2018 Salary Situation

[bluerap23]

MLBTR has released arbitration estimates. I think some of them are off but within ballpark. https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/10/10/16441692/mlbtr-releases-projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018-blue-jays

Based on the above here is the current 25 man roster before any additions are made with salary projections.
Obviously a lot will change. I don't expect Maile or the outfield bench to stick with the team but they will likely be replaced by young guys with the same salary. Currently this projects to under 140.8 million. 2017 opening day 25 man was over 163 million. So we should have around 25 million to play with. Major areas of need include starting pitcher, OF bat and middle infield depth. Hopefully they can offload some additional salary (Pearce) to increase the off-season budget.

1B Smoak
2B Travis
SS Tulo
3B Donaldson
OF Pillar
OF Hernandez
OF Pearce
C Martin
DH Morales

SP Stroman
SP Sanchez
SP Happ
SP Estrada
SP Biagini

RP Osuna
RP Tepera
RP Barnes
RP Loup
RP Dermody
RP Leone
RP Schultz

Bench
Goins
Carrera
Pompey
Maile



Troy Tulowitzki 20
Russell Martin 20
Marco Estrada 13
J.A. Happ 13
Kendrys Morales 11
Josh Donaldson 20.7
Steve Pearce 6.25
Justin Smoak 4.12
Marcus Stroman 7.2
Ezequiel Carrera 1.9
Aaron Loup 1.8
Kevin Pillar 4
Roberto Osuna 5.6
Ryan Goins 1.8
Dominic Leone 0.545
Devon Travis 1.7
Bo Schultz 0.545
Joe Biagini 0.545
Ryan Tepera 0.545
Dalton Pompey 0.545
Aaron Sanchez 1.9
Luke Maile 0.545
Teoscar Hernandez 0.545
Danny Barnes 0.545
Matt Dermody 0.545

Dead Money
Jose Bautista 0.5
Lourdes Gurriel 1.429
140.8

[Schad]

Thanks for this. Beyond the 25-man, we'll be paying a $500k buyout for Bautista and $1.43m for Gurriel, taking our overall payroll to $140.8m.

We got a bit of a gift on Sanchez; I'm surprised that his figure is that low even coming off a final pre-arb season where he barely played, but it does give us the teeniest chance of negotiating an extension, because he'll be grossly underpaid for his arb years. Is only a teensy chance owing to Boras, though.

[guvernator]

So... add a SP like Cobb, move Biagini down to the pen, hope for health and give it one last shot (another playoff run could also convince JD to stay). This time we also have depth in the upper minors. So, unless projections are calling for big dropoffs in production from the regulars, Jays need to go for it.

[bluerap23]

Thanks for this. Beyond the 25-man, we'll be paying a $500k buyout for Bautista and $1.43m for Gurriel, taking our overall payroll to $140.8m.

We got a bit of a gift on Sanchez; I'm surprised that his figure is that low even coming off a final pre-arb season where he barely played, but it does give us the teeniest chance of negotiating an extension, because he'll be grossly underpaid for his arb years. Is only a teensy chance owing to Boras, though.

Thanks. Forgot about those 2. I’ve updated the numbers to include them now. Too bad Gurriel isn’t ready to contribute. Would be great if he could take Goins spot so we could save on his salary.

I was also surprised by the Sanchez number. I think he may come in higher but would love to see him locked up with that projection as leverage.

[Schad]

So... add a SP like Cobb, move Biagini down to the pen, hope for health and give it one last shot (another playoff run could also convince JD to stay). This time we also have depth in the upper minors. So, unless projections are calling for big dropoffs in production from the regulars, Jays need to go for it.

We don't need to convince JD to stay. We could easily sign him to an extension, it's just a matter of throwing a massive contract his way, something we really shouldn't do at his age.

We still don't really have good upper minors depth, not in pitching. We'll have Borucki and Pannone, but that's our 13th and 21st-best prospects, and Borucki only has 52 IP above A-ball...if either of them gives us productive innings next year, it counts as a surprise. I think Borucki has a shot, but he's not dissimilar to Matt Boyd back in 2015: a finesse lefty who dominated in the minors, but was lit up in his first shot at the majors.

[BramptonYute]

we can afford stanton, go get him

[guvernator]

So... add a SP like Cobb, move Biagini down to the pen, hope for health and give it one last shot (another playoff run could also convince JD to stay). This time we also have depth in the upper minors. So, unless projections are calling for big dropoffs in production from the regulars, Jays need to go for it.

We don't need to convince JD to stay. We could easily sign him to an extension, it's just a matter of throwing a massive contract his way, something we really shouldn't do at his age.

We still don't really have good upper minors depth, not in pitching. We'll have Borucki and Pannone, but that's our 13th and 21st-best prospects, and Borucki only has 52 IP above A-ball...if either of them gives us productive innings next year, it counts as a surprise. I think Borucki has a shot, but he's not dissimilar to Matt Boyd back in 2015: a finesse lefty who dominated in the minors, but was lit up in his first shot at the majors.

From SRF/Zeuch/Pearson(later in the year), I'm counting on one to make the jump. Ofcourse, by depth I mean, handful of starts. If someone like sanchez, goes down for an extended amount of time again, jays will be in trouble. No guarantees with this team. Obvious. We wouldnt be contemplating teardown otherwise.

[Schad]

From SRF/Zeuch/Pearson(later in the year), I'm counting on one to make the jump. Ofcourse, by depth I mean, handful of starts. If someone like sanchez, goes down for an extended amount of time again, jays will be in trouble. No guarantees with this team. Obvious. We wouldnt be contemplating teardown otherwise.

Pearson hasn't even pitched in full-season ball...there's no chance he zooms through four minor league levels and starts for the major league club in 2018 (I could see him relieving in exceptional circumstances, but it would be a seriously shortsighted decision a la Castro/Osuna). Zeuch is possible, but he hasn't pitched above A-ball and missed most of the year injured, so it's unlikely. And SRF, well...there's no question the stuff is there, but it'd take a huge step forward in his command to make him a major league starter in short order.

And we could trade for Stanton. It'd probably cost us Vlad + something, or Bichette + Alford, but we technically could do it. We'd also then have virtually no chance of keeping together the rest of the team unless Rogers spends into the luxury tax, which simply isn't happening.

[dagger]

From SRF/Zeuch/Pearson(later in the year), I'm counting on one to make the jump. Ofcourse, by depth I mean, handful of starts. If someone like sanchez, goes down for an extended amount of time again, jays will be in trouble. No guarantees with this team. Obvious. We wouldnt be contemplating teardown otherwise.

Pearson hasn't even pitched in full-season ball...there's no chance he zooms through four minor league levels and starts for the major league club in 2018 (I could see him relieving in exceptional circumstances, but it would be a seriously shortsighted decision a la Castro/Osuna). Zeuch is possible, but he hasn't pitched above A-ball and missed most of the year injured, so it's unlikely. And SRF, well...there's no question the stuff is there, but it'd take a huge step forward in his command to make him a major league starter in short order.

And we could trade for Stanton. It'd probably cost us Vlad + something, or Bichette + Alford, but we technically could do it. We'd also then have virtually no chance of keeping together the rest of the team unless Rogers spends into the luxury tax, which simply isn't happening.

Not contesting you on Zeuch, just would mention he pitched three perfect innings in AFL with four Ks today.

[Schad]

Not contesting you on Zeuch, just would mention he pitched three perfect innings in AFL with four Ks today.

Zeuch doesn't get enough credit in part because he hasn't pitched that much in the pros, but he probably has the best chance of being a top three starter of anyone who pitched full-season last year...has the heavy groundball tendencies but seems to be able to miss bats, as well. But with his lack of pro innings, I wouldn't expect it to happen in 2018.

[Tanner]

Not that it matters since it is only $500k, but I'm pretty sure Bautista's buyout counts against 2017 payroll, not 2018.

Of the arb eligible players, I'd say all will be tendered except Koehler, who I actually expect to be brought back as a reliever, just not at his arb price. I can't see him having any sort of market as a starter, so he might be willing to sign back with the Jays for less.

[BramptonYute]

I wonder if theres a deal out there where the Jays take on a bigger contract at a position of need and send Morales the other way.

How many teams out there want/need a guy like Morales tho lol

[Wo1verine]

We saved big by firing a million people. Should allow us to put those savings on Atkins and Shapiro's favorite player Jay Bruce