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The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#821 » by The_Hater » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:54 pm

This is like watching Socrates debate with a grade 5 student who already flunked grades 2 and 4.

Schad wrote:
ratul wrote:I would broadly agree with this (you missed Lindor as well) except Shats has also traded the following players:
Cliff Lee (Cy Young)
CC Sabathia (Cy Young)
Chris Archer (All-Star)
Marcus Stroman (All-star)
Aaron Sanchez (All-star)
Roberto Alomar (HOF)
Josh Donaldson (All-star)


The Lee and Sabathia trades brought back Carlos Carrasco and Michael Brantley. Given that they couldn't afford to keep either, because they had payroll constraints (and GMs don't control payroll), those were fantastic deals. You're also missing the Colon for Sizemore/Phillips/Lee deal, which was spectacular.

As was the Alomar deal. Even though the prospects failed, they moved him at exactly the right time: Robbie sure as hell didn't play like a Hall of Famer as a Met. To be perfectly blunt, he was bad and making a tonne of money, so even getting nothing for him was a win, because it allowed them to spend their limited resources elsewhere.

Archer's a weird inclusion, because he's exactly the opposite of what you're arguing: traded as a prospect for a veteran, because they were expecting to be playoff contenders in 2009 (that, uh, didn't quite happen). A terrible trade, but cuts completely against the idea that Shapiro has some sort of fixation on youth.

Also, Aaron Sanchez doesn't belong anywhere near this conversation. Overall, you have a fixation on past performance rather than actual current value; making an All-Star appearance does not make you a star in perpetuity.

He has made the following free agent signings:
Kerry Wood (20mn)
Paul Byrd (14mn)
Nick Swisher (56mn)
Michael Bourn (48mn)
Randall Grichuk (55mn)


Here's where this post gets weird. You tut-tut Shapiro for being too fixated on cheap young players...and then go after his free agent signings. Swisher, Wood and Bourn were all recent All-Stars. Those are the sort of established, accomplished vets you like!

It's almost as if spending lavishly on older players is not actually a panacea.

He also had/let the following players walk:
Jim Thome (HOF)
Kenny Lofton (HOF)
Juan Gonzalez (All-Star)
Edwin Encarnacion (All-star)


Thome was asking for money they couldn't afford. Juan Gonzalez was a shade of his former self in Texas, and a terrible contract. Encarnacion hasn't been worth his money to date. The only one that looks bad in retrospect is Lofton, who bounced back at age 35 (in an era where people did that).

There is a pattern. Shats trades 'old' for young; vets for control. Fan favourites for youth. He seems to be able to garner young talent yet can't build around the talent and then blows it up when it doesn't translate into anything. This is while attendance falters as fan favourites get perennially traded for more control. I am certain he would have traded Lindor had he had the chance. Again, prob the reason why he hasn't won a division title in 11 years.


The pattern in Cleveland was that he had a limited payroll and couldn't afford to pay the exorbitant contracts that proliferated in that era. Tampa Bay's management does exactly the same thing, though they do it better than anyone in baseball. That's how small market teams compete.

And the reason why Cleveland has had a period of sustained success is that, going back several years ago, they managed to nail down a bunch of their players to (below-market) extensions to prolong their time with the club, rather than face down the likelihood of having to trade them. It was excellent asset management.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#822 » by phillipmike » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:41 pm

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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#823 » by Schad » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:51 pm

Your neighbour's kid has a 8' hoop. The ball is always right there. You walk by it constantly.

At least once a day, you're 360ing that ****, aren't you?
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#824 » by I_Like_Dirt » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:09 pm

Where was this passion when Shapiro and Atkins acquired former allstar Edwin Jackson? Why no complaints when they let that former allstar go?
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#825 » by vaff87 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:26 pm

Ratul would field the "all washed up team". $300 mil payroll + lux tax for a bunch of players way past their prime; but dammit, they used to be all stars!
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#826 » by Schad » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:15 pm

Kinda fitting, really: Toronto almost ended up with the Giants when they left New York, so we could pay tribute to the current Giants by emulating their highly successful model from the past three years. They have eight former All-Stars regularly appearing in their lineup, plus Kevin Pillar. And they're good defensively! Shame their hitting is even worse than ours, despite all those big names.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#827 » by vaff87 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:16 pm

Schad wrote:Kinda fitting, really: Toronto almost ended up with the Giants when they left New York, so we could pay tribute to the current Giants by emulating their highly successful model from the past three years. They have eight former All-Stars regularly appearing in their lineup, plus Kevin Pillar. And they're good defensively! Shame their hitting is even worse than ours, despite all those big names.


Just noticed Kevin Pillar has an equal number of walks and GIDP this year.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#828 » by ratul » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:07 pm

Lol, the mounting pile of excuses to defend a GM who hasn't won a division title in 11 years is pretty amazing. There is a lot of dank Kool-aid around leading to this inexorable group-think. Tonight, we see a real GM (pun intended) and the bringer of rain coming into our house with the Braves in town. I guess we at least think fondly of the memories of what it was like to be in first place.

I am amazed at the flippancy ascribed to trading multiple cy young award winners, all-stars, hall of famers. Of course, they collectively went on to appear in about 18 all star games after being traded by Mr. Shats. Meanwhile, shats got about 8 all star games in return. If you can trade a dollar for two quarters, you have to do it right?

Further amazed that the collective fun police believes Shats is good at signing free agents? Nick Swisher for 54 millie? Why not! Kerry Wood for 20mn? Of course. Randall Grihuk for 55mn? Great idea shats! Of course, maybe Shats is terrible at signing free agents - but the excuse train is running - you best get on.

And of course, it all leads to Shats being a mediocre GM at best. BUT the Kool aid drinkers say he's as astute as the Rays management or even Billy Beane. Of course, sadly facts get in the way of this pizzazz:

Shats
Career Win percentage as a GM in Cleveland and Toronto: .485
Seasons: 19
Division titles: 1 (2 if you include 2001 as he was handed a perennial contender in Cleveland)
Playoff appearances: 2 (4 if you include the 2001 and 2016 playoff teams shats inherited)
Percentage of years in the playoffs: 10%; 20% including 2001 and 2016

By comparision, looking at Billy Beane the last 20 years

Career Win percentage for Billy Beane in Oakland the past 20 years: 0.530
Seasons: 20
Division titles: 6
Playoff appearances: 9
% of years in the playoffs: 45%

Of course, but Shats is not Billy Beane - the new line of thinking is that he is like the Tampa Bay front office, yet of course facts get in the way

Tampa Bay since Friedman in 2005
Overall win percentage since Friedman joined in 2005: 0.510
Seasons: 15
Division titles: 2
Playoff appearances: 4
% of years in the playoffs: 27%


And then of course, we have our good friend double A as a GM
Double A as a GM in Toronto and Atlanta
Career Win percentage: 0.513
Seasons: 9
Division titles: 2 (three if you include this year)
Playoff appearances: 3 (including this year with the Braves)
% of years in the playoffs: 33%

The cavalcade of excuses ranges from lack of money, the argument that if you can trade a hall of famer, you totally have to to do it or then why NOT Nick Swisher! With little other than conjecture, we hear shats is Billy Beane, er, I mean, Andrew Friedman, er I mean - he didn't have the BUDGET, even though Oakland and Tampa Bay didn't have one either. Lay off the sauce boys and let's be sure to cheer the bringer of rain and Double A tonight - a good canadian kid who done well.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#829 » by BigLeagueChew » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:24 pm

Division titles and playoff appearances make you irrationally fall in love for AA. While the Raptors or Leafs fans and execs laugh at just making the playoffs.

Then you compare execs that rebuild and their record to one that has joined teams that are already decent. Let's see how much Braves fans enjoy just playoff appearances or divison titles.

it's about winning the whole damn thing.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#830 » by Schad » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:58 pm

ratul wrote:I am amazed at the flippancy ascribed to trading multiple cy young award winners, all-stars, hall of famers. Of course, they collectively went on to appear in about 18 all star games after being traded by Mr. Shats. Meanwhile, shats got about 8 all star games in return. If you can trade a dollar for two quarters, you have to do it right?


Rule number one, whether building a sports team or an investment portfolio: Don't Pay For Past Performance. We could build a rotation with three active Cy Young award winners this offseason, as they'll all have a chance to be free agents. Won't cost all that much either. It would be suicidally stupid, however, because having a rotation anchored by Jake Arrieta, Rick Porcello and Felix Hernandez would be really pants, on account of the apparent existence of linear time, something that I do start to doubt every time you loop back to an argument that you've made unpersuasively eighteen times previous.

Further amazed that the collective fun police believes Shats is good at signing free agents? Nick Swisher for 54 millie? Why not! Kerry Wood for 20mn? Of course. Randall Grihuk for 55mn? Great idea shats! Of course, maybe Shats is terrible at signing free agents - but the excuse train is running - you best get on.


Or maybe building through free agency just isn't a smart idea, which is why teams increasingly aim to build younger, as we have done.

And of course, it all leads to Shats being a mediocre GM at best. BUT the Kool aid drinkers say he's as astute as the Rays management or even Billy Beane. Of course, sadly facts get in the way of this pizzazz:

Shats
Career Win percentage as a GM in Cleveland and Toronto: .485
Seasons: 19
Division titles: 1 (2 if you include 2001 as he was handed a perennial contender in Cleveland)
Playoff appearances: 2 (4 if you include the 2001 and 2016 playoff teams shats inherited)
Percentage of years in the playoffs: 10%; 20% including 2001 and 2016

By comparision, looking at Billy Beane the last 20 years

Career Win percentage for Billy Beane in Oakland the past 20 years: 0.530
Seasons: 20
Division titles: 6
Playoff appearances: 9
% of years in the playoffs: 45%

Of course, but Shats is not Billy Beane - the new line of thinking is that he is like the Tampa Bay front office, yet of course facts get in the way

Tampa Bay since Friedman in 2005
Overall win percentage since Friedman joined in 2005: 0.510
Seasons: 15
Division titles: 2
Playoff appearances: 4
% of years in the playoffs: 27%


And then of course, we have our good friend double A as a GM
Double A as a GM in Toronto and Atlanta
Career Win percentage: 0.513
Seasons: 9
Division titles: 2 (three if you include this year)
Playoff appearances: 3 (including this year with the Braves)
% of years in the playoffs: 33%


No one has stated that Shapiro is as good as Beane or Friedman or Silverman. You haven't even created an effective strawman here: you just lazily pushed the straw into a misshapen pile and tossed a handful of googly eyes on it. Thing is, no one in baseball measures up there, and that includes AAaaaaAaAAAAAaA. Tampa's ability to continually renew their asset base is nothing short of extraordinary, and while Beane's been more uneven, there's no questioning his overall results given that his team has played in a sewage lagoon in front of a handful of squatters for 15 years.

The one advantage that Tampa and Oakland have? They don't have to care about the fans. At all. They can trade all of their veterans as they approach free agency, and pivot from competing to rebuilding overnight (Oakland traded Donaldson coming off an 88 win season where they reached the Wild Card). They can build highly competitive teams by making the exact sort of old-for-young trade-offs you keep decrying when made by our current management.

Beane traded Donaldson, Sonny Gray, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, Rich Hill, Josh Reddick, Trevor Cahill and more, and let the likes of Giambi, Zito, Tejada, Damon, and others walk. In your quixotic fight for a roster comprised entirely of fossils making eight figures, Billy Beane should be enemy number one. Billy Beane wins because he thinks your approach to team-building is bad.

The cavalcade of excuses ranges from lack of money, the argument that if you can trade a hall of famer, you totally have to to do it or then why NOT Nick Swisher! With little other than conjecture, we hear shats is Billy Beane, er, I mean, Andrew Friedman, er I mean - he didn't have the BUDGET, even though Oakland and Tampa Bay didn't have one either. Lay off the sauce boys and let's be sure to cheer the bringer of rain and Double A tonight - a good canadian kid who done well.


The argument is that Hall of Famers are not necessarily good at this present moment. Mordecai Brown has one hell of a resume, but I do not want him heading our rotation on account of his having been deceased since 1948. Trading an old Robbie Alomar is not a knock against our management. If you want to see the 2015 Jays ride into battle again, you can probably organize an exhibition game against an Atlantic League team or some such, on account of the vast majority of them having sweet fk all to do with their time now that they're not good enough to play major league baseball. But I'd hurry while most of them are still able to break into a jog.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#831 » by The_Hater » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:25 am

vaff87 wrote:
Schad wrote:Kinda fitting, really: Toronto almost ended up with the Giants when they left New York, so we could pay tribute to the current Giants by emulating their highly successful model from the past three years. They have eight former All-Stars regularly appearing in their lineup, plus Kevin Pillar. And they're good defensively! Shame their hitting is even worse than ours, despite all those big names.


Just noticed Kevin Pillar has an equal number of walks and GIDP this year.


And Gibby thought batting him lead off was a good idea once upon a time....
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#832 » by SharoneWright » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:21 am

The_Hater wrote:
vaff87 wrote:
Schad wrote:Kinda fitting, really: Toronto almost ended up with the Giants when they left New York, so we could pay tribute to the current Giants by emulating their highly successful model from the past three years. They have eight former All-Stars regularly appearing in their lineup, plus Kevin Pillar. And they're good defensively! Shame their hitting is even worse than ours, despite all those big names.


Just noticed Kevin Pillar has an equal number of walks and GIDP this year.


And Gibby thought batting him lead off was a good idea once upon a time....


Eliminates the GIDP though. 8-)
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#833 » by BigLeagueChew » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:50 pm

If fans fall for Pillar or Cowgill they won't have any problems finding a new favorite.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#834 » by Black Watch » Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:23 pm

BigLeagueChew wrote:Division titles and playoff appearances make you irrationally fall in love for AA. While the Raptors or Leafs fans and execs laugh at just making the playoffs.

Apples to oranges. Literally more than half the league makes the playoffs in both the NHL and the NBA. Making the postseason in the MLB is rather a tall order and deserves our respect.

Ratul is a cherry-picking troll, but his attention to troll detail should be encouraged, for he's riling you all up, forcing us to focus on the positives and on the future, which is not easy to do around here in general (sorry, guys—most of you are cynics), much less in the last throes of a 100-loss season.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#835 » by I_Like_Dirt » Wed Aug 28, 2019 6:50 pm

Black Watch wrote:...forcing us to focus on the positives and on the future, which is not easy to do around here in general (sorry, guys—most of you are cynics), much less in the last throes of a 100-loss season.



You're right that's generally a tall order but weirdly enough Shapiro and Atkins seem to have found a way to actually build a rather unusual consensus that things are looking up (trolls aside). The Jays are 14-13 since calling up Bichette and have been competitive against both bad and good teams. The pitching has stabilized with the removals of Jackson and Sanchez. The team isn't going to be a playoff team next year but the positive signs are all there. The cynicism is largely the result of short-term thinking. The current roster is anything but the result of short-term thinking. So naturally we have trolls arguing for a return to short-term thinking. With the potential for Pearson, Kay and Zeuch to be called up at some point next season, the pitching staff looks like it stands to get stronger. There aren't a lot of young bats that are likely to be joining the team next season but Vlad and Bo have really turned the offense around in general.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#836 » by BigLeagueChew » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:17 pm

Black Watch wrote:
BigLeagueChew wrote:Division titles and playoff appearances make you irrationally fall in love for AA. While the Raptors or Leafs fans and execs laugh at just making the playoffs.

Apples to oranges. Literally more than half the league makes the playoffs in both the NHL and the NBA. Making the postseason in the MLB is rather a tall order and deserves our respect.

Ratul is a cherry-picking troll, but his attention to troll detail should be encouraged, for he's riling you all up, forcing us to focus on the positives and on the future, which is not easy to do around here in general (sorry, guys—most of you are cynics), much less in the last throes of a 100-loss season.


Yeah other sports don't match up very well to each other in comparisons but the goal remains the same and how they should get there. Wonder how many here witnessed 92 or 93 or the building years before that.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#837 » by Schad » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:31 pm

Yeah, I wasn't particularly positive 18 months ago, because we had blown an opportunity to rebuild earlier, and consequently it was a really tall task for us to basically grow a whole team through the draft/IFA in relatively short order. We still missed an opportunity to be even better positioned, but our farm system has improved by leaps and bounds...pretty much all of our higher-upside prospects have had good years, with the exception of Kevin Smith.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#838 » by bluerap23 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:08 pm

The resuscitation of the organizational pitching future is extremely impressive.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#839 » by The_Hater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:10 pm

BigLeagueChew wrote:If fans fall for Pillar or Cowgill they won't have any problems finding a new favorite.


In his defense, in all my years I haven't seen very many average MLB ball players who were more exciting to watch than Kevin Pillar. His becoming a fan favourite was no fluke.
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Re: The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread 

Post#840 » by agkagk » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:47 pm

The_Hater wrote:
BigLeagueChew wrote:If fans fall for Pillar or Cowgill they won't have any problems finding a new favorite.


In his defense, in all my years I haven't seen very many average MLB ball players who were more exciting to watch than Kevin Pillar. His becoming a fan favourite was no fluke.


He was a hot dog who would intentionally take bad routes to balls so he could dive.

It got to the point where pat tabler was calling him for it during telecasts.

He was the anti devon white.

But kudos to pillar for making a career out of it. Talk about maxing out!

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