Offseason, 2017-2018

[Black Watch]

I'll start:

Bautista's option has been officially declined.

All offseason comings and goings to be posted in this thread.

[fouronesix22]

do we want Jay Bruce? Wouldnt mind him as a jose replacement

[Schad]

Bruce was terrible in 2014, 2015 and 2016, before being above-average in 2017. Not really a player I'd want to give three or four years to.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

17. Jay Bruce, RF, free agent — Bruce had a big season and the lefthanded power bat is expected to draw interest from the Blue Jays, who were after him during the season. The Indians may attempt to retain him, but they also have Carlos Santana entering free agency and there’s sentiment to re-sign him as well.

[Lateral Quicks]

Over the last three years, Bruce has put up 4.3 WAR by BBRef, and has been rather butcher-like defensively. The team wants to get younger, more athletic, and better defensively. Outfield is one of the few positions of depth in the upper minors. It makes next to no sense to make a commitment to Bruce for three years.

Then again, the front office spoke about getting younger and more athletic last off-season too, and then proceeded to sign Morales and Pearce.

[Black Watch]

Dodgers decline Ethier's $17.5m club option.

[Black Watch]

Offseason outlook, as per MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-9.html

Guaranteed Contracts

Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $54MM through 2020 ($15MM club option for 2021, $4MM buyout)
Russell Martin, C: $40MM through 2019
Kendrys Morales, DH: $23MM through 2019
Lourdes Gurriel, IF/OF: $18.4MM through 2023
Marco Estrada, SP: $13MM through 2018
J.A. Happ, SP: $13MM through 2018
Steve Pearce, OF/1B: $6.25MM through 2018
Justin Smoak, 1B: $4.125MM through 2018 ($6MM club option for 2019, $250K buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
Tom Koehler (4.090) – $6.0MM
Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
Ryan Goins (3.106) – $1.8MM
Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM
Non-tender candidate: Koehler
Free Agents

Jose Bautista, Miguel Montero, Brett Anderson, Darwin Barney, Michael Saunders

Between the fifth starter opening and Sanchez’s blister concerns, the Blue Jays could have cause to add a veteran starter on a short-term deal. Jason Vargas, CC Sabathia, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister, and familiar face Brett Anderson are a few of the experienced arms available in free agency, though with Estrada and Happ both under contract for just one more year, I’d argue that Toronto could make a bigger splash for a front-of-the-rotation type. Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta seem like long shots, but the Jays have already been cited as a likely suitor for Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn is another second-tier rotation arm who would require a substantial, but not a bank-breaking multi-year contract.

Other mentioned in the post: Stephen Drew, Eduardo Nunez, Jay Bruce, Michael Brantley, Curtis Granderson, Jon Jay, and Dee Gordon

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-9.html

[Wally West]

Read on Twitter

Solid claim by the Blue Jays. I remember back in 2011 reading from a scout that said Taylor Guerrieri was the best high school arm he'd ever seen. High praise even though I'm not sure who the scout was. His velocity has since diminished from the mid to upper 90's to the low 90's but I like that we took a chance.

[Schad]

Read on Twitter

Solid claim by the Blue Jays. I remember back in 2011 reading from a scout that said Taylor Guerrieri was the best high school arm he'd ever seen. High praise even though I'm not sure who the scout was. His velocity has since diminished from the mid to upper 90's to the low 90's but I like that we took a chance.

Decent chance he becomes a good reliever, though there's an equal chance that we're merely adding him to try to sneak him through waivers before the Rule 5 draft, when roster crunch hits.

[Schad]

Given the discussions of projection systems during the year, figured I'd post the early Steamer projections for 2018:

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=14&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

The good news is that they have the offense improving (where "improving" means "scoring significantly more than the 2016 team", with the current roster). The bad news is their projections for our pitching staff are pretty ugly.

[flatjacket1]

The good news is that they have the offense improving (where "improving" means "scoring significantly more than the 2016 team", with the current roster). The bad news is their projections for our pitching staff are pretty ugly.

Our projections actually came in 203% above where we finished this year offensively, and that includes a lot of pro-rated performances (presumably due to injury) for Tulo, Travis etc, so if we stay healthy we aren't in bad shape. Note that projections don't factor in potential negative value from a lot of the bench pieces. Steamer is also notoriously hard on arms, so it's pretty across the board (other teams have similar projected issues). Not saying this is good or bad news on the projection front but it is an interesting talking point for sure.

Our biggest issue right now is a #5 starter, which in an ideal world means acquiring a middle rotation arm to bump other guys down a notch. In terms of star power, Stroman looks like he will be a strong 1st in the rotation with Sanchez still showing flashes of being a strong #2 this year (with Happ there in case things don't work out). Really if we could add a 4 ERA 200 IP guy that'd do the trick. Cobb is interesting, because of his injury history you wonder if he actually will get a serious look from the Jays because of the need for a durable innings eater. Second biggest issue is still the bullpen. We desperately need a SU man to take some pressure off Osuna and close on off days, but we do have good depth in terms of MR and LR.

In terms of third issue, it'd be nice to acquire a guy like Nunez who can play a few IF positions because the general lack of health especially up the middle. I still like Goins as a bench piece for late inning defensive replacements, but let's not see 300 PA again. I still think he has upside with the bat but this isn't the time to play around with that. Either ship him out or use him as a backup/late game defensive replacement.

I think the young OF will perform better than expected, and really anything will be an improvement over Bautista.

[Skin Blues]

By Steamer's projections, we're 6th in hitters WAR and 8th in pitchers WAR. By total WAR, the AL has a pretty clear top 4 (Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Yankees) and after that there's a handful that are bunched together interchangeably; us and the Angels, Rays, Twins, and Mariners. We'll have to be better than 2 of those 4 teams to make the playoffs. A couple teams from below will work their way up, and some from that group will be terrible and out of the race by July, but basically we have a coin toss shot at making a Wild Card game. Which is not new information, really.

[Lateral Quicks]

Second biggest issue is still the bullpen. We desperately need a SU man to take some pressure off Osuna and close on off days, but we do have good depth in terms of MR and LR.

I don't view a setup man as an urgent need. There are ample internal candidates for the job, and personally I think Leone ran away with the job last year. However, we all know relievers can fluctuate greatly year to year, so who knows.

The urgent need in the pen is a quality late inning lefty. Mayza and Dermody underwhelmed, and Loup isn't the answer. I think they'll have to upgrade via free agency or trade. McGee would be a good add.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Given the discussions of projection systems during the year, figured I'd post the early Steamer projections for 2018:

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=14&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

The good news is that they have the offense improving (where "improving" means "scoring significantly more than the 2016 team", with the current roster). The bad news is their projections for our pitching staff are pretty ugly.

Am I wrong for finding the least believable portion of those offensive projections to be Pearce and Travis both staying reasonably healthy to the tune of career highs in GPs for both of them? It could happen!

[zilby]

Jays get a Gold Glove this year, and it’s not Kevin Pillar.

Read on Twitter

[Cyrus]

Interesting article about Otani:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/rangers-yankees-twins-can-pay-otani/

FYI we can offer him 50 000 Bonus! LOL

[sule]

Given the discussions of projection systems during the year, figured I'd post the early Steamer projections for 2018:

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=14&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

The good news is that they have the offense improving (where "improving" means "scoring significantly more than the 2016 team", with the current roster). The bad news is their projections for our pitching staff are pretty ugly.

Am I wrong for finding the least believable portion of those offensive projections to be Pearce and Travis both staying reasonably healthy to the tune of career highs in GPs for both of them? It could happen!

Pearce is historically unreliable. You can scratch out at least 70 games in any given year. Sure, he's able to play multiple positions, so he can cover when someone else is out, but that still leaves at least 70 games where you have to play someone else with an even worse bat.

Still not a fan of that signing or the Morales one. Neither signing, IMO, truly made any sense given the direction this front office says they want to go.

[polo007]

Read on Twitter

[Natural11]

Read on Twitter

[I_Like_Dirt]

Pearce is historically unreliable. You can scratch out at least 70 games in any given year. Sure, he's able to play multiple positions, so he can cover when someone else is out, but that still leaves at least 70 games where you have to play someone else with an even worse bat.

Still not a fan of that signing or the Morales one. Neither signing, IMO, truly made any sense given the direction this front office says they want to go.

I don't hate either signing, to be honest. They aren't the kind of signings that interest me at this point, but I don't hate them, either. The team needs to play somebody, and if the team is going to keep payroll at a certain level and pretend like they might make the playoffs, I'd prefer they try to do it without giving up picks or prospects of any note in, which means signing other teams' free agents really doesn't hurt. Going younger? Sure, whatever, but really, anyone the Jays can get at this point isn't really the kind of long-term investment that will matter down the line, so picking up a few guys in free agency, and if you can get prospects to rehabilitate someone like Liriano all the better. It then allows for even more chances of finding a trade partner if/when things go south during the season and you're waiting on other teams to be willing to give up a prospect you like for the guys you've got. Morales really isn't the kind of player who's likely to have any trade value, I suppose, but you never know.

I'm hoping the Jays go out and sign a bunch of pitchers this offseason, because pitchers generally seem to be easier to trade for prospects when teams are trying to load up for the playoffs, and loading up on pitching invariably means the Jays bats and/or (likely and) defense will once again fail them putting them in a situation where they probably have to admit defeat on Donaldson or let him walk (they had better not pay him what he'll get on the open market).