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Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:12 pm
by JaysRule15
rapstarter wrote:I'm a casual fan, and I'm here reading up on a 15 year old Brazilian baseball prospect just 2 weeks into the season. Sad!
A lot better than reading up on Dermody lol.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:45 pm
by dagger
You can read about 22 year old Anthony Alford who is 2-2 so far tonight, maybe a year away from the majors. Double, single and stolen base.
Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:42 pm
by polo007
Which way, Blue Jays?
The Blue Jays, at 2-10, already look like a likely seller. Neither right-hander Aaron Sanchez (blister) and lefty J.A. Happ (elbow) is expected to be out long, but third baseman Josh Donaldson likely will miss 2 to 4 weeks due to his latest calf issue, sources said.
Whatever happens, it’s doubtful the Jays would pursue a major overhaul. They sold approximately 2.5 million tickets before the season even began, sources said, and do not want to lose the momentum they’ve generated in the market since the second half of 2015 – momentum reflected not only by their attendance, but also in their television ratings.
That said, the Jays are the oldest team in the majors, and they could trade their top potential free agents (right-hander Marco Estrada, left-hander Francisco Liriano, right fielder Jose Bautista) and still be quite competitive next season.
Their more difficult decisions, assuming good health, would be whether to move Donaldson and, to a lesser extent, Happ, both due to become free agents after 2018.
A strategic re-set will be necessary at some point. A major deconstruction would be a tough sell.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:51 pm
by tecumseh18
dagger wrote:You can read about 22 year old Anthony Alford who is 2-2 so far tonight, maybe a year away from the majors. Double, single and stolen base.
So much drama around Alford over the years. "Oh no, he'll never sign with the Jays." "Oh no, he wasted his prime development years playing football, he'll never catch up." "Oh no, concussion!" It'll be such a relief to see him take CF next season. He and eventually Guerrero - I assume in RF - could be the new Moseby and Bell. Tellez (6' 4") as Olerud (6 5").
If Martin can get it together for one of his mid-summer hot streaks, maybe Jays can package him and Liriano somewhere. But I assume it's harder to deal a starting catcher in mid-season.
Do we want to keep Boras-affiliated Sanchez around?
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:17 pm
by Schad
A strategic re-set will be necessary at some point. A major deconstruction would be a tough sell.
I can't see how we do this without a major deconstruction. It's hard to pivot to being a younger team with more years of control without such, because we opened the season with something like 15 players over the age of 30 on our 25-man roster, with two-thirds of those being out of contract within the next two years, including our best player.
It might be a tough sell, but would letting half the team walk be an
easier sell? Because we're not going to be re-signing most of those players in any instance.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:16 pm
by vaff87
Schad wrote:A strategic re-set will be necessary at some point. A major deconstruction would be a tough sell.
I can't see how we do this without a major deconstruction. It's hard to pivot to being a younger team with more years of control without such, because we opened the season with something like 15 players over the age of 30 on our 25-man roster, with two-thirds of those being out of contract within the next two years, including our best player.
It might be a tough sell, but would letting half the team walk be an
easier sell? Because we're not going to be re-signing most of those players in any instance.
Schad, SCHAD! I have an important question ... do you think Anthony Alford will be a top 25 prospect when mid-season prospect lists come out?
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:25 pm
by Schad
vaff87 wrote:
Schad, SCHAD! I have an important question ... do you think Anthony Alford will be a top 25 prospect when mid-season prospect lists come out?
Certainly possible. Biggest things to watch for are his slugging percentage and K rate, because those will really be the determinants of his value...his walk rate is good enough that he doesn't have to be a .300 hitter to be valuable, but his K rate last season was high enough that it was a major concern for a guy who hasn't been a masher. Good start in that department, but so long as he's mostly hitting singles and getting buoyed by BABIP, some of the rankings might be a bit more conservative.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:31 pm
by vaff87
Schad wrote:vaff87 wrote:
Schad, SCHAD! I have an important question ... do you think Anthony Alford will be a top 25 prospect when mid-season prospect lists come out?
Certainly possible. Biggest things to watch for are his slugging percentage and K rate, because those will really be the determinants of his value...his walk rate is good enough that he doesn't have to be a .300 hitter to be valuable, but his K rate last season was high enough that it was a major concern for a guy who hasn't been a masher. Good start in that department, but so long as he's mostly hitting singles and getting buoyed by BABIP, some of the rankings might be a bit more conservative.
Yeah, I would agree. Those extra base hits started coming in the last two games. It certainly seems like he's putting last year's injury riddled season behind him. He seems to have all the tools, if he can keep those K's down. Only guy that comes to mind, is perhaps Mike Cameron?
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:07 pm
by Basketball_Jones
Let's bring back Eric Thames, get some power back!
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:11 pm
by Schad
vaff87 wrote:Yeah, I would agree. Those extra base hits started coming in the last two games. It certainly seems like he's putting last year's injury riddled season behind him. He seems to have all the tools, if he can keep those K's down. Only guy that comes to mind, is perhaps Mike Cameron?
Cameron's a really good shout, actually. Alford might not have quite as much power, but as Cameron was a pretty consistent 4-5 WAR player, if Alford tops out a bit below that there's still plenty of value to be had.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:45 pm
by vaff87
Schad wrote:vaff87 wrote:Yeah, I would agree. Those extra base hits started coming in the last two games. It certainly seems like he's putting last year's injury riddled season behind him. He seems to have all the tools, if he can keep those K's down. Only guy that comes to mind, is perhaps Mike Cameron?
Cameron's a really good shout, actually. Alford might not have quite as much power, but as Cameron was a pretty consistent 4-5 WAR player, if Alford tops out a bit below that there's still plenty of value to be had.
I actually meant he was the first guy that came to mind, not the only guy, BTW. Haven't really thought about it deeply.
I could see Alford hitting for a bit more average than Cameron, but with a bit less power. 15-20 home run power, as opposed to Cameron who was putting up 25 homers in Safeco. However, Cameron's career average is only .249. Career high was .273. I think Alford can exceed that. But it comes down to keeping his strike outs down, as you said.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 2:39 pm
by Strav
They’re Old and Out of Contention, but the Blue Jays Shouldn’t Rebuild - The easiest way to get a superstar like Josh Donaldson is to keep the one you have
https://theringer.com/toronto-blue-jays-josh-donaldson-troy-tulowitzki-rebuild-35b4d63e7815
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:08 pm
by Schad
That's really not a very logical argument. The Jays core is old and not very good...therefore, they should keep together their core, which is old and not very good, and hope things go better next year. We wouldn''t even have the ability to make additions! Even just keeping this squad for next season would cost the better part of $180m.
If instead they don't keep together the core, just the arb players and Donaldson would push us into the $130m range for next season, with most of a bullpen and two rotation spots to fill. There are serious diminishing returns at play, and hoping that we can re-sign Donaldson for his age 33-39 seasons at $30m+ isn't a great piece of business if we're retooling, either.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:10 pm
by The_Hater
Schad wrote:A strategic re-set will be necessary at some point. A major deconstruction would be a tough sell.
I can't see how we do this without a major deconstruction. It's hard to pivot to being a younger team with more years of control without such, because we opened the season with something like 15 players over the age of 30 on our 25-man roster, with two-thirds of those being out of contract within the next two years, including our best player.
It might be a tough sell, but would letting half the team walk be an
easier sell? Because we're not going to be re-signing most of those players in any instance.
Plus the thing with MLB rebuilds is they can be lightning quick. One lost season of trading off your vets. One more season of playing youth and carving the payroll and then you add a couple of free agents for the turnaround season.
They don't all happen this quick but the base of pitchers should be solid and by then the farm system should be producing big league players. The lineup is going to be tougher to build than the staff but hats a good thing.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:58 pm
by Schad
The_Hater wrote:Plus the thing with MLB rebuilds is they can be lightning quick. One lost season of trading off your vets. One more season of playing youth and carving the payroll and then you add a couple of free agents for the turnaround season.
They don't all happen this quick but the base of pitchers should be solid and by then the farm system should be producing big league players. The lineup is going to be tougher to build than the staff but hats a good thing.
Yeah, look at the Yankees. They 'rebuilt' as a low/mid 80s win team, but still swung a number of trades that (alongside good drafts and IFA signings) beefed their minor league system up into one of the best in the majors. They still have some old players, but they've brought through a bunch of guys in their early/mid 20s, with a huge wave of talent on the horizon...if they fall off, they can move their impending FAs for even more value, because they replace from within, and if they stay in the race they can easily go into free agency with Pineda/Sabathia/etc expiring and have options. They can also add vets to complement their kids while waiting on the rest of the kids, and continue retooling while competing.
Now, our situation will probably end up with more of a dip, just because we stripped the farm. But it doesn't need to be a several-year-tank, either.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:21 pm
by BigLeagueChew
That was my question for rebuilding. How many years would we potentially be looking at?
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:48 pm
by Schad
BigLeagueChew wrote:That was my question for rebuilding. How many years would we potentially be looking at?
Hard to say. Players are productive at younger ages now, so it's a matter of our kids (both the ones in the system and those we'd acquire) getting here, and hopefully succeeding. If all goes well, three years perhaps?
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:08 am
by BigLeagueChew
Schad wrote:
Hard to say. Players are productive at younger ages now, so it's a matter of our kids (both the ones in the system and those we'd acquire) getting here, and hopefully succeeding. If all goes well, three years perhaps?
That's not too bad I think most assume it would take much longer.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:29 pm
by phillipmike
BigLeagueChew wrote:That was my question for rebuilding. How many years would we potentially be looking at?
Depends when you do it. If the Jays wait like the Philles when their best assets decline then it can take 5 plus years (like when AA started in 2010). Outside of Halladay he had no good assets to trade and had to rebuild everything.
But if the Jays are out if this season and sell they could be back in as early as 2018 and 2019 with the right trades.
I said this earlier;
If the Jays team sucks then yeah they should probably trade assets for a younger core but only if they suck. Outside of losing Donaldson i think the Jays are in a good position for the future.
In 2019 we only have 52M committed to Tulo, Martin and Morales.
C: Martin
1B:
2B: Travis
SS: Tulo
3B:
RF:
CF: Pillar
LF: Pompey
DH: Morales
Sanchez
Stroman
Osuna
Biagini
Rough estimate of committed (52M) and arb guys (28M) is about 80M. Atkins and Shapiro are all about sustainable winning and if they spent their money smartly which i think they will then it should be easy to fill out the rest of the team if our payroll is at 160M or slightly higher. Hopefully one of Tellez, Gurriel, Alford or Reid-Foley become who we think they are. Doesnt include Vladdy or Urena either. Leaves roughly 70-80M to find 2 position players, 3 starters and a pen. I am not saying it is easy but i dont think that it wouldnt be hard, sure replacing Donaldson is impossible but having talent better stretched out on the field is better than Donaldson, Smoak, and whatever you have in LF.
Then in 2020 you have 32M coming off the books in Martin and Morales. Tulo in his final year at 14M, if he is still a SS then play him there, if not he can be your 1B/DH. With the new FO staying away from long term deals for vets and potentially having a payroll of 150M or more they will always be in a good position.
The Jays could get a lot for Donaldson perhaps gaining 2 potential long term core pieces. Happ, Liriano, and Estrada could get good returns too and Estrada and Liriano could re-sign in the off-season. You have Bautista available as well.
Look at the standings... Cleveland and Boston are underwhelming. There arent any legit contenders in the AL like the Cubs. Just take it year by year.
Re: What does a Jays firesale look like?
Posted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:54 pm
by StopitLeo
I think the best strategy would be to first move Donaldson to rebuild the top of the farm system. He has the most value (if he isn't hurt) and would be a game changer for the team acquiring him. I can't imagine he wouldn't be able to get a big haul. Then move Estrada who is going to be a free agent at the deadline since teams are always desperate to add a starter, especially one who has been so solid in the playoffs.
The Jays must have been budgeting for a potentially huge contract for Donaldson if we had continued to play well. Maybe they go crazy and throw the money at Machado if they think the team has the assets after trading Donaldson and Estrada to turn it around in a year. It's not like we could keep JD and then spend cash on top prospects.