Your $30m spending spree

[Schad]

A decent-enough time-waster: using the MLBTR contract projections for free agents, how would you divvy the estimated $30m that the Jays will have to spend in the offseason?

Rules:

No trades, because that inevitably devolves into debates over whether you're giving up enough/too much. Just free agent signings.

Stick to the MLBTR contract value/length figures. I don't care that you think that Darvish will sign a 3 year, $10m deal here because he is a huge fan of Toronto's public transit.

Annual pay raises are allowed, within reason. If you're signing Jay Bruce for the 3 years, $39m listed, you can structure it as $11m, $14m and $14m, because that's rational. You cannot structure it $5m, $5m, $34m, because that's not.

[guvernator]

5 yrs/90 million to Alex cobb, 1 yr/10 million to Carlos Gonzalez, 3 yrs/20 million to Bryan Shaw.

[BramptonYute]

If I had 30 mill, I guess these are the guys id go after considering the Jays situation.

Vargas 1/10
Bruce 3/39 (11/13/15) (mostly because the jays have been linked to him before)
Nunez 2/14 (6/8)

10+11+6=27. Leaves 3 mill to sign a backup catcher and some depth SP's which might not be enough, idk. Might be able to move Pearce to open some salary if need be, but we're not supposed to get into trades so oh well.

[Schad]

5 yrs/90 million to Alex cobb, 1 yr/10 million to Carlos Gonzalez, 3 yrs/20 million to Bryan Shaw.

Heh, you didn't use the MLBTR numbers, but oddly that meant that you spent a hell of a lot more on those players than they have pegged. Cobb's at 4 years, $48m, Gonzalez at 1 year, $12m.

[guvernator]

5 yrs/90 million to Alex cobb, 1 yr/10 million to Carlos Gonzalez, 3 yrs/20 million to Bryan Shaw.

Heh, you didn't use the MLBTR numbers, but oddly that meant that you spent a hell of a lot more on those players than they have pegged. Cobb's at 4 years, $48m, Gonzalez at 1 year, $12m.

Right. Cobb's injury history is going to cost him some.

Second Scenario:
6 yrs 170 million to Yu Darvish
1 yr 5 million to Otani - Having another Japanese star may make Toronto a slightly more (however much that is) attractive option.

[Lateral Quicks]

I'd address our most pressing needs that we can't realistically fill immediately from within the organization and stop there. Now's not that the time to be making big commitments to veteran players.

Tyler Chatwood - 3 years, $20M -> cheap starting depth, in prime years, stats away from Colorado much better
Jake McGee - 3 years, $18M -> badly needed veteran lefty out of the pen
Eduardo Nunez - 2 years, $14M -> badly needed replacement for Goins and Barney

That's only about $20M, less with raises built in. Very doable, though I suspect Chatwood gets more.

[Schad]

I'm going to go for deeply weird and upside-y.

Miles Mikolas - 2 years, $10m. Big league flameout that made a name for himself as a starter in Japan. As an added bonus, he'd have team control beyond the contract length.

Tyler Chatwood - 3 years, $21m ($6m, $7m, $8m). As above. Has the fringe benefit that he'd probably be a lethal back-end reliever if one gave up on him as a starter.

Carlos Gonzalez - 1 year, $12m. Been a long time since he was anything approaching a star, but so long as he's kept far away from left-handed pitching his bat ought to play.

Eduardo Nunez - 2 years, $14m. Because apparently we're all going in that direction.

Intentionally, that'd leave us with six starters, because I think we pretty well need such. Between the continuing questions around Sanchez's finger and Estrada's ability to limit homers to one per inning, we really could use some insurance on the roster. Debated between going this route or adding to an already good bullpen, hoping to get 5 IP a start and then ride the relievers.

The odds that this would go poorly are very, very good.

[dagger]

Bruce and Avila and save the rest of the money, if any, for 2019. Or trade Donaldson and Happ and sign no one.

[TheShocker]

-Tyler Chatwood 3y/20m - Good numbers away from Coors. High GB%. Solid upside to provide plus value on his deal. I doubt he goes this cheap.

-Jay Bruce 3y/39m- Vet slugger. I don't even really want him but i see management going after him. Fits with the rest of our aging unathletic core of position players.

-Eduardo Nunez 2y/14m- I have doubts he goes this cheap. Good fit for the current construction of our team. Can play almost anywhere. Hopefully we can get rid of Morales to open up the DH spot for Nunez to cover while our vets rotate through DH.

=Brett Anderson 1y/3m - Besides imploding the one game i thought he was decent. Good depth piece though i suspect he gets a rotation spot elsewhere and for more money.

[Wally West]

I'm going to go for deeply weird and upside-y.

Miles Mikolas - 2 years, $10m. Big league flameout that made a name for himself as a starter in Japan. As an added bonus, he'd have team control beyond the contract length.

Tyler Chatwood - 3 years, $21m ($6m, $7m, $8m). As above. Has the fringe benefit that he'd probably be a lethal back-end reliever if one gave up on him as a starter.

Carlos Gonzalez - 1 year, $12m. Been a long time since he was anything approaching a star, but so long as he's kept far away from left-handed pitching his bat ought to play.

Eduardo Nunez - 2 years, $14m. Because apparently we're all going in that direction.

Intentionally, that'd leave us with six starters, because I think we pretty well need such. Between the continuing questions around Sanchez's finger and Estrada's ability to limit homers to one per inning, we really could use some insurance on the roster. Debated between going this route or adding to an already good bullpen, hoping to get 5 IP a start and then ride the relievers.

The odds that this would go poorly are very, very good.

Was going to post but then I saw this. Took the words right out of my mouth with this post lol! I'd do every single one of these deals. Nikolas is interesting. Chatwood would potentially be my 6th starter depending on what happens to everyone else. His stuff and the fact that he's leaving Coors will play up for sure.

[JaysRule15]

Bring back Brett Lawrie. And I'm only half joking. He did say he was interested in coming back, and we'll need an infielder who can play a lot since it's a given Travis and Tulo go down next year.

[bluerap23]

I'm going to go for deeply weird and upside-y.

Miles Mikolas - 2 years, $10m. Big league flameout that made a name for himself as a starter in Japan. As an added bonus, he'd have team control beyond the contract length.

Tyler Chatwood - 3 years, $21m ($6m, $7m, $8m). As above. Has the fringe benefit that he'd probably be a lethal back-end reliever if one gave up on him as a starter.

Carlos Gonzalez - 1 year, $12m. Been a long time since he was anything approaching a star, but so long as he's kept far away from left-handed pitching his bat ought to play.

Eduardo Nunez - 2 years, $14m. Because apparently we're all going in that direction.

Intentionally, that'd leave us with six starters, because I think we pretty well need such. Between the continuing questions around Sanchez's finger and Estrada's ability to limit homers to one per inning, we really could use some insurance on the roster. Debated between going this route or adding to an already good bullpen, hoping to get 5 IP a start and then ride the relievers.

The odds that this would go poorly are very, very good.

I’d way rather pay Gonzalez for 1 year than Bruce for 3. Not sure what this organization’s obsession is with Bruce.

[Tanner]

I'm going to go for deeply weird and upside-y.

Miles Mikolas - 2 years, $10m. Big league flameout that made a name for himself as a starter in Japan. As an added bonus, he'd have team control beyond the contract length.

Tyler Chatwood - 3 years, $21m ($6m, $7m, $8m). As above. Has the fringe benefit that he'd probably be a lethal back-end reliever if one gave up on him as a starter.

Carlos Gonzalez - 1 year, $12m. Been a long time since he was anything approaching a star, but so long as he's kept far away from left-handed pitching his bat ought to play.

Eduardo Nunez - 2 years, $14m. Because apparently we're all going in that direction.

Intentionally, that'd leave us with six starters, because I think we pretty well need such. Between the continuing questions around Sanchez's finger and Estrada's ability to limit homers to one per inning, we really could use some insurance on the roster. Debated between going this route or adding to an already good bullpen, hoping to get 5 IP a start and then ride the relievers.

The odds that this would go poorly are very, very good.

I’d way rather pay Gonzalez for 1 year than Bruce for 3. Not sure what this organization’s obsession is with Bruce.

What obsession? They traded for him once when the Reds were picking up $8m in cash, and then the deal fell through because someone failed their physical. At the time, Saunders was coming off knee surgery, while Bruce was coming off two down seasons, but if you looked at his batted ball profile, there was reason to expect a bounce back offensively, which he did in 2016-17. Plus, Bruce had a team option for 2017, which was more beneficial to the team than losing Saunders for nothing. Other than that, what obsession exists? They didn't trade for him at the deadline in 2016 or at any point in 2017 when they probably could have gotten him for nothing significant.

The media keeps linking him to the Jays. Maybe they will end up signing him, who knows, but other than the one trade two years ago, there is nothing to suggest they are crazy about him. If they sign him now it will be because they need a RF who can hit, something they don't have in the org right now.

[dballislife]

15mill OF and 15mill SP

[Lateral Quicks]

The media keeps linking him to the Jays. Maybe they will end up signing him, who knows, but other than the one trade two years ago, there is nothing to suggest they are crazy about him. If they sign him now it will be because they need a RF who can hit, something they don't have in the org right now.

That's premature. Alford and Hernandez may have something to say about that this year.

[Tanner]

The media keeps linking him to the Jays. Maybe they will end up signing him, who knows, but other than the one trade two years ago, there is nothing to suggest they are crazy about him. If they sign him now it will be because they need a RF who can hit, something they don't have in the org right now.

That's premature. Alford and Hernandez may have something to say about that this year.

It would not surprise me if Hernandez wins an outfield spot out of spring training, and I would be fine with that, but you can't assume that he is already an average to above average big league hitter, especially with his K% in September.

[Skin Blues]

I think at this point, it's Teoscar's spot to lose. Alford and Pompey can compete with Carrera for the other spot, and if one wins it, Carrera probably goes to 4th OF and the other of Alford/Pompey goes to Buffalo. Neither of those two are any kind of sure thing though, so I can see us adding a cheap stop-gap OF.

[dballislife]

if we serious about contending next season, we gotta add cain and cobb, or similar impact players at OF and SP

travis
cain
josh
smoak
morales
tulo
martin
pearce/hernandez
pillar

stroman
sanchez
happ
cobb
estrada

it looks good, if healthy, potential to make playoffs is there for sure

[Schad]

Cobb's not really an impact top-of-the-rotation starter...he's a solid mid-rotation guy if he can stay healthy. His K rate collapsed last year, and his advanced metrics weren't particularly kind, either. Pitched better in the second half, but the Rays were also handling him with kid gloves; he was yanked before his 100th pitch nine times in his final ten starts. That's more red flags than I'd like to see on a guy mooted for a four year deal, even on a lower AAV.

After Darvish, the SP free agent class overall is really, really scary. You have Arrieta, whose velocity is plummeting, Lynn, whose K/BB ratio got much worse and who was mostly bailed out by an abnormally low BABIP, and Cobb. Not an offseason where I'd want to be handing over a long-term deal to a starter.

[flatjacket1]

Alex Cobb 12M/year
Wade Davis 15M/year
Michael Pineda 3M/year

If I really wanted a bat I might downgrade Davis to Steve Cishek (save 8M/year) and pick up Nunez (7M/year).

Assuming the goal is to win, pitching is where we are going to have issues IMO.