RealGM

A Rogers media type with the balls to call it.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/time-shapiro-blue-jays-jumpstart-rebuild/

When Paul Beeston was running the club — the person who could vouch for the depth of attachment for the Blue Jays more than any other — there was always only the hope that the fans would rebound after two decades in the wilderness.

It was never a sure thing. Hence all the talk about payroll parameters in the Alex Anthopoulos era, and attendance and payroll being linked.

But in addition to the jolt of cash provided to the franchise since 2015 — one source says the last two years have been the club’s only profitable ones of the Rogers ownership — the last two seasons have offered the clearest kind of proof both of how rich a baseball market Toronto can be and how tightly the Blue Jays are woven into the national sports fabric, no small factor when it comes to the club’s glistening television ratings.

But here’s the key point: Even Beeston was guessing those things to be true.

Shapiro and Blue Jays ownership now have the benefit of a rolling, two-year consumer survey that is accurate to a hundredth of one per cent, 99 times out of 100: The Blue Jays fan base is a gold mine.

Knowing this, the proper course of action in the coming days before the trade deadline and in the months ahead should be very evident: Figure out what needs to be done to develop a truly sustainable winner at Rogers Centre and get on with the job as quickly as possible. Every day delayed is a day wasted.

Exactly how to do that is the duty of Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins, but common sense suggests it would look something like this:

1. Take the risks necessary to invest – even over-invest – in building the best farm system in baseball.

2. As that prospect pipeline produces both elite major leaguers and depth pieces, spend early and often to retain them through most of their primes.

3. When and where necessary, spend aggressively to compliment that homegrown core with missing pieces on the free-agent market.

The beauty of all this is now that ownership knows exactly how Blue Jays fans will respond, it’s a low-risk investment.

If you still read RealGM, Grange: kudos.

Hard rebuild, please.

Sadly it looks like they want to try and contend next year which is stupid because its not going to happen.

I have a bad feeling that the trade deadline will pass without any significant moves being made.

Geddy wrote:I have a bad feeling that the trade deadline will pass without any significant moves being made.

Or worse.... they make significant additions in stead of subtractions

Amazing article, echoes what most of us here have been saying for months now.

Stop worrying about the fanbase. It's there and will always be there as soon as people realize that the team is competitive. Therefore, making the team competitive over the long term instead of these 1-2 year windows of contention needs to be the priority. We have a farm system with some decent looking prospects a couple of years away from the majors. Add to that system right now and hopefully by 2019-2020, you can field a young team that has played through the minors together and are all on cheap deals. Then you can go out and spend the money on FAs to plug any holes. I don't get why this is such a hard concept for Rogers to grasp. Especially when teams from our division like the Yankees and Red Sox did the exact same thing recently.

Geddy wrote:I have a bad feeling that the trade deadline will pass without any significant moves being made.

I can live with us trimming the edges now if we wax the whole thing in the offseason. Also fits well with us exploring the Brazilian market.

And **** Matt Bush.

When people argue against a rebuild, I point to two things: 1) the team sucks, and we don't have the prospect capital to retool it overnight, especially with millstone contracts blotting the payroll; 2) context - to be a contender, you have to at least be competitive in your own division, but three teams in the AL East are boning up for long runs for top spot. You can't ignore a Yankee team that has young talent like Judge and Sanchez, prospects to spare, and can trade for a David Robertson to fill holes. The Yankees and Red Sox have built good teams from the ground up, with young controllable talent (see Red Sox, Bradley Jr. Betts, Boegarts, Benintendi), and the Yankees in particular will have a lot of payroll space to chase Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado when they become free agents. Both still have Tier 1 prospects they can incorporate or use as trade chips. If you focus on 2019, the Jays won't have nearly the talent to compete with those teams, which means the best they can aspire to is second wildcard, and that will be a struggle for a team aging into irrelevance and incompetence. Slo if 2018 and 2019 are going to be difficult no matter what the Jays do, the best plan is to get on with Vision 2020, doing what we have all been suggesting here, and what Grange outlines in his article - maximize current assets, go hard on young talent acquisition and farm system development, draft high (we ought to have a top 10 pick next June), and focus on the kind of team the Jays will be in the 2020-2022 time frame by which time young guys like Bichette, Vlad, Gurriel, etc have not only reached the majors but have had a year or two to establish themselves.

On trading assets, Zaun is of the view that he'd only keep Sanchez. I am not sure about even that, with Boros now repping Sanchez. No extension there. Sanchez and Stroman will be nearing 30 by the time this team is ready to contend again. Aligning the time frame of young players to the rebuild schedule is part of a successful 2020-2022 plan, and Stroman can certainly command top minor league talent that is no more than a year or two away from making it to the majors. My only quandary is Osuna, who would command a great deal now, but is only 22. Clearly, a rebuilding team doesn't need an elite closer, but his success at broadening his pitch repertoire suggests that an acceptable alternative would be to turn him into a starter next season.

Wilner, of course, presents the counter-argument

As someone who was an infant during the Jays' two championships and waited an absurdly long time just to see the Jays make the playoffs, I would like to say I thoroughly enjoyed these past two playoff runs. The Bautista bat flip and beating the O's in the WC are great memories that I was worried I would never experience. Unfortunately the window has closed and it's time to hit the reset button. I won't lie, I am scared of falling into another 20+ year depression as a Jays fan, but rebuilding shouldn't be THAT hard. I am pretty indifferent towards Shapiro and his staff but fingers crossed he'll go for it and do a good job.

RapsFanInVA wrote:As someone who was an infant during the Jays' two championships and waited an absurdly long time just to see the Jays make the playoffs, I would like to say I thoroughly enjoyed these past two playoff runs. The Bautista bat flip and beating the O's in the WC are great memories that I was worried I would never experience. Unfortunately the window has closed and it's time to hit the reset button. I won't lie, I am scared of falling into another 20+ year depression as a Jays fan, but rebuilding shouldn't be THAT hard. I am pretty indifferent towards Shapiro and his staff but fingers crossed he'll go for it and do a good job.

The big difference now is the Jays are #5 in the league in payroll. A lot of those 90's-00's treadmill teams were midpack or worse in payroll. If attendance suffers and fan interest wanes, no doubt they will pull back. But the business case is there to support spending once this team has a good young core to build around.

Natural11 wrote:

RapsFanInVA wrote:As someone who was an infant during the Jays' two championships and waited an absurdly long time just to see the Jays make the playoffs, I would like to say I thoroughly enjoyed these past two playoff runs. The Bautista bat flip and beating the O's in the WC are great memories that I was worried I would never experience. Unfortunately the window has closed and it's time to hit the reset button. I won't lie, I am scared of falling into another 20+ year depression as a Jays fan, but rebuilding shouldn't be THAT hard. I am pretty indifferent towards Shapiro and his staff but fingers crossed he'll go for it and do a good job.

The big difference now is the Jays are #5 in the league in payroll. A lot of those 90's-00's treadmill teams were midpack or worse in payroll. If attendance suffers and fan interest wanes, no doubt they will pull back. But the business case is there to support spending once this team has a good young core to build around.

Yep those were dark times watching the Yankees and Red Sox spend their way to the top of the division. And it was even sadder watching the perennial cellar-dwelling extremely cheap Rays whiz right past us to a WS in 08. But we've proven we can be a big-market team. It shouldn't take long to restock the farm then spend some $$$ to compete again. Just hope we can avoid dangerous Dickey-esque trades when we do get good prospects.

RapsFanInVA wrote: I won't lie, I am scared of falling into another 20+ year depression as a Jays fan, but rebuilding shouldn't be THAT hard.

I get that, but let's make it clear - the Jays farm system, though still in recovery from the 2015 trades, is not likely to remain a weak system. Management is led by some pretty successful talent finders. There are teams that have perennially weak farm systems, but the Jays shouldn't fall in the category. With two first round picks this year - Logan Warmoth is off to an encouraging start at Vancouver (currently hitting .438) and Pearson should be pitching there any day now - and a high pick next June, we're laying in a good foundation.

Already, Bichette and Vlad Jr are winning accolades. Great Sportsnet story here today, suggesting some feel Vlad Jr could hit in the majors right now, but of course they are not going to rush him. Bichette is a remarkable story in his own right. Lourdes Gurriel seems to be adjusting nicely to AA pitching. Pitching is the organization's thin spot right now, but I am intrigued by a few guys - Yency Diaz at Lansing, for example, and you have three pitchers at New Hampshire - Sean Reid Foley, Jon Harris, Francisco Rios - any of whom might make it to the big leagues next season if they can demonstrate a little more consistency. So this rebuild is not really starting from absolute bottom, and could be accelerated this trade deadline or more likely this winter by disposing of some players with residual value. And the Jays have beefed up scouting and player development.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/big-read-vlad-guerrero-jr-best-blue-jays-prospect-generation/

I'm not terribly concerned about a rebuild being interminable, so long as we make the right moves, target the right date and don't further erode our asset base by doing anything stupid in 2018. The Red Sox have an AA-worthy payroll bomb set to go off, but it'll take a couple years to really hamstring them. That should be the time when we're aiming to be good again.

Has Sean Reid Foley stalled?

akakalakin wrote:Has Sean Reid Foley stalled?

He's had intermittent struggles with his control since being drafted. He'll be given time to turn it around, but if he doesn't pan out as a starter, he has the stuff to be a lethal 8th/9th inning guy.

I see they did Refsnyder for McBroom, think I'd rather keep McBroom. The start of many moves I hope.

dagger wrote:Wilner, of course, presents the counter-argument

Read on Twitter

What a clown.

Or you know, the 7-10 year rebuild versus 4-5 where you could get really good assets for the players worth it now and have long term sustainable winning.

Company man if ever one.

akakalakin wrote:I see they did Refsnyder for McBroom, think I'd rather keep McBroom. The start of many moves I hope.

With this acquisition Shapiro saves over $2 million, when he lets Barney walk at the end of this season. Shapiro is beginning to think of ways to cut the payroll, with the decline in attendance that is going to happen next season.