Report: Cards expected to pursue trade for Donaldson

[Raptors Realtor]

I'm sure there will be other suitors as well ready to pony up for Donaldson should the Jays entertain the thought of trading him this offseason. What kind of return could they expect for their franchise player?... Would the Cards be willing to offer 3 of the likes of Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong... and would that be enough for Shapiro & Atkins to consider trading him instead of extending/resigning?

http://www.tsn.ca/report-cardinals-expected-to-pursue-trade-for-donaldson-1.870885

[duppyy]

Is it wrong that I don't want him traded?

[Schad]

Is it wrong that I don't want him traded?

It's not wrong, no. Just one of those things where one kinda has to make peace with the fact that it's one-and-done: enjoy 2018, prepare for some very lean years, and don't get grievously angry when we aren't the team that gives him a future-destroying contract at the end of the season.

[Raptors Realtor]

Is it wrong that I don't want him traded?

Not at all, and the Jays organization are probably not entertaining the thought considering its been reported that they're looking to retool, as opposed to rebuild this offseason. However, at some point there has to be an offer which makes sense for both the short and long term success of the Jays, especially since the Cards have quite a few prospects who are either currently in the majors or ready to make the leap.

[Schad]

One consideration: the Cards have a pretty solid 3B as it stands in Jedd Gyorko, and nowhere to shift him within their infield to accommodate Donaldson. Getting Gyorko and a good prospect (probably not Weaver or Reyes, though I'm not high on Reyes as a starter) could conceivably allow the team to sell it as filling a position of need in the rotation while getting younger and remaining competitive, and Gyorko's on a fairly friendly deal with three years of team control to go.

[fouronesix22]

ooo interesting... This is one of the toughest decisions but I dont think the Jays trade him.... The only thing we heard from Shatkins is trying to compete for 2018 and this has been the talk for the last couple of months so I dont see them doing anything here

[Lateral Quicks]

Is it wrong that I don't want him traded?

Not at all, and the Jays organization are probably not entertaining the thought considering its been reported that they're looking to retool, as opposed to rebuild this offseason. However, at some point there has to be an offer which makes sense for both the short and long term success of the Jays, especially since the Cards have quite a few prospects who are either currently in the majors or ready to make the leap.

This. They'd be stupid not to listen, and maybe a deal ends up being too good to pass up. 7-8 WAR players don't grow on trees and they'll insist on a king's ransom in return.

[flatjacket1]

The goal is to win a world series, and although rebuilding make sense in some aspects if you have any marginal shot at contending that makes oodles more sense.

Rebuilds don't always go well. Teams like KC who went through like a 30 year rebuild wasn't exactly planned. It's easy to dream on the prospects you acquire but if you look at any teams playoff drought that's exactly what they tried, time and time again. A lot of times you trade Roy Halladay for Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek and they turn out to be Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek. A marginal shot next year is worth so much more than another 20 year drought.

I totally understand it makes sense logically to sell off assets that are expiring to better your odds at contending a few years down the road, but acting like it is any way a lock to make playoffs anytime soon by selling off assets is totally wrong. Realistically speaking based on other teams rebuilds we could be looking at a 2028-2032 playoff berth assuming Rogers doesn't decide that years of losing is killing their share holders value and go back to the Oakland strategy.

The amount of unknowns in trying to rebuild means that if you have a chance to overextend and maybe get 1 more playoff year- I take the playoff year every time. As I said in the other thread, retooling by trading Donaldson does kinda make sense but again presents unique risks as well. Really don't mind either way.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

The goal is to win a world series, and although rebuilding make sense in some aspects if you have any marginal shot at contending that makes oodles more sense.

Eh, not really. Not when it's this marginal. If one or both of the Sox and Yankees sucked, maybe, but they are both 90+ win teams with every chance to be as good or better next year. We'll be fighting an uphill battle for a chance of making the Wild Card, barring a miracle, at which point we'd have an 6% shot of winning a title. The math ain't great.

Rebuilds don't always go well. Teams like KC who went through like a 30 year rebuild wasn't exactly planned. It's easy to dream on the prospects you acquire but if you look at any teams playoff drought that's exactly what they tried, time and time again. A lot of times you trade Roy Halladay for Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek and they turn out to be Brett Wallace and Kyle Drabek. A marginal shot next year is worth so much more than another 20 year drought.

Taking marginal shots is in large part what resulted in a 20 year drought. Seriously, look at the trades we made in the Gord Ash era and tell me with a straight face that we were rebuilding for any substantial fraction of that.

I totally understand it makes sense logically to sell off assets that are expiring to better your odds at contending a few years down the road, but acting like it is any way a lock to make playoffs anytime soon by selling off assets is totally wrong. Realistically speaking based on other teams rebuilds we could be looking at a 2028-2032 playoff berth assuming Rogers doesn't decide that years of losing is killing their share holders value and go back to the Oakland strategy.

No one has ever suggested that it's a lock, at least as far as I have seen. I'm about as pro-rebuild as anyone, and I consistently add the caveat that it's no guarantee of success, because there are no guarantees of success with any management route.

[The_Hater]

Is it wrong that I don't want him traded?

He just had (arguably) the best 3 year run in franchise history, he's a gamer and a very likeable player. The most popular Jay since Alomar? So no, it's definitely not wrong. Who doesn't love JD. But sometimes you have to sacrifice short term enjoyment for something long term.

[Tanner]

I think you can trade Donaldson and still try to contend in 2018. Even with JD they are looking at a 2nd WC spot at best, and after the top four teams in the AL, there is a whole bunch of junk. The key is to blend just enough short term improvement with long term upside in whatever return you get for him. The Cardinals have a solid 3b already locked up for two more years and a team option. If the Jays got him in return, and then two or three other prospects ranging from big league ready (Reyes/Flaherty) to a bit away (Sierra/Alcantara), then you can work around that. Gyorko is about a 2 win player. Maybe the starter they get back can add a win or two as well, and then you have a bunch of money left over to fill other holes to make up the difference.

You don't need a scorched earth rebuild, and given the unpredictably of prospects I'd rather not trade JD for a bunch of lotto tickets. The Cards present a pretty good opportunity to stay in both lanes while also improving the farm system.

[Schad]

Yeah, I don't think that it'd make us more likely to contend (granted: I don't think we're terribly likely to do so in any instance), but it's not entirely unthinkable that something like Gyorko/Flaherty/$15m in freed-up salary could lead to results comparable to simply having Donaldson alone plus whatever we can dredge in free agency.

Suddenly we'd have the money to kick the tires on any of the higher-value OF options that might be available and find themselves willing to listen on high-AAV, short-term deals, or go for a bit of versatility by throwing some coin at Eduardo Nunez and a mid-rotation starter (because "oh no, we have six viable starting options entering the season" generally becomes "well, we have five starters with arms" midway through preseason).

[Tanner]

The Cards also have an abundance of outfielders, in the minors and majors. If the Jays wanted to focus more on short term contention and controllability of their big league assets, then adding Gyorko plus one of their outfielders, in addition to a starter like Flaherty who can jump into the rotation right away in '18, fits both objectives. That would be disappointing for those who want prospects to fit more of the Vlad/Bo timeline, but from an organizational standpoint, the Jays would be getting back assets far more likely to maintain or improve in value going that direction than trying for prospects that are 2-3 years away. I mean, if you end up with Gyorko, Flaherty, and Grichuk for example as the return, then suddenly you start to see projected wins closer to evening out a bit between JD and the players coming back, while making the team younger, more cost controlled, and with money to add more.

[BramptonYute]

hopefully they do blow management away with an offer.

[-MetA4-]

Keith Law's chat today:

Dane Iorg: Who says no to this deal: Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, and Jedd Gyorko for Josh Donaldson. Cards? Jays? Both? Neither?

Keith Law: I think the Cards would and should say no to that. Very likely everyday catcher, with some upside beyond that; very likely back-end starter with modest upside; both major-league ready and cheap for six years. Ton of value there, and we’re not talking about highly volatile A-ball kids.

[C Court]

hopefully they do blow management away with an offer.

Yup. And then other teams get wind of what it will take and they raise the ante to land Josh.

[Raptors Realtor]

Keith Law's chat today:

Dane Iorg: Who says no to this deal: Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, and Jedd Gyorko for Josh Donaldson. Cards? Jays? Both? Neither?

Keith Law: I think the Cards would and should say no to that. Very likely everyday catcher, with some upside beyond that; very likely back-end starter with modest upside; both major-league ready and cheap for six years. Ton of value there, and we’re not talking about highly volatile A-ball kids.

I say no... Carson Kelly can't be the best prospect coming back, and Flaherty isn't that appealing. Gyorko is decent, but will be 30 next season.

[Tanner]

I wonder if the Cardinals would give up Reyes? He is coming off Tommy john surgery so he will likely miss the first half of next season (or a couple of months at least), but tremendous upside. I'd prefer him over Flaherty even with the injury, but don't know if the Cardinals would move him for a rental.

[Schad]

I say no... Carson Kelly can't be the best prospect coming back, and Flaherty isn't that appealing. Gyorko is decent, but will be 30 next season.

I'd do it in a heartbeat, and then consider flipping Kelly for a pitcher. That's a lot of return for a rental, and at this point Donaldson is a rental for us as much as he is any suitor. A league-average-or-better 3B with years of control, one of the best C prospects in baseball, and a probably-ready mid-rotation starter is a pretty damned good package at this point.