Bautista a victim of his own reputation?

[North_of_Border]

Jose is still a good fielder. Has a plus arm still. And can play multiple positions. Still above average power in his bat.

The only negatives would be his average is down and he runs slow. Well he was never a speedster. And the average is still respectable.

Now I admit he is not worth 18 million any more. But for a guy like him who will likely sign a cheap deal just to stay in the Majors. Why not?

If you can get a player of Bautista's caliber for say, 6, 7, 8 or even 9 million on a 1 year deal. Can you do much worse on the market?

Are you gonna get a proven guy like him at that price?.... no... for that price u get a gamble. A question mark. A coin flip.

Bautista is lucky to get any offers from other teams. Just due to his reputation. Not play. His only true option is Toronto. And as long as the Jays are gonna go for it next year. As it looks like now.... why not bring back the franchise icon?

[Schad]

Jose is not a good fielder. Can't play multiple positions competently, and should really be limited to DH at this point. His primary negative is that, through nearly two-thirds of a season, he has been exactly replacement level.

As for why we shouldn't bring him back: he's old and not very good, and his value is mitigated somewhat for us because his 10-and-5 rights make trading him extremely difficult, and possibly impossible. Also, we already have too many DH types and thus would be forced to keep him in the field, where his range is increasingly limited.

[Skin Blues]

He'd probably be worth his salary in marketing dollars if he came back cheap next year, only because I can't imagine he gets much. He's not really good in the OF but he's not exactly blocking anybody either. We've been trotting Pearce and Carrera out there most of the time. Granted, we've had injuries to our upper minors OFs like Smith/Alford/Pompey, but it's not like we're swimming in MLB calibre outfielders. His reputation doesn't help him because it rules out a few teams and I don't think GM's expect a boost in attendance when signing him like they would for most guys with his resume over the past decade, but his poor play since the start of last year is going to hurt his wallet much more than his reputation will. He's just not very good anymore.

[North_of_Border]

At the right price, he can't be any worse than Carrera. Maybe even Pearce. Or any FA we get at the same price as him.

Plus if Rogers won't let the Jays rebuild just to make more money. Well might as well squeeze the Bautista thing until it drys out. Then give him an honorable going out party. Which means more money for Rogers.

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[Schad]

At the right price, he can't be any worse than Carrera. Maybe even Pearce. Or any FA we get at the same price as him.

Plus if Rogers won't let the Jays rebuild just to make more money. Well might as well squeeze the Bautista thing until it drys out. Then give him an honorable going out party. Which means more money for Rogers.

He has been substantially worse than Carrera this year. Being replacement-level, his fair market value is $500k, because that is the cost of a minimum-salaried player.

[North_of_Border]

At the right price, he can't be any worse than Carrera. Maybe even Pearce. Or any FA we get at the same price as him.

Plus if Rogers won't let the Jays rebuild just to make more money. Well might as well squeeze the Bautista thing until it drys out. Then give him an honorable going out party. Which means more money for Rogers.

He has been substantially worse than Carrera this year. Being replacement-level, his fair market value is $500k, because that is the cost of a minimum-salaried player.

I don't know if the numbers are right on that and how the came to that. But they are Wrong.

Carrera is making more than that I'm sure. Barney will be too expensive for us to resign too. Goins is probably more than that..... if someone is saying Jose is worth 500k but these other guys are worth more. They are lying.

Bautista on a 1 year 6 million deal. Being in Toronto, You can't say no to that.

[Schad]

I don't know if the numbers are right on that and how the came to that. But they are Wrong.

No, they are not wrong. Bautista has, to date, been worth 0.0 Wins Above Replacement on the season, per Fangraphs. That means that he has provided exactly the value you'd expect for a AAAA outfielder that you called up. Such a player would make the minimum salary, which is roughly $500k.

Carrera is making more than that I'm sure. Barney will be too expensive for us to resign too. Goins is probably more than that..... if someone is saying Jose is worth 500k but these other guys are worth more. They are lying.

Carrera is making $1.2m. Goins is however making around the minimum salary, because every player makes around the minimum salary for their first three seasons. Thus Aaron Sanchez is making $535,000 this year, as is Osuna. Next year, when he is eligible for arbitration, he'll be making more.

Bautista on a 1 year 6 million deal. Being in Toronto, You can't say no to that.

Sure I can: no.

Being in Toronto just makes it worse watching Bautista as a shell of himself, and if he declines any further, it'd truly suck having to plant him on the bench or DFA him. I'd really rather not do that.

[So_Fresh]

No reason to keep him, since we have Alford coming up.

[North_of_Border]

I dunno man. I don't care what these numbers and calculations say but Jose Bautista is not worth only 500k.... how can you even argue here.

The Hate.... I can feel it already.

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[Schad]

It's not hate. It's that Bautista, who was once very good, is now not good. To date, he has provided the sort of not-good that you could expect to get very cheaply elsewhere. Thus, he isn't worth much at all, because it's not worth paying Jose Bautista $8m a year to be not good when you could pay someone else $500k for the same service.

Let's take the names out for a moment and consider two players:

Player A: .224/.308/.395, .310 woBA, 97 wRC+.
Player B: .220/.332/.391, .315 wOBA, 94 wRC+.

Player B draws more walks, but advanced metrics peg them as being fairly similar in part because Player A spent a few years in a hitter-unfriendly park...Player B might edge it, but it's very close.

Player B is Bautista, of course. Player A is Justin Smoak, from 2011-2016. The years where Smoak ceased to be a well-regarded prospect and became a guy that the Jays got off waivers, and then a guy that Jays fans regretted getting off waivers. That doesn't include this year's sudden transformation.

Bautista has been, to date this year, Bad Justin Smoak.

[Skin Blues]

We're talking about what he will do next year, not what he's already done this year. Those are two very different things. It's not normal for a 36 year old coming off of 7 consecutive years being among the best hitters in baseball to suddenly drop to below a league average hitter. Just as free speech rights are only important when it's speech people don't agree with, times like this are when projection systems are most useful; when there is such a huge variation in a player's outcomes. You won't find a single credible projection system that pegs Bautista as a replacement level player for 2018. He projects as more of a 1 WAR player now, worth maybe $10M tops, compared to the 3 WAR player he was projected to be at the start of this season. But that's not replacement level. It's hard enough for casual fans to get behind advanced metrics and WAR without confusing them with stuff like telling them Bautista isn't worth re-signing for more than $500K.

[Schad]

We're talking about what he will do next year, not what he's already done this year. Those are two very different things. It's not normal for a 36 year old coming off of 7 consecutive years being among the best hitters in baseball to suddenly drop to below a league average hitter. Just as free speech rights are only important when it's speech people don't agree with, times like this are when projection systems are most useful; when there is such a huge variation in a player's outcomes. You won't find a single credible projection system that pegs Bautista as a replacement level player for 2018. He projects as more of a 1 WAR player now, worth maybe $10M tops, compared to the 3 WAR player he was projected to be at the start of this season. But that's not replacement level. It's hard enough for casual fans to get behind advanced metrics and WAR without confusing them with stuff like telling them Bautista isn't worth re-signing for more than $500K.

The OP repeatedly made assertions tied to what he has done this year, and thus I responded by illustrating the value of his production in 2017. He posited that Bautista was a proven player, unlike the other gambles out there, and certainly could not be any worse than Carrera.

Those things are however incorrect; Bautista is as much of a gamble as any other 1 year, ~$8m player on the market, because one needs to bet that he will be a fair amount better than his production has been to date this season, because the player he has been this season is quite bad. Worse than Carrera, worse than Tulo, worse than most of our regulars. Far from being held back by his reputation, his past production is the only reason he'll enter next season on a fairly generous major league contract somewhere, because if he was 30 year old John Baptiste without the previous track record of success, he would be likely waiver wire fodder in the offseason, hoping to win a job in spring training.

[North_of_Border]

Jose is a solid outfielder with a great arm. Don't under rate that. People are calling him a bad fielder because of the reputation he gained from last season. He us just fine in RF. Not a star but still very respectable.

As for his bat. He is not the big show anymore. But at a reasonable price he is a very reasonable signing. Forget the 18 million. Give him 5-6 million.... people call him a bad hitter because they are comparing him to the 50 Homer Jose. Which he us not.

Gimme Jose over Carrera any way.

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[The_Hater]

Jose is still a good fielder. Has a plus arm still. And can play multiple positions. Still above average power in his bat.

The only negatives would be his average is down and he runs slow. Well he was never a speedster. And the average is still respectable.
?

Jose is a terrible fielder. His arm doesn't make up for his terrible range and all the misplayed balls. Statistically he's not quite as bad as the past 2 seasons but he was among the worst in all of MLB those 2 seasons. He remains terrible however. If you insist on arguing otherwise I would suggest that you do a little more investigative work.

So basically you're looking at a DH who is hitting well below average for his position and has a huge contract. His WAR for the season is 0.1. His terrible rep aside, his contract aside, nobody would likely want that player.

[JaysRule15]

We're talking about what he will do next year, not what he's already done this year. Those are two very different things. It's not normal for a 36 year old coming off of 7 consecutive years being among the best hitters in baseball to suddenly drop to below a league average hitter. Just as free speech rights are only important when it's speech people don't agree with, times like this are when projection systems are most useful; when there is such a huge variation in a player's outcomes. You won't find a single credible projection system that pegs Bautista as a replacement level player for 2018. He projects as more of a 1 WAR player now, worth maybe $10M tops, compared to the 3 WAR player he was projected to be at the start of this season. But that's not replacement level. It's hard enough for casual fans to get behind advanced metrics and WAR without confusing them with stuff like telling them Bautista isn't worth re-signing for more than $500K.

Except that this wasn't a one year decline that started this season? Bautista's numbers dropped across the board in 2016 after his great 2014 and 2015 seasons. Although he was still an above average hitter last year, you can't consider 2016 as the 7th straight season he was "one of the best hitters in baseball". Granted, he played fewer games and dealt with a couple of bad luck injuries, but the decline was setting in after 2015. This season, we've seen stretches where he looks like the old Bautista for a couple of weeks at a time, but he's unable to maintain the production on a consistent basis, a surefire sign of gradual decline imo.

Sure, the projection systems factor in more than two seasons worth of play, so Bautista will still be projected to have a WAR of at least 1.0 going into next season. In fact, Steamer even has his projected WAR for this season as 1.0, despite it being at 0.1 right now.

Considering that his WAR was 1.4 last year, and he'll like finish anywhere between 0.1 to 0.7 this year, it's not unrealistic that he could be projected to have a 1.0 WAR next year. $10 million is probably on the high side, but some team will no doubt give that to him hoping for a miracle bounceback. No draft pick attachment makes him attractive too.

[The_Hater]

Some AL team will likely sign Jose on a flyer next season, but he'll be staring a 1 year contract at very close to the minimum in the face.

2 winters ago I predicted that Edwin would be worse than Jose going forward. Big oops.

[Raptor_Guy]

Jose is a solid outfielder with a great arm. Don't under rate that. People are calling him a bad fielder because of the reputation he gained from last season. He us just fine in RF. Not a star but still very respectable.

As for his bat. He is not the big show anymore. But at a reasonable price he is a very reasonable signing. Forget the 18 million. Give him 5-6 million.... people call him a bad hitter because they are comparing him to the 50 Homer Jose. Which he us not.

Gimme Jose over Carrera any way.

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What are you talking about, he's become a horrible fielder which is why no NL team even looked at him in the off-season.

[JaysRule15]

It's not even that Bautista has become a horrible outfielder all of a sudden, it's that he's been horrible for years now. The guy has put up a -1.0+ dWAR since 2014. Even throughout his glory years from 2010-2014, he was a below-average defender despite having a plus arm. Thing is, we don't care about a player's defense when he's putting up 3-6 WAR every year with his bat. Now that the bat is all but gone though, the lack of defense becomes a bigger factor and takes away from the little value that the bat does provide.

Realistically, this should be Bautista's last season playing the OF on a regular basis. You'll get a bit more value out of him if you use him exclusively at DH going forward.

[The_Hater]

It's not even that Bautista has become a horrible outfielder all of a sudden, it's that he's been horrible for years now. The guy has put up a -1.0+ dWAR since 2014. Even throughout his glory years from 2010-2014, he was a below-average defender despite having a plus arm. Thing is, we don't care about a player's defense when he's putting up 3-6 WAR every year with his bat. Now that the bat is all but gone though, the lack of defense becomes a bigger factor and takes away from the little value that the bat does provide.

Realistically, 2014 should be Bautista's last season playing the OF on a regular basis. You'll get a bit more value out of him if you use him exclusively at DH going forward.

Fixed your post.

Even worse, with Smoak playing great and Morales planted in at DH there's absolutely nowhere else to put him this season. Pearce is really awful in LF too. He threw to the wrong base twice yesterday and let a runner advance from 1st to 2nd each time.

We've got 4 DH/1B in the everyday lineup and our best all around OF, Carrera, barely plays.

[Maddogfromto]

I have no idea why Jose is so hated, sports is full of knuckleheads


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