ST: Wild Card Prospectors @ Wild Card Pipedreamers | August 14-17

johanliebert · Post #21 » by **johanliebert** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:35 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:Loup against Longoria? Really?

Edit: Worked out. Team is winning in spite of Gibby's terrible decision making tonight.

His numbers vs Rhys is impressive. Good job by Gibbs.

Post #22 » by **Schad** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:37 am

Also, the back end of our bullpen has pitched a brutal number of innings in recent weeks, because we simply don't blow anyone out. Kinda have to risk seeing if Loup can get the out.

Post #23 » by **Schad** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:39 am

Oh, the major league leader in innings pitched since the All-Star break among relievers? Miguel Castro.

So_Fresh · Post #24 » by **So_Fresh** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:54 am

The baseball Gods must be on our side. The winnerness on this team is in full effect.

So_Fresh · Post #25 » by **So_Fresh** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:03 am

who needs the fastball when you have a nasty cutter like Osuna does.. damn!!

8-4 in August!

fouronesix22 · Post #26 » by **fouronesix22** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:03 am

phew... that was a nail biter

Lateral Quicks · Post #27 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:06 am

Tepesch engaged in a pitcher's duel, just like we all predicted!

I'll take the win

jaymeister15 · Post #28 » by **jaymeister15** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:07 am

Never would've guessed 2 runs would be enough tonight, that's baseball I suppose.

Taking 3 out of 4 in this series would make things interesting for sure.

nonc · Post #29 » by **nonc** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:08 am

The Angels upcomming schedule is also somewhat difficult.

Post #30 » by **JaysRule15** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:59 am

This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

polo007 · Post #31 » by **polo007** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:38 am

Read on Twitter

raptors2019 · Post #32 » by **raptors2019** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:39 am

polo007 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Always liked Hentgen and always wanted him to be the pitching coach. Did we not have one of the best bullpen when he was coaching?

So_Fresh · Post #33 » by **So_Fresh** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:39 pm

JaysRule15 wrote:This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

yes but anything is possible in the playoffs. more in baseball than any other sport imo. let's see what happens. odds are stacked against this team and a slim chance we make it, but stranger things have happened.

Go Jays Go!

protothe · Post #34 » by **protothe** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:17 pm

So_Fresh wrote:
JaysRule15 wrote:This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

yes but anything is possible in the playoffs. more in baseball than any other sport imo. let's see what happens. odds are stacked against this team and a slim chance we make it, but stranger things have happened.

Go Jays Go!

Hockey is way crazier...you got #8 seeds winning cups.

Santoki · Post #35 » by **Santoki** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:05 pm

JaysRule15 wrote:This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

The problem is they have 7 teams to jump, so that 3.5GB is really misleading. Realistically, at least one of those 7 teams is going to get hot in the next week or two, so it makes getting it under 2-3 games very difficult.

The Jays have to get about 3-4 games over .500 to be really back in the mix in September, so they'd still need another couple of weeks playing .700 ball. If they go 7-3 over the next ten, that just gets them back to .500 and probably still 2GB. They'd need another 7-3 week before you can say they're really in the thick of it going into the last ~25 games or so.

14-6 over their next 20 is a minimum to have a real shot at this. That needs to be the target.

Basketball_Jones · Post #36 » by **Basketball_Jones** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:06 pm

This team is so bad, but they're there to give false hope just like I thought.

So_Fresh · Post #37 » by **So_Fresh** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:03 pm

protothe wrote:
So_Fresh wrote:
JaysRule15 wrote:This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

yes but anything is possible in the playoffs. more in baseball than any other sport imo. let's see what happens. odds are stacked against this team and a slim chance we make it, but stranger things have happened.

Go Jays Go!

Hockey is way crazier...you got #8 seeds winning cups.

Yes, but I would take my chances in a one game series with my number one starter (Stroman) vs. a 7 game series against the Penguins for example.

So_Fresh · Post #38 » by **So_Fresh** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:21 pm

Santoki wrote:
JaysRule15 wrote:This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

The problem is they have 7 teams to jump, so that 3.5GB is really misleading. Realistically, at least one of those 7 teams is going to get hot in the next week or two, so it makes getting it under 2-3 games very difficult.

The Jays have to get about 3-4 games over .500 to be really back in the mix in September, so they'd still need another couple of weeks playing .700 ball. If they go 7-3 over the next ten, that just gets them back to .500 and probably still 2GB. They'd need another 7-3 week before you can say they're really in the thick of it going into the last ~25 games or so.

14-6 over their next 20 is a minimum to have a real shot at this. That needs to be the target.

The 7 teams to jump arguement is nonsense. There are teams bunched together seperated by just a .5 game or less than 3.5 games. Any of these teams (including the Blue Jays.) are capable of getting that 2nd wild card. Let's see what happens.

Santoki · Post #39 » by **Santoki** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:50 pm

So_Fresh wrote:
Santoki wrote:
JaysRule15 wrote:This second wildcard is the devil man. Bud Selig knew exactly what he was doing when he implemented that ****.

No matter how realistic of an outlook I try to have and objectively tell myself this team isn't a contender, all I see is that 3.5 GB behind the second wildcard lol.

The problem is they have 7 teams to jump, so that 3.5GB is really misleading. Realistically, at least one of those 7 teams is going to get hot in the next week or two, so it makes getting it under 2-3 games very difficult.

The Jays have to get about 3-4 games over .500 to be really back in the mix in September, so they'd still need another couple of weeks playing .700 ball. If they go 7-3 over the next ten, that just gets them back to .500 and probably still 2GB. They'd need another 7-3 week before you can say they're really in the thick of it going into the last ~25 games or so.

14-6 over their next 20 is a minimum to have a real shot at this. That needs to be the target.

The 7 teams to jump arguement is nonsense. There are teams bunched together seperated by just a .5 game or less than 3.5 games. Any of these teams (including the Blue Jays.) are capable of getting that 2nd wild card. Let's see what happens.

How is it nonsense? You're relying on 7 teams to also play poorly or not get hot which rarely happens down the stretch of a playoff run.

Saying "let's see what happens" is cliche. Obviously we have to see what happens, but having to chase 1 team down vs 7 is a big factor. The fact of the matter is if all the teams above them continue to play at the same level they are, the Jays still have to play .700 ball for at least two weeks just to catch the team in the 2nd wildcard.

Imagine one of the 7 also play at the same level? Or even two? Then you're still 3.5GB with less than 25 games to play. It's an entirely different beast chasing one team down vs half the league.

Post #40 » by **Schad** » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:17 pm

We will see what happens, but the fact remains that we're not in good shape in the Wild Card race. This week of good play has taken us from a 4.4% chance of making the playoffs on August 6th to a 6.9% chance on the 15th, per Fangraphs. Baseball Prospectus has us rising from 2.3% to 4.8% over the past week. We've vaulted up to 7% via 538, up from 4% a week before.

Taken together, that's the picture: we're somewhat more likely now than we were a week ago, but we're still massively unlikely to make the playoffs, because there are so many teams above us, and three of those teams have 3+ game leads. It's like running the 100m and stumbling out of the blocks: run a great race and you stand a good chance to catch some of your competitors, but to catch all of them you'd better run the race of your life and hope that no one else performs, because there isn't a tonne of time to make up ground.