The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[Schad]

There's also a difference between having money to spend and wanting to spend everything at once. No matter what sort of budget we are allotted, spending $150m+ next year to chase the playoffs makes absolutely no sense. We aren't at that stage, and throwing a bunch of cash at free agents is more likely to be actively harmful from 2021 on than it is to help.

We will probably end up spending a fair amount in AAV anyway, but the focus should be on trying to lock in the younger players if at all possible. Just has far more value long-term than acquiring a bunch of guys in their 30s or making a Big Splash just to show that we can.

[polo007]

Mark Shapiro joins Tim and Sid to discuss the progress made by the Toronto Blue Jays, developing young stars, and how they will make the jump from a competitive team, to a winning team in the future.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/shapiro-preaches-patience-blue-jays-make-jump/

[polo007]

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins sat down with Stephen Brunt to talk about everything the Blue Jays went through this season, from bringing in manager Charlie Montoyo to the introduction of young stars like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/ross-atkins-sits-stephen-brunt-looks-back-blue-jays-season/

[BigLeagueChew]

Sound like we will be signing a few vets in free agency, particularly pitching and an outfielder.

[polo007]

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[ratul]

Read on Twitter

Lol, press is finally turning on these clowns

[Schad]

We weren't creative in trying to fix the rotation on the fly because it didn't matter. 2019 didn't matter. Spending resources to have better pitching this season wasn't and shouldn't have been a goal.

The current regime has made some serious screw-ups (not rebuilding earlier, and in particular not trading Donaldson for Flaherty if that indeed was on the table) but refusing to try to paper over the cracks in a rebuilding season isn't really one of them. We could have spent resources trying to win 75 games instead of 67, but why?

[VanWest82]

I, for one, am very satisfied with the tanking effort this year. I'll gladly take the number 5 overall pick. We can go the college route and line up the time line with Vlad and Bo, or go young and trade for help in a year or two.

Shatkins deserve that D, however, because yet again they managed to turn actual assets into mediocre returns by waiting too long. At this point it's a trend. JD, Happ, Osuna (this one is a little trickier), Stroman, Sanchez...these guys were all at one point worth something, and we have little to nothing to show for them. Individually you can litigate the deals/circumstances that led to their departures but in the aggregate it gets harder. It's telling we lost all of those transactions.

Having said all of that a Vlad-Bo-Gurriel-Biggio core isn't a bad start, and with some internal development from our group of AAAA pitchers/prospects and a few shrewd moves we could be back in a wild card race by 2021. We need more studs to realistically compete for a pennant though.

[Schad]

naged to turn actual assets into mediocre returns by waiting too long. At this point it's a trend. JD, Happ, Osuna (this one is a little trickier), Stroman, Sanchez...these guys were all at one point worth something, and we have little to nothing to show for them. Individually you can litigate the deals/circumstances that led to their departures but in the aggregate it gets harder. It's telling we lost all of those transactions.

This is definitely the biggest strike against. The question, unfortunately, is whether the front office had any meaningful say as to the timing, or whether it was made at the ownership level. These are the things that I wish our media spent more time looking into, because the degree to which baseball decisions are made by baseball people is an issue which has hung over the club for a good 25 years at this point.

[VanWest82]

naged to turn actual assets into mediocre returns by waiting too long. At this point it's a trend. JD, Happ, Osuna (this one is a little trickier), Stroman, Sanchez...these guys were all at one point worth something, and we have little to nothing to show for them. Individually you can litigate the deals/circumstances that led to their departures but in the aggregate it gets harder. It's telling we lost all of those transactions.

This is definitely the biggest strike against. The question, unfortunately, is whether the front office had any meaningful say as to the timing, or whether it was made at the ownership level. These are the things that I wish our media spent more time looking into, because the degree to which baseball decisions are made by baseball people is an issue which has hung over the club for a good 25 years at this point.

I can assure you those questions won't come from Sportsnet media. We might have to wait until we're good enough again for anyone south of the border to give a crap though by that time no one will want to go there.

I suspect you're right wrt JD. People were still coming to the ballpark in droves late 2017 even though we weren't good anymore. The rest of them are squarely on Shatkins IMO.

[Schad]

I can assure you those questions won't come from Sportsnet media. We might have to wait until we're good enough again for anyone south of the border to give a crap though by that time no one will want to go there.

I suspect you're right wrt JD. People were still coming to the ballpark in droves late 2017 even though we weren't good anymore. The rest of them are squarely on Shatkins IMO.

Problem with Sanchez/Stroman is that they had ugly 2018s, and an even uglier 2019 in Sanchez's case; by the time we were willing to move on, their trade value had taken a nasty hit, and we were forced to either trade them for a bit less then, or hope that their trade value rebounded. The Happ trade is just plain bad, even considering how cheap rentals have become, but the Osuna trade was quite good especially given the circumstances (Giles has outpitched him slightly by FIP), and I suspect the return for Stroman will look better once full-season prospect lists are released.

Think the primary lesson to be taken is that ownership needs to be willing to allow proactive moves, rather than reacting to revenue. But that boils down to "stop acting like a giant bloated corporation", which is a big ask.

[dagger]

I can assure you those questions won't come from Sportsnet media. We might have to wait until we're good enough again for anyone south of the border to give a crap though by that time no one will want to go there.

I suspect you're right wrt JD. People were still coming to the ballpark in droves late 2017 even though we weren't good anymore. The rest of them are squarely on Shatkins IMO.

Problem with Sanchez/Stroman is that they had ugly 2018s, and an even uglier 2019 in Sanchez's case; by the time we were willing to move on, their trade value had taken a nasty hit, and we were forced to either trade them for a bit less then, or hope that their trade value rebounded. The Happ trade is just plain bad, even considering how cheap rentals have become, but the Osuna trade was quite good especially given the circumstances (Giles has outpitched him slightly by FIP), and I suspect the return for Stroman will look better once full-season prospect lists are released.

Think the primary lesson to be taken is that ownership needs to be willing to allow proactive moves, rather than reacting to revenue. But that boils down to "stop acting like a giant bloated corporation", which is a big ask.

I think, too, that you have to take the trade deadline as a whole. I'm intrigued by Hatch and Taylor, a pair of very low cost acquisitions made using rental relievers who were signed last winter with the hope they might actually fetch something. If one or both of those prospect pitchers pan out as something - anything! - they will be low salary fill that can keep payroll low when extensions for the like of Bo and Biggio (perhaps Vlad Jr) kick in, giving more latitude to management to add better free agents when the Jays' situation becomes more attractive to players who can really add value to a team clearly on the rise. Also, if Elvis Luciano works out, and he might, that will justify the sacrifice of operating with a 24 man MLB roster much of the season. All of these moves, both the high maintenance and low maintenance types, should be reviewed in the aggregate. Sometimes, big bold moves fail - do you think the Pirates would trade Glasnow and Meadows for Archer today? I bet not. But if something done on the margins generates a decent major league return, you also have to take that into consideration.

[polo007]

Atkins 'very excited' about transition to new core, vows to be active in off-season - Video - TSN.ca

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins explains how excited he is by the transition to a new core of players, but understands how tough the season was for fans and vows that the team will be better in 2020. Atkins also discusses how eager he is to add to the team, particularly pitching, this off-season, when he expects the Jays to be a contender, and much more.

Atkins' top off-season priority: 'We just want to make sure that we improve our pitching' - Video - TSN.ca

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins joins Scott Mitchell to discuss the positives and challenges from a 95-loss season, how he plans to go about adding pitching this off-season to improve the club, how he feels about his job security, what he thought about the rookie seasons of the team's four new core players, and what his realistic expectations are for 2020.

'We're on plan': Shapiro confident Jays on right track, understands fans' frustrations - Video - TSN.ca

Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro joins Scott Mitchell to discuss the positives from a tough 95-loss season, how confident he is that the plan is on track with the club, how comfortable he feels about his job security, how active he expects the team to be in the off-season, what his expectations are for next year, and more.

Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins spoke about the Blue Jays' young core and expectations for fans heading into the off season and 2020.

Watch on YouTube

[polo007]

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[Steelo Green]

I doubt Jays go after anyone and aim for the year after. Won’t lie Cole would be nice though.

[Schad]

Curious how it plays out. There's a couple approaches that make sense:

- Buy mid-range. Use that money to get a couple solid relievers, a couple B-level starters, maybe an OF. Pretty standard stuff.
- Lie in wait. Be the team with a giant pile of expendable cash and see what the market does. Basically, rather than having a wish list, be opportunistic and see whether anyone is still available when the feeding frenzy ends, which might allow us to get a better player or two at a discounted price...or to use some of our money to take on bad short-term deals in exchange for more prospect capital. Riskier, but more of a chance to swing for the fences without getting into bidding wars (which, given our market/stature at the moment, is likely to end up with regrettable deals).

[Tanner]

Music to my ears. Free agency is a market inefficiency. It is cheap as hell to sign free agents now, and you can get 2-3 wins out of practically little commitment if you shop in the right aisle. As long as the Jays keep their top prospects, and surround the existing talent with free agents that won't block the Pearson's of the world, then that's the path to take. Maybe it won't lead to the playoffs in 2020, but you can build a good team quickly now that prospects are up, and it won't negatively impact the rebuild since we'd be keeping all of our picks and prospects.

[Schad]

Free agency is a market inefficiency. It is cheap as hell to sign free agents now, and you can get 2-3 wins out of practically little commitment if you shop in the right aisle.

So, I decided to test this. I copied MLBTR's list of 2019 FAs who signed above contracts with an AAV above $5m (excluding Keuchel and Kimbrel as they were in-season signings). It tracks to AAV rather than 2019 salary because i) I could do this all with a few clicks rather than sifting through everyone's player page manually, and ii) it's probably more reflective of free agent value given that it doesn't get starry-eyed about dudes with low year-one salaries and backloaded contracts. As a result, it also doesn't include bonuses or option buyouts, so it's probably best to nudge the price/fWAR up a tad (though not a tonne). A couple things:


Overall value was good, at $6.87m/fWAR. That said, the fWAR in the first year of contracts should be good value, because usually you're pricing in back-end decline.

By contract length:

Long-term (>5 years): $6.3m
Medium-term (3-5 yrs): $7.81m
Short-term (1-2 yrs): $6.91m

By AAV:

Big money ($18m+, ie. above QO): $5m
Upper-mid ($12m-$18m): $7.87m
Lower-mid ($8m-$12m): $7.28m
Bargain bin ($5m-$8m): $11.78m

It's a bit noisy, as you'd expect. Big-money and long-term deals were the best value...something that hasn't been the case in recent years. Which could be mostly noise; 5 of the 6 biggest deals were good value in year one (Machado was slightly below par).

However, here's where it gets tricky. 2019 had a weird number of players having absolutely anomalous results. Lance Lynn nearly doubled his previous career best in WAR at 32. Charlie Morton nearly doubled his at 35. DJ LeMahieu went from averaging 1.9 fWAR/650 over around seven seasons to 5.4 this year. These are really unusual occurrences, and they skew whatever sample they're in a bit. Which comes to what is probably a more accurate gauge of how likely one is to succeed on a free agent deal:

Percentage by AAV/fWAR range:

Stellar ($1m-$4m): 25%
Good ($4m-$7m): 18%
Average ($7m-$11m): 10%
Poor ($11m-$15m): 8%
Awful ($15m+ or negative): 41%.

Percentage better than $9m/fWAR, by AAV:

$18m+: 100%.
$12m-$18m: 42%.
$8m-$12m: 44%.
$4m-$8m: 53%.

Free agency in 2019 was exceptionally feast/famine. The bargain binners were the most likely, beyond the big buys, to be at least solid value...while as a group representing the worst value. The mid tiers were okay in both categories, but a crapshoot individually: it included most of the very best deals, but a whole lot of real trash fires.

So is free agency a market inefficiency? Well, it might have been solid value in 2019, but it's not spectacular value in the aggregate, unless you're looking mostly at the handful of shock performers. And while I haven't run the numbers for 2018, I have a strong suspicion that it represents far worse value...you could argue that it indicates how much better it is getting, but I suspect it's more fluke than anything.


The data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xhOSW4jxOqIDNPPqUk3_qF0W4E7FPSqCHQXvI3g830s

[The_Hater]

Music to my ears. Free agency is a market inefficiency. It is cheap as hell to sign free agents now, and you can get 2-3 wins out of practically little commitment if you shop in the right aisle. As long as the Jays keep their top prospects, and surround the existing talent with free agents that won't block the Pearson's of the world, then that's the path to take. Maybe it won't lead to the playoffs in 2020, but you can build a good team quickly now that prospects are up, and it won't negatively impact the rebuild since we'd be keeping all of our picks and prospects.

Really? This seems like the exact opposite of what most people would think.

[Skin Blues]

There were so many "are you serious?" moments during free agency last year that there's a lot of value to be had for a shrewd GM. Milwaukee got Moustakas and Grandal for pennies on the dollar, and that kind of stuff just didn't really happen before for guys in their prime. You can exclude Keuchel and Kimbrel, but the only reason they held out so long, and got such bad deals, is because the offers just weren't there. And Harper/Machado getting appropriately paid is gonna flatten out any averages you look at.

That said, I don't think we'll see a repeat of last offseason. I think it was the perfect storm of certain teams not wanting to compete/spend, and other teams butted up against the luxury tax. Now that every GM has seen the way that plays out, they may prepare to save some money for the "end game" in Feb/March, to use a fantasy baseball term.