But in my view, this one nails it right between the eyes.
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/kelly-no-rebuild-here-jays-shapiro-charts-the-middle-way-forward-to-mediocrity-or-worse/article36271949/
Shapiro is sitting in his Rogers Centre office, which is as spare and orderly as an operatory, slapping a table for emphasis.
Given his Ivy League twinset (sweater vest, button-down shirt), linebacker build and MBA patter, everything about Shapiro screams "America." But the Canadas are contagious, especially during late summer when the Jays are tumbling toward the end of a lost season.
Back in May, when everyone was still talking as though the year could be saved (though they knew it was doomed), Shapiro sat in this same office and testily batted questions away. Asked if the team was balanced (because it isn't), he said, "I don't have to answer that."
Well, if not him, then who?
It was a down time for everyone. After all those wild nights of back-to-back playoff runs, the Blue Jays were waking up face down on the bathroom floor.
That strain showed on Shapiro. The smile was tighter, the jargon thicker.
That's changed.
As what was likely to happen has become what's happened, Shapiro is more at ease. Perhaps that's because the organization has made its decision – this aging roster will be ridden until the end. All the back-and-forth about blowing up the Blue Jays is – internally, at least – over.
"We have what we think is an objective chance to contend [next season]," Shapiro says, enunciating carefully. "Admittedly, that's contingent on us staying healthy, which is something we did two years ago and didn't this year."
So there you go – it's ride-or-die baseball for one more season, and then the whole thing begins to come apart on its own.
That will enrage some people. This sort of course – the middle way, the maybe-things-will-turn-out way – led the Jays into two uninterrupted decades of mediocrity.
Given his druthers, Shapiro might choose the other way, the risky way. He's seen how Houston and the Chicago Cubs did it – by tearing out the foundation and rebuilding entirely. If performance were the only consideration, that would be the route to take.
But the Jays are stuck between those models for financial reasons.
The Cubs had a long history of losing while also maintaining massive fan support. They could afford to string out patience on the north side of town for a few years longer.
The Astros arrived at the same solution for the opposite reason – nobody in Houston cared. There was no disadvantage to going several more seasons with a ballpark that would be just as empty.
Though a loser, Toronto is still drawing substantial crowds (fifth-most in baseball) and still has healthy TV numbers (averaging in the neighbourhood of 800,000 viewers a game in the midst of a lost September). The club knows from experience that will evaporate if the team is publicly seen to be giving up. It's a non-starter from ownership's perspective.
While going on about "the incredible passion" of Jays' fans, Shapiro also charts its limits.
"It's not something that's deeply rooted. It's not something that's long term," Shapiro says. "It's historic, but with a long interval in between (meaning 1994 to 2014). Our job is to give fans something to cheer about. Right now, the easiest thing to cheer about is winning baseball."
So there will be no sell-off or tear-down. Josh Donaldson will not be traded over the winter for prospects nor will any of the other key, young pieces. A few spots will be open – left field and/or right field, the usual toss-up at the end of the starting order. Jose Bautista will be gently released back into the marketplace. Despite his sudden decline this year, Troy Tulowitzki will remain the shortstop.
The news here is that there's no news.
Meanwhile, they'll put their faith in a minor-league system that Shapiro says is now among the top-10 in baseball. The most promising players in it are still teenagers.
At some point, the Jays will have to jump from "win right now" to whatever's coming next. It's going to be a considerable distance – a couple of depressingly mediocre years at the very least. But no one in the Jays corner suites is ever going to say the word "rebuild" in front of a microphone. There are many millions of reasons not to.
