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Jays @ Orioles

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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#41 » by ldnk » Sun Sep 3, 2017 7:38 pm

Lateral Quicks wrote:Can't believe we're giving any at-bats to Saunders at all.


Not to mention pinch hitting out a young player for him. I'm fine with the team wanting to win games but this month should be all about the kids winning in spite of a bad group of old veterans.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#42 » by wamco » Sun Sep 3, 2017 7:47 pm

Schad wrote:"Lots of money" may be a bit of an overstatement. If we re-sign Estrada, after arb and min salaries we probably have $20-25m in the budget, assuming a smallish uptick in payroll to the low $170m range.



- how much are you earmarking for Marco here? I'm so done with him
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#43 » by Schad » Sun Sep 3, 2017 7:57 pm

wamco wrote:
Schad wrote:"Lots of money" may be a bit of an overstatement. If we re-sign Estrada, after arb and min salaries we probably have $20-25m in the budget, assuming a smallish uptick in payroll to the low $170m range.



- how much are you earmarking for Marco here? I'm so done with him


Probably $14-16m. If not Estrada, it'd probably be an Estrada-like pitcher for similar...a guy with a fairly successful track record coming off a bad season, and willing to sign a 1 year or 1+1 deal.

By the way: from a statistical standpoint, there is an exact Estrada clone out there, by the name of Dan Straily. Check their 2015-2017 numbers side-by-side...it's uncanny. Different pitch mix, but their stats track almost perfectly: soft-tossers who can get swinging strikes, have identical K/BB numbers, and outpitch their advanced metrics by limiting the damage to solo home runs...except when they don't.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#44 » by Schad » Sun Sep 3, 2017 8:48 pm

To say that Ramirez pitches off his slider might be an understatement...he's throwing 75% sliders.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#45 » by zilby » Sun Sep 3, 2017 9:04 pm

Count me in on the shut Osuna down wagon. Something is seriously wrong either physically or mentally. Needs to be addressed either way.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#46 » by dagger » Sun Sep 3, 2017 9:05 pm

Schad wrote:To say that Ramirez pitches off his slider might be an understatement...he's throwing 75% sliders.


I'd say it's made some batters look silly.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#47 » by Lateral Quicks » Sun Sep 3, 2017 9:08 pm

LOL Ramirez. Now 41.2 IP without allowing an earned run. 49K:10BB.

Not bad.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#48 » by C Court » Sun Sep 3, 2017 9:21 pm

Osuna steered the tank into the ditch. Well done.

Trumbo walk-off a couple of innings later.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#49 » by wamco » Sun Sep 3, 2017 10:06 pm

Schad wrote:
wamco wrote:
Schad wrote:"Lots of money" may be a bit of an overstatement. If we re-sign Estrada, after arb and min salaries we probably have $20-25m in the budget, assuming a smallish uptick in payroll to the low $170m range.



- how much are you earmarking for Marco here? I'm so done with him


Probably $14-16m. If not Estrada, it'd probably be an Estrada-like pitcher for similar...a guy with a fairly successful track record coming off a bad season, and willing to sign a 1 year or 1+1 deal.

By the way: from a statistical standpoint, there is an exact Estrada clone out there, by the name of Dan Straily. Check their 2015-2017 numbers side-by-side...it's uncanny. Different pitch mix, but their stats track almost perfectly: soft-tossers who can get swinging strikes, have identical K/BB numbers, and outpitch their advanced metrics by limiting the damage to solo home runs...except when they don't.


Ya I ain't payin straily 15m. Marco doesn't have much leverage but colon did get 12.5m. Coulda used dickey this year, makes you appreciate him.

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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#50 » by So_Fresh » Sun Sep 3, 2017 10:27 pm

garbage.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#51 » by Schad » Sun Sep 3, 2017 10:41 pm

wamco wrote:
Schad wrote:
wamco wrote:

- how much are you earmarking for Marco here? I'm so done with him


Probably $14-16m. If not Estrada, it'd probably be an Estrada-like pitcher for similar...a guy with a fairly successful track record coming off a bad season, and willing to sign a 1 year or 1+1 deal.

By the way: from a statistical standpoint, there is an exact Estrada clone out there, by the name of Dan Straily. Check their 2015-2017 numbers side-by-side...it's uncanny. Different pitch mix, but their stats track almost perfectly: soft-tossers who can get swinging strikes, have identical K/BB numbers, and outpitch their advanced metrics by limiting the damage to solo home runs...except when they don't.


Ya I ain't payin straily 15m. Marco doesn't have much leverage but colon did get 12.5m. Coulda used dickey this year, makes you appreciate him.

Bruce and
Lynn. Via fa

Fill in the rest via trade or internal. High floor just like our front office likes


Lynn and Bruce are two of the biggest regression risks in baseball. I really don't want to be the team paying them well in excess of $40m combined for the next three or four years.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#52 » by JaysRule15 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 12:10 am

Not a bad series, considering we kept the tank going, but at the same time kept our dignity intact by not letting the Orioles walk over us. I really hope they miss the playoffs too.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#53 » by fouronesix22 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 4:40 am

JaysRule15 wrote:Not a bad series, considering we kept the tank going, but at the same time kept our dignity intact by not letting the Orioles walk over us. I really hope they miss the playoffs too.


Yeah same here. As long as the Red Sox and Yanks fail in the playoffs im a happy man
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#54 » by SharoneWright » Mon Sep 4, 2017 5:34 am

Centre Court wrote:Osuna steered the tank into the ditch. Well done.

Trumbo walk-off a couple of innings later.


I still find it hard to believe that there are 9 teams out there worse than us.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#55 » by C Court » Mon Sep 4, 2017 1:35 pm

SharoneWright wrote:
Centre Court wrote:Osuna steered the tank into the ditch. Well done.

Trumbo walk-off a couple of innings later.


I still find it hard to believe that there are 9 teams out there worse than us.


I find it hard to believe that a couple of weeks ago the Jays were just 3 back of a wildcard.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#56 » by wamco » Mon Sep 4, 2017 4:48 pm

Schad wrote:
wamco wrote:
Schad wrote:
Probably $14-16m. If not Estrada, it'd probably be an Estrada-like pitcher for similar...a guy with a fairly successful track record coming off a bad season, and willing to sign a 1 year or 1+1 deal.

By the way: from a statistical standpoint, there is an exact Estrada clone out there, by the name of Dan Straily. Check their 2015-2017 numbers side-by-side...it's uncanny. Different pitch mix, but their stats track almost perfectly: soft-tossers who can get swinging strikes, have identical K/BB numbers, and outpitch their advanced metrics by limiting the damage to solo home runs...except when they don't.


Ya I ain't payin straily 15m. Marco doesn't have much leverage but colon did get 12.5m. Coulda used dickey this year, makes you appreciate him.

Bruce and
Lynn. Via fa

Fill in the rest via trade or internal. High floor just like our front office likes


Lynn and Bruce are two of the biggest regression risks in baseball. I really don't want to be the team paying them well in excess of $40m combined for the next three or four years.



The estimates I read were 13m a year for Bruce and 18 for Lynn . That's what I was going off of. I'd do Lynn at 18 way before Marco at 15.
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Re: Jays @ Orioles 

Post#57 » by Schad » Tue Sep 5, 2017 12:17 am

wamco wrote:The estimates I read were 13m a year for Bruce and 18 for Lynn . That's what I was going off of. I'd do Lynn at 18 way before Marco at 15.


In a year with a really weak FA SP class, I'd be quite surprised if Lynn got less than a $20m AAV over 3-4 years. Could happen, but I'd expect that someone's going to look at his numbers and (with the exception of his TJ season) see a pitcher who is a model of consistency, in a year where many of the other top FAs have checkered injury histories (Darvish, Tanaka if he opts out). And if not for his peripherals getting really scary this year, 3 years, $75m plus an option would be entirely defensible.

On Bruce, I dunno. I don't think that he gets long-term money given his preceding seasons, so I'd think he's more likely to get a one year deal with an option at a pretty high annual value. Something like Bautista's 1+1 deal perhaps, as a bridge to a longer-term deal.
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