How would a Jays Fire Sale look like?

North_of_Border · Post #1 » by **North_of_Border** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:14 pm

Now don't get me wrong. The season is young. I'm not throwing the towel. This is just for fun.

Considering all the Free Agents to be on the roster, if the Jays are out of it at some point, Shapiro would Sell the house and do a minor rebuild. Build the team in his vision and walk out of Anthopoulos' shadow.

First to go will be Bautista, Edwin, Cecil, Storen, Dickey as they are FAs with some value.... then Shapiro would try to sell Tulo hard. Then Martin..... then after all that, everyone except Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Travis, Pillar would be in play from the MLB roster.

Basically the Jays have the potential to load the farm with blue chip prospects. Rebuild like the Red Sox or Astros young guns were developed.

Your opinions?

Regulator · Post #2 » by **Regulator** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:32 pm

AA knew what was going to happen and took off

North_of_Border · Post #3 » by **North_of_Border** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:41 pm

Regulator wrote:AA knew what was going to happen and took off

No. AA did not take off because of that reason. He left because he disagreed with Shapiro.

However, all of last season's trade were done because his contract was expiring and he knew Beeston was on his way out. AA knew he was likely auditioning for a new job and sold the farm in the process.

Selfish, yes.... but this city needed just that at that time. 20 years of losing finally ended.

Randle McMurphy · Post #4 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:42 pm

It would look like 2009.

Natural11 · Post #5 » by **Natural11** » Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:46 pm

After 22 years of junk and finally getting a play-off team, another rebuild at this point would be enough for me to take a long break from baseball.

The farm system isn't loaded, but there's a lot of talent on the Jays roster, and some of it young. I would hate to see it blown up.

As frustrating as this ho-hum start has been, we've had 4 of 5 starters pitching pretty well, our closer has been on his game, and our 2-4 hitters have picked it up where they left off last year. While we're looking at the bright side, 3-4 of our losses have been decided by 1 key play or error. If we can get the bullpen to settle in a bit, and 2-3 other bats get it going, all of a sudden we're on a winning streak.

These are the positives that I have to continually remind myself of whenever I see Kevin Pillar lead off.

Sifu · Post #6 » by **Sifu** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:19 am

Just for fun right?

The major league team is loaded with talent that can net some very good prospects and contending teams will really covet.

I would think both Jose and Edwin would get a return just a touch below what Price cost last year.

Cecil and Storen some solid mud level prospects.

Jays could easily vault to a top five farm system I think

bballsparkin · Post #7 » by **bballsparkin** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:41 am

A record of 20-40 oughta do it!

KL78192020 · Post #8 » by **KL78192020** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:03 am

Jose and Edwin are on the outs, this isn't a hypothetical.

Lateral Quicks · Post #9 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 12:35 pm

It would look long and ugly. The farm system is pretty bare, and we wouldn't get a great return for our veteran assets. The time to try for a quick rebuild was prior to last season, or at last year's trade deadline. Instead AA got rid of Norris, Hoffman, and nine other pitching prospects to go all in. Going all in like that was dumb, but what's done is done. Starting a rebuild right after emptying the farm would be even dumber.

Scorpion King · Post #10 » by **Scorpion King** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:30 pm

Hopefully Tulo has a good year and they can trade him in the offseason.

He has been garbage for so long. Wish they can get something solid for him

If the Jays are too many games back in July. Everyone should be available for trade except Donaldson and Stroman.

dagger · Post #11 » by **dagger** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:37 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:Starting a rebuild right after emptying the farm would be even dumber.

What would be smart if the Jays are trending well out of playoff contention? Playing .500 or worse ball for another 3-4 seasons until these guys come off the payroll.

I am by no means advocating rebuild now, or in May, but let's say come the deadline we're not going anywhere or likely to? What's the smart play. You can just play out the season and let Jose and/or Edwin walk and take the extra picks. Or you can see what prospect value you can get for them at the deadline when they have the incentive to get rid of the pick compensation which limits their negotiating power somewhat. At the end of the day, you might shorten a rebuild by taking a sure prospect rather than the lesser certainty of what comp picks will bring you. That's the first decision to make, the next decisions will flow from whatever you choose to do with the first.

Lateral Quicks · Post #12 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 4:35 pm

dagger wrote:
Lateral Quicks wrote:Starting a rebuild right after emptying the farm would be even dumber.

What would be smart if the Jays are trending well out of playoff contention? Playing .500 or worse ball for another 3-4 seasons until these guys come off the payroll.

I am by no means advocating rebuild now, or in May, but let's say come the deadline we're not going anywhere or likely to? What's the smart play. You can just play out the season and let Jose and/or Edwin walk and take the extra picks. Or you can see what prospect value you can get for them at the deadline when they have the incentive to get rid of the pick compensation which limits their negotiating power somewhat. At the end of the day, you might shorten a rebuild by taking a sure prospect rather than the lesser certainty of what comp picks will bring you. That's the first decision to make, the next decisions will flow from whatever you choose to do with the first.

The smart play was not to go all in on a single season, but unfortunately that was AA's parting gift.

The smart thing to do now IMO is go for it again one more time, because the windows slams shut after this year. They should be borrowing payroll room from 2017 and 2018 if necessary to take their shot. An extra $10-20M this year would do wonders, but it won't make a meaningful difference in 2017 or 2018 (unless of course practically every single one of our prospects pans out, which never happens).

c3luong · Post #13 » by **c3luong** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 5:30 pm

North_of_Border wrote:How would a Jays Fire Sale look like?

It would look like the Raptors board right now.

Sifu · Post #14 » by **Sifu** » Sun Apr 17, 2016 9:07 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:It would look long and ugly. The farm system is pretty bare, and we wouldn't get a great return for our veteran assets. The time to try for a quick rebuild was prior to last season, or at last year's trade deadline. Instead AA got rid of Norris, Hoffman, and nine other pitching prospects to go all in. Going all in like that was dumb, but what's done is done. Starting a rebuild right after emptying the farm would be even dumber.

I would think both Jose and Edwin would return some great assets in return. They may have expiring contracts but both are elite talent and would in many cases be either the best or second best hitter on any team.

The_Hater · Post #15 » by **The_Hater** » Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:20 pm

North_of_Border wrote:Now don't get me wrong. The season is young. I'm not throwing the towel. This is just for fun.

Considering all the Free Agents to be on the roster, if the Jays are out of it at some point, Shapiro would Sell the house and do a minor rebuild. Build the team in his vision and walk out of Anthopoulos' shadow.

First to go will be Bautista, Edwin, Cecil, Storen, Dickey as they are FAs with some value.... then Shapiro would try to sell Tulo hard. Then Martin..... then after all that, everyone except Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Travis, Pillar would be in play from the MLB roster.

Basically the Jays have the potential to load the farm with blue chip prospects. Rebuild like the Red Sox or Astros young guns were developed.

Your opinions?

Looks pretty much right although Floyd and possibly Chavez would on the list to. I don't think Estrada and Happ would be 100% safe depending on the offers and how they look at the deadline.

cram · Post #16 » by **cram** » Tue Apr 19, 2016 3:41 pm

A fire sale would be dumb.

Better to retool/reload after Bautista and Encarnacion walk. Otherwise we're wasting Donaldson in his prime.

distracted · Post #17 » by **distracted** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:16 am

Bautista for Schwarber. Encarnacion for a SP prospect. Jays compete again in 2017.

The_Hater · Post #18 » by **The_Hater** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:19 am

cram wrote:A fire sale would be dumb.

Better to retool/reload after Bautista and Encarnacion walk. Otherwise we're wasting Donaldson in his prime.

Just because you trade away players at the deadline doesn't mean that you're not going to try putting a winner on the field in 2017. It's just a momentary stockpile of assets and then you use free agency and the winter trade market to retool. That what the Tigers did in 2015 and even the Red Sox had a fire sale the season before their most recent World Series. Trading pending free agents and any questionable contract would pretty much be a no brainer.

Yosemite Dan · Post #19 » by **Yosemite Dan** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:29 am

cram wrote:A fire sale would be dumb.

Better to retool/reload after Bautista and Encarnacion walk. Otherwise we're wasting Donaldson in his prime.

This. We have Donaldson and Tulo (he will eventually hit) in the middle of the line up and Stroman and Sanchez being our young studs. If we lose Jose and EE, we can still trade or sign someone that can take up one of thier spots and if Travis can follow thru on the promise he showed last year then we should still have a decent offense. It may not be an all world offense like it is now but how many contending teams really have that currently? If Stroman and Sanchez become an effective 1-2 punch (quite likely) then we could reload after losing EE and Jose and be a contender as soon as 2018 and for years to come.

North_of_Border · Post #20 » by **North_of_Border** » Sat Apr 23, 2016 1:41 am

I think if things are going bad at a certain point, a fire Sale is too logical not to do. Especially with all the FA we won't be re-sign in anyway.

I truly believe we can not only beef up the farm but also extend our window by keeping some key guys like Donaldson, Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar, Travis, Happ, Estrada and Osuna, plus some smart well thought out additions with the freed up money as a result.

Fire Sale.... to Retool and rebuild on the Go. Extend the window.