tenure, almost all of the Jays top prospects were drafted or signed by the current management. I'm talking about the ones with the highest ceilings: Pearson, Pardhino, Groshans, Bichette, Biggio, Smith, etc. Most of AA's draftees - guys who should be at the major league level or knocking on the door - are either stalling out or offered limited upside. Jansen and Borucki look to be the best of them. Alford and Tellez are question marks, Sean Reid Foley is a maybe in some role. Also, the current management has signed Gurriel Jr and Teoscar Hernandez. In fact, although we are only three drafts and international signing periods removed from the AA era, I'd say 90% of any Jays' Top 30 prospect list out there are players drafted, signed, or acquired via trade by the current management.

So we have a top farm system stocked almost entirely with players brought in by the current management.

But there is another issue: player development. AA traded a lot of prospects, but during his time the Jays brought few prospects to the major league level who went to enjoy any sustained success. This management group has put a major emphasis on development. It's early days, but there is a high likelihood they will exceed AA's limited number of successful promotions to the MLB level. Part of it will come from simply not trading so many good prospects for veterans. The team has focussed on drafting and signing a lot of multi-tool infielders, some of whom may gravitate to the outfield, giving the Jays a lot of versatility and positional depth. That same roster versatility should come in handy when it is time to trade excess prospect capital for veterans to put the team into true contention.

BTW, it doesn't automatically follow that bad teams have great farm systems because they have traded off their best veterans to retool. While the Jays are a top 5 farm system now by most raters, the Orioles are are not. Yes, with the first overall pick in June Baltimore can add a high ceiling prospect, but even after the Machado trade brought in some nice prospect capital last summer, it was not enough to put the Orioles into a top 10 slot.

Rather than speculating, I'll give you fact based answers. The Jays farm is ranked 9th this year and probably would be 20 without Vladdie. Your analysis on prospects is skewed for two reasons

1) Farm systems are skewed to the top players - Vladdie and Bo drive our farm right now.
2) 60% of the top five prospects were picked by double A. If you are banking on our 28th best prospect playing single A in outer Buffalo who will kill it for us in 2021, it may be just be too optimistic.

Your latter point isn't supported by facts. Cleveland consistently had a bad farm system and our farm now is driven by double A's work. And Double A drafted and/or brought up Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez, Vladdie Junior and Pillar. Oh yeah, and got rid of Vernon and made the ALCS two years in a row with 66% of his seasons with a winning record with the jays.

Shapiro's insistence on patience despite no demonstrable track record of winning or drafting and a record of destroying attendance is just setting up for a 2022 sale of the Rogers centre to Shopify for 10 mn dollars in deferred stock.

[Fairview4Life]

I refuse to believe you are actually reading the replies to you.

At least now we know who is getting the first board ban when we need to spark a winning streak or I guess a losing streak this season.

[ratul]

I refuse to believe you are actually reading the replies to you.

At least now we know who is getting the first board ban when we need to spark a winning streak or I guess a losing streak this season.

I have been reading them quite closely - and happy to take the other side as well. I just think Mark Shapiro is trash and needs to be fired - yesterday. That's it.

[dagger]

1) Farm systems are skewed to the top players - Vladdie and Bo drive our farm right now.
2) 60% of the top five prospects were picked by double A. If you are banking on our 28th best prospect playing single A in outer Buffalo who will kill it for us in 2021, it may be just be too optimistic.

The Jays were ninth in MLB pipeline last May. They will be top 5 when the updated rankings come out this week. It's true that last May you could say that 60% of our five of rated prospects were signed or drafted by AA, but unless Alford retains the #5 position, that won't be the case next week. Of course, Jansen is still on that list but Gurriel and Hernandez, both signed/acquired by the current adminstration, were prospects promoted already and not on the list. Comparing apples to apples, Gurriel would be somewhere in the top half of that half of that list.

And of the rest on that list, prospects 6-30 were drafted, signed or acquired by the current administration, save for #21 (Jonathan Davis) and #29 (Rowdy Tellez)

So we're not exactly depending on #28 to make it to the majors by 2021.

[Fairview4Life]

1) Farm systems are skewed to the top players - Vladdie and Bo drive our farm right now.
2) 60% of the top five prospects were picked by double A. If you are banking on our 28th best prospect playing single A in outer Buffalo who will kill it for us in 2021, it may be just be too optimistic.

The Jays were ninth in MLB pipeline last May. They will be top 5 when the updated rankings come out this week. It's true that last May you could say that 60% of our five of rated prospects were signed or drafted by AA, but unless Alford retains the #5 position, that won't be the case next week. Of course, Jansen is still on that list but Gurriel and Hernandez, both signed/acquired by the current adminstration, were prospects promoted already and not on the list. Comparing apples to apples, Gurriel would be somewhere in the top half of that half of that list.

And of the rest on that list, prospects 6-30 were drafted, signed or acquired by the current administration, save for #21 (Jonathan Davis) and #29 (Rowdy Tellez)

So we're not exactly depending on #28 to make it to the majors by 2021.

But you see, if I just keep repeating that Shapiro needs to be fired yesterday, that means I am as great as quadruple AAAAAAAA.

[SharoneWright]

The only thing I will say (and I'm very much against what AA did and still have MUCH patience for Shatkins..) is that while AA mortgaged everything a few years ago and put us in this hole,,, that I'm not 100% sure the current regime has swapped old assets for full value on the trade market...

Shapiro didn't sign Osuna, but he (they) did trade him for Hector Perez..
Shapiro didn't trade for Donaldson, but he did trade him for Merryweather..
Shapiro did trade Happ for McKinney...
Shapiro did trade post-season-god Pearce for Espinal...

At this stage, Shats had better believe Diaz for Thornton is a BIG win!! LOL (maybe his best deal??)

Seriously, I blame AA for most everything,, and I mostly agree with our current strategy, BUT I'm not 100% sold that we have even burnt it down maximally.... (the whole JD fiasco notwithstanding). Our farm might be "top 4" due to depth/selling a train of mlb'ers,, but I really wish Shatkins could have parlayed our old veterans into a few prospects with higher upside than Forrest Wall (Ronny Brito FTW!). I haven't seen any genius moves or "out front" thinking for a long while... We haven't "cashed in" a thing. And of course most of our predicament has to do with how AA left things,, but darn it,, can we get at least a little creative?? Management's remuneration is substantial. Lets go.

(IFA's have been better than par... so, not mad at all,,, but I just cant say these middling trades {and I'm aware of all the mitigating actors} will translate anywhere other than farm system rankings....)

[ratul]

1) Farm systems are skewed to the top players - Vladdie and Bo drive our farm right now.
2) 60% of the top five prospects were picked by double A. If you are banking on our 28th best prospect playing single A in outer Buffalo who will kill it for us in 2021, it may be just be too optimistic.

The Jays were ninth in MLB pipeline last May. They will be top 5 when the updated rankings come out this week. It's true that last May you could say that 60% of our five of rated prospects were signed or drafted by AA, but unless Alford retains the #5 position, that won't be the case next week. Of course, Jansen is still on that list but Gurriel and Hernandez, both signed/acquired by the current adminstration, were prospects promoted already and not on the list. Comparing apples to apples, Gurriel would be somewhere in the top half of that half of that list.

And of the rest on that list, prospects 6-30 were drafted, signed or acquired by the current administration, save for #21 (Jonathan Davis) and #29 (Rowdy Tellez)

So we're not exactly depending on #28 to make it to the majors by 2021.

I mean, that's just a bit speculative no? We have a top nine farm team and even if we are five, 40-60% of the top guys are from the previous administration. Moreover, if the Jays don't have vlaady who is considered a 'generational' player, how strong is our farm?

Moreover, at some point, wouldn't 'all' prospects come from the current administration? The question is quality - and riding hopes on a bunch of guys playing single A doesn't inspire confidence, particularly when a) draft talent is skewed to the top like it is in the NBA and b) Shapiro hasn't shown from his cleveland days he is good at drafting - you have cited gurriel and hernandez who are good players but are atrocious defensively.

Shapiro consisently underrates defense. And this is the key reason why he stinks. Our best defensive players (Smoak, Martin, Pillar) were AA signings. All the rest of these players were frankly below average. https://sabr.org/sdi/2018-final

Double A strongly cared about defense. It the reason why Tulo was such an upgrade from Reyes - Tulo, when he played, shored up our D which frankly is how teams win - with solid defense.

[Schad]

Number of Double AAAAAAAAAAaaaaa's teams that posted a positive defensive runs above average: 0. Our year-to-year rankings under him: 23rd, 28th, 25th, 27th, 23rd, 19th.

If he strongly cared about defense, he had a strange way of showing it, given that he assembled a team that (over the totality of his tenure) was the 4th-best offensive team in baseball, and the 3rd-worst defensive team.