Building a Dominant Bullpen: Future

[North_of_Border]

I was a huge fan of making Roberto Osuna a starter next year. He could be an Ace. And then Joe Biagini looked like very high upside starter for next year. I though the Jays should trade a veteran and make these guys starters..... I mean relivers are failed starters or veterans, right? Like Brett Cecil for example.

Maybe not any more though.

If you look at the team's making it to the World Series recently. They are developing star pitchers as Relivers. Osuna could be a our dominant closer for years to come and Biagini the reliable workhorse, Andrew Miller lite.

I mean you could argue that Sanchez was being wasted as a reliver and now is a star starter, yes. Same goes for a Stroman, who was drafted as a reliever. Though, it's the fact that we have those two guys that we can keep Osuna and Biagini as Relivers.

I want to see the future Jays built around a Star bullpen. That's the way Baseball has evolved into now. Jays need to follow suit.

Signing a whole bullpen worth of star relivers is unrealistic and expensive. We need to build from within.

You have your two young aces in Sanchez and Stroman. Lock up one of Estrada or Happ or Liriano in the offseason. Two open spots for the farm hands to compete for in the near future. And your set.

Build a star rotation with star shut down guys.

No?

[MavCarter]

Agreed

[emptytheclip]

Just look at how blue Jays are effected by Cleveland's bullpen. If they trail by the 6th inning it's basically game over, which forces the lineup to be extremely aggressive in the first few innings.

It's a huge luxury to have two dominant bullpen guys like Miller and Allen that can combine for 3 to 4 innings / 40-60 pitches every night and know the other team won't score.

But at the end of the day, bullpen guys don't matter if your starter gives up multiple runs before they have a chance to play. That's why top end starters will always be paid more than any other pitcher.

To spend the payroll wisely, you'll want as many young studs in the rotation as possible, because effective relievers like Hawkins (2015) and Grilli (2016) and even Biagini (rule 5) can be acquired relatively cheaply.

For the blue jays, they essentially have a starting rotation set with Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Liriano. So they can definitely keep Osuna and Biagini as relievers if they want to.

They'll eventually look at Sean Reid-Foley in the farm system as a 6th starter and don't sleep on Danny Barnes either as a setup guy.

Jon Harris and T.J. Zeuch might eventually get a chance, but more likely to be used as trade commodity at this point with their current rotation depth.

[MavCarter]

Just look at how blue Jays are effected by Cleveland's bullpen. If they trail by the 6th inning it's basically game over, which forces the lineup to be extremely aggressive in the first few innings.

It's a huge luxury to have two dominant bullpen guys like Miller and Allen that can combine for 3 to 4 innings / 40-60 pitches every night and know the other team won't score.

But at the end of the day, bullpen guys don't matter if your starter gives up multiple runs before they have a chance to play. That's why top end starters will always be paid more than any other pitcher.

To spend the payroll wisely, you'll want as many young studs in the rotation as possible, because effective relievers like Hawkins (2015) and Grilli (2016) and even Biagini (rule 5) can be acquired relatively cheaply.

For the blue jays, they essentially have a starting rotation set with Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Liriano. So they can definitely keep Osuna and Biagini as relievers if they want to.

They'll eventually look at Sean Reid-Foley in the farm system as a 6th starter and don't sleep on Danny Barnes either as a setup guy

Im not really familiar with our prospects, how good is sean reid-foley? I've heard about him but don't know much. When do you think he'll be ready to come up?

[North_of_Border]

If the Blue Jays decide they can't afford to resign all their star sluggers and they change their whole philosophy for the coming years...... this is the year to sign a big Shut Down arm. There are a lot of these guys on the market. It will be expensive though. Yet cheaper than a big slugger

However, if you can add a stud arm to the late innings and combine it with Osuna in the 9th. That's a great start to a new philosophy.



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[emptytheclip]

Still a work in progress but he's still at the tender age of 21. Started the year at class-A lansing lugnuts and got promoted to Dunedin this year.

Will eventually have to prove himself in AA, the class where prospects get baptized into real minor league stud competition.
If he can succeed there for a period then he will continue to move up, but most likely Blue Jays won't rush him and we won't see him till 2018.

He's not quite the prospect that Sanchez and Stroman were. Maybe closer to Hutchison / Norris / Graveman

Edit: Conner Greene most likely will make a debut sooner

[Sticks]

Aroldis Chapman please !

Plus another lefty specialist ( someone like Cecil, before he sucked)

[emptytheclip]

Yes we really need more lefties in the bullpen.
Would love Chapman but unrealistic.. Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox would load a truck of cash on his front lawn before he even picks up a call from a Shapiro.

[johanliebert]

andrew miller lite lmao. biagini is proof you can find lighting in a bottle with relievers. how many guys have great seasons than cant find hte strike zone a year later.

[The_Hater]

I don't think building a dominant bullpen always helps teams get into the playoffs. You can't throw your top 3 guys every day and if your starting pitching isn't handing them leads then it doesn't always lead to win. The Yankees had those 3 studs this season and traded 2 of them at the deadline. i think having a deep starting staff is more important.

Where I think it does help is in the playoffs when teams get all those extra days off. Then you can throw your 3 bullpen studs virtually every game like Cleveland is doing. Like KC did last year. I think Cleveland did it the right way, they waited until they were a virtual lock for the playoffs and then traded for Miller.

[Raps in 4]

Why not both? Bullpen pitching is the easiest role to fill on a team. You never leave guys in there if they have the potential to be successful starters.

[Rapcity_11]

I don't think building a dominant bullpen always helps teams get into the playoffs. You can't throw your top 3 guys every day and if your starting pitching isn't handing them leads then it doesn't always lead to win. The Yankees had those 3 studs this season and traded 2 of them at the deadline. i think having a deep starting staff is more important.

Where I think it does help is in the playoffs when teams get all those extra days off. Then you can throw your 3 bullpen studs virtually every game like Cleveland is doing. Like KC did last year. I think Cleveland did it the right way, they waited until they were a virtual lock for the playoffs and then traded for Miller.

Bingo. And it's pretty clear the Jays are going to battle for the playoffs at best. Can't be giving away RS wins in that case.

[sule]

I'd like to see the Jays push Osuna to play in the Dominican Leagues or Mexican Leagues for a partial stint this offseason, and see how long he can go. Get a chance to see him stretch out a bit and figure out if he's still got the juice to be a starter. If his arm has the stamina, maybe we look to give him a couple spot starts next year, and work on him slowly all season for the year after.

We can rebuild the pen, but I don't want to see them digging through the trash like they have the last two years. Sure, you may find a diamond-in-the-rough or two, but it also ends up costing us games early in the season that we may or may not be able to make up. Sign a few consistent vets and fill the rest of the bullpen with our most ready prospects or throw-ins from trades.

[Schad]

If you look at the team's making it to the World Series recently. They are developing star pitchers as Relivers. Osuna could be a our dominant closer for years to come and Biagini the reliable workhorse, Andrew Miller lite.

Find me some examples of this, because I think that you're making statements for which you have zero evidence. Let's look at Cleveland's bullpen, shall we?

Cody Allen - was a 16th round draft pick, and not a guy that fell on bonus demands, either. Was developed as a reliever for the simple reason that he wasn't anything else, surprised people by not only making the majors, but being very good from the 'pen.

Bryan Shaw - failed starting prospect that got moved to the bullpen by Arizona. Picked up as a secondary piece in the stunningly bad trade that brought Bauer to the Indians.

Dan Otero - purchased off waivers from the Phillies this past offseason. I repeat: he was considered too bad for the Phillies a few months ago.

Jeff Manship - was a notoriously bad reliever for several years, spent most of his time in AAA as a possible injury replacement. Suddenly learned how to pitch at age 30.

Zach McAllister - failed starting prospect, moved to the 'pen after three uneven years in the rotation.

Andrew Miller - former top pick who was awful as a starter. And god, did teams try...over five years, he logged 66 starts and posted an ERA approaching 6. Boston picked him up for a nothing prospect after his second failed stint in a rotation, at which point he failed again with the Sox, who finally abandoned that and stuck him in the bullpen.

Where are the teams intentionally developing star pitchers as relievers there? It looks like every bullpen to me: a college reliever who was overlooked but came good, a couple guys who sucked in rotations before establishing themselves as relievers, and a couple outright reclamation projects.



And that's the problem with saying "oh hey we should build a dominant bullpen". There's a lot of luck involved in doing so...nobody is insane enough to stick a bunch of their top pitching prospects in relief unless they're fairly sure they cannot start, in part because there's a decent chance that they'll be outperformed in the role by some guy who was the league's worst starter a year ago, or was languishing in someone's farm system awaiting a waiver claim or Rule 5 pick.

If you want a homegrown, high-calibre bullpen, don't push your top prospects out there...wait until the second-tier ones fail. That's the underrated element of Anthopolous' trades: there were a lot of lesser-rated, big-armed starters shipped out that are the type who stand a pretty good chance of being relief weapons if they can't hack it in the rotation.

[Sifu]

I think of more value than building a dominant bullpen is using the bullpen more effectively based on leverage index and where in the order the opposing team is.

For example, Grilli is our 8th inning guy. But what if he is facing the 2,3,4 hitters of the opposing team, leaving Osuna to face the lesser lights down in the order?

Francona has broken that meta by bringing in Miller early and dousing those small fires before they become big. This deleverages later innings and puts less pressure on other bp arms.

[Patman]

Why not both? Bullpen pitching is the easiest role to fill on a team. You never leave guys in there if they have the potential to be successful starters.

Bang for the buck IMO. A lot of times, you pay more for a 4th/5th starter than a solid bullpen arm. The importance of the bullpen has been steadily increasing.

I think the model that more teams will build towards is:

- 2 or 3 solid starters that can take the game to the 7th or 8th inning
- 2 or 3 mediocre starters that are just good enough to get through the batting line-up twice, before turning it over to the pen
- a very good closer that can pitch well to both lefties and righties
- a few solid bullpen arms that have good platoon splits (i.e. situational pitchers)

Batting line-ups are MUCH more effective against a starting pitcher the 3rd time around the order. Some teams don't even let you get that far before turning it over to the pen.

[Patman]

I don't think building a dominant bullpen always helps teams get into the playoffs. You can't throw your top 3 guys every day and if your starting pitching isn't handing them leads then it doesn't always lead to win. The Yankees had those 3 studs this season and traded 2 of them at the deadline. i think having a deep starting staff is more important.

Where I think it does help is in the playoffs when teams get all those extra days off. Then you can throw your 3 bullpen studs virtually every game like Cleveland is doing. Like KC did last year. I think Cleveland did it the right way, they waited until they were a virtual lock for the playoffs and then traded for Miller.

Good points. There's still value in an innings-eater like RA Dickey.

[StopitLeo]

Most relief pitchers are very inconsistent season to season. It's ofteb why they aren't starters, their inability to repeat their delivery. Fortunately, Osuna has been very good. I like Cecil but he doesn't seem to find his curveballs and control until the end of the season (ugh, maybe it is injuries). Biagini was a revelation so hopefully he can return as the multi-inning guy and his stuff is good enough that the league doesn't "figure him out" after he burst on the scene this year.

Building from within might be tough as we don't have much to work with. I would like to give Barnes some more work. Tepera has showed he can't be counted on so we have to let that ship sail. The big thing we need is another lefty that is not Aaron Loup imo.

This year we were lucky to find Biagini and pick up Grilli and Benoit. Not sure we can count on cobbling together a decent pen during the season. But we have bigger problems with the outfield.

[Patman]

Most relief pitchers are very inconsistent season to season. It's ofteb why they aren't starters, their inability to repeat their delivery. Fortunately, Osuna has been very good. I like Cecil but he doesn't seem to find his curveballs and control until the end of the season (ugh, maybe it is injuries). Biagini was a revelation so hopefully he can return as the multi-inning guy and his stuff is good enough that the league doesn't "figure him out" after he burst on the scene this year.

Building from within might be tough as we don't have much to work with. I would like to give Barnes some more work. Tepera has showed he can't be counted on so we have to let that ship sail. The big thing we need is another lefty that is not Aaron Loup imo.

This year we were lucky to find Biagini and pick up Grilli and Benoit. Not sure we can count on cobbling together a decent pen during the season. But we have bigger problems with the outfield.

Agreed. I think building a bullpen will be about depth. It's hard to develop star relievers, a lot of the times they're just stumbled upon. Osuna is reliable, which is a great start. What we should try to build is a varied bullpen. Righties and lefties. Power pitchers and control pitchers.

[The_Hater]

Most relief pitchers are very inconsistent season to season. It's ofteb why they aren't starters, their inability to repeat their delivery. Fortunately, Osuna has been very good. I like Cecil but he doesn't seem to find his curveballs and control until the end of the season (ugh, maybe it is injuries). Biagini was a revelation so hopefully he can return as the multi-inning guy and his stuff is good enough that the league doesn't "figure him out" after he burst on the scene this year.

Building from within might be tough as we don't have much to work with. I would like to give Barnes some more work. Tepera has showed he can't be counted on so we have to let that ship sail. The big thing we need is another lefty that is not Aaron Loup imo.

This year we were lucky to find Biagini and pick up Grilli and Benoit. Not sure we can count on cobbling together a decent pen during the season. But we have bigger problems with the outfield.

Good points. Most RP's are inconsistent, which outlines the problem of this approach. Look at Drew Storan. Look at Cecil this season compared to last. Look at the before and after lines for Grilli and Benoit this season. And this is why so many so many teams are able to patch together a really good bullpen on the fly as well. And cheaply. The Jays did that this season and our pen was dominant in the playoffs.

Everyone looks at Andrew Miller now and sees the best RP in MLB but this is a guy who flamed out as a SP and had control issues for several years as an RP. Now he's extremely dominant but he's could be one sore elbow from losing his control again.