jays @ Twins, Today - Sept 17th

Post #1 » by **Schad** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:15 pm

Today and Friday: 8pm. Saturday: 7pm. Sunday: 2pm.

Starter projection: there will be starters.

Lineup projection: a mix of decrepit old dudes and young, deeply flawed dudes.

Lateral Quicks · Post #2 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:18 am

Urena says he's having more success because MLB pitchers stay around the strike zone.

Pitchers start throwing him crap, and he swings at it.

Yep, definitely work to be done in AAA next year. Still, the tools look good for the most part.

Post #3 » by **Schad** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:48 am

C'mon, Minny. I have no idea how you're good, but it's neat that you are, so I'd be happy to see you make the playoffs and upset the Yankees.

Also, if ever there was an Exhibit A for the prime-wasting majesty that is the "we cannot waste player X's prime; let's keep throwing money at old guys" argument, it's the Angels. Six years of Trout's prime, all with a top-8 payroll, and they're a bad series away from missing the playoffs for the fifth time. They've yet to win a playoff game in the Trout era.

SharoneWright · Post #4 » by **SharoneWright** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:40 am

Something wrong with these balls, man.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:02 am

Luke Maile is in rarefied territory. No player has managed 100+ PAs with a negative wRC+ since 2013, and no player since Tony Pena in 2008 has managed a wRC+ of -5 or worse in more than 125 PAs. Maile entered tonight at -4.

zilby · Post #6 » by **zilby** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:05 am

Schad wrote:Luke Maile is in rarefied territory. No player has managed 100+ PAs with a negative wRC+ since 2013, and no player since Tony Pena in 2008 has managed a wRC+ of -5 or worse in more than 125 PAs. Maile entered tonight at -4.

Remind me, a wRC+ of 100 is considered League average, correct?

Post #7 » by **Schad** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:05 am

zilby wrote:
Schad wrote:Luke Maile is in rarefied territory. No player has managed 100+ PAs with a negative wRC+ since 2013, and no player since Tony Pena in 2008 has managed a wRC+ of -5 or worse in more than 125 PAs. Maile entered tonight at -4.

Remind me, a wRC+ of 100 is considered League average, correct?

Correct. 80 would be a bad hitter, 50 is a particularly offense-challenged backup middle infielder (or Madison Bumgarner). Negatives are generally the domain of pitchers, and not all pitchers are that bad...by the numbers this season, you should strongly consider pinch-hitting for Maile with, say, Max Scherzer.

fouronesix22 · Post #8 » by **fouronesix22** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:23 am

getting walked off this many times is so normal that when it happens now I laugh

Post #9 » by **Geddy** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:02 am

Once it went to extras I just changed the channel assuming they would lose

Post #10 » by **JaysRule15** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:16 am

Do you think Shapiro and Atkins are even watching these games? Or are they in their office dressed in Cleveland jerseys watching Indians games on TV? I know I would be doing the latter.

zilby · Post #11 » by **zilby** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:33 am

JaysRule15 wrote:Do you think Shapiro and Atkins are even watching these games? Or are they in their office dressed in Cleveland jerseys watching Indians games on TV? I know I would be doing the latter.

Last I heard they were spotted at Pickles Pub having their infamous PBJ and Cream Cheese Hot Dog. (Yes, its real, and I deliberately looked up the worst thing on their menu, and somehow this is in their game day features!)

Post #12 » by **JaysRule15** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:48 am

zilby wrote:
JaysRule15 wrote:Do you think Shapiro and Atkins are even watching these games? Or are they in their office dressed in Cleveland jerseys watching Indians games on TV? I know I would be doing the latter.

Last I heard they were spotted at Pickles Pub having their infamous PBJ and Cream Cheese Hot Dog. (Yes, its real, and I deliberately looked up the worst thing on their menu, and somehow this is in their game day features!)

lmao, I was actually at Pickles Pub last summer. The IQ in that room...let's just say that a Grade 5 class here is more intelligent.

Skin Blues · Post #13 » by **Skin Blues** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:04 pm

Schad wrote:
zilby wrote:
Schad wrote:Luke Maile is in rarefied territory. No player has managed 100+ PAs with a negative wRC+ since 2013, and no player since Tony Pena in 2008 has managed a wRC+ of -5 or worse in more than 125 PAs. Maile entered tonight at -4.

Remind me, a wRC+ of 100 is considered League average, correct?

Correct. 80 would be a bad hitter, 50 is a particularly offense-challenged backup middle infielder (or Madison Bumgarner). Negatives are generally the domain of pitchers, and not all pitchers are that bad...by the numbers this season, you should strongly consider pinch-hitting for Maile with, say, Max Scherzer.

Bumgarner has really turned it up a notch the past few years, too. 2010 through the end of 2013 he had a wRC+ of 5 in 265 plate appearances. From 2014 to present, he has had a 97 wRC+ with a .213 ISO in 286 plate appearances. It's pretty amazing, really. He's hit for more power since 2014, on average, than Ryan Braun, Miggy Cabrera, George Springer... and so on. And also has a higher walk rate than Kevin Pillar, for good measure. haha. He's basically Mark Trumbo as a hitter while simultaneously being one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Natural11 · Post #14 » by **Natural11** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:11 pm

Pujols has heated up, leaving Jose with a comfortable lead in negative WAR among qualified players (-1.6). His numbers would actually be far uglier if not for a hot streak in May. This is our lead-off/clean-up hitter.

I still don't regret the signing. It would have been ugly PR to let both Edwin and Jose go following a playoff year. But I hope the Jays can consider all debts repaid w/Jose and part ways with him amicably at the end of the season. Gibbons is too loyal of a manager and if Jose is on the roster next year, even with a minimum contract, I have a feeling he will see action in an inappropriate position in the batting order.

dagger · Post #15 » by **dagger** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:34 pm

JaysRule15 wrote:Do you think Shapiro and Atkins are even watching these games? Or are they in their office dressed in Cleveland jerseys watching Indians games on TV? I know I would be doing the latter.

I don't know if they are watching the Indians, but the Jays are pretty boring. If they aren't playing the two rookies, why even bother to watch Jose Bautista make a run at the Mendoza line?

Post #16 » by **Schad** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:39 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Bumgarner has really turned it up a notch the past few years, too. 2010 through the end of 2013 he had a wRC+ of 5 in 265 plate appearances. From 2014 to present, he has had a 97 wRC+ with a .213 ISO in 286 plate appearances. It's pretty amazing, really. He's hit for more power since 2014, on average, than Ryan Braun, Miggy Cabrera, George Springer... and so on. And also has a higher walk rate than Kevin Pillar, for good measure. haha. He's basically Mark Trumbo as a hitter while simultaneously being one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The power is even more remarkable given that he doesn't see the steady diet of fastballs in the zone that most pitchers see. Among pitchers with 100+ PAs over the past three years, Syndergaard has the second-lowest FB% at 59.5%. Bumgarner's at 53.9%, and with a low pitches-in-zone total to match; teams treat him like a strikeout-prone slugger, which is pretty fair at this point, and he keep hitting dingers.

Lateral Quicks · Post #17 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:23 am

Sure would be nice to have a real clean-up hitter up in spots like that.

C Court · Post #18 » by **C Court** » Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:10 am

Jays win. Jays win. Osuna save.

Nice win for all the Jays fans from Manitoba, Thunder Bay and Saskatchewan!

Natural11 · Post #19 » by **Natural11** » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:02 pm

Nice to see Osuna hitting 96-97 on his fastball again.

Lateral Quicks · Post #20 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:33 pm

Natural11 wrote:Nice to see Osuna hitting 96-97 on his fastball again.

Yeah, and he hit 98 on the last pitch of the inning. I don't know if the Minny gun is fast or not, but he looked a lot better to my eye.

Maybe he just needed a rest. The bullpen looks to be a strength next year, so hopefully we never see him used three days in a row again, and his back-to-back outings are limited.