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The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#741 » by dagger » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:31 pm

gei wrote:
fbalmeida wrote:Honest questions: Much is often said about how Alex Anthopoulos recklessly dismantled the farm system for an unsuccessful title run, but besides Noah Syndergaard, which of these prospects has made a significant impact in the majors?

Seriously? Who says this?

As I mentioned earlier, AA gave us literally the only 2 years of baseball worth watching from the Jays in the last 26 years.


There is enough young talent in the system right now, to do the same thing, and for a similar short period of time. Or we could become like Houston or the Yankees - the standard we need to attain talent wise if we aspire to a World Championship - and actually be competitive for five or six seasons and hopefully more. This isn't the NBA where you need a top talent among your starting five to aspire to a title; we lucked into one of those, and got the title. In the AL East, there is no guarantee of a playoff spot let along being competitive for a pennant or World Championship with a 90 win team. AA did his deal with the devil, and let's not forget his years of good baseball followed 20 years of mediocrity. I don't consider trading two years of relative success for 20 more years of mediocrity a particularly good outcome. We all knew at the time of the deadline dealings in 2015 that he was opening a short term window. Maybe if Sanchez, Tulo and Donaldson had at least remained healthy, there might have been a way to extend the window for another season, but it just wasn't to be. When this team starts to be seriously competitive again, there is a strong likelihood that it will be a more sustainable proposition.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#742 » by Skin Blues » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:32 pm

vaff87 wrote:Keith Law really is a clown, man. His pettiness is pathetic, but he crossed the line when he accused them of racism for absolutely no reason.

To be fair to Keith Law, he lives in a Twitter sub-universe where calling people racist and sexist for just about anything is standard operating procedure. If you don't meet your quota of accusations and virtue signalling, you might get left out of the group.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#743 » by gei » Fri Aug 9, 2019 4:50 pm

dagger wrote:
gei wrote:
fbalmeida wrote:Honest questions: Much is often said about how Alex Anthopoulos recklessly dismantled the farm system for an unsuccessful title run, but besides Noah Syndergaard, which of these prospects has made a significant impact in the majors?

Seriously? Who says this?

As I mentioned earlier, AA gave us literally the only 2 years of baseball worth watching from the Jays in the last 26 years.


There is enough young talent in the system right now, to do the same thing, and for a similar short period of time. Or we could become like Houston or the Yankees - the standard we need to attain talent wise if we aspire to a World Championship - and actually be competitive for five or six seasons and hopefully more. This isn't the NBA where you need a top talent among your starting five to aspire to a title; we lucked into one of those, and got the title. In the AL East, there is no guarantee of a playoff spot let along being competitive for a pennant or World Championship with a 90 win team. AA did his deal with the devil, and let's not forget his years of good baseball followed 20 years of mediocrity. I don't consider trading two years of relative success for 20 more years of mediocrity a particularly good outcome. We all knew at the time of the deadline dealings in 2015 that he was opening a short term window. Maybe if Sanchez, Tulo and Donaldson had at least remained healthy, there might have been a way to extend the window for another season, but it just wasn't to be. When this team starts to be seriously competitive again, there is a strong likelihood that it will be a more sustainable proposition.


Umm... what? Houston and the Yankees compete consistently because they consistently sign big name free agents for big $$$ - it has very little to do with their farm system.

Prospects in most cases turn out to be average players. In the best case they turn out to be great players who have a few great years, and then are traded away for more prospects, and the cycle repeats. Just look at Tampa Bay and their great farm system and see how many championships it has gotten them.

Again AA gave us the only 2 years of exciting baseball in the entire lifetime of many current Jays fans - I would not trade that for anything.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#744 » by Fairview4Life » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:03 pm

gei wrote:Umm... what? Houston and the Yankees compete consistently because they consistently sign big name free agents for big $$$ - it has very little to do with their farm system.


Yes, who doesn't remember the famous SI cover predicting all of the free agents Houston was going to sign in 2017.

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#745 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:07 pm

gei wrote:
Umm... what? Houston and the Yankees compete consistently because they consistently sign big name free agents for big $$$ - it has very little to do with their farm system.


In the case of Houston, you could not possibly be less correct. Houston does almost nothing in free agency. They've signed one player (not including extensions) to a contract worth more than $50m total in Luhnow's tenure. That's four years. There isn't a team in baseball less reliant on free agent signings.

Meanwhile, here's some of the talent that came from their farm system:

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Lance McCullers, plus all of the trades they swung using their insanely good cache of prospects.

And it's not accidental. Houston is a really forward-thinking organization, and they don't sign big-money free agents because, by the numbers, signing big-money free agents is really awful value these days.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#746 » by Skin Blues » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:10 pm

gei wrote:
dagger wrote:
gei wrote:Seriously? Who says this?

As I mentioned earlier, AA gave us literally the only 2 years of baseball worth watching from the Jays in the last 26 years.


There is enough young talent in the system right now, to do the same thing, and for a similar short period of time. Or we could become like Houston or the Yankees - the standard we need to attain talent wise if we aspire to a World Championship - and actually be competitive for five or six seasons and hopefully more. This isn't the NBA where you need a top talent among your starting five to aspire to a title; we lucked into one of those, and got the title. In the AL East, there is no guarantee of a playoff spot let along being competitive for a pennant or World Championship with a 90 win team. AA did his deal with the devil, and let's not forget his years of good baseball followed 20 years of mediocrity. I don't consider trading two years of relative success for 20 more years of mediocrity a particularly good outcome. We all knew at the time of the deadline dealings in 2015 that he was opening a short term window. Maybe if Sanchez, Tulo and Donaldson had at least remained healthy, there might have been a way to extend the window for another season, but it just wasn't to be. When this team starts to be seriously competitive again, there is a strong likelihood that it will be a more sustainable proposition.


Umm... what? Houston and the Yankees compete consistently because they consistently sign big name free agents for big $$$ - it has very little to do with their farm system.

Prospects in most cases turn out to be average players. In the best case they turn out to be great players who have a few great years, and then are traded away for more prospects, and the cycle repeats. Just look at Tampa Bay and their great farm system and see how many championships it has gotten them.

Again AA gave us the only 2 years of exciting baseball in the entire lifetime of many current Jays fans - I would not trade that for anything.

Who are these big free agents the Astros are signing?? The only free agents on their roster that are contributing anything are Wade Miley who was basically free, Michael Brantley, and Josh Reddick. They traded prospects for Cole/Verlander/Greinke. Gerrit Cole they actually got in return for Joe Musgrove, who is one of the guys jettisoned by AA.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#747 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:19 pm

While we're having a dunk-off, should mention that even the Yankees don't really do the big-money FA thing like they once did. They kicked the tires on Harper and Machado but weren't competitive, and here's the list of all their major league free agent signings from the past three years:

JA Happ (re-signed) - 2 years, $34m guaranteed.
Adam Ottavino - 3 years, $27m.
DJ LeMahieu - 2 years, $24m.
Neil Walker - 1 year, $4m.
Chris Carter - 1 year, $3.5m.
Troy Tulowitzki - 1 year, vet minimum.

That's it. The last time they signed a free agent from another team to a huge-money (read: $100m+ total) contract is Jacoby Ellsbury. In the 2013/14 offseason. We've spent more in free agency than the Yankees have.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#748 » by BigLeagueChew » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:45 pm

Where do people come up with this stuff?

Operating under the assumption that teams just build by free agency.

Note even the Raptors or Leafs just build by free agency. Or the playoff team AA built for that matter.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#749 » by Fairview4Life » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:50 pm

gei wrote:Again AA gave us the only 2 years of exciting baseball in the entire lifetime of many current Jays fans - I would not trade that for anything.


I wouldn't trade away those years, but...I'd certainly like a do over on the Marlins and Dickey trades.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#750 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 6:16 pm

Fairview4Life wrote:
gei wrote:Again AA gave us the only 2 years of exciting baseball in the entire lifetime of many current Jays fans - I would not trade that for anything.


I wouldn't trade away those years, but...I'd certainly like a do over on the Marlins and Dickey trades.


And probably the Happ trade. He was pretty mediocre until we traded him for Saunders (which didn't work out spectacularly either), and only good after the current group signed him in FA. Most of the five prospects we gave up didn't amount to a tonne, but Musgrove we could have used.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#751 » by polo007 » Fri Aug 9, 2019 8:56 pm

Mark Shapiro hints at next steps for Blue Jays on and off the field - Sportsnet.ca

TORONTO – Some early hints at the Blue Jays’ off-season planning emerged Thursday and though priorities could clearly change with nearly one-third of the regular season remaining, it’s already apparent that the club will be targeting pitching.

More specifically, the Blue Jays expect to spend ‘the bulk’ of their resources on starting pitching this off-season, according to president and CEO Mark Shapiro. Some bullpen pieces will probably join the Blue Jays, too.

As a promising core of position players establishes itself in the majors, the Blue Jays feel ‘a sense of urgency to win,’ Shapiro said. In 2020, the club hopes that core progresses from competing to winning.

“We will certainly have to and will supplement that internal group of players, look to do it as soon as this off-season,” he said. “But it’s not a great off-season for free-agent talent.”

With all kinds of payroll flexibility available and a clear need for pitching, the Blue Jays will surely be active in free agency this winter. But Shapiro described the front office approach as ‘opportunistic,’ suggesting modest deals are more likely than a pursuit of, say, Gerrit Cole.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#752 » by Wo1verine » Fri Aug 9, 2019 9:08 pm

Schad wrote:
Wo1verine wrote:The key is how long?

I think it would be unacceptable to have another off-season signing comparable players like Hudson, Sogard , Phelps etc


We are going to hit so we just need to keep on adding impact arms from every avenue over these next couple years.


2021, likely. We'll start building back up in the offseason, but it isn't going to happen overnight...if we try to buy a rotation in free agency in one fell swoop, it's likely going to end in tears.

Yeah, i don't think it needs to be done all this off-season but adding a meaningful pitcher or two will help speed up the process.


Pearson learning from a vet like Cole or Bumgarner ( should the term not be foolish) could be big for his development.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#753 » by dagger » Fri Aug 9, 2019 9:29 pm

Wo1verine wrote:
Schad wrote:
Wo1verine wrote:The key is how long?

I think it would be unacceptable to have another off-season signing comparable players like Hudson, Sogard , Phelps etc


We are going to hit so we just need to keep on adding impact arms from every avenue over these next couple years.


2021, likely. We'll start building back up in the offseason, but it isn't going to happen overnight...if we try to buy a rotation in free agency in one fell swoop, it's likely going to end in tears.

Yeah, i don't think it needs to be done all this off-season but adding a meaningful pitcher or two will help speed up the process.


Pearson learning from a vet like Cole or Bumgarner ( should the term not be foolish) could be big for his development.


I'm sure we could use a couple of upper level veteran starters, but the mentoring thing is a bit overrated. With Galvis and the Latin players, there are language and cultural issues, but for Pearson or any of the best prospects, just good coaching and direction ought to be enough. I don't think having a bunch of veterans around our young starters in the 2012-16 timeframe helped or hindered the latter.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#754 » by Wo1verine » Fri Aug 9, 2019 9:45 pm

dagger wrote:
Wo1verine wrote:
Schad wrote:
2021, likely. We'll start building back up in the offseason, but it isn't going to happen overnight...if we try to buy a rotation in free agency in one fell swoop, it's likely going to end in tears.

Yeah, i don't think it needs to be done all this off-season but adding a meaningful pitcher or two will help speed up the process.


Pearson learning from a vet like Cole or Bumgarner ( should the term not be foolish) could be big for his development.


I'm sure we could use a couple of upper level veteran starters, but the mentoring thing is a bit overrated. With Galvis and the Latin players, there are language and cultural issues, but for Pearson or any of the best prospects, just good coaching and direction ought to be enough. I don't think having a bunch of veterans around our young starters in the 2012-16 timeframe helped or hindered the latter.

Perhaps but in the end i kinda believe you can learn from the better pitchers in the game like how Halladay learned his cutter from Rivera and became one of the best for so long.

Pearson should be good either way but learning from someone who has been an all-star multiple times could help him take the next step from good to great potentially.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#755 » by Schad » Fri Aug 9, 2019 10:35 pm

I'd think that we're likely to go a tier below Cole or Bumgarner. Free agency isn't the only option, either; we have enough middling prospects to make trades for guys who have a bit of team control and some upside (if not current production) without giving away the crown jewels.

Also, a simpler solution than spending $150m to help Pearson learn things would probably be to send him to the Driveline guys, heh. Their hitrate seems higher than holistic bullpen session learning.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#756 » by ratul » Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:15 am

dagger wrote:
ratul wrote:Lol, wow - they didn't want to draft Bichette! Lol - this rebuild is TRASH. FIRE THESE GUYS please


They did draft him. So it's irrelevant if they had to be talked into it (in which case they were open minded) or if they simply deferred to their scouting director (which good organizations do).

If you want to look at things another way, let's look at first and second round picks for the current administration for 2016-2019 vs first and second round picks for the previous administration from 2010-2015. This is a handicap race because compensation for losing free agents was much greater for the former administration than the current administration. The rules today give only some teams losing the biggest free agent a meaningful bit of compensation.

Here are your Anthopoulos firsts

2010 Deck McGuire
2010 Aaron Sanchez
2010 Noah Syndergaard
2010 Asher Wojciechowski
2011 Tyler Beede*
2011 Jacob Anderson
2011 Joe Musgrove
2011 Dwight Smith Jr.
2011 Kevin Comer
2012 Marcus Stroman
2012 Matt Smoral
2012 Mitch Nay
2012 Tyler Gonzales
2013 Phil Bickford*
2014 Jeff Hoffman
2014 Max Pentecost
2015 Jon Harris

Anthopoulus got 12 supplemental or comp picks for losing free agents, most of whom were marginal value losses, and for failing to sign first round picks Tyler Beebe and Phil Bickford. Imagine getting a first round pick for losing Frankie Francisco in free agency!

Of the 17 regular or special first round picks above - some of which were slotted into the 40s and 50s by the time all free agent losses around the league were compensated for with comp round picks - you could say that two, Stroman and Sanchez, made an impact playing for the Jays, and Syndergaard in particular brought us R.A Dickey. A few others are making varying contributions for other teams, but never made it to the majors with Toronto on a sustained basis (think Dwight Smith Jr.)

For the same period, second rounders were

2010 Griffin Murphy
2010 Kellen Sweeney
2010 Justin Nicolino
2011 Daniel Norris
2011 Jeremy Gabryszwski
2012 Chase de Jong
2013 Clinton Hollon
2014 Sean Reid Foley
2015 Brady Singer

Now, it's not as if there weren't some other players in lower rounds who have done alright in the majors (like Matt Boyd and Kendall Graveman) and there a couple of guys with outside chances to success still in the system, their development delayed by injuries (think Justin Maese and Patrick Murphy). And some of those picks were part of the 2015 trades that brought David Price and Troy Tulowitski. You can even argue that using Chase de Jong to buy the team out of the maximum penalty created by signing Vlad Guerrero Jr above the legal spend limit helped the team re-enter the July 2 signing period for internationals sooner.

Still, it's rather remarkable that all of that drafting never yielded a) a major league position player and b) was only good enough to be converted into a couple of post-prime veterans in Price and Tulo, the former a pending free agent they wouldn't be able to re-sign and the latter a horribly expensive, modest upgrade on Jose Reyes for one and a half seasons before, like Lot's wife, turning into a pillar of salt.

In fact, the only drafted position player to make it through the system during AA's time was Kevin Pillar, and if you think it something to criticize that Bo Bichette wasn't the apple of Russ Atkins' eye, well don't give any credit to AA for a 35th round pick making it, because it's highly doubtful AA was in the room or gave a rat's ass about the 35th round pick. The success of that pick is on the scout who recommended Pillar, and no one else.

Now let's look at the current regime's first and second round picks. Again, their only comp pick was in 2017 for losing EE in free agency. And the addition of the competitive balance round has meant second round picks - which were delayed in the AA era because of the liberal comp picks awarded for losing free agents - are similarly deferred, only in the case of competitive balance picks, this is an area where the supposedly mid-market Jays cannot quality or benefit from unless they trade for such a pick.

So this is the lineup of Shatkins firsts. And sure, it's earlier days for some of this group

2016 TJ Zeuch
2017 Logan Warmoth
2017 Nate Pearson
2018 Jordan Groshans
2019 Alek Manoah

Second rounders
2016 JB Woodman (Comp)
2016 Bo Bichette
2017 Hagen Danner
2018 Griffin Conine
2019 Kendall Williams

Of these picks, only Warmoth looks like a failure of the first round and Woodman the second, but they moved off Woodman by trading him for Grichuk. Danner is a wildcard - hits for power but not for average, and as a catcher has declining value in an organization which has found a number of better catching prospects through the international market (Moreno, Kirk, Lopez). However, converting Danner to a pitcher was always an option, and we may see that happen next season. Everyone else on the above list is a live prospect, though Connine had better cut down on his whiffs and avoid another suspension. Of 10 picks through two rounds, the current administration has brought a potential all-star to the majors in Bichette, and has what some scouts consider the best pitching prospect in the majors in Pearson under careful development. There is a great deal of excitement about Groshans as potentially the guy who forces Vladdy to first base. The current top 30 prospect list - even minus Biggio, Vlad and Bo - is as good as any I can remember for an organization which hasn't often excelled in internal development. Yes, credit AA with trailers like Tellez and Alford if they actually get back to the majors and establish themselves - both are doing well right now at BUF and both are on the 40 man roster so we ought to see them with the Jays again next month. But the next wave of new faces, headed by Pearson and possibly Kay, Manoah and Woods Richardson (since pitchers can move through the system faster than position players and there are no bigger talents in their way), will be entirely of this administration's making.



Boy, what a different take on this. I’ll take vladdy, Noah, travis d, stroman, pillar Sanchez and osuna over what shats has done unless Bo is Lou Gehrig.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#757 » by guvernator » Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:37 am

ratul wrote:

Boy, what a different take on this. I’ll take vladdy, Noah, travis d, stroman, pillar Sanchez and osuna over what shats has done unless Bo is Lou Gehrig.

Gotta hand it to you. You have been dunked on so many times on this forum but you keep coming back for more. And I'm sure you are not just a troll because your baseball IQ is very much representative of an average Toronto fan's.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#758 » by agkagk » Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:18 am

guvernator wrote:
ratul wrote:

Boy, what a different take on this. I’ll take vladdy, Noah, travis d, stroman, pillar Sanchez and osuna over what shats has done unless Bo is Lou Gehrig.

Gotta hand it to you. You have been dunked on so many times on this forum but you keep coming back for more. And I'm sure you are not just a troll because your baseball IQ is very much representative of an average Toronto fan's.


I’ve been reading these forums for years.

Five years ago all the expert fanboys were raving over Alford, Pompey (lol) Carlos Perez, Connor Greene, Pentecost etc...


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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#759 » by ratul » Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:40 am

guvernator wrote:
ratul wrote:

Boy, what a different take on this. I’ll take vladdy, Noah, travis d, stroman, pillar Sanchez and osuna over what shats has done unless Bo is Lou Gehrig.

Gotta hand it to you. You have been dunked on so many times on this forum but you keep coming back for more. And I'm sure you are not just a troll because your baseball IQ is very much representative of an average Toronto fan's.


Lol, thanks guvernator. As long as this leads to Shats being fired, I will take that. Me and my moronic Toronto brethren just prefer first place teams. We so stupid!
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#760 » by The_Hater » Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:19 pm

ratul wrote:
guvernator wrote:
ratul wrote:

Boy, what a different take on this. I’ll take vladdy, Noah, travis d, stroman, pillar Sanchez and osuna over what shats has done unless Bo is Lou Gehrig.

Gotta hand it to you. You have been dunked on so many times on this forum but you keep coming back for more. And I'm sure you are not just a troll because your baseball IQ is very much representative of an average Toronto fan's.


Lol, thanks guvernator. As long as this leads to Shats being fired, I will take that. Me and my moronic Toronto brethren just prefer first place teams. We so stupid!


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