Possible Blue Jays Team Post EE/Bautista (Long Read)

[jalenrose#5]

I'll be honest, Edwin Encarnacion is going to get paid this offseason and when I say paid, I mean PAID. I think EE will easily get $24 million dollars a season which was his and Bautista's total cost for this season.

The Boston Red Sox are probably going to be high on Encarnacion as well as a team like the Baltimore Orioles, who could possibly be losing RF/DH Mark Trumbo this offseason.

As for Bautista, I think his fate was already sealed when he said he's worth $30 million a season and isn't giving the Jays a hometown discount.

With the new regime in town, I feel like the Jays will be taking on a more pitching heavy approach to their team with an emphasis on contact hitters who strikeout a whole lot less than the power hitting players that the Jays used to fill their lineup with. Sprinkle in some speed and you've got yourself a good foundation to build upon.

Free Agency Options

Hitters-
OF Josh Reddick- I feel like Reddick fits in like a glove with Toronto. Great defender with an above average arm, Reddick would give the Jays an upgrade defensively in RF. He can also platoon with Upton Jr and provide Toronto with a decent OF rotation. He has a tendancy to only bat about 350 times a year, so he might get injured, so having Upton as insurance helps. I feel like he'll command a 15 million dollar salary.

OF/DH Matt Holliday- He's struggled to stay healthy the past few seasons, but one thing he does well is hit. Regarded as a run producer, he's capable of hitting 20HR and driving in 90+ runners a season. He made 17 million last season, however I feel like an AAS of around 12-14 million seems likely for Holliday. His OF defence leaves much to be desired, but he'd be a great DH option for the Jays. He's well past his prime, but for 1 year, it could be worth a gamble to see if he can regain some of his .382 OBP career form. He only hit .246 last year and had a .322 OBP, well below his career average.

OF/DH- Carlos Beltran- He's 39 going on 40 and will likely play for 1 or 2 more seasons. He can hit, that's one thing he's great at. Being a switch hitter, he'll give the Jays a more well rounded lineup. He hit 29 HR and 93 RBI this season at age 39. Jose Bautista at age 36 only wished to put up those numbers. Also another interest stat, in his 18 year career Beltran has only struck out over 100 times 7 times. Another good 1 year option that will cost the Jays about 15-18 million.

OF Angel Pagan- A left handed bat which can hit at the top of the order. A good table setter who has a career OBP of .330. He's never played in the AL which leads me to believe he's got more potential offensively than some think. At the age of 35, his best days are likely behind him. He got 15-20 SB potential and provides the Jays with a top of the order bat with championship experience. Injuries may be a concern. Look for him to make around 10-13 million next year.

1B/DH Kendrys Morales- At the age of 33, same age as Edwin, he'd probably be an ideal replacement. Switch hitter with championship experience, Morales would give the Jays a viable 25 HR 100 RBI run producer who should hit above .260 and get on base at a clip of .330+ (career average). He has only played 5 full seasons in the Majors and I feel like he's got plenty left in the tank. He hit 30 HR this year, but had a down year as he struck out more..however most of the Royals had a down year at the plate.

My best options- 1B/DH Kendrys Morales (LH/RH), OF Josh Reddick (LH), OF Angel Pagan (LH). I feel like it would be smart of the Jays to sign all three to be honest with you, however the more likely option is signing two, if that's the case Morales and Reddick.

Bullpen (Cecil, Grilli, Benoit all free agents)

I'll just list who the Jays will/should sign. I feel like they need a set-up guy and a LOOGY.

Resign Grilli and Cecil- I think they can easily be brought back and I'd like to see them back. A great option personally in 7th as a duo. Grilli is dominant against righties as is Cecil against lefties.

Boone Logan- A big lefty who gets lefties out effectively. .142 AVG this year with a OPS of just under .450. He gets more hittable against righties which leads me to believe he'll be best used in a 6th or 7th inning role with Joe Biagini. Looking at a salary of around 6-8 million.

Brad Ziegler- I feel like Ziegler would fit in wonderfully with the Jays. An extreme ground ball pitcher who throws funny, he'd instantly give the Jays some much needed depth in the pen. Likely looking at a salary of 6-8 million a year.

Lineup

LF Angel Pagan/Carrera
2B Devon Travis/Goins
3B Josh Donaldson
DH Kendrys Morales
SS Troy Tulowitzki
RF Josh Reddick/Upton Jr
C Russ Martin/Navarro
1B Justin Smoak
CF Kevin Pillar


Starters

Sanchez/Estrada/Happ/Stroman/Liriano

Relievers

Osuna/Ziegler/Grilli/Cecil/Biagini/Logan/Tepera

Adding Morales, Reddick and Pagan will likely cost the Jays about 36 million (what Jose/Dickey/EE cost this year). Add in Ziegler, Logan, Cecil and Grilli, you're looking at another 14 million at least in extra salary. (Grilli and Cecil made about 7 combined million)

I highly doubt the Jays will add that much salary, which leads me to think a starter like Liriano could be dangled for prospects. Just a hunch though, it might not even happen.

My feelings are this team will compete for a title next year if they follow through with this plan I laid out before you. Adding contact hitters in Pagan, Morales and Reddick will instantly make the Jays offence my dynamic. They all can hit LH as well.

Adding a LOOGY the team desperately needed and a RP to replace Benoit in Ziegler is huge as well. The bullpen is 6 deep (at least) and the starters will keep the team in the game nightly.

Thoughts?

[Yogz_GM]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

[Schad]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

We are not "the top baseball market in the MLB". Aren't even close, even with the Jays' vertical integration.

Not that it matters; it's a silly point that you're making. The Dodgers have revenues well in excess of $400m, probably not far off $500m this season. And in the offseason, one of their players hit free agency coming off a season in which he pitched 222 IP with an ERA of 1.66...and when Arizona bid crazy-high, the Dodgers let him walk. It was, unquestionably, the right decision.

No matter how much money a team has, the decision-making should look like this: if I will get more in value from this player than I am paying in salary, make the deal. If I will not, pass on the deal. The calculus is the same with a payroll of $250m as it is with one of $75m, Maximize the resources that you have. If someone throws big money and/or crazy years at Encarnacion, you walk away. If you think that Jose's decline is real, and he gets more than the QO, you walk away. And then you use the money for more productive purposes.

[The_Hater]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

The most likely scenerio this winter is we sign neither and the chances of signing both are virtually zero.

[Parataxis]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

We are not "the top baseball market in the MLB". Aren't even close, even with the Jays' vertical integration.

Not that it matters; it's a silly point that you're making. The Dodgers have revenues well in excess of $400m, probably not far off $500m this season. And in the offseason, one of their players hit free agency coming off a season in which he pitched 222 IP with an ERA of 1.66...and when Arizona bid crazy-high, the Dodgers let him walk. It was, unquestionably, the right decision.

No matter how much money a team has, the decision-making should look like this: if I will get more in value from this player than I am paying in salary, make the deal. If I will not, pass on the deal. The calculus is the same with a payroll of $250m as it is with one of $75m, Maximize the resources that you have. If someone throws big money and/or crazy years at Encarnacion, you walk away. If you think that Jose's decline is real, and he gets more than the QO, you walk away. And then you use the money for more productive purposes.

I think EE is absolutely giving Jays value for money. He's putting butts in seats, selling merch, and garnering fan interest - that is $$$ for the Jays; money they wouldn't have if they let him walk.

[Patman]

Solid plan. I'm all for getting more lefty bats.

[The_Hater]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

We are not "the top baseball market in the MLB". Aren't even close, even with the Jays' vertical integration.

Not that it matters; it's a silly point that you're making. The Dodgers have revenues well in excess of $400m, probably not far off $500m this season. And in the offseason, one of their players hit free agency coming off a season in which he pitched 222 IP with an ERA of 1.66...and when Arizona bid crazy-high, the Dodgers let him walk. It was, unquestionably, the right decision.

No matter how much money a team has, the decision-making should look like this: if I will get more in value from this player than I am paying in salary, make the deal. If I will not, pass on the deal. The calculus is the same with a payroll of $250m as it is with one of $75m, Maximize the resources that you have. If someone throws big money and/or crazy years at Encarnacion, you walk away. If you think that Jose's decline is real, and he gets more than the QO, you walk away. And then you use the money for more productive purposes.

I think EE is absolutely giving Jays value for money. He's putting butts in seats, selling merch, and garnering fan interest - that is $$$ for the Jays; money they wouldn't have if they let him walk.

Edwin wasn't putting "butts in seats" until the Jay's started winning in 2015. The correlation is with winning, not with marketing star players. Also I'm pretty certain that JD is the most marketable player on the team.

[zilby]

I'm definitely in on one of Reddick/Pagan. If we can get Pagan for something like 2 years and $14M, I'd definitely be interested. He gives us a scrappy leadoff hitter that we really missed all of this year. Reddick could likely come cheaper than $16M AAV, he wasn't good with the Dodgers post-trade and has been used sparingly all playoffs. I'm also wondering what the Reds feel like doing with Joey Votto and if Shatkins have their eyes on him.

The rotation is already set for next year with Sanchez/Estrada/Happ/Stroman/Frankie, and the BP has Biagini/Grilli/Osuna/Cecil for sure. Would like one or two more quality depth pieces and then the 7th guy can be Tepera or Loup or whomever.

That in mind, you have to go after Edwin and make sure he's back. Jose will depend on whether he's willing to relent from his ridiculous negotiation tactics, otherwise I think he's good as gone. Between Jose/EE/Dickey/Thole, it's $38M off the books. Since we don't need Dickey or Thole for next year and they're likely gone, we can maybe fit 2-3 high-quality players in there. Maybe divy up $23-24M for Eddy, $6-10M for Pagan/Reddick, and the rest for some bullpen arms. Reddick/Pagan in RF with a Zeke/Upton platoon in LF may be viable to start the season before exploring options at the deadline.

[Strav]

slim pickings in FA: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html, although there is some decent pitching to be had.

Agree that we need a true leadoff hitter, but the first priority would be to sign EE. Rest of the offense-tweaking can be accomplished in trades.

[johanliebert]

most the fa options you mentioned are either the same age as EE/jose or barely younger.

i don't understand how you had a top 10 offence this season..top3 last year and ya'll want to rebuild it all? They play in the skydive and al east where there are an abundance of sand box parks...unlike the NL so its not a league where you build around spray hitters.

If you lose both those guys you will have to replace that power. But that doesn't mean the team doesn't need another lefty batter and some more pure hitters.

[Schad]

I think EE is absolutely giving Jays value for money. He's putting butts in seats, selling merch, and garnering fan interest - that is $$$ for the Jays; money they wouldn't have if they let him walk.

He won't be doing any of those things if he isn't living up to the contract, though. Certainly not to the extent that $25m a year worth of players who ARE worth it would be.

[Yogz_GM]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

We are not "the top baseball market in the MLB". Aren't even close, even with the Jays' vertical integration.

Not that it matters; it's a silly point that you're making. The Dodgers have revenues well in excess of $400m, probably not far off $500m this season. And in the offseason, one of their players hit free agency coming off a season in which he pitched 222 IP with an ERA of 1.66...and when Arizona bid crazy-high, the Dodgers let him walk. It was, unquestionably, the right decision.

No matter how much money a team has, the decision-making should look like this: if I will get more in value from this player than I am paying in salary, make the deal. If I will not, pass on the deal. The calculus is the same with a payroll of $250m as it is with one of $75m, Maximize the resources that you have. If someone throws big money and/or crazy years at Encarnacion, you walk away. If you think that Jose's decline is real, and he gets more than the QO, you walk away. And then you use the money for more productive purposes.

Are the Toronto BlueJays a top 5 market team?
http://www.bluejays3000.com/3000/2016/10/22/the-question-of-worth-a-bluejay-fan-perspective

Schad, would like to hear your opinion.

[Schad]

Are the Toronto BlueJays a top 5 market team?
http://www.bluejays3000.com/3000/2016/10/22/the-question-of-worth-a-bluejay-fan-perspective

Schad, would like to hear your opinion.

No, they are not. No matter how one massages the Jays' impact on the bottom line, you cannot approach the sort of annual revenues that the top teams garner, which are well over $500m CAD a year. To believe that they do, you would have to assume that the Jays' rights are worth in excess of $250m CAD per annum on the open market, and yeah...that isn't even remotely close to being true. Only one team is even in the same galaxy as that figure, and that's the ludicrous deal that the Dodgers signed, which has been an unmitigated disaster from the day it was signed.

And that's the flip side of the media rights element. What we gain in vertical integration, we lose in . Regional sports networks overpay on deals because it provides them leverage when negotiating with carriers; until recently it was assumed that an RSN holding the team's games could guarantee carriage with all of the service providers in that market while charging a high price, until it became clear that it wasn't quite the trump card some had assumed (see; the Dodgers and Astros failures). Rogers has no such incentive; beyond their own broadcasting, Sportsnet has a diverse enough group of rights-holdings that they could air checkers instead of Jays games and still be carried by every major provider.

Further, the carriage fees aren't anywhere close to being the same. YES Network, as an example, charged an average of $5.36 USD per household; Sportsnet charged about $1.78 USD, a third as much as the Yankees with considerably more non-Jays content. The majority charge at least double what Sportsnet does, because that's the media environment in Canada.

Take everything together, and we're probably around the fringes of the second tier (the first tier would be the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox, whose revenues are in the $400m+ USD range; the Cubs may well join them shortly). Below them are the Mets, Angels, Cardinals, Natinals, Rangers, and perhaps us. Coincidentally, I'm sure, but this is about where our team payroll falls in leaguewide standing.

[-MetA4-]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

Did it ever run across your mind that signing a clearly declined 36 year old hitter, and a 34 year old hitter who very likely won't live up to his likely over-inflated contract, simply aren't smart baseball moves for this team? Believe it or not, but winning baseball puts asses in seats, and winning baseball isn't built on emotion-driven decisions.

[Yogz_GM]

Um no. We are signing Jose or EE or both. If the top baseball market in the MLB can't sign their own players then they will be losing a lot of fans and $$. We are not a middle of the road market team. I really wish ppl wouldn't assume the jays and Rogers have to play moneyball when RCI just increased media profits 15% and saved hundreds of millions on a discounted TV deal. IMHO

Did it ever run across your mind that signing a clearly declined 36 year old hitter, and a 34 year old hitter who very likely won't live up to his likely over-inflated contract, simply aren't smart baseball moves for this team? Believe it or not, but winning baseball puts asses in seats, and winning baseball isn't built on emotion-driven decisions.

David Ortiz was 40 this year. We need a leader in the clubhouse. It could be possible he had an off year. Age isn't everything.

[Schad]

David Ortiz was 40 this year. We need a leader in the clubhouse. It could be possible he had an off year. Age isn't everything.

David Ortiz is a player. Baseball features many hundreds of players. Most of those players, particularly power hitters as it turns out, do not age like David Ortiz.

[-MetA4-]

David Ortiz was 40 this year. We need a leader in the clubhouse. It could be possible he had an off year. Age isn't everything.

Congrats; you've named the first guy since Barry Bonds to somehow remain an elite hitter at that age. David Ortiz is an exception, not the norm. You need a leader in the clubhouse? The guy who cries about "circumstances" preventing them from winning the second things go wrong, and then makes stupid comments about an opposing pitcher despite the fact that he himself had been completely invisible in the series? Why would you assume he had an "off year" when baseball history would tell you that very very few hitters get to 36 years of age without seeing noticeable decline in production? Just watching him play it is obvious that he can no longer punish pitches which he'd crush during his prime. Right now the only thing keeping him "good" offensively is his elite walk rate; but we'll see how long that lasts if pitchers watch his series against the Indians and notice that he was almost completely nullified if you just constantly pitch him away.

[Patman]

slim pickings in FA: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html, although there is some decent pitching to be had.

Agree that we need a true leadoff hitter, but the first priority would be to sign EE. Rest of the offense-tweaking can be accomplished in trades.

Our minor league cupboard is quite bare after AA went all in. Hopefully some of our depth players (Goins, Pompey) can improve their bats a little bit so that they have trade value.

[The_Hater]

slim pickings in FA: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html, although there is some decent pitching to be had.

Agree that we need a true leadoff hitter, but the first priority would be to sign EE. Rest of the offense-tweaking can be accomplished in trades.

Our minor league cupboard is quite bare after AA went all in. Hopefully some of our depth players (Goins, Pompey) can improve their bats a little bit so that they have trade value.

The time to trade Goins was right after he had 2 solid offensive months late in 2015, not after hitting under .200 in as a 28 year old. Can't imagine he has any trade value. The injury prone Travis might be the guy with value to deal.

[Raps in 4]

David Ortiz was 40 this year. We need a leader in the clubhouse. It could be possible he had an off year. Age isn't everything.

Congrats; you've named the first guy since Barry Bonds to somehow remain an elite hitter at that age.

They've remained elite into old age because of PEDs.

Unless we plan to put EE on the juice, he won't enjoy the same career longevity as those two.

Now, given his body shape, nagging injuries, and career trajectory so far it's very possible that EE is already juicing, but we don't know that as outside observers. It's also not a foregone conclusion that every juicer will remain elite into their late 30s.