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We need to realise by now that we are not contenders. We could continue are pretenders and dream on but will get nowhere.

I know we won't get peak value at the time because teams are already set. But say half way through the season, do we cash in on the likes of Donaldson, Happ, Estrada, Martin, Tulo, Liriano, Morales, Pearce? Think of the return! Trading these guys could put us years ahead into a rebuild. Excellerating us to a top 5 farm.

Time for a painful few seasons. But do it the rite way, like Shapiro did in Cleveland.

No?

I'm for it. I don't think our hitting will be good enough.

But we can wait for the first quarter or half of the season to make that call.

Logically it would make sense. The problem is that Rogers won't do it. They want to extend the window of competition so they can keep counting their money. Too bad they hired a president for a rebuild (back when they were a 500 team) that has very little experience signing players in free agency. Now they are stuck in the middle. If they really are going to compete it is completely ridiculous to let EE walk to CLEVELAND of all places on a value deal. Even after signing Morales and Pearce. They should have signed him and looked for a way to move one of those weaker players at the deadline. At least they get a pick.

Yes. The question we should be asking though is, would Rogers support a rebuild? They let the Leafs rebuild, but that's only because they attract high viewership/ticket sales no matter how bad they are. The Jays and Raptors don't.

My guess is Rogers will want to milk our pretender status for as long as they can, and as such, Shapiro's hands will be tied.

If we're not contending before the trade deadline, they'll blow it up. Casual viewership will not stick around a mediocre team, and the ratings can drop as quickly as they sky-rocketed. Rogers will not want to have a $165M roster if the viewership does not support it.

Don't think Rogers will have the luxury of milking our pretender status. There's a hard end date for that: after the 2018 season, when Donaldson hits free agency, because we aren't going to pay him a $30m AAV deep into his thirties. That basically leaves two years, and if 2017 doesn't go spectacularly our ratings/attendance will tank pretty damned fast, because we're that sort of baseball market.

This team went to back to back American League Championship Series' and you losers want to blow it up?

Sure it's worth a decade of misery for a top 5 farm system, got to do it!

You make me sick, seriously.

Not to mention undoing all the goodwill built by AA. Remember crowds of 15k at the Rogers Centre? Yeah let's go back to that.

SonOfRoy wrote:This team went to back to back American League Championship Series' and you losers want to blow it up?

Sure it's worth a decade of misery for a top 5 farm system, got to do it!

You make me sick, seriously.

It's almost as if we threw all of our resources into making back-to-back ALCS appearances with an aging roster, and this was predictable years in advance.

Schad wrote:

SonOfRoy wrote:This team went to back to back American League Championship Series' and you losers want to blow it up?

Sure it's worth a decade of misery for a top 5 farm system, got to do it!

You make me sick, seriously.

It's almost as if we threw all of our resources into making back-to-back ALCS appearances with an aging roster, and this was predictable years in advance.

It hasn't aged beyond the point that they can't compete for the next 2-3 years. It's quite premature to assume the window is already closed.

SonOfRoy wrote:This team went to back to back American League Championship Series' and you losers want to blow it up?

Sure it's worth a decade of misery for a top 5 farm system, got to do it!

You make me sick, seriously.

The team will likely blow itself up automatically be it this year or next. The lack of positional talent development over the past 10 years has crippled the organization.

I'm all for letting the team prove that it's not a contender all by itself before dumping players. But there are decent chances the team will not be a contender at July 31 or by next winter.

Unless you are suggesting the Jays should trade some of it's current limited prospect capital to fill short term holes this year with more veteran players -- I am not even sure if that is possible under the budget.

SonOfRoy wrote:
It hasn't aged beyond the point that they can't compete for the next 2-3 years. It's quite premature to assume the window is already closed.

We scraped a Wild Card appearance by the skin of our teeth. And by my back-of-the-napkin math, it would have taken a payroll in the $185m range just to keep that team together, one year older.

It's not 2001 anymore. The league isn't fueled by amphetamines and steroids, and consequently players age out of their primes earlier. A team of 35+ year olds simply will not be good.

Duffman100 wrote:I'm for it. I don't think our hitting will be good enough.

But we can wait for the first quarter or half of the season to make that call.

That's the best approach, but I don't think we're heading for a "full" rebuild, like, say, Atlanta is going through or where Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have been. I don't think a rebuild need mean a series of 70 win seasons. The farm system is light on high quality assets, but not bereft. It's just that the best talent is in the lower levels. The Jays likely will have three late first round picks, and if the revamped scouting organization does well, and builds on what I consider was a decent draft last June, and we deal off a couple of older players (like Happ and/or Estrada) for prospects, the farm picture can start turning on a dime. The Lourdes Gurriel signing is indicative of an organization willing to explore new avenues, and they can help a rebuild by spending money in ways like that that aren't subject to pool limitations or draft picks. Once you get a few of the better prospects through to the major league level, you can contemplate dealing others for veteran help.

Donaldsons value will never be higher than it is right now. You could litterally get the top 2 prospects from any team for him right now because he's healthy/under contract for more than 1 year and only 1 year removed from an MVP award.

The jays aren't trading anyone till we see how the team plays next year but come trade deadline time if we're 10 games back you would net any prospects for him if you did deal him. And you could also trade Marco Estrada and liriano if they are healthy& pitching adequately. Which would be a nice addition to the farm system considering they're both likely gone in FA anyways.

bluerap23 wrote:Logically it would make sense. The problem is that Rogers won't do it. They want to extend the window of competition so they can keep counting their money. Too bad they hired a president for a rebuild (back when they were a 500 team) that has very little experience signing players in free agency. Now they are stuck in the middle. If they really are going to compete it is completely ridiculous to let EE walk to CLEVELAND of all places on a value deal. Even after signing Morales and Pearce. They should have signed him and looked for a way to move one of those weaker players at the deadline. At least they get a pick.

Draft pick compensation has been abolished in the new CBA, I believe, so there is no incentive to deal "weaker players" or hold them the full season to "qualify" them.

Kinger95 wrote:Donaldsons value will never be higher than it is right now. You could litterally get the top 2 prospects from any team for him right now because he's healthy/under contract for more than 1 year and only 1 year removed from an MVP award.

The jays aren't trading anyone till we see how the team plays next year but come trade deadline time if we're 10 games back you would net any prospects for him if you did deal him. And you could also trade Marco Estrada and liriano if they are healthy& pitching adequately. Which would be a nice addition to the farm system considering they're both likely gone in FA anyways.

It might come to that. Happ might also have good trade value if he reprises his 2016 performance. Happ isn't an FA until 2018, so the return on him might be even better.

dagger wrote:Draft pick compensation has been abolished in the new CBA, I believe, so there is no incentive to deal "weaker players" or hold them the full season to "qualify" them.

Not abolished, but made more convoluted. Teams losing QO'd players will still get a 1A comp pick, as we're getting for Edwin, so long as they sign for $50m+. Under $50m and you get a 2A pick, so roughly 25-30 picks lower. In some respects, it makes it more likely that comped FAs get paid because the picks surrendered are lower than the ones created (whereas now the reverse is true), but it does diminish the value of the compensation for the likes of Estrada/Liriano/Happ should they be comp eligible, because no one's throwing $50m at them.

for the last two yrs this team has felt like it was 1 player away and a good bounce and less bone head play and we'd win it, now its rebuild, all because this billion dollar organization didn't wanna commit financially.

After we sell off all our remaining good players, become irrelevant again and rebuild. In about like 9 years when its going to be time to pay Vladdy JR big coin, we are going to balk and rinse and repeat.

Hey we might have natural grass by then smh

Schad wrote:

dagger wrote:Draft pick compensation has been abolished in the new CBA, I believe, so there is no incentive to deal "weaker players" or hold them the full season to "qualify" them.

Not abolished, but made more convoluted. Teams losing QO'd players will still get a 1A comp pick, as we're getting for Edwin, so long as they sign for $50m+. Under $50m and you get a 2A pick, so roughly 25-30 picks lower. In some respects, it makes it more likely that comped FAs get paid, but it does diminish the value of the compensation for the likes of Estrada/Liriano/Happ should they be comp eligible, because no one's throwing $50m at them.

Thanks for that clarification. I think it means a very active trade deadline in July for the league as a whole. It also likely means fewer comped FA's because why throw a QO at a player unlikely to get a $50m+ deal, and risk him actually taking that QO?

DreamTeam09 wrote:for the last two yrs this team has felt like it was 1 player away and a good bounce and less bone head play and we'd win it, now its rebuild, all because this billion dollar organization didn't wanna commit financially.

After we sell off all our remaining good players, become irrelevant again and rebuild. In about like 9 years when its going to be time to pay Vladdy JR big coin, we are going to balk and rinse and repeat.

Hey we might have natural grass by then smh

I don't buy this at all. As Schad and I and others have said, it would have taken $185 million or more just to keep together a team that was only good enough to make it to the wildcard slot on the last day of the season. It would have taken $210 million or more to keep this roster plus David Price, and that's crazy. This team was no one player away last season. It was not a bad bounce away from winning the AL. There was an offensive fall off throughout the lineup last season. This roster peaked shortly after it was put together in the summer of 2015. The adrenalin was really pumping. Starting fresh last spring, without that rush, with contract issues lurking in the background, it wasn't quite the same. Very good, but a bit less than expected, especially offensively. If not for surprisingly good starting pitching, we would have been lucky to win 80 games. And how do you expect this aging roster to play in 2017? Can Russell Martin catch 130 games? How likely is that? Is Tulo supposed to bounce back to his late-20s prime, or will he decline even more at the plate? And most importantly for me, can a team which had extraordinary injury luck in the starting rotation count on such luck again?

Toronto might not be a small market, but we're not Los Angeles or New York either. And with a 74-cent dollar, heading even lower in my view, we;'re really mid-market in terms of financial drawing power even when the stands are full and TV ratings are high.

There's also a big difference in paying EE $20 million a season at age 34, running through age 37, to play some 1B and DH, and paying Vlad Jr big bucks in nine years. If he's good enough in nine years, he will be age 27 and absolutely in his prime. You can give a superstar at that age and playing in the field full time (as opposed to DH-ing) a mega deal in dollars and years and not blink.