Davidi: Donaldson Tells Blue Jays He Wants To Stay in Toronto

[C Court]

According to Shi Davidi, Josh told the Jays a few weeks that he wants to remain a Blue Jay long term. Josh went on the record to confirm the conversation he had with Ross Atkins.

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[JaysRule15]

It's good to hear, but doesn't really mean anything imo. "Stay in Toronto" basically means I'll stay here if they pay me the most. Melky said the same thing, so did Edwin, to use a couple of recent examples.

[C Court]

This is a little different because Josh approached the Jays with a few weeks left in the season. The others may have said the right thing to the media, but thats what every player will say when asked.

Josh might be thinking that it's best for him to lock into big bucks now with Toronto and not risk an off year or an injury in 2018. The other issue is his age and the fact that he is part of an exceptional free agent class.

[Schad]

Yeah, it makes a lot of sense for Donaldson to see whether he can get a contract now that'll cover the rest of his career. Does it make sense for us to give him that contract? Not really.

[C Court]

Yeah, it makes a lot of sense for Donaldson to see whether he can get a contract now that'll cover the rest of his career. Does it make sense for us to give him that contract? Not really.

Yup. The best move for the Jays is still to trade Josh.

[North_of_Border]

Jose seemed like a lock to stay dominant well into his older days. It was a safe bet. And the Jays believed this as they offered him a huge contract, which he rejected of course. But look how that turned out. 2 years down the road, Jose is trash.

Donaldson is a beast. Maybe next year too. Maybe the year after too. But it will have to be a long term deal. He wants to cash in on his only big contract of the late bloomer career. That’s what worries me.... I’m sure Colorado though Tulo would keep raking. Look how that turned out.

This is risky. I think the Jays should keep that in mind. Maybe pay him a bonus for a shorter term. Don’t do a poison pill contract.

[North_of_Border]

One thought though.

If Donaldson is locked up for say 4-5 years. And he is beast next couple of seasons. But the Jays suck.

Would Donaldson have a Higher Price on the trade market?..... that might not be too bad


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[Schad]

One thought though.

If Donaldson is locked up for say 4-5 years. And he is beast next couple of seasons. But the Jays suck.

Would Donaldson have a Higher Price on the trade market?..... that might not be too bad

Probably take 5-7 years to lock him up now. Cannot see any chance that he signs a four year deal

As for trade value, hard to say. He has less of it now as a rental, certainly, but if he was approaching his age 34 season with four years remaining at a high AAV, we probably don't get a king's ransom for him.

[Lateral Quicks]

Well that's interesting. He's not a free agent, so he certainly didn't need to approach the front office. Perhaps he saw what happened to Bautista and wants some contract security.

I would do 4 years - including 2018, his final arbitration year - at $30M AAV. That would cover his age 32-35 years. Anything more than that in term or dollars and I'd trade him or let him play out 2018.

[JaysRule15]

Four years plus a mutual option would be my best offer to him this offseason. He'll likely refuse that. Next year's FA class will be stacked, but plenty of teams have been clearing salary room. Teams that might lose out on a guy like Machado might decide to give a big chunk of that money to Josh. I think he'll do alright for himself as long as he stays healthy and plays like he did in the second half this season.

So unless he's willing to put his money where his mouth is and offer to take a discount to stay in Toronto, I'd look at trading him (at the deadline if not this offseason) and let some other team give him a 5-7 year contract in free agency next offseason.

[Skin Blues]

Well that's interesting. He's not a free agent, so he certainly didn't need to approach the front office. Perhaps he saw what happened to Bautista and wants some contract security.

I would do 4 years - including 2018, his final arbitration year - at $30M AAV. That would cover his age 32-35 years. Anything more than that in term or dollars and I'd trade him or let him play out 2018.

I don't think it's even worth discussing a 3 year contract extension. He'll get 5 at minimum, and he's at very low risk to drop in value before next offseason.

[Tanner]

I don't see why people are so scared of an extension for Donaldson. Will he decline in the final years of any contract he signs? Of course he will. That's how practically all big contracts end up. Is there a chance JD can live up to the dollar value of the deal if he does sign a long year extension? Probably. Depends on the dollar amount, but $150-180mm is probably doable if he has 2 or 3 more elite years in him before he falls off.

I really don't care which direction they go with JD, I trust the front office to do the right thing, but I don't think an extension is some franchise crippling move. By the time he falls off, the team should have already rid themselves of Tulo/Martin's deals, and should ideally have some cheap production from their prospects by then. By the time they have to pay Vlad and Bo big money, JD's deal is probably gone too.

[North_of_Border]

Donaldson is taking a lesson from what happened to Bautista.... the Blue Jays should do the same.

Know what I mean?




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[Natural11]

Unless he wants to sign 3-4 years with a hometown discount, I'd prefer the one year arbitration deal. I'd like to see a more consistent season from him before a big extension. When he's on, he is a true MVP. We've seen that for a handful of series this year. Then as quick as it comes on, he begins an inexplicable slump and struggles to make any meaningful contact for days. His numbers still look good in 400+ AB, it just seemed like all of the offense came in big lumps with a lot of dead spots in between. Power was up, but so were strikeouts. Best to wait until next season to get a better idea of where the team is going, and see if there are any further signs of decline from JD.

[Schad]

I don't see why people are so scared of an extension for Donaldson. Will he decline in the final years of any contract he signs? Of course he will. That's how practically all big contracts end up. Is there a chance JD can live up to the dollar value of the deal if he does sign a long year extension? Probably. Depends on the dollar amount, but $150-180mm is probably doable if he has 2 or 3 more elite years in him before he falls off.

I really don't care which direction they go with JD, I trust the front office to do the right thing, but I don't think an extension is some franchise crippling move. By the time he falls off, the team should have already rid themselves of Tulo/Martin's deals, and should ideally have some cheap production from their prospects by then. By the time they have to pay Vlad and Bo big money, JD's deal is probably gone too.

Remember, though: you can't really count next year's production in terms of the value of an extension. We already have him next year. It's purely his age 33+ seasons that we'd be buying out; we'd be banking on him remaining elite at 34, and there aren't many such players.

Let's say that Donaldson signs for 5 years, $160m, which sounds about right in terms of annual value though there's a good chance he'd want an extra year. 1 year, $23m or thereabouts is really just his final arb season, so the extension itself is $137m over 4 years for all intents and purposes. To be worth that (assuming that the average fWAR/$ value is something like $10m for the course of his deal, because I'm lazy), he'd need to post 13.7 fWAR.

And 13.7 fWAR sounds pretty doable when the guy's putting up 6+ in a healthy season, but it's not at all common these days. From 2007 on (when MLB banned amphetamines), only four players -- Beltre, Ichiro, Nelson Cruz and Jeter -- have exceeded 13.7 fWAR by any substantive amount from ages 33 through 36. Another couple met that threshold. So, rare is the player who would be worth what we'd end up paying him, and rarer still is the player who outperforms the dollars paid.

You kinda hand-wave it because we'll have cheap production from the minors when his contract becomes a boat anchor, but that's the absolute worst time to have such a deal on our hands. Players come up much more ready to compete today than once was the case, and consequently the best time to make a push in the modern game is when you have a bunch of key players making peanuts, because you can allocate money elsewhere. If instead we're paying $35m+ to a badly faded version of Donaldson, we'll be severely undermining what should be a very competitive time for our team.

[C Court]

Perhaps he saw what happened to Bautista and wants some contract security.

This. He saw Bautista, he saw Edwin and he saw some power hitters settle for one year deals. If he can get next year plus three more big dollar years guaranteed, then do it now. Jose turned down 3/$75M and instead cost himself a ton of money.

[fouronesix22]

Honestly, part of me wants to trade Josh so we can get some quality prospects and start a rebuild without even thinking 2018 playoffs. But also I want to keep Josh because he is an MVP caliber player as we have seen when healthy. I was pissed when we didnt re-sign Price but then realized how much boston paid for him, than we didnt re-sign Edwin and that really pissed me off because of how good he is doing in Cleveland.

Than the whole narrative would come up if Josh were traded or if we just let him walk that "Nobody wants to play in Toronto" starts coming up in the media. That pisses me off when I hear that BS. I just hope Shapiro and Atkins do the right thing here because I want to look forward to the 2018 season and beyond.

[North_of_Border]

Imagine if the Jays were not locked to 20 million per season to Tulo. The options they would have now. Imagine if theHays were not Locked to 20 million for Martin, even if it’s just 1 more year. Imagine the freedom and moves possible. Even Morales.

Imagine if Vlad and Bo and all are tarring up the MLB. But the Jays can’t add significant help because they owe Donaldson 35 million per year for 2-3 more years.

Stay away.... fleece the Cardinals make em over pay. And run like you never ran before.


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[Mehar]

I would make a deal with the Cardinals, and get back some of their young talent, that can help this organization for many years to come. I am not comfortable paying Donaldson 25-30 M on a 5-6 year deal, at his age. It would be a mistake. This organization will have egg on its face if they lose Donaldson for nothing after next year.

A team like the Cardinals would be great trade partners, and you can get a solid return from them. This organization should not think about only 2018, but the long-term picture. It is time to deal Donaldson, and also maybe have a team swallow the contract of Morales, in exchange for some younger top-tier talent.

[Skin Blues]

I don't see why people are so scared of an extension for Donaldson.

Go look at every single mega contract given to a player in their 30's. That's the reason.

Is there a chance JD can live up to the dollar value of the deal if he does sign a long year extension? Probably. Depends on the dollar amount, but $150-180mm is probably doable if he has 2 or 3 more elite years in him before he falls off.

a) he won't be signing for only $150-$180M
b) there's next to no chance he's worth close to that much over the entire remainder of his career, anyway.

Miguel Cabrera signed an 8/$240M extension that hasn't even begun yet and he's already 34 years old. Donaldson has put up 3 seasons of 7.6+ WAR which is something Miggy has never done once. Pujols also signed for $240M, at age 32. Cano, $240M at age 31 (and not nearly the player Donaldson is). David Price, a 30 year old pitcher, got $214M. If you don't think Donaldson is gonna cash in for a hell of a lot more than $150M, you're in for a surprise.