Around the MLB 2018

Post #1841 » by **Schad** » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:46 pm

Indeed:

BigLeagueChew · Post #1842 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:39 am

Madbum vs Ryu tonight, Dodgers are a game back of the Rockies.

BigLeagueChew · Post #1843 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:59 am

Tie breaking scenarios getting a little more possible for first place, in two different NL divisons. Roughly %34 chance in the NL central and %31 in the NL west.

torontoaces04 · Post #1844 » by **torontoaces04** » Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:09 pm

Schad wrote:Indeed:

Read on Twitter

With the benefit of hindsight, are there any Jays fans who'd make this deal, giving up Vlad?

I'm torn. I love Vlad, but Yelich is going to win NL MVP.

Post #1845 » by **Schad** » Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:25 pm

torontoaces04 wrote:With the benefit of hindsight, are there any Jays fans who'd make this deal, giving up Vlad?

I'm torn. I love Vlad, but Yelich is going to win NL MVP.

Don't think I would. Yelich's performance this year, while fantastic, wouldn't have had any significant impact on our fortunes this season. We're that bad, and the Wild Card threshold is that high. As good as he has been, it'd then be four (very cheap) years of Yelich versus 6.9 (similarly-priced) seasons of Vlad:

Yelich - $51.3m/4 remaining. $12.8m/year.

Vlad (with a fairly aggressive arb schedule) - maybe $75m over 6.9 seasons. $10.9m AAV.

If Yelich produces 7 fWAR a year (which is pretty optimistic), on average, for the remainder of his deal, at $10m/WAR free agent price he'll be good for about $229m in surplus value.

If Vlad produces 5 fWAR a year, on average, he'll be worth $270m in surplus value. And more of that value is likely to line up with bits where we're actually good at baseball.

dagger · Post #1846 » by **dagger** » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:41 pm

Schad wrote:
torontoaces04 wrote:With the benefit of hindsight, are there any Jays fans who'd make this deal, giving up Vlad?

I'm torn. I love Vlad, but Yelich is going to win NL MVP.

Don't think I would. Yelich's performance this year, while fantastic, wouldn't have had any significant impact on our fortunes this season. We're that bad, and the Wild Card threshold is that high. As good as he has been, it'd then be four (very cheap) years of Yelich versus 6.9 (similarly-priced) seasons of Vlad:

Yelich - $51.3m/4 remaining. $12.8m/year.

Vlad (with a fairly aggressive arb schedule) - maybe $75m over 6.9 seasons. $10.9m AAV.

If Yelich produces 7 fWAR a year (which is pretty optimistic), on average, for the remainder of his deal, at $10m/WAR free agent price he'll be good for about $229m in surplus value.

If Vlad produces 5 fWAR a year, on average, he'll be worth $270m in surplus value. And more of that value is likely to line up with bits where we're actually good at baseball.

It's not an analytical thing, but if this team wants to develop a sustainable winning team, not just a team with a 1-2 year window, we have to stick with the best of the kids we draft and develop. We did the prospects for veterans thing multiple times during AA's time. Sometimes it succeeded - Donaldson for Barreto is a deal I still do no matter how Barreto turns out, which is likely to be pretty good. But AA lost the trading winter of 2011-12, especially with the Syndergaard trade, but also to an extent picking up Jose Reyes who ended up being part of the reason we're stuck today with the Albatross Known as Tulo. If you bring along players like Vlad and Bo right, then build around them, include them in the team culture, point them towards endorsements, etc, they are more likely to sign an extension or even a free agent contract and stay for a decade, and that extension or second contract could very well cover their prime rather than become a backloaded post-prime contact. And if you draft and develop well enough, you can focus on building all-stars into premium positions. I've been a exponent of patient organic development, much like the Red Sox and Yankees are doing, and think it's time the Jays stuck with that rather than wander off when the farm system gets deep in talent to make trades to rush things. The Red Sox played it well, establishing their young base and then pushing for quality veterans through trade and free agency.

Post #1847 » by **Schad** » Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:11 pm

And really, that's the thing that needs to be hammered home: building in that fashion isn't just the domain of the have-nots these days. No team can survive without a significant portion of its talent base consisting of cost-controlled youngsters, and while we have a very good farm system, it's not enough without keeping that pipeline going.

We can take another low-percentage one-off shot in 2020, but we'd be far better off recouping as much as we can from the guys with limited control remaining now, and then adding back over time. Talk extension with the couple players who might merit it, sure, but if nothing is forthcoming, move them on.

BigLeagueChew · Post #1848 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:12 am

Cubs and Brewers are tied at 94 wins! %50.1 chance of tie breaker
Dodgers a half game back of the Rockies. %42 chance of tie breaker

SharoneWright · Post #1849 » by **SharoneWright** » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:00 am

Looking for a San Fran win tomorrow coupled with a Jays loss.

Unfortunately, the Giants are playing the Dodgers, who have something really big to play for.

And Go Brewers.

vaff87 · Post #1850 » by **vaff87** » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:35 am

For some reason it bothers me when people say someone other than Yelich should win NL MVP.

Myth11111 · Post #1851 » by **Myth11111** » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:09 pm

Liam Hendricks is expected to start the Wildcard game and they will do a bullpen game.

Post #1852 » by **Schad** » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:43 pm

Appears that there will be a one-game playoff in the NL West and Central, with the losers playing the one-game Wild Card.

Myth11111 · Post #1853 » by **Myth11111** » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:53 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/nl-tiebreaker-games-schedule-announced/c-296427534

1:05 - Brewers at Cubs
4:07 - Rockies at Dodgers

Post #1854 » by **Schad** » Mon Oct 1, 2018 7:24 am

Khris Davis finished the season with a .247 average.

He finished the 2017 season with a .247 average.

He finished the 2016 season with a .247 average.

He finished the 2015 season with a .247 average.

How.

Skin Blues · Post #1855 » by **Skin Blues** » Mon Oct 1, 2018 12:52 pm

Schad wrote:Khris Davis finished the season with a .247 average.

He finished the 2017 season with a .247 average.

He finished the 2016 season with a .247 average.

He finished the 2015 season with a .247 average.

How.

If you look at those 4 years combined, he only has a .246 average. heh.

Post #1856 » by **Schad** » Mon Oct 1, 2018 4:22 pm

Skin Blues wrote:If you look at those 4 years combined, he only has a .246 average. heh.

Were you including 2014 and his wildly-divergent .244 average? That came when he was but a young lad who hadn't refined his game into the model of consistency he is today.

Post #1857 » by **Schad** » Mon Oct 1, 2018 7:11 pm

It's 2018, and Erik Kratz is starting in an exceedingly important game. That's kinda neat.

BigLeagueChew · Post #1858 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Tue Oct 2, 2018 4:59 am

Schad wrote:It's 2018, and Erik Kratz is starting in an exceedingly important game. That's kinda neat.

Lol. Noticed Chavez pitching for the Cubs, had no idea.

BigLeagueChew · Post #1859 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Tue Oct 2, 2018 5:00 am

Wild-card games
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
NL wild-card game: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3
AL wild-card game: Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, 8 p.m. ET (TBS)

rotty · Post #1860 » by **rotty** » Tue Oct 2, 2018 2:57 pm

Im more excited about alwc