Would You Support a True Rebuild

[North_of_Border]

I know the Jays were horrible for decades, but even with all that there was not much of a true rebuild. Jays sucked all those years, but that's because they always tried to bandage together pieces and dream of competing. Though always failing. The only true rebuild was the first few years of JP Ricciardi. That failed too, but was rushed in my opinion.

Would you not like to see the Jays build a foundation that can sustain a winning environment for Years and Years. Rather than the short window we opened with the trades last year. Copy the model of the Cubs and Red Sox or The process the Yankees are just entering.

Such a process would require selling off the stars. No more Donaldson. No more Tulo. No more Martin. And ofcourse, no more Jose or Edwin. These guys would be the pieces that bring back elite prospects. Build a top 5 farm system. And and compete...... after a few years of failure. Yes.

Though it does not have to be a long long rebuild. Look how fast Theo Epstien turned the Cubs around. Or how much the Yankees have progressed already. Or the fact that Boston can finish last but manage to compete a year later. All due to the deep farm.

Would you support this process? Or trust Mark Shapiro to construct the future into his vision?

[vaff87]

1. I would support taking away your thread starting privileges.
2. This is a ridiculous question, given how many fans the Jays have gotten the last two seasons. They would throw that all away if they decided to suck for five years.
3. At least wait until after the season for this stupid thread.

[Schad]

I would, certainly. Doesn't mean we go into 2017 with that intention, but it's a possibility we may have to face in the next couple years. You don't do it unless forced to, though.

Thing is, in baseball it doesn't need to be a five-year process of intentionally sucking. Restocking the system can be pretty damned quick...say, if Edwin and Bautista walked for draft pick compensation and we traded some of the vets for prospects at some point in the fifteen months. Then (assuming you make good on those deals) it's mostly a case of simply ensuring that you aren't skimming the cream off the farm system; you can start trying to build back up pretty much the next day.

[vaff87]

I would, certainly. Doesn't mean we go into 2017 with that intention, but it's a possibility we may have to face in the next couple years. You don't do it unless forced to, though.

Thing is, in baseball it doesn't need to be a five-year process of intentionally sucking. Restocking the system can be pretty damned quick...say, if Edwin and Bautista walked for draft pick compensation and we traded some of the vets for prospects at some point in the fifteen months. Then (assuming you make good on those deals) it's mostly a case of simply ensuring that you aren't skimming the cream off the farm system; you can start trying to build back up pretty much the next day.

I think this is it. You only do it if it makes sense. You don't do it just for the sake of doing it.

[Schad]

I would, certainly. Doesn't mean we go into 2017 with that intention, but it's a possibility we may have to face in the next couple years. You don't do it unless forced to, though.

Thing is, in baseball it doesn't need to be a five-year process of intentionally sucking. Restocking the system can be pretty damned quick...say, if Edwin and Bautista walked for draft pick compensation and we traded some of the vets for prospects at some point in the fifteen months. Then (assuming you make good on those deals) it's mostly a case of simply ensuring that you aren't skimming the cream off the farm system; you can start trying to build back up pretty much the next day.

I think this is it. You only do it if it makes sense. You don't do it just for the sake of doing it.

And you're right...there's really no point in talking about it now. We aren't going to rebuild after this season, though we may avoid the sorts of contracts/prospect-heavy deals that would make a rebuild harder. Which is perfectly fine by me; we really don't need any more $25m+ deals attached to guys in their 30s.

[vaff87]

I would, certainly. Doesn't mean we go into 2017 with that intention, but it's a possibility we may have to face in the next couple years. You don't do it unless forced to, though.

Thing is, in baseball it doesn't need to be a five-year process of intentionally sucking. Restocking the system can be pretty damned quick...say, if Edwin and Bautista walked for draft pick compensation and we traded some of the vets for prospects at some point in the fifteen months. Then (assuming you make good on those deals) it's mostly a case of simply ensuring that you aren't skimming the cream off the farm system; you can start trying to build back up pretty much the next day.

I think this is it. You only do it if it makes sense. You don't do it just for the sake of doing it.

And you're right...there's really no point in talking about it now. We aren't going to rebuild after this season, though we may avoid the sorts of contracts/prospect-heavy deals that would make a rebuild harder. Which is perfectly fine by me; we really don't need any more $25m+ deals attached to guys in their 30s.

Agreed. I think this management team will have an eye on the present and the future. I really like the hire of Ben Cherington as head of player development.

[Schad]

Agreed. I think this management team will have an eye on the present and the future. I really like the hire of Ben Cherington as head of player development.

Same, and ditto their moves at the deadline...improving (if not as much as some would have preferred) while actually improving our farm system was a nice two-way play. If we want to extend our window, that's key; it's also important if we think that we'll have to execute a quick rebuild in a year or two.

[gei]

No.. they never work. People get frustrated and start saying nonsense like "blow it up" - which in 99% of cases leads to a terrible team for many years, and then on a mediocre team for many more years. During the process, interest in the team sinks to 0, and people start asking questions like "is the team viable in Toronto", etc.

Sure there are specific examples of teams that "blew it up" and restocked and grew in to a contender, but that is the exception - not the rule.

We already have a good team. We just need to build on it.

[Lateral Quicks]

Schad is right - they shouldn't go into 2017 planning a lengthy rebuild, but they may be forced into it. The AA era of short term moves sacrificing the future is over.

Their projected rotation next year will be competitive, and with an offensive core of Donaldson, Travis, Tulo and Martin they shouldn't throw in the towel outright. They'll need to find judicious replacements of Bautista and Saunders (both ~1 WAR players this year) and make some key additions in the bullpen. They'll also need at least one more big bat - perhaps EE. The division is most likely out of the question unless Boston somehow implodes, but the wild card could be in play if things go their way.

[The_Hater]

Baseball rebuilds shouldn't take 5 years anyways. You can turn your entire team over and get back to the playoffs in 3 years. Theo Epstein took over a completely dysfunctional Cubs organization with a terrible farm system and had them in the playoffs in 4 years and on top of MLB in 5. Good organizations with payrolls less than the Jays are often taking 1-2 years to retool and then they're back in the playoff race.

[Wo1verine]

You can win + build at the same time if you're willing to spend money.

[Sifu]

Jose and EE are no brainers to offer a QO. But what about Saunders? After the first half, I would say so, but now I wonder if he would even be offered 10 million for one year.

[bluerap23]

I'm still hoping they sign EE so no.
They have a solid core, with an exceptional rotation.

[dagger]

No.. they never work. People get frustrated and start saying nonsense like "blow it up" - which in 99% of cases leads to a terrible team for many years, and then on a mediocre team for many more years. During the process, interest in the team sinks to 0, and people start asking questions like "is the team viable in Toronto", etc.

Sure there are specific examples of teams that "blew it up" and restocked and grew in to a contender, but that is the exception - not the rule.

We already have a good team. We just need to build on it.

If you do anything right, it works. If you do it poorly, it fails.

A couple of years ago, the Cubs were pathetic. The Astros, too. I mean really bad. The Astros stripped naked. Now they are a respectable team with a lot of youth and upside. They should be in playoff consideration for many years. And yes, some other teams that try rebuilding from the bottom suck at it.

Turn to hockey, the Leafs - well you know the story. For the past decade and a half, they wouldn't do a rebuild, but that became an untenable strategy in the salary cap era. Even with someone like Burke, it represented a few of failure - an investment he wasn't willing to make. Too much ego. But finally Shanahan came in, hired the best management team money could buy, and most importantly, reset expectations - basically dumbed things down so fans had no choice but to buy in. It helps that the people Shanny has surrounded himself with have enormous cred behind them. The Leafs have attacked the draft with high picks, and attacked secondary markets like the US colleges and European FAs and are still not promising a rapid turnaround. But a lot fans, I suspect, are going with the process. It helps that season seat holders are not going to give up their rights.

For the Jays, they are accumulating a solid management team. It helps their cred that Cleveland won the AL Central, that Sherrington contributing to this AL East winning Sox team and Saunders gets credit for drafting some of those exciting young players. But right now, expectations remain high. So after the season, whenever it ends, the Jays - assuming Shapiro really wanted a complete rebuild - would have a tough job of re-setting expectations. Fans won't be charitable at first if the three big free agents all walk, but from a rebuild perspective, getting a couple of comp picks, showing a willingness to maybe sign a Cuban or Asian player not subject (yet) to the "International" signing rules, would help rebuild the farm system. But the move that would really accelerate things would be dealing off players like Tulo or one of the older starting pitchers (Happ or Estrada). They might get you a good prospect at an advanced level, so that you might promote that player within 2017 toggle fans that "hope" alternative.

[dagger]

Schad is right - they shouldn't go into 2017 planning a lengthy rebuild, but they may be forced into it. The AA era of short term moves sacrificing the future is over.

Their projected rotation next year will be competitive, and with an offensive core of Donaldson, Travis, Tulo and Martin they shouldn't throw in the towel outright. They'll need to find judicious replacements of Bautista and Saunders (both ~1 WAR players this year) and make some key additions in the bullpen. They'll also need at least one more big bat - perhaps EE. The division is most likely out of the question unless Boston somehow implodes, but the wild card could be in play if things go their way.

That's a very plausible scenario for next season, but it's certainly not a rebuild. And when you consider the number of aging assets you asking to remain a fringy wildcard contender, is it smart, or just self-serving. A true rebuild to lay in a great young team that would compete sustainably for several years would suggest not wasting more of the asset value in these older players, but trying to move at least one or two of them for higher end prospects. I mean, what's the point of being an 85-win team on the playoff fringe but using another year of say, Happ, who has built up a bit of trade value as a highly dependable starter on a good contract? Why not realize some of that asset value to fuel a stronger, faster rebuild? Same for Tulo. Maybe pay half his salary or take on some deadweight money to get a better prospect return? Instead of Happ, stretch out Biagini. Instead of Tulo, suffer Goins for a year. So the Jays will be a 75 win team, but by 2018 there should be some high end prospects reaching the team, and by 2019, we might put ourselves in a position to compete for the division.

Keep in mind that the Yankees plan to be big players in free agency, this winter and especially next, and with their youth core, they expect to be a formidable team. The Sox have more prospects in the MLBPipeline 100 than we do even with the guys they have promoted.

The bottom line is this. The AL East is going to get tougher to win, and this iteration of the Jays is going to get worse. The writing is on the wall.

[AreBe]

No.. they never work. People get frustrated and start saying nonsense like "blow it up" - which in 99% of cases leads to a terrible team for many years, and then on a mediocre team for many more years. During the process, interest in the team sinks to 0, and people start asking questions like "is the team viable in Toronto", etc.

Sure there are specific examples of teams that "blew it up" and restocked and grew in to a contender, but that is the exception - not the rule.

We already have a good team. We just need to build on it.

100% agree!
We have the BEST PITCHING IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

You do not blow it up with the best pitching in the AL, That is nuts. Nuts, nuts nuts!
http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/league/al

Further - How did the Vince Carter trade go?

It came out of nowhere on a Friday afternoon. The Raptors had traded Vince Carter to the Nets for what became known as trinkets and baubles: Alonzo Mourning, who had yet to have his kidney transplant surgery; Eric Williams and Aaron Williams, neither of whom were critical to the Nets present or future and two draft picks who turned into Joey Graham and Renaldo Balkman, the latter having been sent to the Knicks along with Jalen Rose in a later salary dump.

http://www.netsdaily.com/2014/12/18/7414691/ten-years-after-raptors-look-back-at-vince-carter-trade

[LLJ]

We thought we were gonna rebuild back when JP left, but then Jose and EE came out of nowhere as elite hitters. The Jays have been very lucky with being blessed with many great individual players over the years. Which makes the fact that they had been out of the playoffs so long so frustrating.

[The_Hater]

Jose and EE are no brainers to offer a QO. But what about Saunders? After the first half, I would say so, but now I wonder if he would even be offered 10 million for one year.

I think he showed enough that he's worth bringing back at that price. His poor 2nd half actually turned him into a solid buy low candidate instead of being grossly overpaid based on one solid and healthy season.

The problem is, most fans are generally 'what have you done for me lately'. Hence the reason that everyone wanted Price back and now want Edwin back regardless of their age and price tag. Hence the reason why some people wanted to trade Travis in order to make room for Goins last winter. I think both Saunders and Jose could end up being free agent bargains this winter while Edwin is about to sign a contract that is going to look ugly, quickly.

[AreBe]

When is the last time a Toronto team rebuild was not a SNAFU of immense proportions? It will be a self- inflicted gunshot wound in the head, not the foot.

We should rebuild with the vigor the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees do - and this was the first year in 20 years that the Yankees were sellers at the trade deadline - let's learn and emulate the Yankees by rebuilding every 20 years.

We have the best pitching staff in the AL.

We have a bunch of young players at low salary We are going to be selling out at home - I am ok with raising prices to compensate for falling dollar.

I am ok with the JAys making the playoffs and watching them do so from the comfort of my own home and have a preference for that over easily being able to afford tickets to a lousy team in an empty stadium.

[Rapcity_11]

When is the last time a Toronto team rebuild was not a SNAFU of immense proportions? It will be a self- inflicted gunshot wound in the head, not the foot.

What other Toronto teams have done or not done has absolutely no bearing on the Jays.

We should rebuild with the vigor the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees do - and this was the first year in 20 years that the Yankees were sellers at the trade deadline - let's learn and emulate the Yankees by rebuilding every 20 years.

We have the best pitching staff in the AL.

We have a bunch of young players at low salary We are going to be selling out at home - I am ok with raising prices to compensate for falling dollar.

That actually isn't true. Arguably the biggest issue facing the Jays going forward is the lack of (good) young players at low salary. Travis, Stroman, Osuna, Pillar...and? With very little in the high minors coming soon.