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Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18

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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#41 » by jaymeister15 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:26 pm

Unreal

Love JD, but if this isn't the worst game he's had since coming here, it's gotta be close. 0-4 with 2 Ks and a gidp along with 2 errors (2nd one leading directly to a run late in the game).

It's baseball and stuff happens, just a tough game to watch.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#42 » by spykelee » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:52 pm

Trash sox? We've shown who the only trash team is in this series. What a joke


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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#43 » by Geddy » Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:17 pm

I'm convinced that they will finish the season 80-82
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#44 » by Lateral Quicks » Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:29 pm

Geddy wrote:I'm convinced that they will finish the season 80-82


Not if we blow it up at the deadline. And with more of this uninspired play, that's likely.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#45 » by So_Fresh » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:31 pm

Looks like this team has given up.

Like Lateral Quicks said, they are playing uninspired baseball. This is not a wild card team. We have (arguably) one of our best hitters out in Travis. That was a huge loss... We can't recover from this. Either make a trade to shore up the offense, or trade what you have for prospects and start the rebuild. Getting tired of this crap!
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#46 » by Schad » Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:54 pm

Geddy wrote:I'm convinced that they will finish the season 80-82


Eight teams are going to end up tied at 81-81 for the second Wild Card spot. The one-game playoffs will take three months to resolve.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#47 » by BramptonYute » Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:19 pm

Wow, didnt know the Jays were leading attendance this year.

Expected them to take a pretty big hit in April considering they were awful and the Leafs and Raps were in the playoffs.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#48 » by Schad » Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:49 pm

Jose Bautista, by month:

April: .178/.309/.244 in 110 PAs.

May: .317/.412/.644 in 119 PAs.

June: .122/.246/.213 in 57 PAs.

Perhaps we should put him on the DL until July 1st, when he should be a monster again.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#49 » by Afrojay » Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:56 pm

BramptonYute wrote:Wow, didnt know the Jays were leading attendance this year.

Expected them to take a pretty big hit in April considering they were awful and the Leafs and Raps were in the playoffs.


If I recall correctly, attendance is based on tickets sold. I was at the Jays shop the other day and the staff there mentioned that they have about 30,000 season tickets sold this year so even if everyone was busy at the Leafs and Raptors games and no body else bothered to get tickets to the game, they'd still be in the top third of the league.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#50 » by Natural11 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:10 pm

Fun fact: We're 13-21 with Tulo in the lineup this year.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#51 » by LLJ » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:19 pm

BramptonYute wrote:Wow, didnt know the Jays were leading attendance this year.

Expected them to take a pretty big hit in April considering they were awful and the Leafs and Raps were in the playoffs.


I know lots of Jays fans are not yet accepting the reality that this team is not good this year.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#52 » by JaysRule15 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:37 am

Save us Sanchez.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#53 » by Schad » Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:28 am

LLJ wrote:I know lots of Jays fans are not yet accepting the reality that this team is not good this year.


If not for the fact that the pool of actually good teams in the AL is remarkably thin (Fangraphs' prediction model currently has just five teams finishing the year above .500, and we're the fifth at an 83-79 projection), I think people would buy it more readily. In an ordinary season, we'd we staring at quite the uphill climb...last year on this date, our current record of 32-35 would have us 5 GB of the second Wild Card, with seven teams 4 games above .500 or more (this season, there are only three such teams).

There's an allure to "we're only a couple games out!" that makes us seem much more competent than we have been, despite the fact that we're 67 games deep into the season and haven't been at or above .500 for a single day. But sooner or later someone will be competent, and if it's not us, we're not going to be in the playoff race. And given that our schedule is backloaded with AL East games, particularly against the Sox and Yankees (nearly 30% of our remaining schedule is against just those two teams), our road is more difficult than pretty much any of the other contenders.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#54 » by vaff87 » Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:25 am

Pillar's numbers sure have dropped off post-homophobic slur.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#55 » by johanliebert » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:03 am

dagger wrote:This team isn't going to make the playoffs, and we might as well get on with the obvious. The starting pitching is at best, so-so, at worst substandard, the hitting is totally dependent on the home run, there are holes in left field and second base, and some of our best paid players aren't earning it. This is a fifth place team, and barring a major change, it's going to remain a fifth place team.

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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#56 » by Skin Blues » Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:36 am

Schad wrote:To make the playoffs, if the Red Sox and Yankees keep being good, being .533% from here on out is almost certainly not good enough.

Well, again, going by the projection of being a .533 team from here on out and assuming the Yankees and Red Sox keep being good (as FG does), the playoff % sits at 34%. That's not an almost certainty. And a few days ago (when I wrote my initial comment) it was 45%. It can jump around quite a bit. The reason Fangraphs has us as more of a favourite is because it takes our entire roster and remaining schedule into account instead of basically extrapolating our past performance from the start of the year using ELO. 538 at least takes starting pitchers into account but it's only a very rough estimation of their value and does not consider that our team has severely under-performed on offense. So necessarily, any team that has over-performed on offense (the Brewers, for example - 32% on 538 and 9.1% on FG) will look better on 538 even if it doesn't reflect what's likely to happen in the future. If we didn't have the information on how good each team is offensively on a granular level, then 538 would probably be a much better tool.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#57 » by Schad » Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:49 am

Skin Blues wrote:
Schad wrote:To make the playoffs, if the Red Sox and Yankees keep being good, being .533% from here on out is almost certainly not good enough.

Well, again, going by the projection of being a .533 team from here on out and assuming the Yankees and Red Sox keep being good (as FG does), the playoff % sits at 34%. That's not an almost certainty.


I will guarantee you that 83 wins will not be enough for a Wild Card spot, which is our current average expected record per Fangraphs. If we make the playoffs, it's because we were quite a bit better than an 83 win team. Conversely, if we decide to add at the deadline because we're chasing the 83 win dream, we deserve to come up well short.

So, yeah, a .533% from here on out* is almost certainly not enough. Go through every past season, apply the current rules (3x division winners plus two Wild Cards), and tell me exactly how often 83 wins is good enough for one of those Wild Card spots. It's not often!


It's now .528%, and at our current record that'd be an 82-80 final record. That also will not be good enough for a Wild Card spot.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#58 » by -MetA4- » Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:57 pm

Fangraphs is also only one projection. Baseball Prospectus (which uses PECOTA) paints a much bleaker picture and puts us at a 9.7% chance with a 78 win simulated projection.

To me, this looks like a .500 team. Not as bad as that horrid start, and not as good as that streak wherein we went 26-16 or whatever.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#59 » by dagger » Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:40 pm

johanliebert wrote:
dagger wrote:This team isn't going to make the playoffs, and we might as well get on with the obvious. The starting pitching is at best, so-so, at worst substandard, the hitting is totally dependent on the home run, there are holes in left field and second base, and some of our best paid players aren't earning it. This is a fifth place team, and barring a major change, it's going to remain a fifth place team.

Relax.


I'm just stating the obvious, and a belief that the way back to real contention begins with not denying the current state of the team. The Red Sox and Yankees are following a clear development path aimed to make them dominant - not just division leaders - over the next 2-3 years while the Jays hanging on leads to futility and even worse performances than we seeing this year. The way back is through organic growth, and if that process can be accelerated, by converting current assets into futures, it will put us in a better place when those rivals are peaking.

I'm always a big believer in organic growth. Both the Sox and Yankees are leading the division in good measure because they developed players like Judge, Sanchez, Benintendi and Boegarts. We will compete when we have our own young homegrown stars. If Alex Anthopoulous hadn't made a trade since he took over the job - beyond talent or salary dumps out of necessity like Halliday/Wells - then this team wouldn't have made the playoffs the past two season in all likelihood, but would be moving into a golden era of sustainable contention that could last a decade. Think of a pitching staff with Syndergaard, Hoffman, Sanchez, Stroman and Norris for one, and in all likelihood, the past few drafts would have yielded higher picks if we were a worse team for not doing trades. I'm not arguing against what AA did, just qualifying it - we all knew the window for this team would be small, a year or two, and it peaked in 2015. The offence has been declining steadily since, and the pitching that sustained the team last year isn't as good for various reasons. The Jays are the oldest team in the major leaguers and old teams tend to start slowly and be more injury prone. The way forward is clear - whether than means dealing now or next winter.
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Re: Trash Sox at Okay Jays - June 16-18 

Post#60 » by So_Fresh » Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:17 pm

1. Kevin Pillar (R) CF
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3. Jose Bautista (R) RF
4. Kendrys Morales (S) DH
5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B
6. Troy Tulowitzki (R) SS
7. Russell Martin (R) C
8. Steve Pearce (R) LF
9. Ryan Goins (L) 2B

Trash.

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