Moderator: JaysRule15
zilby wrote:Fair enough, but exactly 0% of this analysis was motivated by baseball reasons.
Schad wrote:zilby wrote:Fair enough, but exactly 0% of this analysis was motivated by baseball reasons.
Nope! But his scouting report actually looks pretty good...throws mid-90s from the left side, has posted spectacular numbers in A+/AA, just turned 22. He's also a Kennesaw State grad, which is seemingly our favourite haunt.
Might be too much prospect for Liriano, but he's a relief-only pitcher who won't help the Royals until after half their team has walked, so I can dream.
Schad wrote:Being good by 2020 might not be expected, but we would expect to be on the up-slope, becoming competitive with a steady stream of talent coming to the majors, and the finances and surplus prospects to make further moves. If we lose Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez making a vain run at competing over the next couple years, then we're looking at the possibility of rebuilding through 2023, maybe longer. Hell, we might well find ourselves in a familiar position: having to abort a more natural rebuild in order to take a stab at competing as Vlad/Bichette approach free agency.
In every case, though, those rentals would have gotten far more if they weren't rentals. Norris + minor pieces would not a David Price deal make if he had a year and a half of team control.
Nothing is guaranteed to work. Some things have a much better likelihood of working, however. Hoping to turn a terrible team into a Wild Card contender with little talent bubbling up and two key players hitting free agency and then hoping that this will not impact your talent base is one of those things with an insanely high degree of difficulty.
The_Hater wrote:Tanner wrote:Schad wrote:.
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I just don't get the logic of wanting to strip the roster down to nothing years before you have to just to stockpile prospects as if that's guaranteed to work. Maximize the value of the asset regardless of team direction, and if you think there will be an opportunity to contend next season, then make sure you can still move the pieces later if things go south.
Help me understand this 'before we have to' argument. I won't even venture into the part where you think this won't be necessary until 'years' into the future.
The Jays have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball. Check. BA ranks us 20th in MLB.
On top of the weak farm system Jays haven't added an everyday position player or starting pitcher to their lineup/rotation, from the minors, in 3 seasons. Check.
The Jays are an old team. Check. They're currently the oldest team in MLB in terms of average age.
Old players tend to depreciate not appreciate in both value and production. Check.
The Jays aren't very good. Check. They're currently in last place 7 games under .500
The Jays are actually worse than their current record. Check. Their run differential is that of a team 17 games below .500
The Jays have spent a lot $$$ on this team. Check. 5th highest total payroll in MLB.
So what exactly are we waiting to happen before it's time to dismantle the current situation and start over? What is it about the current situation that makes people think that next year just isn't going to be better, but the Jays can be back in contention with young improving teams like the BoSox and Yankees?
zilby wrote:Makes the most sense to trade Frankie now and try to get something of value. He was really good down the stretch last year, definitely capable of doing it again for another team. And the good news is, unlike the Pirates, we won't have to attach prospects just to get rid of him.
Tanner wrote:The_Hater wrote:Tanner wrote:
Help me understand this 'before we have to' argument. I won't even venture into the part where you think this won't be necessary until 'years' into the future.
The Jays have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball. Check. BA ranks us 20th in MLB.
On top of the weak farm system Jays haven't added an everyday position player or starting pitcher to their lineup/rotation, from the minors, in 3 seasons. Check.
The Jays are an old team. Check. They're currently the oldest team in MLB in terms of average age.
Old players tend to depreciate not appreciate in both value and production. Check.
The Jays aren't very good. Check. They're currently in last place 7 games under .500
The Jays are actually worse than their current record. Check. Their run differential is that of a team 17 games below .500
The Jays have spent a lot $$$ on this team. Check. 5th highest total payroll in MLB.
So what exactly are we waiting to happen before it's time to dismantle the current situation and start over? What is it about the current situation that makes people think that next year just isn't going to be better, but the Jays can be back in contention with young improving teams like the BoSox and Yankees?
They should have rebuilt after 2015 using that logic. Old roster, wasn't going to get better, had to find 3 starters + an entire AAA rotation, and so on. Shapiro/Atkins/LaCava practically saved that 2016 team with their pitching acquisitions. It could have gone the opposite direction very easily without Happ, Estrada, Liriano in the 2nd half, and others. But they saw a window and tried to continue it. If they Jays feel they have a window with Donaldson, and that the existing roster has underachieved beyond reasonable decline (and clearly that's the case), then why not? They can rebuild a year from now if/when it fails.
Barring some great GM work, Atkins is not going to be getting much back for the vets on this roster. Donaldson is having his worst season and has been hurt in a market where contenders simply do not need third basemen. Smoak has been awesome but has no track record (he's much more of an asset next year at this time if he continues to hit like this). With 3+ years of control left, there is no hurry to trade the young pitching who should be able to maintain value over the next two years barring injury.
The Jays don't have to rebuild right now. They could if they wanted to, and I wouldn't complain if they did, but they don't have to. They could take another stab at it next year and go from there. I think too many people have the NBA mindset here. Rebuilding in baseball can be a lot more fluid.
AthensBucks wrote:Lowry is done.
Nurse is below average at best.
Masai is overrated.
I dont get how so many people believe in the raptors,they have zero to chance to win it all.
Tanner wrote:I don't disagree with that, but let's look at the alternative. Say the Jays try to compete in 2018 and fail. Right back to this same spot next year. So they trade Donaldson for whatever they can get. Then they keep Smoak, Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna until the trade deadline of 2019 because they want to take another stab at it in 2019 (I don't think they will but I'll use your argument that they will never rebuild). They trade Smoak at the 2019 deadline, and the other three either at the same time as Smoak or winter prior to the 2020 season. So basically in that scenario they would hold on to all of them until they are about to become free agents.
It is hard to say what the returns in trades will be a year or two years from now because a lot can change in player value, but realistically, in the above scenario, how much does that postpone the team's next window of contention? A year? A few years?
No doubt they will get more value for Stroman now than they would 2 years from now, but how many teams trade front of the rotation pitchers with 3 years of arb left?
Cespedes with more years of control left got half a season of Lester, and then Porcello in prior trades. When he had two months remaining, he got Fulmer. That seems like a net positive for the Tigers. I'll give you Price. Norris was a top 20 prospect in baseball in 2015, and probably somewhat comparable to Smyly (the main guy Tampa got for Price the year before), but Matt Boyd and Labourt are not Wily Adames (who was 18 at the time of the deal) so that's a clear win for trading him the year before. Regardless, in theory yes you will get more if you're giving up a player with more years of control but that doesn't mean you won't get talent back for a rental. A lot will depend on the front office's ability to evaluate talent.
I agree that rebuilding is a legitimate philosophy, and the Jays may need to do it. Where we disagree is doing it now and potentially settling for less of a return, or waiting a year and seeing if they can either build a competitive team in '18 or sell when their best player's value might be a bit higher (or the market has more of a demand for 3b).
Ultimately yes I do think Rogers is behind wanting to contend next season, between the increased attendance and renovations to the stadium, they will want to keep the money rolling in. Where I disagree is that it's going to significantly impact this team's next competitive window. Maybe I have more faith in Shapiro than others.
As a seller, it is better to make a deal before the deadline as opposed to during the waiver period. Prior to the deadline, clubs have leverage because they can sell to multiple teams. If a player gets claimed during the waiver period, then he can only be traded to that one team. It’s hard to make a good deal with only one club interested.
The Blue Jays have proclaimed themselves both buyers and sellers as the deadline approaches. If they buy, they will only acquire players who offer control beyond this season. If a deal doesn’t get done before the July 31 deadline, this type of player won’t clear waivers and won’t likely get to them on waivers. So, if the Jays don’t buy now they won’t be buying until the off-season.
If the Jays are going to sell, guys like Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Jose Bautista and Joe Smith could be on the move. If a deal isn’t struck by the deadline, it will be because the underperformance of the players has limited the market or the return wasn’t worth the reduction in competitiveness at the big-league level.
The only player who wouldn’t likely get through waivers in August is Joe Smith, because he has performed well and has a reasonable contract.
The likelihood is that any deal for Liriano, Estrada and Bautista would include the Jays having to eat some part of their salary so they will all clear waivers. If a club claims any of the three, the Jays can give them to that club to get out from the remaining salary. This will allow Toronto to trade them to any interested team, so, if they perform better in August a trade market could pop up.
polo007 wrote:As a seller, it is better to make a deal before the deadline as opposed to during the waiver period. Prior to the deadline, clubs have leverage because they can sell to multiple teams. If a player gets claimed during the waiver period, then he can only be traded to that one team. It’s hard to make a good deal with only one club interested.
The Blue Jays have proclaimed themselves both buyers and sellers as the deadline approaches. If they buy, they will only acquire players who offer control beyond this season. If a deal doesn’t get done before the July 31 deadline, this type of player won’t clear waivers and won’t likely get to them on waivers. So, if the Jays don’t buy now they won’t be buying until the off-season.
If the Jays are going to sell, guys like Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Jose Bautista and Joe Smith could be on the move. If a deal isn’t struck by the deadline, it will be because the underperformance of the players has limited the market or the return wasn’t worth the reduction in competitiveness at the big-league level.
The only player who wouldn’t likely get through waivers in August is Joe Smith, because he has performed well and has a reasonable contract.
The likelihood is that any deal for Liriano, Estrada and Bautista would include the Jays having to eat some part of their salary so they will all clear waivers. If a club claims any of the three, the Jays can give them to that club to get out from the remaining salary. This will allow Toronto to trade them to any interested team, so, if they perform better in August a trade market could pop up.
The Toronto Blue Jays are now said to be willing to listen on their fine lefty starter J.A. Happ, according to sources, though any deal they’d make is with an eye on 2018 and Happ is under contract through next year.
It isn’t known what the likelihood of a Happ deal might be, but they don’t appear to be shopping him hard, and understandably may not be at all disappointed to carry him into next year.
The Jays have made available free-agents-to-be Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano, who both aren’t having their best years. Both are talented pitchers with some October success in their past, so teams are considering those pitchers — though they may be fallback options to the few starters on the market.
The trade market for top starters is very thin, so Toronto may just take a look to see if someone would pay strongly. Happ had a big year last year — he finished 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and earned a sixth-place Cy Young finish — but has missed a little time this year and is 3-8 with a 4.15 ERA. He is to make $13 million next year, the final year of a free agent deal he signed with Toronto.
The Blue Jays, if they overcommit in the wrong spots this winter, could end up in a similar spot despite a payroll of around $165 million. Their farm system includes two potential future cornerstones in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette, but there’s a gap before they’ll be ready and little surplus to deal from to get immediate help for the big-league club.
Beyond Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, there’s little upside to be found on the roster for 2018, although a healthy Josh Donaldson should rebound in a big way before he hits free agency. How Troy Tulowitzki returns from the ligament tear in his right ankle – the Blue Jays didn’t reveal details Sunday but the damage is said to be significant – is a major question. Justin Smoak will need to repeat, while Russell Martin and Kendrys Morales will each be another year older.
And there’s no looming bounty coming before the non-waiver trade deadline passes Monday afternoon at 4 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays most likely to be moved remain lefty Francisco Liriano and reliever Joe Smith, with a lesser chance that Marco Estrada gets dealt, as well.
Other opportunities are less far along, although time remains for surprise to arise, with Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair reporting that Cleveland recently phoned the Blue Jays to inquire about Jose Bautista. Any deal for Bautista is complicated by veto power granted by his rights as a player with 10 years of service time, five straight with the same team and the Blue Jays aren’t likely to approach him without a firm offer. But pairing him with Smith could solve a couple of needs for the Indians.
Bautista and Smith could also make some sense for the Nationals, while the Royals and Brewers are seeking starters, although both were said to have cooled on Estrada. Liriano also might hold appeal for teams seeking a swingman as the lefty can both start and relieve.
Schad wrote:You're still framing this as if I'm talking only about 2017, though. If we're absolute garbage at the deadline next year, maybe we do move Donaldson (at a steep discount). What I'm really talking about is the distinct possibility that we're merely mediocre next season, and because we have a mandate to "please the fans", that means that we don't trade Donaldson at all, even if we hit the deadline as something of a fringe contender for the Wild Card. Hell, that then puts pressure on us to actually add to the team to chase the dream, further eroding our prospect base.
How much it delays things depends on that outcome. If we're a near-.500 team this time next year, and all we get for Donaldson and Happ are comp picks who won't reach the majors until, if things go well, 2023 or 2024 (and are far less likely to reach the majors overall than if you trade for some team's best prospect who is in the upper minors)...well, that could delay things quite a bit. Particularly if we then repeat the process in 2019.
But should we be shopping Happ now? Yup.
If we're relying on the front office's ability to evaluate talent and get us very good deals, wouldn't we still prefer to trade players at peak value, when presumably their evaluation skills would get us better deals?
I think fairly highly of Shapiro. But he's not a magician; he walked into what was a really difficult situation, and managed to wring a second playoff berth out of it when that might not have been likely. But it'd take nothing short of a miracle to retool this into a contender, given that the core keeps getting older, we won't have much by way of money to spend ($40m to fill several holes doesn't go far), and we won't have much help bubbling up in the short term.
