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The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#721 » by I_Like_Dirt » Wed Aug 7, 2019 5:05 pm

Skin Blues wrote:It's mostly people complaining that we didn't cash in on our veterans. There were a couple other pitchers that we dealt away though, like Boyd, DeSclafani, in addition to Syndergaard. And d'Arnaud, while somewhat of a disappointment, has still put up 10+ WAR since we traded him. I was in favour of going for it in 2015/2016 though because those two years were amazing as a Jays fan. But it did come at a pretty big cost which is why we're going through 3+ years of being a bad team. But again - that's worth it. I'm more interested in seeing the ALCS twice than by being a top rated farm system for 3 extra years.


That's pretty much it. When you're ready to go for it, it makes sense to go for it. It just takes a certain willingness to pay the price on the other end for the rebuild.

The one part that AA doesn't actually get criticized for that he probably should is that he actually didn't actually draft very well at all. He exploited loopholes to get more draft picks and had exciting drafts but his overall draft record wasn't so hot.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#722 » by Schad » Wed Aug 7, 2019 7:10 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
fbalmeida wrote:Honest questions: Much is often said about how Alex Anthopoulos recklessly dismantled the farm system for an unsuccessful title run, but besides Noah Syndergaard, which of these prospects has made a significant impact in the majors?

Who exactly are these baseballing luminaries that we coughed up for the Derek Fishers of the day?

It's mostly people complaining that we didn't cash in on our veterans. There were a couple other pitchers that we dealt away though, like Boyd, DeSclafani, in addition to Syndergaard. And d'Arnaud, while somewhat of a disappointment, has still put up 10+ WAR since we traded him. I was in favour of going for it in 2015/2016 though because those two years were amazing as a Jays fan. But it did come at a pretty big cost which is why we're going through 3+ years of being a bad team. But again - that's worth it. I'm more interested in seeing the ALCS twice than by being a top rated farm system for 3 extra years.


Pretty much this. I've been saying since 2016 that it was worth it, but it was always going to result in a significant period where we were pretty awful. This is that period, and it'd have been the same if AA was still here.

On the prospects, Syndergaard/Boyd/Musgrove/DeSclafani/Norris have been good for 12 fWAR this season. They'd be a top-five rotation. Doesn't mean that getting to the ALCS in consecutive years wasn't worth it, but we absolutely paid a price to do so.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#723 » by Steelo Green » Wed Aug 7, 2019 7:22 pm

Schad wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
fbalmeida wrote:Honest questions: Much is often said about how Alex Anthopoulos recklessly dismantled the farm system for an unsuccessful title run, but besides Noah Syndergaard, which of these prospects has made a significant impact in the majors?

Who exactly are these baseballing luminaries that we coughed up for the Derek Fishers of the day?

It's mostly people complaining that we didn't cash in on our veterans. There were a couple other pitchers that we dealt away though, like Boyd, DeSclafani, in addition to Syndergaard. And d'Arnaud, while somewhat of a disappointment, has still put up 10+ WAR since we traded him. I was in favour of going for it in 2015/2016 though because those two years were amazing as a Jays fan. But it did come at a pretty big cost which is why we're going through 3+ years of being a bad team. But again - that's worth it. I'm more interested in seeing the ALCS twice than by being a top rated farm system for 3 extra years.


Pretty much this. I've been saying since 2016 that it was worth it, but it was always going to result in a significant period where we were pretty awful. This is that period, and it'd have been the same if AA was still here.

On the prospects, Syndergaard/Boyd/Musgrove/DeSclafani/Norris have been good for 12 fWAR this season. They'd be a top-five rotation. Doesn't mean that getting to the ALCS in consecutive years wasn't worth it, but we absolutely paid a price to do so.

To be fair, we had a run and I feel are in better shape than we were in any of the years prior to the Bautista Jays, in part being due to the AL East, and in part to management continually striking out on producing position players for 20 years.

Shatkins have their flaws, but they can develop position players really well.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#724 » by Schad » Wed Aug 7, 2019 7:23 pm

We're actually in great shape, all things considered. We have a very good collection of young talent at the major league level, and will have more on the way. But it will take a minute to translate that into actual success.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#725 » by fbalmeida » Wed Aug 7, 2019 7:38 pm

Thanks for your answers guys. Interesting perspectives all around.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#726 » by polo007 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 10:26 am

Atkins may be a year or two early with Astros comparison - TSN.ca

TORONTO - After Ross Atkins appeared on TSN 1050’s OverDrive and compared the 2019 Toronto Blue Jays to the 2014 Houston Astros, a club on the verge of being a wild-card team the following season, I was asked Wednesday morning on First Up if the GM's assessment was realistic.

My answer was this: The Astros have always been one of the templates the current Jays regime has been trying to emulate, but I’d have to investigate the reasons for Houston’s 16-win jump – from 70 in 2014 to 86 and a postseason berth in 2015 – and what they did that off-season.

The next 800 words are the results of that high-level investigation.

Could the young stars that have arrived in Toronto this year propel the Jays to the seventh-best offence in baseball next year?

Totally plausible.

Will the rotation be able to match the Astros’ 3.71 ERA (eighth in baseball) and the 3.27 bullpen ERA?

With a 5.24 rotation ERA (25th in baseball) and a 4.14 bullpen ERA through 116 games so far this season, the former at least feels like a huge stretch when you look at the pieces currently in place.

A bullpen can be revamped and rebuilt each and every winter with the right moves, but unless Atkins has a winter trade or free-agent signing up his sleeve that pops out a Cy Young contender – the final step of the Astros’ rebuild was using farm system surplus to acquire top-of-the-rotation arms in Justin Verlander and current free-agent-to-be Gerrit Cole to help put them over the top – he may be a year or two early on the Astros comparison.

But the similarities of the rebuilds are there on many levels in the early stages, and that should provide hope.

https://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-5/Ross-Atkins-with-Scott-MacArthur-and-Kevin-Barker-bc-20190806-Interview.mp3

The Blue Jays GM discusses the performances of his young core thus far this season, when he would consider making a significant acquisition to aid in his club's quest to become contenders, the role for Derek Fisher, the price he paid for the outfielder, managing Trent Thornton's workload, the concern with Ryan Borucki's health, the team expanding the safety netting in 2020, and his "42 years of control" statement.

Ross Atkins says: "I wish our fans can see the confidence & cohesiveness in our clubhouse."
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#727 » by polo007 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 10:33 am

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#728 » by ratul » Thu Aug 8, 2019 11:54 am

Lol, wow - they didn't want to draft Bichette! Lol - this rebuild is TRASH. FIRE THESE GUYS please
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#729 » by BigLeagueChew » Thu Aug 8, 2019 3:17 pm

Emotionally difficult time for the bandwagoners.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#730 » by Adrian_05 » Thu Aug 8, 2019 3:36 pm

I would say its a good thing that Shapiro and Atkins listen to their scouts.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#731 » by I_Like_Dirt » Thu Aug 8, 2019 4:12 pm

Adrian_05 wrote:I would say its a good thing that Shapiro and Atkins listen to their scouts.


Absolutely. I would suggest that GMs and Presidents aren't supposed to want to draft anyone unless they're involved in the scouting process. They're supposed to listen to their scouts and make as informed decisions as possible, which they clearly did here.

I'd also suggest that Keith Law figuring out a way to twist reality as best he can in order to take yet another shot at the Blue Jays is entirely predictable. He could basically be replaced by a bot at this point.

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#732 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 2:34 am

Adrian_05 wrote:I would say its a good thing that Shapiro and Atkins listen to their scouts.


Exactly, and Bichette was a really divisive prospect. He had -- and still kinda has -- a pretty janky-looking high-effort swing with a lot happening. A lot of scouts thought that he'd be exposed as a professional, as his brother had been, which is why he was available at 66th overall despite being a middle infield prospect who'd done nothing but hit on the travel circuit. Top-level execs see players far less than the crosscheckers and scouting director, because they have other **** to do, and Bichette's best qualities -- his bat control, his hand-eye, and the more readily apparent batspeed -- would only really jump out in repeat viewings.

So they probably didn't like the swing mechanics, but they trusted the scouts who believed in the bat. That's the way it ought to work, frankly; especially after the first round, your scouting director/their underlings are generally going to be better-equipped to make those decisions. And I'd bet there were a bunch of scouts in other war-rooms that advocated for BIchette and got overruled, or he wouldn't have been available in that spot.


The Rays, one of the best draft-and-development teams in the league, had the 53rd pick. Took Ryan Boldt. Boldt isn't currently in their top 30.

The Astros, probably the best draft-and-development team in the league, had the 61st pick. Took Ronnie Dawson. Dawson's currently their 17th-best prospect.

We had the 66th pick and got Bichette. It's a bit comical to suggest that it's a fireable offense to have made the right pick when the best in the business fluffed their lines, because we didn't immediately reach the conclusion that we should draft him.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#733 » by WuTang_OG » Fri Aug 9, 2019 2:56 am

I think both shapiro and atkins got the memo about their PR blunders the last cpl years and now have been trying to spin a positive narrative for once in their tenure.

They should have been harping on building a young and exciting team after 16’ along with starting their rebuild then. Could have maximized their value on the AA guys.

All of 17’ and 18’ were waste years and the rebuild should have happend in the offseason after 16’ along with their PR of rebuilding this team through the draft.

Jays have been pretty stale on and off the field for 2.5 years.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#734 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 3:15 am

I don't disagree that the rebuild should have started earlier, but it's worth noting how incredibly unpopular that would have been. It definitely wasn't the majority opinion around here, and I'd imagine would have been viewed even more dimly among the more casual portions of the fanbase. Regrettably, the tail wags the dog with Rogers in charge, and there were too many dollars available post-'16 for them to turn down by rebuilding.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#735 » by Tanner » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:00 am

Look at attendance in 2017. No way they would have rebuilt until when they actually did, which was mid 2018. Rogers doesn’t make baseball decisions, they make business decisions. Two ALCS appearances followed by “we are rolling in dough but need to strip it all away and lose revenue” is not something a business is going to take seriously, regardless of how respected Shapiro is.

A more logical point would be the Jays should have taken 2017-18 more seriously. Saying they should have tanked after 2016 is ridiculous. No chance that was ever going to happen.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#736 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:26 am

We had a payroll of $163m in 2017, and $162m in 2018. We missed the playoffs by 9 games in 2017, and by 24 in 2018. As it's extremely unlikely that Rogers would have forked over another $40m+ in 2017, I'm pretty dubious that we could have taken it more seriously in a fashion that wouldn't have further compromised our long-term aims, and in 2018 we were so far from competitiveness that it really was something of a non-starter.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#737 » by Wo1verine » Fri Aug 9, 2019 3:50 pm

Schad wrote:We're actually in great shape, all things considered. We have a very good collection of young talent at the major league level, and will have more on the way. But it will take a minute to translate that into actual success.

The key is how long?

I think it would be unacceptable to have another off-season signing comparable players like Hudson, Sogard , Phelps etc


We are going to hit so we just need to keep on adding impact arms from every avenue over these next couple years.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#738 » by dagger » Fri Aug 9, 2019 3:51 pm

ratul wrote:Lol, wow - they didn't want to draft Bichette! Lol - this rebuild is TRASH. FIRE THESE GUYS please


They did draft him. So it's irrelevant if they had to be talked into it (in which case they were open minded) or if they simply deferred to their scouting director (which good organizations do).

If you want to look at things another way, let's look at first and second round picks for the current administration for 2016-2019 vs first and second round picks for the previous administration from 2010-2015. This is a handicap race because compensation for losing free agents was much greater for the former administration than the current administration. The rules today give only some teams losing the biggest free agent a meaningful bit of compensation.

Here are your Anthopoulos firsts

2010 Deck McGuire
2010 Aaron Sanchez
2010 Noah Syndergaard
2010 Asher Wojciechowski
2011 Tyler Beede*
2011 Jacob Anderson
2011 Joe Musgrove
2011 Dwight Smith Jr.
2011 Kevin Comer
2012 Marcus Stroman
2012 Matt Smoral
2012 Mitch Nay
2012 Tyler Gonzales
2013 Phil Bickford*
2014 Jeff Hoffman
2014 Max Pentecost
2015 Jon Harris

Anthopoulus got 12 supplemental or comp picks for losing free agents, most of whom were marginal value losses, and for failing to sign first round picks Tyler Beebe and Phil Bickford. Imagine getting a first round pick for losing Frankie Francisco in free agency!

Of the 17 regular or special first round picks above - some of which were slotted into the 40s and 50s by the time all free agent losses around the league were compensated for with comp round picks - you could say that two, Stroman and Sanchez, made an impact playing for the Jays, and Syndergaard in particular brought us R.A Dickey. A few others are making varying contributions for other teams, but never made it to the majors with Toronto on a sustained basis (think Dwight Smith Jr.)

For the same period, second rounders were

2010 Griffin Murphy
2010 Kellen Sweeney
2010 Justin Nicolino
2011 Daniel Norris
2011 Jeremy Gabryszwski
2012 Chase de Jong
2013 Clinton Hollon
2014 Sean Reid Foley
2015 Brady Singer

Now, it's not as if there weren't some other players in lower rounds who have done alright in the majors (like Matt Boyd and Kendall Graveman) and there a couple of guys with outside chances to success still in the system, their development delayed by injuries (think Justin Maese and Patrick Murphy). And some of those picks were part of the 2015 trades that brought David Price and Troy Tulowitski. You can even argue that using Chase de Jong to buy the team out of the maximum penalty created by signing Vlad Guerrero Jr above the legal spend limit helped the team re-enter the July 2 signing period for internationals sooner.

Still, it's rather remarkable that all of that drafting never yielded a) a major league position player and b) was only good enough to be converted into a couple of post-prime veterans in Price and Tulo, the former a pending free agent they wouldn't be able to re-sign and the latter a horribly expensive, modest upgrade on Jose Reyes for one and a half seasons before, like Lot's wife, turning into a pillar of salt.

In fact, the only drafted position player to make it through the system during AA's time was Kevin Pillar, and if you think it something to criticize that Bo Bichette wasn't the apple of Russ Atkins' eye, well don't give any credit to AA for a 35th round pick making it, because it's highly doubtful AA was in the room or gave a rat's ass about the 35th round pick. The success of that pick is on the scout who recommended Pillar, and no one else.

Now let's look at the current regime's first and second round picks. Again, their only comp pick was in 2017 for losing EE in free agency. And the addition of the competitive balance round has meant second round picks - which were delayed in the AA era because of the liberal comp picks awarded for losing free agents - are similarly deferred, only in the case of competitive balance picks, this is an area where the supposedly mid-market Jays cannot quality or benefit from unless they trade for such a pick.

So this is the lineup of Shatkins firsts. And sure, it's earlier days for some of this group

2016 TJ Zeuch
2017 Logan Warmoth
2017 Nate Pearson
2018 Jordan Groshans
2019 Alek Manoah

Second rounders
2016 JB Woodman (Comp)
2016 Bo Bichette
2017 Hagen Danner
2018 Griffin Conine
2019 Kendall Williams

Of these picks, only Warmoth looks like a failure of the first round and Woodman the second, but they moved off Woodman by trading him for Grichuk. Danner is a wildcard - hits for power but not for average, and as a catcher has declining value in an organization which has found a number of better catching prospects through the international market (Moreno, Kirk, Lopez). However, converting Danner to a pitcher was always an option, and we may see that happen next season. Everyone else on the above list is a live prospect, though Connine had better cut down on his whiffs and avoid another suspension. Of 10 picks through two rounds, the current administration has brought a potential all-star to the majors in Bichette, and has what some scouts consider the best pitching prospect in the majors in Pearson under careful development. There is a great deal of excitement about Groshans as potentially the guy who forces Vladdy to first base. The current top 30 prospect list - even minus Biggio, Vlad and Bo - is as good as any I can remember for an organization which hasn't often excelled in internal development. Yes, credit AA with trailers like Tellez and Alford if they actually get back to the majors and establish themselves - both are doing well right now at BUF and both are on the 40 man roster so we ought to see them with the Jays again next month. But the next wave of new faces, headed by Pearson and possibly Kay, Manoah and Woods Richardson (since pitchers can move through the system faster than position players and there are no bigger talents in their way), will be entirely of this administration's making.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#739 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:02 pm

Wo1verine wrote:The key is how long?

I think it would be unacceptable to have another off-season signing comparable players like Hudson, Sogard , Phelps etc


We are going to hit so we just need to keep on adding impact arms from every avenue over these next couple years.


2021, likely. We'll start building back up in the offseason, but it isn't going to happen overnight...if we try to buy a rotation in free agency in one fell swoop, it's likely going to end in tears.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#740 » by vaff87 » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:11 pm

Keith Law really is a clown, man. His pettiness is pathetic, but he crossed the line when he accused them of racism for absolutely no reason.
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