Skin Blues wrote:Schad wrote:I will guarantee you that 83 wins will not be enough for a Wild Card spot, which is our current average expected record per Fangraphs. If we make the playoffs, it's because we were quite a bit better than an 83 win team.
Yes, of course. This is the same fallacy people fall back on when very few (or zero) players are projected to bat .330 or hit 40 home runs, or relief pitchers projected to have an ERA below 2.00, etc. No single player is likely to do it, but it will certainly be done by at least a handful of people every season due to variance. And the ones that project to be the best in those areas are the most likely to do it. Prior to the season Andrew Miller was projected for the best reliever ERA in baseball at 2.04 but that doesn't mean the best relief pitcher in baseball will have a 2.04 ERA. It does mean, though, that Andrew Miler has the best chance at leading the league in ERA.
Right now, the Jays are projected to have the 5th best record in the AL. It's unlikely they'll be exactly 5th in the AL or finish with exactly 83 wins. We know a lot of teams will overperform, and a lot will underperform, we just don't know which teams will be in either of those groups until after it happens. Right now we only know the Jays are more likely to make the playoffs than any one of the Rays/Rangers/Tigers/Mariners, etc.
If I knew what the lottery numbers where in the next Lotto Max jackpot i'd be a millionaire too!