The 2016 starting rotation debate

[dagger]

Aaron Sanchez met with the media today and says he has put on 25 pounds (he doesn't say of what) in order to build durability for starting. Marcus Stroman says they did two a day training together, with one of the goals to make Sanchez ready to start. The off-season conditioning program was worked out with the Jays in the aftermath of his injury last June.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottyMacThinks/status/689491506948808704[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottyMacThinks/status/689490881175429122[/tweet]

[Skin Blues]

I love the optimism, but he'll need to have greatly improved his command if he wants to succeed as a starter. O/U on when he returns to the bullpen (or the minors) if he opens the season in the rotation: May 15th.

[Randle McMurphy]

Don't think it is in this team's best interest again to waste another month or two watching Sanchez look like the new version of Kyle Drabek. I'm sure he'll be stretched out in ST, but he shouldn't get that #5 job over Chavez (or even Hutch).

[The_Hater]

What's the biggest issue with Sanchez being a successful starter? Is it is lack of pitch diversity?

[zilby]

It sounds to me like a fallback scenario if one of Chavez or Hutch fail to impress. Alternatively, some extra stamina for Sanchez wouldn't hurt, he could possibly do long relief and Gibby would move Cecil to setup. Could be a lot of things, but Sanchez was alright as a starter, hopefully another year of experience allows him to improve

[dballislife]

to start the year imo,

stroman
estrada
dickey
happ
sanchez - hes still got the nastiest stuff in the rotation, though hes young and doesnt control it as well yet, and hasn't perfected his craft...u still gotta give him chance to unleash that potential...i might even stick this hard thrower between 2 soft throwers in estrada and dickey just to throw teams off a bit

chavez - long man in pen
hutch - AAA

either of chavez or hutch can be next in line depending on how they pitch, and how the starters pitch or injuries

[s e n s i]

What's the biggest issue with Sanchez being a successful starter? Is it is lack of pitch diversity?

lack of fastball command and no real dependable plus breaking stuff. his curve is decent but his slider and change would need to have improved drastically for any chance at starting long-term.

[Lateral Quicks]

Sanchez belongs in the rotation. He's still only 23, has the body of workhorse (even before the added weight), and the potential to be a front-end guy remains. In a worst case scenario his control doesn't improve and he moves back to the bullpen. It remains too early to give up his starting potential, even in a year we hope to compete. That might be different if we had better alternative options than the likes of Jesse Chavez.

I have doubts about Chavez' stamina over the course of a full season, so I would pencil him as the long-man/swing starter role.

Edit: Didn't mention Hutchison. Reading between the lines it sounds like starts in Buffalo. He's the 7th man on the depth chart barring a great spring.

I would open the season as follows:

Stroman
Estrada
Happ
Sanchez
Dickey

I like Dickey in there between the two power arms; otherwise he would start 4th.

I actually think the bullpen is in pretty good shape, even without Sanchez there to start the year.

Closer Storen
RHP Osuna (sounds like he'll be used two innings at a time to build up his stamina to start in 2017)
LHP Cecil (elite lefty arm)
RHP Tepera (pretty high on him being a solid 7th inning piece this year)
LHP Loup (assuming he returns to form he's a great 7th inning arm)
RHP Schultz (solid middle innings guy with the ability to chew up some IP)
RHP Chavez (long man)

If we add another arm - preferably another lefty - Schultz will be on the outside looking in.

[Randle McMurphy]

What's the biggest issue with Sanchez being a successful starter? Is it is lack of pitch diversity?

Can't command his FB, no reliable secondary pitch. No reason to think that will change any time soon either. All starting him will do is weaken the team in both the rotation and the bullpen for the first few months of the season, just like 2015.

[azorian]

They dropped by my work today. Pleasant guys. I'm all for Sanchez trying it out again. You have to take a chance at his potential. It's not like our depth is oozing with possibilities.

With storen we can actually try it

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

[dballislife]

hey we let hutchinson and his okay/solid stuff try it out, giving up like 4.5 and 5.5 runs a game last 2 years we still stuck with him and gave him the chance, for entire seasons too...what we not gonna let sanchez and his near elite stuff take a few shots at it?

[Lateral Quicks]

hey we let hutchinson and his okay/solid stuff try it out, giving up like 4.5 and 5.5 runs a game last 2 years we still stuck with him and gave him the chance, for entire seasons too...what we not gonna let sanchez and his near elite stuff take a few shots at it?

To be fair though, Hutch showed exemplary control before getting called up, and had an outstanding second half to 2014 before blowing up in 2015.

But yeah, Sanchez deserves a longer leash for sure. Again, if we had clearly better options than him, it might be different.

[Raider917]

are the rumors of trading Dickey dead now? i heard that a few weeks ago that they wanted to. i would love to see it

[The_Hater]

are the rumors of trading Dickey dead now? i heard that a few weeks ago that they wanted to. i would love to see it

I would imagine if it does happen, it would have to be soon. Because it would almost certainly come tied with a free agent signing such as Fister or Latos for similar $$$.

[kobejohn89]

I remember Sanchez being one of our best starters in his last few starts before his injury last year. I think he should be slotted as our number 5 to start the season

[rarefind]

There is no reason why Sanchez cannot compete for a SP job in ST. Some of you seem as if the book should be considered written on a 23 year and his ability to be able to locate and mix in his curve and slider. Sanchez is easily good enough to be a #5, right now. How Hutchison can slot in ahead of Sanchez in a pre - ST mock rotation is laughable especially with Storen solidifying the bullpen.

[JaysRule15]

No way you make a 23 year old with a great stuff a reliever right away. Yes, Sanchez's fastball command is mediocre and he doesn't have great secondary pitches, but you still have to give him a shot to make the rotation in spring training. Remember, he's auditioning to be the 5th starter, not a number two behind Stroman. Getting a 4ish ERA from Sanchez would be alright. Besides, the only way he'll get better as a starter is when he gets a chance to grow into the role (as a reliever, all he does is pump fastballs. His secondary pitches remain neglected). Now, I'm not saying that he should just be handed the job. If Hutch or Chavez outpitch Sanchez in ST, then he should be sent to the pen. But the Blue Jays shouldn't give up on Sanchez starting. Especially not this early.

[SharoneWright]

Marcus Stroman joins BioSteel roster:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-stroman-latest-to-join-biosteel-roster/

It's a natural fit...
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/37482092/

[Santoki]

are the rumors of trading Dickey dead now? i heard that a few weeks ago that they wanted to. i would love to see it

There were never any legitimate rumours. It was just Blair mindlessly blathering again about something he has no inside knowledge about. A couple of people jumped on it and the whole thing lasted maybe two days before people realized it had no legs and came out of the mouth of Jeff Blair.

[CrookedJ]

What's the biggest issue with Sanchez being a successful starter? Is it is lack of pitch diversity?

Can't command his FB, no reliable secondary pitch. No reason to think that will change any time soon either. All starting him will do is weaken the team in both the rotation and the bullpen for the first few months of the season, just like 2015.

A interesting piece by Blue Jays Plus last week making a case that his sinker / 4 seamer / cutter with his curve could be solid enough weapons to work without a change up.

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/does-aaron-sanchez-have-the-repertoire-to-be-a-successful-starter/

The cutter is Sanchez’s newest pitch and arguably the most integral to becoming a major league starter. As Josh Howsam wrote during the season, Sanchez’s addition of the cutter complements his sinker exceptionally well. Due to the frequency with which Sanchez throws his sinker, hitters become accustomed to seeing the ball move down and to the arm side. The cutter moves in the complete opposite direction. Even though the sample size is small for Sanchez’s cutter, let’s take a look at how it matches up against Miller, Ross and Kluber’s.

The FB command is a much bigger issue than the picthes IMO. He was very good in the starts last season when he had command, and poor without it.

Also his splits vs lefties are really bad, which we can't hide in the rotation. His FIP vs LHB was nearly 7 last season vs 2.56 vs RHB.

I think he should get every chance, but its unlikely that he wins the role. I'm not saying I don't want him too. He certainly has a higher ceiling than Hutch or Chavez. Although I guess Hutchinson looked pretty good in 2014, so who knows.